Projecting the Win Totals for All 32 NFL Teams

It's Labor Day weekend. Cookouts galore. One last trip to the public pool. And the unofficial end of summer.

If summer is toast, then that means fall is here. And if fall is here, then football is here along with it.

On Wednesday, the New England Patriots and Seattle Seahawks will kick off the 2026 NFL season. For fans of all 32 teams (OK, more like 27 of them), it's a time of hope. Of optimism. And to varying degrees, of expectations.

Of course, whether those expectations are reasonable or not is another matter. Granted, every year teams surprise (for better or worse) just as the Patriots did in going from worst to first and a Super Bowl berth in 2025. But for every team who explodes into the playoffs or falls apart, there are two who get a little better—or a little worse.

We're going to check the temperature on those expectations here. Using the Over/Under totals at FanDuel as our thermometer, we're going to examine which teams are going to exceed expectations. Which ones will fail to meet them.

And predict all 32 teams' records while we're at it.

AFC East

AP Photo/Kirk Irwin

Bills QB Josh Allen

Buffalo Bills: OVER 10.5 Wins

This is one of the easier calls to make in the entire NFL—the last time the Bills failed to hit the 11-win mark was the 10-6 record the team posted in Josh Allen's second season in 2019.

The Bills added a high-end wide receiver for Allen in D.J. Moore. James Cook is the reigning rushing champ. The Buffalo defense ranked seventh in the league last year and remains mostly intact.

As good as the Patriots were last year, the Bills should be the favorites in the AFC East.

Projected Record: 12-5

Miami Dolphins: UNDER 4.5 Wins

Folks, the Miami Dolphins are a hot mess.

This is a team that purged most of its offensive talent in the offseason outside of running back De'Von Achane. A team with a quarterback in Malik Willis who showed promise in Green Bay—but was a trainwreck in Tennessee. The offense looked offensive most of the offseason.

There is some young talent on defense—but also significant issues on the defensive line and in the secondary.

When the 2027 NFL Draft kicks off in Washington next April, the Dolphins may well be on the clock.

Projected Record: 2-15

New England Patriots: OVER 9.5 Wins

The Patriots are the reigning AFC champions, but this relatively low win total indicates a level of skepticism that New England can repeat its 2025 success playing a first-place schedule instead of a historically easy one.

Still, the Patriots have an excellent young quarterback in Drake Maye. The offense got better at wide receiver with the acquisition of A.J. Brown. And while there are questions on the edge defensively, this is a unit that was eighth in the league in 2025.

The Pats may well regress. But they aren't going to regress that much.

Projected Record: 11-6

New York Jets: UNDER 5.5 Wins

It has been a while since Jets fans saw a winner—the team's last winning season came all the way back in 2015.

That depressing streak isn't going to end in 2026.

There are reasons for at least some optimism—if No. 2 overall pick David Bailey is the real deal, the New York defense should be improved. But there are just far too many questions on offense outside of wide receiver Garrett Wilson and Breece Hall.

The Geno Smith era will be short. And not fun.

Projected Record: 5-12

NFC East

AP Photo/Matt Rourke

Eagles RB Saquon Barkley

Dallas Cowboys: OVER 9.5 Wins

Last year the Dallas Cowboys had one of the NFL's most prolific offenses—and a defense that couldn't cover a wall with paint.

That defense is going to determine how far Dallas gets in 2026.

There are new starters at all three levels, whether it's Rashan Gary up front, Dee Winters or Jaishawn Barham at linebacker or Caleb Downs and Jalen Thompson at safety.

That defense isn't going to suddenly morph into the '85 Bears. But it should be improved enough to get Dallas to 10 wins and a Wild Card spot.

Projected Record: 10-7

New York Giants: OVER 7.5 Wins

This is something of a tricky one.

On one hand, if the young talent in New York can stay healthy and takes a step forward in 2026, the Giants could be a tough out. Jaxson Dart, Cam Skattebo and Malik Nabers are an exciting young trio on offense. Edge-rusher Abdul Carter came on strong late last season. Rookie linebacker Arvell Reese has the potential to be a difference-maker.

However, there is also a lot that can go wrong in the Big Apple, the team still has multiple question marks and New York has had two winning seasons over the last decade.

They won't get one this year either. But they will still clear this number—barely.

