Yu Darvish Will Have Expectations That Are Impossible to Meet

The rumor-mills are again going strong. Yu Darvish, Japan’s biggest and brightest star, has certainly created a firestorm over the past month. And why shouldn’t he? He is the best pitcher on the planet not playing in North America and has the numbers to prove it:

2011 stats - 18-6 with a 1.44 ERA and 276 strikeouts in 232 innings. 

Since joining the Nippon Ham Fighters in 2005 as an 18-year-old, Darvish has completed 55 of 167 starts, thrown 18 shutouts, posted a WHIP of 0.985 in 1,268 innings and has 93 wins against 38 losses. Hold on, almost forgot he has a career 1.99 ERA. 

Nippon has until 5 p.m. on Tuesday to make a decision to accept and announce the winning bid, which, apparently, the Toronto Blue Jays are the front-runners to win. $51 million-plus is the estimated amount—a bid that was higher than what was offered to Daisuke Matsuzaka, who was the last great pitcher to come out of Japan. 

That is where the problem lies. It is a huge risk to offer that amount of money for someone unproven in the North American game. Darvish has been utterly dominant in the NPB, but the bright lights of the MLB are a completely different world. 

In a recent article on SI.com, it has been suggested that the caliber of hitters in the NPB are not up to par with what is seen in MLB. That translates into inflated statistics, and with a small sample size to compare to,a true indication of whether Darvish will be successful is unclear.

But, because Darvish’s abilities are so far beyond what can be compared, there’s no telling what can be expected. 

The winning bid is only the right to negotiate; it does not guarantee that he will sign, which makes this even a bigger gamble.

However, the scouts and other personnel have obviously done their homework. They know that this kid has some real talent and can get his fastball up to a reported 95 mph.

If Darvish is the real deal, how come the Yankees and Red Sox no longer have their hats in the ring? 

Marc Carig, of the The Newark Star-Ledger, provided an update on the Yankees bid, which was posted on HardballTalk.

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The Yankees submitted a bid. But the only way they can emerge with Darvish is if it proves to be the highest on the table, and the person with knowledge said the Yankees’ bid will not be high enough to top those they believe were submitted by a pair of American League rivals, the Rangers and Blue Jays.

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“A ridiculous number,” the person with knowledge said while declining to offer exact figures.

Perhaps the Yankees did not want to get burned again, as they have in the past with other can’t-miss prospects like Igawa and Irabu. 

Tuesday afternoon will be interesting nonetheless. Will the Jays win the bid? Has Alex Anthopoulos pulled a rabbit out of his hat?

I’m not sure, and I’m also not sure if I am sold on this guy. So much hype has been placed on new draft picks, up-and-comers and, now, Darvish that he will have to be out of this world to live up to what the reports are saying. 

For $50 million-plus, he better be.

Devon is the founder of The GM’s Perspective

Devon is a former professional baseball player with the River City Rascals and Gateway Grizzlies and is now an independent scout.