Can the Boston Celtics Catch the Philadelphia 76ers?

Will the Boston Celtics catch the Philadelphia 76ers to win the Atlantic Division title? Maybe a week or so ago, it might not have even made sense to ask the question. But as the Sixers lost three of their last four home games, the question pops up again. And after the Celtics beat the Bulls, the Sixers' lead is down to three-and-a-half games.

So let's look at this from several angles.

Schedule

Both teams have had a favorable ratio of home-versus-away games so far. After this weekend, the Sixers will have 15 home games and 23 road games. They will end the season with five road games. The Celtics are pretty much in the same situation with 16 home games and 24 road games.

But the Celtics have a brutal two-week stretch in March when they will play all road games, including four games in California and one in Colorado. They end the road trip with a game in Philadelphia.

To the Sixers' advantage, both of their home games with the Celtics occur after a Sixers' day off but involve the second night of a back-to-back for the Celtics. I think this last fact alone gives the schedule advantage to the Sixers.

Surviving the Condensed Season

There is a considerable age difference between the two teams. The median age of the Celtics' top eight players is 32 and the median age of the Sixers' top eight players is only 23; this is a huge difference. So we should expect the Sixers to be able to withstand the grind a little better than the Celtics.

However, we need to look at the current health status of the team. Rajon Rondo missed eight games in late January but seems to have fully recovered from the problem.

On the other hand, Spencer Hawes missed 12 of 14 games for the Sixers and his Achilles problem seems to have become chronic. He returned for two games but then missed the next two. This has left a big hole in the middle of the frontcourt as rookie Nikola Vucevic has been intimated by the league's better centers and has been overall ineffective recently.

I think these two factors pretty much balance out and I will call it a draw here.

Ability to Pull off a Trade

The Celtics would seem to lack ability to maneuver due to their salary cap issues. But the issue plagues the Sixers as well. So if neither team is able to make a major move, which one has the ability to make a "tinkering move" to plug some holes and which team has the better chips to trade?

Rumors and suggestions for each team abound. One writer suggested that the Celtics would trade Rondo to the Lakers for Pau Gasol. That doesn't seem likely to me. Another suggested that the Sixers might pick up J.R. Smith. That might make sense if it would allow the Sixers to trade one of their existing young guards to obtain an experienced big center. Another writer has argued that the Sixers cannot make a serious run without making a trade. I agree with that point and have written that the Sixers are one player short from making a serious run for the title.

So maybe this all boils down to which team wants to make a trade.

Typically, a team in contention trades away a promising young player and/or a draft pick to get an experienced player that can help them make a playoff run. In that respect, you might expect the Celtics to trade away one of their big three (Ray Allen, Kevin Garnett or Paul Pierce) to another contender to get younger and better positioned for the next few years. A move such as this would decrease their chance to catch the Sixers.

The Sixers would seem to be better positioned here because of their depth of young players that they might be able to trade to plug their hole at the center position. As Philadelphia fans well know, chances for a championship don't come along very often, so you need to grab for the gusto when you have the chance to do so.

I'm hoping that the Sixers will be able to move one of their young guards and obtain a center that would help them compete with teams like the Heat and Spurs.

On this issue, I give the Sixers a minor edge.

Performing Under Pressure Down the Stretch

Generally, this comes down to which team has the more experienced players, so we have to give the Celtics the nod on this issue.

The Bottom Line

The bottom line is that I predict that the Celtics will gradually gain ground on the Sixers, fall back a bit during their tough road trip in March, then make it very close during the last week of the season. But despite finishing with five road games, in the end, the Sixers will eke out a close Atlantic Division championship—the first since the 2000-2001 season.

With a trade for a center, they should win two rounds in the playoffs. Without such a trade, they will only win one. Either scenario will be quite an accomplishment for Doug Collins' young team.