Projected Record: 8-9

Philadelphia Eagles: OVER 10.5 Wins

The Eagles have won the NFC East three of the last four seasons, making a pair of Super Bowl trips along the way. But the team faces more questions than usual in 2026.

With A.J. Brown now catching passes in New England, can DeVonta Smith step up and be a true "alpha" wide receiver? With edge-rusher Jonathan Greenard hurt, can youngster's like Jalyx Hunt and Nolan Smith anchor the Philly pass-rush?

There are viable questions as to whether the Eagles can hang with the NFC's best. But they are still the class of the division.

Projected Record: 11-6

Washington Commanders: UNDER 7.5 Wins

The Washington Commanders went from the penthouse to the outhouse in 2025, following up a trip to the NFC Championship Game with an injury-marred five-win campaign.

That the injury bug has already taken a chunk out of the team in 2026 with the loss of Pro Bowl tackle Laremy Tunsil isn't a great sign.

The Commanders made an effort to get better on both sides of the ball, whether it's the likes of running back Rachaad White and wide receiver Stefon Diggs on offense or edge-rusher Odafe Oweh and rookie linebacker Sonny Styles on defense.

But the offensive line and a shaky run game will be Washington's undoing.

Projected Record: 7-10

AFC North

AP Photo/Jeff Dean

Bengals WR Ja'Marr Chase

Baltimore Ravens: UNDER 11.5 Wins

The times they are-a-changing in Baltimore. After missing the playoffs last season, the ravens sent head coach John Harbaugh packing. The team also spent big for edge-rusher Trey Hendrickson to bolster a pass rush that was among the league's worst in 2025.

Jesse Minter's team is a good one. Quarterback Lamar Jackson. Running back Derrick Henry. Linebacker Roquan Smith. Safety Kyle Hamilton. All are legitimate stars. The Ravens are absolutely contenders not only in the AFC North but the conference as a whole.

But the Ravens play in one of the league's toughest divisions, and Baltimore has cleared 11 wins just twice over the last six seasons.

Projected Record: 11-6

Cincinnati Bengals: OVER 9.5 Wins

The Cincinnati Bengals are the Dallas Cowboys of the AFC.

Even with Joe Burrow banged up last year, the Bengals moved the ball with regularity. But the defense made tissue paper look tough, and Cincinnati missed the playoffs for the third straight year.

That defense has been overhauled, with defensive tackle Dexter Lawrence the centerpiece of a bevy of personnel moves. If the Bengals can get even average play out of that defense and the offensive line holds up, the Bengals could do more than just make the playoffs, And do more than win the AFC North.

The Bengals can make it all the way to SoFi Stadium and Super Bowl LXI.

Projected Record: 12-5

Cleveland Browns: UNDER 6.5 Wins

There isn't a number on this list this writer would smash more than the "under" on Cleveland—and I say that as a lifelong Browns fan.

Yes, the Browns re-tooled an offensive line that struggled last year in the offseason. The addition of wide receivers KC Concepcion and Denzel Boston injected some badly-needed talent into the passing attack. And even with edge-rusher Myles Garrett gone, the Browns should still field an above-average defense.

But the Browns also have arguably the worst quarterback situation in the NFL. Deshaun Watson is a has-been. Shedeur Sanders is a never-was.

And it's going to be another long season at The Factory of Sadness.

Projected Record: 4-13

Pittsburgh Steelers: OVER 7.5 Wins

It's the start of a new era in the Steel City. And the end of an old one.

The Steelers have a new head coach for the first time in a long time, with Mike McCarthy replacing Mike Tomlin. Pittsburgh also has an old quarterback in Aaron Rodgers, who has already announced that the 2026 season will be his last.

The Steelers have veteran talent on both sides of the ball. They are the defending AFC North champions. The team hasn't had a losing record since 2003.

Is Pittsburgh a Super Bowl contender? No.

But they'll clear 7.5 wins—with relative ease.

Projected Record: 9-8

NFC North

AP Photo/Ryan Sun

Lions EDGE Aidan Hutchinson

Chicago Bears: UNDER 9.5 Wins

The Bears experienced quite a turnaround last year—after winning just five games in 2024, the Bears went 11-6 and won the NFC North in 2025.

Now, there's enthusiasm in Chicago—and expectations. Expectations that the Bears will not only make the playoffs but make a run in them. That young quarterback Caleb Williams will become a legitimate star in his third season.

