One X-Factor That Could Make Each NFL Long Shot a Playoff Contender in 2024
The NFL is a league that strives for parity, and while not every franchise has a legitimate chance of winning the Super Bowl every year, surprise contenders emerge almost annually.
A year ago, the Houston Texans, Los Angeles Rams and Tampa Bay Buccaneers defied low expectations to appear in the playoffs. All three got there after experiencing developments that most didn't see coming.
Texans quarterback C.J. Stroud had, arguably, the best rookie campaign in recent memory. Along with the culture shift provided by head coach DeMeco Ryans, it was enough to earn Houston a division title.
The Rams' veteran core of Matthew Stafford, Aaron Donald and Cooper Kupp stayed mostly healthy, while surprise rookie stars Kobie Turner and Puka Nacua became difference-makers.
In Tampa, the quarterback transition from Tom Brady to Baker Mayfield didn't yield the drop-off that most anticipated.
We could easily see another supposedly "bad team" make an unexpected run. The unknown, of course, is how it could happen.
Here, we'll examine the 10 teams with the longest Super Bowl odds—via DraftKings Sportsbook, as of Sunday—and one team-specific X-factor that could make each of them a playoff threat in 2024.
New Orleans Saints: New OC Klint Kubiak Provides a Spark
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Super Bowl Odds: +8000 (bet $100 to win $8000)
According to the odds, the New Orleans Saints are the most likely team to make a surprise run among those on our list. That's not surprising, considering they won nine games last season and lost the NFC South to Tampa via tiebreakers.
New Orleans has a fairly solid roster and finished the 2023 season ranked eighth in points allowed and ninth in scoring. Its defense is good enough to contend with the likes of the Buccaneers and Atlanta Falcons in the division, and quarterback Derek Carr is an above-average starter when at his best.
The biggest challenge for the Saints will be overcoming an offensive supporting cast that lacks reliable playmakers outside of Chris Olave and Alvin Kamara. The former was the only player to top 750 receiving yards, and the latter struggled to boost a ground game that ranked 31st in yards per carry.
The offensive line was also an issue in 2023, though first-round rookie lineman Taliese Fuaga could help settle things there. The offense could really turn the corner, though, if new offensive coordinator Klint Kubiak can replicate some of the success he had as the San Francisco 49ers' passing game coordinator last season.
Kubiak oversaw a passing attack that ranked first in net yards per attempt, and he helped turn Brock Purdy into a viable MVP candidate. While the Saints don't have the deep and talented skill group San Francisco does, he should bring some new ideas to an offense that grew stale under predecessor Pete Carmichael.
If New Orleans can maintain a top-10 scoring defense while improving its offensive efficiency—it ranked 15th in third-down conversions and 18th in red-zone conversions last season—the Saints could become division champions for the first time since 2020.
Minnesota Vikings: Teams Stars Get and Stay Healthy
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Super Bowl Odds: +8000
The Minnesota Vikings might have been a playoff team in 2023 if not for injuries. Star players like Kirk Cousins, Justin Jefferson and T.J. Hockenson all missed time, and the team struggled to field a consistent ground game.
Yet, Minnesota still won seven games and saw some defensive growth under new coordinator Brian Flores.
Cousins is gone, and Minnesota will have to get serviceable quarterback play out of rookie J.J. McCarthy and/or Sam Darnold to have a shot. But having a healthier supporting cast could make all the difference in 2024.
Jefferson missed seven games last season and watched his production drop from 1,809 receiving yards in 2022 to just 1,074—still an impressive 107.4 yards-per-game average. If the 24-year-old can stay on the field, he and 2023 first-round pick Jordan Addison could form the league's top receiver tandem.
Hockenson is coming off a torn ACL and MCL that he suffered in late December. He might not be ready for Week 1, but he could return during the early stages of the regular season.
According to The Athletic's Alec Lewis, the Pro Bowl tight end is "ahead of schedule" in his recovery.
At running back, the Vikings added former Green Bay Packers star Aaron Jones, who dealt with his own injuries (hamstring, knee) last season. However, he was a force in the playoffs, racking up 247 scrimmage yards and three touchdowns in two appearances.
On paper, the Vikings have one of the most talented offensive skill groups in the NFL, and their defense showed growth under Flores last season.
Another rash of injuries could quickly sink Minnesota's campaign. If the Vikings' top stars are available for the majority of the season, though, it will make things easier on their new quarterback and could allow the team to jump back into the playoff conversation.
