Atlanta Hawks at Turning Point: Is It Time for a Personnel Change?

Whether or not the Atlanta Hawks have a shot at landing Dwight Howard, it's high time the team starts thinking about some changes. Their recent schedule may be mostly to blame for the Hawks dropping two of their last three, but the triple-overtime loss to the Miami Heat on Thursday night raises some questions about the team in its current form.

It's not the fact that the Hawks lost—it's how they lost. Despite facing a Miami team with no Dwyane Wade or LeBron James, the Hawks looked like the team with no stars Thursday night.

In his perpetual bid to prove he's every bit as overpaid as Rashard Lewis, Joe Johnson shot  7-for-20 and 1-for-7 from range, providing a stark reminder that he will be making nearly $25 million in 2015 (making this year's $18 million look like a bargain, if that's even possible). Not yet troubled? In his 49 minutes of play, Johnson tallied just two rebounds and three assists.

Remember, that's in 49 minutes. A player of Johnson's size guarded by bench players for 49 minutes should be able to get more than two rebounds with a blindfold on. I could go on about Johnson's inability to penetrate the paint and penchant for inadvisable shots, but seriously people: two rebounds.

Meanwhile, the rest of the Hawks looked to be exactly what they are: very good role players. Calling the TNT broadcast, Charles Barkley and company noted several times that Atlanta desperately needed a star. I'm not one for overreacting. The Hawks have been consistent the last three years, and they remain a dangerous perennial sleeper in the playoffs. And sure, they did upset the Heat in Miami on Monday night to kick off a week that would see them play the Bulls and Heat both twice (as well as five games in six nights).

But alas, it is time to overreact! Here are three reasons the Hawks should shake things up:

Have We Learned Nothing From Gilbert Arenas?

Bad contracts aren't easy to move. To rid themselves of Agent Zero's albatross of a deal, the Wizards resorted to trading for Rashard Lewis's equally stunning overpayment. It is unlikely the Hawks would be able to get much more for Joe Johnson. They might be able to snag something like Elton Brand and a prospect or two, but why would they want to do that?

The team will have one more chance to use the NBA's amnesty clause on Johnson, and they should absolutely do so and never look back. Bracketing future extensions, Kirk Hinrich's $8 million comes off the books at season's end with nearly $20 million following it a year later if the Hawks don't re-sign Josh Smith or Zaza Pachulia. Chances are Smith won't be going anywhere, but even if Atlanta signs him to a lucrative extension, a Johnson-less Hawks would still be in significantly better position to pursue young and/or dominant talent for the next couple of years. You may love Joe Johnson, but it's either this or watching the Hawks of the future slowed down by Johnson and his $25 million. When that happens (if it happens) just think about where all that money could be going.

The Current Hawks Will Get Better...But Not That Much

Optimists will point to Jeff Teague's consistently strong performance during Hinrich's recovery. The 23-year-old is averaging 11.4 points and five assists so far in his third season out of Wake Forest. Josh Smith and Al Horford are still young, too, at 26 and 25 respectively.

But, are any of these guys game-changers? Would you feel comfortable putting the ball in any of their hands down the stretch in a tight game? I wouldn't. Don't get me wrong—the Hawks front line is very good. If the Hawks can hang on to Smith and Horford, they should. It's too hard to find quality big men.

Teague may one day become a true floor general, capable of making the role players around him seem like something more. But what if he doesn't? If I were Hawks GM Rick Sund, I'd have to think long and hard about potentially including Teague in a package that brought back more of a "sure thing." There's something to be said for selling high unless a guy does something really special. With so much of Teague's game relying on a quick first step to the hoop, there's at least a decent risk he won't improve significantly into his prime.

Miami, Chicago and the Eastern Conference's Second Tier

That second tier of teams in the Eastern Conference isn't bad. The Celtics are on their way down, but potentially fierce on any given night. The Knicks could be great if they find their rhythm and play a little defense. And the Orlando Magic are always on the verge as long as Dwight Howard's still in uniform.

These are the teams with which the Hawks must compete to even have a shot at Miami and Chicago. Actually making something out of that shot is another story altogether. This season's Hawks have almost no margin for error against teams with MVP talent. Every pass must be perfect. Every defensive rotation must be on time. There will be no Rose, Wade or James to bail these Hawks out in a pinch.

Looking at this season alone, the Hawks' odds aren't that bad. It's the next two or three seasons that have to make you worry. Barring any changes, the Hawks will have to make due with non-existant cap space and late first-round draft picks. Without a stockpile of assets to trade, that's a scary thought for a team looking to keep pace as other squads improve.

There's a lot to be said for continuity. Atlanta's strong start can in part be attributed to the fact that it's working with the same core it's had for the last three years (a particular virtue given the shortened training camp).

There's also a lot to be said for taking that leap of faith and doing what it takes to push a team to the next level. With as much potential as this team has, the greedy ones of us simply must ask: How much more potential could they have? So, what would all you budding GMs out there do?