The offense should be formidable. But there are questions at all three levels of the Chicago defense, especially up front. In a meat-grinder of a division, that defense is going to leave Bears fans disappointed this year.

Projected Record: 9-8

Detroit Lions: OVER 10.5 Wins

The Lions are looking to rebound in 2026. Two years ago, the Lions won 15 games and were the NFC's No. 1 seed. Last year, the team lost three of their last four games and missed the playoff altogether.

Offensively, Detroit has an assemblage of talent that rivals any in the NFL, and the Lions have a solid veteran quarterback in Jared Goff. In players like edge-rusher Aidan Hutchinson and linebacker Jack Campbell, there's young talent on defense.

There are potential issues in the defensive backfield, and those issues are going to cost the Lions a couple of wins this year. But the Lions will still be good enough to win the NFC North and get back into the postseason tournament.

Projected Record: 11-6

Green Bay Packers: UNDER 9.5 Wins

This one will send some eyebrows skyward after the Packers made the playoffs last year, but Green Bay did so as a 9-7-1 football team that lost four in a row to close the regular season.

That slide is going to continue in 2026.

Offensively, there are major questions on the ground after veteran running back Josh Jacobs landed on the Commissioner's Exempt List. With Micah Parsons opening the season on the PUP list, Green Bay could also struggle mightily to pressure opposing quarterbacks.

It's been a while since Green Bay was a last-place team. But for the first time in the 21st century, it's going to happen in 2026.

Projected Record: 7-10

Minnesota Vikings: OVER 8.5 Wins

Whether the Minnesota Vikings clear 8.5 wins and/or make the playoffs in 2026 will depend largely on one person—quarterback Kyler Murray.

Murray has an excellent trio of wide receivers at his disposal in Justin Jefferson, Jordan Addison and Jauan Jennings. The ground game and offensive line aren't great, but they are capable. Brian Flores runs an aggressive defense in the Twin Cities that has talent at all three levels in Dallas Turner, linebacker Blake Cashman and safety Josh Metellus.

We have seen Kevin O' Connell resurrect one quarterback's career in Sam Darnold. This year O' Connell will work his magic again with Murray and the Vikings will win 10 games.

Whether that will good enough for a playoff spot is another matter.

Projected Record: 10-7

AFC South

AP Photo/Phelan M. Ebenhack

Jaguars QB Trevor Lawrence

Houston Texans: OVER 9.5 Wins

On one hand, the Houston Texans head into the 2026 season with one of the best defenses in the game—a unit that is loaded from front to back, including maybe the best edge-rusher duo in the league.

On the other hand, there are questions on offense. Quarterback C.J. Stroud imploded in the playoffs. There's a new lead running back in David Montgomery. And a new wide receiver in Kayshon Boutte after Jayden Higgins was lost to a torn ACL.

That defense will keep the team in games on a weekly basis. The Texans will win more games than they lose.

But Houston isn't a real Super Bowl threat.

Projected Record: 10-7

Indianapolis Colts: UNDER 7.5 Wins

Last year was a tale of two seasons in Indianapolis. The team got off to a white-hot start, winning eight of 10 games ahead of the bye week. But then quarterback Daniel Jones tore his Achilles, and the team didn't win another game the rest of the way.

Jones is supposed to be ready for Week 1, but he's not the only uncertainty on offense. New No. 1 wide receiver Alec Pierce missed most of the summer. Tight end Tyler Warren is banged-up.

The injuries extend to the defense—a defense that was already looking at starting two rookies in 2026.

There are just too many unanswered questions for the Colts this season. Too many things that can go wrong—especially if Jones can't recapture last year's level of play.

Projected Record: 7-10

Jacksonville Jaguars: OVER 9.5 Wins

While the Colts were falling apart down the stretch last year, the Jaguars were doing the opposite, posting eight straight wins to close the season 13-4 and win the AFC South.

There are admittedly some reasons for concern in Duval County this year. Linebacker Devin Lloyd and running back Travis Etienne both played major roles for the team last year. Both are gone—and the team didn't make and major moves to replace them.

Trevor Lawrence is coming off the best season of his career at the helm of a loaded passing attack. Jacksonville's defense was the toughest in the league to run on last year.

Even if the Jags take a step back, they are still the class of the division.