Washington Commanders: Dan Quinn and Jayden Daniels Replicate Houston's 2023 Success
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Super Bowl Odds: +10000
The Washington Commanders could be poised to follow Houston's 2023 path to a turnaround.
Washington hired an experienced and defensively-minded head coach in Dan Quinn. It also added a plethora of quality veterans in free agency, including standouts such as Austin Ekeler, Bobby Wagner, Frankie Luvu and Zach Ertz.
Contending in an NFC East that features both the Dallas Cowboys and Philadelphia Eagles won't be easy. If Quinn can turn around a defense that ranked dead-last in both yards and points allowed last season, though, Washington will at least have a chance in divisional contests.
The 53-year-old comes over from Dallas, so he knows what it takes to compete against NFC East foes. He can also show his players what it takes to succeed, having previously coached the Falcons to Super Bowl LI.
For the Commanders to emerge as a playoff contender, though, it will also need quarterback Jayden Daniels to have the sort of rookie season that Stroud had in 2023. That's simpler in theory than in practice, but it's entirely possible.
The LSU product is a talented dual-threat with the traits and intangibles needed to start right away.
"Daniels has an exciting floor as a prospect. He is a veteran-like presence in the pocket, and he's far and away the best athlete in the class at the position," Derrik Klassen of the Bleacher Report Scouting Department wrote.
Between Allen, Ertz, Terry McLaurin, Jahan Dotson, Brian Robinson Jr. and rookie receiver Luke McCaffrey, the Commanders should provide Daniels with a strong supporting cast. If he can take advantage, he could have a special season.
There are a lot of variables for the Commanders, who overhauled most of the roster this offseason. However, the same could have been said for the Texans a year ago, and Houston is now among the Super Bowl favorites.
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Arizona Cardinals: Marvin Harrison Jr. Lives Up to Pre-Draft Hype
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Super Bowl Odds: +10000
The Arizona Cardinals didn't have a good first year under new head coach Jonathan Gannon in 2023. However, he was saddled with a defense devoid of talent and didn't have starting quarterback Kyler Murray for half of the season.
Arizona finished the year ranked 31st in points allowed and 24th in scoring. It did, however, show some flashes after the two-time Pro Bowler's return, notching victories over the playoff-bound Eagles and Pittsburgh Steelers.
This offseason, the Cardinals added some significant pieces to their defense, including defensive tackle Justin Jones, cornerback Sean Murphy-Bunting, rookie edge-rusher Darius Robinson and rookie corner Max Melton.
Arizona also added a few pieces to help aid Murray, including offensive tackle Jonah Williams and rookie running back Trey Benson.
However, the biggest X-factor for Arizona will be former Ohio State receiver Marvin Harrison Jr.
The No. 4 overall pick, who was the top-ranked prospect at any position on the B/R Scouting Department's final draft board, has the potential to be an instant All-Pro and the sort of No. 1 target Murray really hasn't had in the NFL.
Murray had only one full season with a healthy DeAndre Hopkins, and Harrison might have an even higher ceiling.
"Harrison is a slam-dunk prospect," Klassen wrote. "He is a twitched-up athlete with polished route-running ability and elite ball skills. It's so easy to see how his game translates right away."
If Harrison plays like he truly is the top talent in the 2024 draft class, we should see Murray return to the Pro Bowl form he last exhibited in 2021. The Cardinals made the playoffs that year, and a return to form by the signal-caller could also mean a return trip to the postseason for Arizona.
New York Giants: New DC Shane Bowen Turns Things Around
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Super Bowl Odds: +10000
Let's be honest, the New York Giants can't possibly contend in the NFC East if they don't see improved quarterback play. Daniel Jones wasn't good in 2023 before suffering a torn ACL, and neither Tommy DeVito nor Tyrod Taylor could provide stability.
Whether they get it from a healthy Jones or newcomer Drew Lock, the Giants need to have at least average production from the quarterback position.
That's pretty much what New York got from Jones as a passer in 2022, but it was enough to make the playoffs because he and Saquon Barkley forged the league's fourth-ranked rushing attack. With the running back gone, fielding a similar ground game probably isn't realistic.
The passing game could be improved, especially with the addition of rookie first-round receiver Malik Nabers, but it isn't likely to carry New York back to the postseason without an improved defense.
Under former coordinator Don Martindale, the Giants finished the 2022 season ranked 25th in total defense and 17th in points allowed. They finished last year ranked 27th and 26th in those categories, respectively.
The Giants and Martindale parted ways this offseason, and Shane Bowen was hired as the new defensive coordinator. While he rarely oversaw an elite defense with the Tennessee Titans, they never ranked in the bottom half of the league in points allowed during his tenure.
