A Shaky Bullpen Could Determine the Red Sox Fate in the AL East

With the possibility of an added Wild-Card team beginning this upcoming season, it would seem unthinkable that the Red Sox would not be a part of the 2012 MLB postseason. Bud Selig’s newly derived playoffs would come with a hurdle all teams would like to avoid, the one-game playoff. To do this, Boston will have to take back the AL East from rival New York. To do that, they will have to lean heavily on what could be a shaky bullpen.

Getting the late innings of a ballgame locked down is essential. Bailey fits that mold with his 94-95 mph fastball, but those thinking he will be a top-tier closer might want to temper their expectations. The career numbers look good with 75 saves, 2.07 ERA, 0.95 WHIP and .185 BA against.

A closer look into his home/road splits shows a fly-ball pitcher. Leaving spacious Oakland for Fenway might prove more difficult than expected. Although his road ERA is better (1.96 to 2.17), the numbers reverse dramatically when xFIP is applied: 2.61 home to 4.27 away. The K/9 rate drops from 10.45 to 7.40 and the BB/9 jumps from 1.87 to 3.27. Even during his 2009 ROY campaign the splits are dramatic; home K/9 went from 12.23 to 7.71 on the road, BB/9 increased 1.85 to 3.25 and an xFIP of 2.11 to 4.15.

“If healthy” might be the two most common words used to describe Bailey, but it’s not the only concern Red Sox fans should have.

It seemed obvious from the moment the Mark Melancon trade was approved that GM Ben Cherington was not committed to him being the 9^th inning guy and for good reason. A move from the NL Central to the American League would seem difficult enough, but landing in the highly intense AL East makes the transition even tougher.

Melancon’s eight wins, 20 saves and 2.78 ERA look good on the surface, but that was mostly NL Central competition. During his seven games vs. the American League, the numbers borderline on disturbing; the AL had a slash line of .351/.467/.595 with a K/BB of 8:8.

The teams faced in those seven games will be the chief competition during a playoff run: Texas Rangers (three games), Toronto Blue Jays (two) and the Tampa Bay Rays (one). The other was vs. the Red Sox, whom he won’t have to face, but have a lineup that can be compared to the Yankees.

The 2011 WAR for Bailey (0.9) and Melancon (0.8) combined were just barely over half of the 3.0 Jonathan Papelbon produced last season. It has been well publicized that Bailey is a young, cheap and controllable option, which Papelbon is not. The front office doesn’t have to look any further than last season’s free-agent signing of Carl Crawford to realize the Red Sox faithful don’t care how cheap or expensive a player is if the AL East is lost to the Yankees.

It appears Daniel Bard will get every chance in spring training to prove he is a starter and unless another SP is signed soon, it is also likely that Alfredo Aceves will be stretched out for the rotation. Bobby Jenks’ status to the team is up in the air as he recovers from a pulmonary embolism. So the proverbial hat will be hung on Bailey and Melancon to succeed.

Although there will be some gut-wrenching late innings, expect Bailey to be effective enough to convert the necessary save opportunities. Also, expect Cherington to be looking for another set-up man as Melancon will fail to hold up his part of the bargain.