Projected Record: 11-6

Tennessee Titans: UNDER 6.5 Wins

It has been a dark time in Tennessee of late—in each of the past two years, the team has gone 3-14. Now, Robert Saleh has come to Nashville to try to reverse that futility.

How the 2026 season goes will be largely determined by Cam Ward's progress in his second professional season. The first was uneven, although there's a new No. 1 wideout in Tennessee in rookie Carnell Tate.

The Titans defense could also be an issue after ranking outside the top-20 in total defense a year ago. For all Saleh's prowess as a defensive coordinator, the personnel on that side of the ball for the Titans isn't scaring anyone.

There will be progress—but digging out of this hole will take time.

Projected Record: 5-12

NFC South

AP Photo/Doug Murray

Buccaneers WR Emeka Egbuka

Atlanta Falcons: UNDER 7.5 Wins

The Atlanta Falcons are headed toward a rough season.

With Michael Penix Jr. rehabbing an ACL tear, the team signed Tua Tagovailoa as a stopgap starter at quarterback. But Tagovailoa has been so God-awful this summer that now the team may have little recourse but to roll Penix out if he's anywhere close to ready.

Meanwhile, on defense the team that led the NFC in sacks last year has been devastated on the edge. James Pearce Jr. will miss the first eight games due to a personal conduct policy suspension. Jalon Walker will miss the entire season after tearing his ACL in the offseason.

It's going to be a long year.

Projected Record: 5-12

Carolina Panthers: OVER 7.5 Wins

Settle down—this doesn't mean the Panthers will be good.

Yes, the Panthers were the "champions" of the NFC South last year. But the team "won" the division with just eight victories—and it's hard to see where marked progress is going to come from.

Bryce Young showed some improvement under center last year, but no one's mentioning him with Josh Allen anytime soon. The passing game weapons are—OK. The ground game is a question mark—as is just about every level of the defense.

This is a mediocre team that will win ugly and hover around .500 most of the year before missing the playoffs.

Projected Record: 8-9

New Orleans Saints: OVER 7.5 Wins

The New Orleans Saints haven't won 10 games or made the postseason since 2020—the last time they won the division.

New Orleans has a good shot to knock out at least two of the three in 2026.

Quarterback Tyler Shough wasn't great as a rookie, but he got better as the season wore on. The addition of running back Travis Etienne should give the ground game a boost. The Saints also added a veteran presence in the middle of the defense in linebacker Kaden Elliss after fielding a top-10 defense last season.

The Saints won't be a juggernaut, but they will do enough to win the NFC South.

Projected Record: 9-8

Tampa Bay Buccaneers: UNDER 8.5 Wins

Prior to last season, the Tampa Bay Buccaneers had made the playoffs five straight seasons. But after a 6-2 start to the season, Tampa fell apart over the season's second half—just two wins the rest of the year.

That was a harbinger of things to come.

There are multiple potential issues on offense, whether it's the skill positions, the O-Line or even the future of quarterback Baker Mayfield with the team. Tampa's defense ranked in the bottom half of the league last year in points allowed and doesn't look a bit better on paper in 2026.

If early losses start piling up, things could get ugly in Tampa by Halloween.

Projected Record: 7-10

AFC West

AP Photo/Peter Aiken

Chiefs LB Nick Bolton

Denver Broncos: OVER 9.5 Wins

The Denver Broncos had the best record in the AFC last year. If quarterback Bo Nix didn't break his ankle in the playoffs, the Broncos may well have represented the conference in Super Bowl LX.

They may well in 2026.

It starts with Denver's defense, which is among the league's best. The loss of edge-rusher Jonathon Cooper is a blow, but the Broncos are not going to be an easy team to score on.

Bo Nix appears to be 100 percent entering the league, and the Broncos gave him a shiny new toy in the passing game in wide receiver Jaylen Waddle.

There aren't many weaknesses in the Mile High City.

Projected Record: 12-5

Kansas City Chiefs: UNDER 10.5 Wins

The Chiefs have been the AFC's most consistently dominant teams over the past decade—last year's 6-11 finish was the first time the team didn't win the AFC West since all the way back in 2015.

That dominance is reflected in this number. But it's also a tall ask.

Patrick Mahomes will start Week 1, but he's working back from an ACL tear and may not be 100 percent for a while. The entire Kansas City offense has been pedestrian as often as not the past two years, and with Travis Kelce all but certainly entering his final season the passing attack could again struggle to challenge defenses vertically.