With new additions like pass-rusher Brian Burns and rookie safety Tyler Nubin, the Giants should have a better defense than they had over the last couple of seasons. If Bowen can get more out of the defensive roster than Martindale did, New York could have one of the conference's better units.
Bowen's 2021 Titans defense ranked 12th in yards allowed and sixth in points allowed. If he can get the Giants to play at a similar level, New York having a game-manager at quarterback could be enough to make another postseason push.
Las Vegas Raiders: Antonio Pierce Continues to Establish Tough, Physical Identity
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Super Bowl Odds: +10000
With a roster that featured the likes of Maxx Crosby, Davante Adams, Jakobi Meyers, Malcolm Koonce and Zamir White, the Las Vegas Raiders didn't lack talent in 2023.
What they did lack, though, was proper guidance and a cohesive identity.
At least, that was the case until Josh McDaniels was fired as head coach. in nine games with Antonio Pierce as the interim coach, Las Vegas became a tough, physical and competitive team that won five of its last nine and rattled off three divisional wins at the end of the year.
The run included an emphatic 20-14 win over the Super Bowl champion Kansas City Chiefs.
On paper, the Raiders are even more talented than they were a year ago. New additions like Christian Wilkins, Gardner Minshew II and rookie tight end Brock Bowers help give the Raiders a fairly complete roster.
The X-factor, though, will be Las Vegas' ability to win in an AFC West long dominated by Kansas City. It won't be easy, but if Pierce can keep getting the Raiders to play the brand of ball they did over the second half of 2023, it won't be impossible.
"Our resume is on the grass and is on the film," Pierce told The Rush with Maxx Crosby podcast (h/t Carter Landis of FanNation). "When we watch that, it should be that of a team that's physical, playing with extreme effort, passionate, a love for the game, playing for one another, and there's different ways to be physical."
The Raiders won eight games in 2023, narrowly missing out on a wild-card berth. An additional win or two could push Las Vegas into the postseason, give it a chance to make a run and prove that making Pierce the full-time coach was the right call.
Denver Broncos: The Gamble on Bo Nix Pays Off
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Super Bowl Odds: +12000
To be fair, the Denver Broncos may not plan to contend in 2024. They took an enormous cap hit by releasing Russell Wilson and parted with other talented players, including Jerry Jeudy and Justin Simmons, in an effort to further improve their cap situation.
This season may be all about turning the page on Wilson and the $140 million mistake of extending him.
If the Broncos do emerge as a playoff contender, though, it'll likely be because their bet on quarterback Bo Nix pays early dividends.
Selecting the Oregon product with the 12th overall pick was a bit of a reach—he was the 61st-ranked prospect on the B/R board—but without a second-round draft selection, Denver had to flip the switch early.
Now, the question is whether Nix can jell with Sean Payton better than Wilson did. The Broncos head coach essentially relegated Wilson to a game-manager role last season, and he never seemed quite comfortable putting the game in his quarterback's hands.
However, Denver showed some significant defensive improvements after coughing up 70 points to the Miami Dolphins in Week 3 and got enough offense to make a run in the middle of the season.
After a 1-5 start, the Broncos won five straight and beat playoff-bound teams in Kansas City, Green Bay, the Buffalo Bills and the Cleveland Browns.
Payton already seems to have more confidence in Nix than he did in Wilson.
"I don't want to use the term 'boring,' that's not the right term, but [he makes] pretty good decisions. With each play, the efficiency of how he's operating, and all of that," he told reporters.
The Broncos have less overall talent than a year ago, but if a belief in Nix allows Payton to fully open up "his" offense, they might find better results.
Tennessee Titans: HC Brian Callahan Proves to Be an Offensive Mastermind
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Super Bowl Odds: +15000
The Tennessee Titans had a middling defense in 2023, but their biggest liability was inconsistent quarterback play. A bad offensive line contributed to the issue, but Ryan Tannehill (78.5 QB rating) was mostly bad before giving way to Will Levis.
The rookie did show some flashes, though, and his combination of mobility and arm talent gives him a high ceiling. The question is whether the Titans can capitalize on his potential in his first full season as the starter.
New pieces like wideout Calvin Ridley, receiver Tyler Boyd and rookie tackle JC Latham should help. The X-factor will be head coach Brian Callahan.
The 39-year-old has spent the past five seasons as the Cincinnati Bengals offensive coordinator. He helped develop Joe Burrow into one of the game's top quarterbacks and helped oversee one of the NFL's most dynamic offenses.
