5 Reasons the Kansas City Royals Will Be a Breakout Team in 2012

I started watching baseball as a serious fan in the late 1970's, an era when the Kansas City Royals were a perennial powerhouse and contender. One of the first games I saw in Fenway Park was against the Royals. I was excited beforehand, because it would mean getting to see George Brett and Hal McCrae, but I was also somewhat disappointed since it meant a much lower chance of actually seeing the Red Sox win. You younger fans read that right. There was a time, not really that long ago when Red Sox fans feared the tiny-market, tragically woeful Royals.    Even as an adult fan I have moments every season when I am scanning standings or box scores in the paper and I feel a jolt of surprise over just how terrible the Royals have become.  Well this is the year I think that could start to change, at least a little bit, and at least for a little while.  First of all, let's be clear: I'm not predicting that this team makes the playoffs. Unless Detroit gets whacked by a truly epic injury bug, there is no way the Royals can compete with the juggernaut Tigers. Similarly, they probably have no real hope of competing for the wild card against whoever doesn't win their division out of titans such as New York, Boston, Tampa Bay, Los Angeles and Texas. But I am predicting them to be the most exciting of the also-rans, the team that surprises almost everybody by playing surprising, winning baseball, leaving their fans feeling optimistic for the future when the season ends.  I'm predicting they will be 84-78, second place in the A.L. Central.

The Youth Movement Is Gaining Maturity

In 2011 it became evident that the Royals have developed a first-rate farm system, as four rookies broke into the starting lineup before the end of the season: Salvador Perez at catcher and Eric Hosmer, Johnny Giavotella and Mike Moustakas at first, second and third, respectively. 

Spark-plug shortstop Alcides Escobar, who led the AL in assists, is the old man of the infield at 25. 

All four of last year's rookies are projected as Opening Day starters this year and rookie Lorenzo Cain, who came over with Escobar in the Zack Greinke trade, will be given every opportunity to win the starting job in center field. 

Naturally issues might arise with a roster this dependent on youth. But the sort of teams that catch fire and surprise everybody are usually young and hungry, and most of the Royals young players have big league experience under their belts.

Eric Hosmer and Salvador Perez Look to Be Stars on the Rise

Eric Hosmer was drafted out of high school as a highly ranked, left-handed hitter with power. He developed quickly through the Royals' farm system and broke into the starting lineup at first base last May. 

His rookie campaign was pretty much everything the Royals could have hoped for. Hosmer hit 19 home runs, 27 doubles and batted .293. To become  a truly elite offensive producer he will probably need to draw more walks (34) than last year, but his relatively low strikeout total (82) indicates that he is already a relatively disciplined big league hitter. 

Hosmer's numbers for an entire season already project out impressively, and his potential upside should be huge. 

Salvador Perez debuted in August and showed some nice pop for a catcher, posting 13 extra base hits in 148 at bats for a .473 slugging average to go with a .331 batting average. He drove in 21 runs in 39 games and scored 20. 

Perez has never posted big power numbers in the minors, but he looks like he could be a very solid contact hitter in the bigs, the kind of hitter who can be counted on to come through with the knock to keep the big inning going or to bring that crucial run home.  

Alex Gordon Has Emerged, Jeff Francoeur and Billy Butler Are Solid Run Producers

The Royals took Alex Gordon as a third baseman out of the University of Nebraska with the second pick overall in the 2005 amateur draft. He debuted in 2007 and for the first few years of his major league career, his development was slow and often disappointing.

But as the Royals' everyday left fielder in 2011, Gordon emerged as a five-tool player. He batted .303 with 23 home runs, 101 runs scored, 87 runs knocked in, a .503 slugging percentage and 17 steals. On the field he won a Gold Glove at a position he has moved to as a professional.

Gordon strikes out too much (139) for a .300 average to ever be something to take for granted. But he is an outstanding athlete, and at 28 appears to have finally developed into a first-rate major league star.

Right fielder Jeff Francoeur (.285 BA, 20 HR, 87 RBI) and designated hitter Billy Butler (.291 BA, 19 HR, 95 RBI) add further depth to a Royal's lineup that should not have too much trouble scoring runs. Yuniesky Betancourt (.252  BA, 13 HR, 68 RBI) will provide some pop off the bench and a capable infield backup. 

Their Pitching Should Be Improved

The Royals' pitching is not going to wow anybody, but even here I see a lot of potential for improvement in 2012. 

Veterans Luke Hochevar (11-11, 4.68 ERA) and Bruce Chen (12-8, 3.77 ERA) would be highly valued, middle-to-back of the rotation starters on a team like the Red Sox. On the Royals they both enter this season as the potential ace. 

The rotation gained depth when the Royals traded Melky Cabrera to the Giants for Jonathan Sanchez. Nobody is going to confuse Sanchez (4-7, 4.26 ERA) with Felix Hernandez, and he might find the transition to the AL and a smaller stadium in Kansas City a challenge. But he's got experience playing for a highly successful franchise and should make the Kansas City staff better. 

To me the real wild card of the Royals' staff is Felipe Paulino. They took him off waivers from Colorado last year after he started the year going 0-4 from the bullpen. With Kansas City he put up a 4-6 record with a 4.11 ERA in 20 starts.

He averaged 8.6 strikeouts per nine innings for both the Rockies and Royals last year, but his walks per nine dropped nearly a run after K.C. picked him up and put him in the rotation (4.3 to 3.5).  He is the sort of pitcher who could ultimately crash and burn from control issues, but if he can put it together, he has big upside.

Danny Duffy (4-8, 5.64) is a weak link. His 4.34 walks per nine innings and .287 opponent batting average guarantee he will give up big innings throughout the year. Aaron Crow, who pitched well in the bullpen last year (4-4, 2.76) could find himself taking the ball every five days this year.

The Royals' bullpen could be very solid, especially if newcomer Johnathan Broxton can bounce back from an injury plagued 2011 (1-2, 5.68 ERA in 14 games for the Dodgers). Joakim Soria should be the closer again (4.03 ERA, 28 saves) with live young arms Greg Holland (5-1, 1.80 ERA, 11.10 K/9) and Louis Coleman (1-4, 2.87 ERA, 9.65 K/9) providing strong depth even if Crow moves to the rotation.  

5. They Will Play Aggressive, Inspired Baseball

The Royals have all the telltale signs of a team poised to surprise some people. They have a roster full of young and hungry players who have already acquired some significant big league experience.

They've got a little bit of pop in their lineup and plenty of speed. They will score runs and win games. Even their less than spectacular pitching staff appears to have a lot more upside than down.

If they can get hot early in the year and bank some confidence, they will keep their fans hopeful into the late-season stretch.