After a Surprising Start, Can the Utah Jazz Sustain Their Success?

Prognostication is far from an exact science, and no one is proving that this year more definitively than the Utah Jazz. 

Utah was in the cellar of just about every major preseason power ranking, and a miserable first week added a few dozen cinder blocks to Utah’s already-sinking vessel, grouping them with the likes of the Washington Wizards, Charlotte Bobcats and Sacramento Kings. 

Then, something clicked.  Stagnancy was replaced with constant motion.  Lethargy was cast aside in favor of energy and determination.  Defensive confusion quickly morphed into dogged determination, intelligent play and elite defensive effort.  The metamorphosis was so sudden it seemed that a switch was flipped that rocketed Utah up power rankings everywhere 10 to 12 spots. 

There are a handful of theories floating around that try to explain Utah’s sudden success.  Was it a generally favorable and home-heavy schedule?  That may be a factor, but triumphs over quality opponents such as the Philadelphia 76ers, Denver Nuggets the Los Angeles Clippers (without Chris Paul) and the equally surprising Minnesota Timberwolves seem to refute the hypothesis that Utah’s early season success is entirely a product of a favorable schedule. 

Utah’s home court is certainly an undeniable advantage, but one of Utah’s more impressive wins (a 10-point victory in Denver that avenged a Jazz beatdown at the hands of the Nuggets earlier in the season) was on the road, and the Jazz are undefeated on the road in 2012, though that only includes two games, Denver and Golden State. 

A late-February/early March run that will have the Jazz in transit more than some flight attendants includes eight of 11 and five straight on the road.  We should have a better idea of just how much of an impact Utah’s early home-heavy schedule had on the Jazz during the ides of March. 

A noticeably improved effort, especially on the defensive end, has played a Mark Eaton-sized role in Utah’s transformation from ping-pong player to potential playoff pain in the neck.  For the effort, the smart play and the modified defensive scheme that is paying dividends, we have head coach Ty Corbin to thank. 

Corbin has proverbially brushed his shaky coaching start off his shoulder and has forcefully grabbed the attention and respect of the entire Jazz roster, and has convinced, cajoled, coerced or otherwise forced everyone from starters to the 12^th man to buy in. 

While factors out of Utah’s control such as favorable schedule and catching opponents on the right days (playing LA without Chris Paul, the Memphis Grizzlies without Zach Randolph and Milwaukee Bucks without Andrew Bogut) certainly didn’t hurt, Utah has had and will continue to have a number of challenges to overcome.  While the signings of Jamaal Tinsley and Josh Howard appear to be superb decisions thus far, Coach Corbin still has a long road ahead in terms of fully integrating his new players into his system. 

Most important is Howard, who gets much more playing time than the sparse minutes Tinsley has seen.  Howard’s promising career was derailed by several off-the-court disciplinary issues and a torn ACL.  Jazz GM Kevin O’Connor still saw enough in Howard to sign the recovering veteran to a contract, and judging by his play thus far, the Howard signing seems to prove that Mr. O’Connor’s foresight is just as sharp as everyone else’s hindsight. 

Howard’s main strength during his tenure with Utah has been the ability to create his own shot off the dribble, a quality rarely seen on the pride of the Beehive State’s roster.  However, Howard’s ability is a double-edged sword, as more often than not creating your own shot is not within the offense that Corbin runs.  Howard and Corbin will have to collaborate on a creative way to integrate Howard’s creation skills seamlessly into Utah’s pass-heavy system to utilize Howard to his full potential. 

Also a challenge to Corbin will be the delicate balance of the egos and confidence of his young players with the statistically justified allotment of playing time.  The great start by the Jazz veils the fact that Utah is still very much a team that is in flux. 

Starting point guard Devin Harris is struggling mightily to find his niche in the system and is shooting abysmally.  Gordon Hayward’s shooting numbers are coming up, but his confidence seems to have decreased since his 36-point explosion at the end of last year had Jazz fans whispering excited comparisons to another tall shooter from Indiana. 

Veterans C.J. Miles and Raja Bell have shaken off rocky starts to both put together a string of impressive games, but their ability to do that consistently is still very much in question.  Rookies Alec Burks and Enes Kanter have both provided significant contributions in scoring and rebounding, respectively, but have also had a few moments that remind you just how young they are.  Derrick Favors’ body language sometimes hints at displeasure or frustration, possibly due to lack of playing time. 

Coach Corbin and his staff are squarely in the middle of untangling that complicated knot, and will be all season.  That Utah’s success has started and continued in the midst of this bodes very well for the sustainability of the success of the Jazz.  Paul Millsap has been on a torrid pace from season’s beginning, but his season average of 16.5 points per game and 8.7 rebounds can easily be maintained, if not increased. 

Lying on that same line of logic is the biggest beacon of hope for the remainder of Utah’s season:  There are no stats, offensive or defensive, that appear to be unsustainable outliers.  Certainly, there will be ebbs and flows in Utah’s offensive production and defensive efficiency, but maintaining the level of play that the Jazz have used to obtain a successful 10-5 record is far from a pipe dream. 

If the struggling Jazz players such as Harris and Hayward can even modestly improve their level of play and consistency, the Jazz could very well make some noise in May and June.