While Burrow deserves some of the credit for Cincinnati's success, it's worth noting Callahan kept the offense going after the quarterback's season-ending wrist injury last season.
The Bengals went 4-3 with backup Jake Browning at quarterback and nearly made the postseason as a wild-card team. Of course, it's fair to wonder whether it was Callahan or head coach Zac Taylor who truly kept Cincinnati's season on the rails.
Taylor calls the plays in Cincinnati, but if it turns out Callahan was the real offensive mastermind, the Titans—and Levis—could see a significant jump in 2024.
Players like Ridley, Boyd and running back Tony Pollard should help the head coach implement his offense, and new offensive line coach Bill Callahan—Brian's father—is one of the best in the business.
Tennessee's offense still looks an average-at-best unit on paper. If Callahan can replicate the offensive success he had with the Bengals, though, the Titans will be a factor in the AFC South.
New England Patriots: Drake Maye Develops Quicker Than Expected
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Super Bowl Odds: +15000
The New England Patriots turned the page on head coach Bill Belichick this offseason, promoting veteran assistant Jerod Mayo to replace him. Obviously, his ability to lead the team will be an important factor.
However, the Patriots aren't getting back in the playoff mix unless they find a long-term answer at quarterback.
Belichick only delivered one postseason berth after the departure of Tom Brady. New England's offense was atrocious this past season—it ranked 31st overall and 30th in scoring—though its seventh-ranked defense was more than serviceable.
Mayo should keep the defense playing at its 2023 level, and even minor offensive improvement could make New England a factor in the AFC East. For the Patriots to be a real threat, though, they'll need rookie quarterback Drake Maye to develop quickly and overtake Jacoby Brissett as QB1.
Maye was the top-ranked quarterback on the B/R board, and he possesses the traits needed to be a future top-five signal-caller. However, he may need time to play with more discipline—not entirely unlike Bills quarterback Josh Allen did.
"He has the athleticism, arm talent and baseline processing skills to become a weapon at the next level. All he needs to do is cut out some of the 'doing too much' plays," Klassen wrote.
The Patriots won't rush Maye onto the field before he's ready. According to ESPN's Jeremy Fowler (h/t Bleacher Report's Mike Chiari), they are prepared to start Brissett if needed.
However, Maye is the quarterback with the talent to elevate players like Hunter Henry, DeMario Douglas, K.J. Osborn and rookie receiver Ja'Lynn Polk, If he can beat out Brissett for the starting job and become a polished signal-caller quickly, he could have New England on the fast track to contention.
The Patriots already have a playoff-caliber defense, and they should get a strong ground game out of Rhamondre Stevenson and Antonio Gibson. Maye could easily be the missing piece to the postseason puzzle.
Carolina Panthers: HC Dave Canales Works His QB Magic Once Again
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Super Bowl Odds: +25000
The NFC South remains a winnable division, but the Carolina Panthers appear to be the least likely to win it. They won a mere two games in 2023 and got borderline disastrous play from No. 1 overall pick Bryce Young.
Of course, Carolina never really put the rookie in a position to succeed. The offensive supporting cast was one of the league's worst last season, and former head coach Frank Reich didn't craft a scheme that played to Young's strengths.
The in-season firing of Reich did nothing to provide the young signal-caller with stability.
Fortunately for the Alabama product, the Panthers put some effort toward supporting him this offseason. They traded for Diontae Johnson, added Damien Lewis and Robert Hunt to the offensive line and drafted receiver Xavier Legette and running back Jonathon Brooks.
Carolina finally resembles an actual NFL squad offensively. The question is whether new head coach Dave Canales can get more out of Young than Reich or interim coach Chris Tabor did.
There are reasons to believe he can. As the Seattle Seahawks quarterbacks coach, the 43-year-old helped Geno Smith become a Pro Bowl starter in 2022. As the Buccaneers offensive coordinator last year, he helped Baker Mayfield earn his first career Pro Bowl nod.
Young has shown in the past that he can be an elite-level playmaker. The 2021 Heisman winner was superb for the Crimson Tide. While he was aided by a top-tier supporting cast in college, he regularly made dazzling plays both on- and off-script.
Canales' job will be to get the 22-year-old back to that form and to rebuild any confidence he may have lost during his lackluster rookie campaign. Based on his work with Smith and Mayfield, the coach might do just that.
And if Young can become an above-average starter, he could pair with Carolina's fourth-ranked defense to make the Panthers a force in their division.
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