The Chiefs are too good to post another sub-.500 season. But expecting a juggernaut is, again, a tall ask.

Projected Record: 10-7

Las Vegas Raiders: OVER 5.5 Wins

Let's hear it for low expectations!

The city they play in may not have high expectations for the Raiders in 2026, but don't tell fans that—Fernando-Mania is sweeping through the fanbase after the Raiders drafted Indiana quarterback Fernando Mendoza first overall this year,

It will be Kirk Cousins under center to start the season, and he'll lead an offense that includes running back Ashton Jeanty, tight end Brock Bowers and—that's it. The offensive line should be better, but that doesn't mean they will be good.

The defense still has edge-rusher Maxx Crosby, and the Raiders spent a ton on adding free agents on that side of the ball. That defense will be improved this season, but there's a lot of room for it.

Baby steps, Raider Nation. Baby steps.

Projected Record: 6-11

Los Angeles Chargers: OVER 9.5 Wins

The Los Angeles Chargers are one of the better teams in the league no mentioned a lot as one of the better teams in the league.

It's a team that could do real damage this season. Justin Herbert may not be an elite quarterback, but he isn't far off. The Chargers fielded one of the league's best defenses last year—the Chargers were a top-10 defense across the board and a top-five defense in terms of yards allowed.

But the same issue that plagued the Bolts last year threatens to do them again in 2026—the offensive line. A year ago, it was the tackles. This year, it's the interior of the offensive line that's the problem.

Projected Record: 10-7

NFC West

AP Photo/Ashley Landis

Rams DT Aaron Donald

Arizona Cardinals: UNDER 4.5 Wins

Not sure what's worse—the meager win total that was set for the Over/Under for the Cardinals this year or the fact that I'm pretty confident the under is going to hit.

There just isn't a lot to like about this team. The quarterback is a journeyman backup. Arizona has a pair of young skill-position players who were drafted in the top-five in recent years—one enters the season hurt, while the other has disappointed over his first two seasons.

The defense allowed the sixth-most yards and fourth-most points per game last year, and outside edge-rusher Josh Sweat and safety Budda Baker, it's a who's who of "Who?"

Arizona is absolutely in play for the first pick in 2027.

Projected Record: 3-14

Los Angeles Rams: OVER 11.5 Wins

There is one path to Rams failing to win 12 games. Just one. Like Dr. Strange and Thanos.

Catastrophe.

The Rams just made the NFC Championship Game on the back of an offensive buzzsaw led by a quarterback who was named the NFL's Most Valuable Player. But the defense let them down at the end.

So, the team took steps.

The Rams traded for a Pro Bowl cornerback in Trent McDuffie. Added the reigning Defensive Player of the Year in another trade for edge-rusher Myles Garrett. Then three-time DPOY Aaron Donald came out of retirement, because overkill.

If the Rams don't win Super Bowl LXI, the season will have been a failure. That's where the bar is now.

Projected Record: 13-4

San Francisco 49ers: UNDER 10.5 Wins

Generally speaking, it's folly to write off the San Francisco 49ers—despite being shredded by injuries in 2025, the Niners went 12-5 last year and won a playoff game.

Do it anyway—because at some point San Francisco's luck is going to run out.

The team is already dealing with multiple banged-up players expected to play big roles on both sides of the ball. That includes running back Christian McCaffrey, who is certain to regress after an NFL-high 413 touches a year ago.

San Francisco's two best defensive players (edge-rusher Nick Bosa and linebacker Fred warner) are both coming off major injuries. So is tight end George Kittle. The schedule in December is rough.

The 49ers won't be a bad team in 2026. But a backslide is coming.

Projected Record: 9-8

Seattle Seahawks: OVER 10.5 Wins

The Seattle Seahawks don't look like the best team in the NFL on paper. They may not be the fifth-best team in the league on paper.

But the Seahawks are also the defending Super Bowl champions—because games are not played on paper.

Seattle isn't without its issues, whether it's a potential lack of depth in the secondary or questions at running back with Kenneth Walker gone and Zach Charbonnet on injured reserve to open the season.

But the Seahawks took steps to address those issues in the offseason, and last year at least Seattle was a team where the whole was greater than the sum of its parts.

The champs are good for 11 wins—at least.

Projected Record: 12-5