Albert Pujols to Los Angeles Angels: 25 Predictions for His 10-Year Deal

Albert Pujols is a Los Angeles Angel of Anaheim. That much we know. After signing his 10-year, $254 million contract last week, Pujols joins a team suddenly slated for an Opening Day payroll well above $150 million in 2012.

Fans and pundits expect World Series rings. They expect MVP awards. They expect milestones. The question is, can Pujols deliver?

Strictly speaking, it's hard to imagine a $254 million return on this $254 million investment. Even accounting for inflation, Pujols will probably give back $205 million in on-field production. He could, however, be worth more than the difference if he comes through on certain other fronts. Here are 25 points to come in the timeline of this contract.

February 2012: Angels Report to Spring Training Without Kendrys Morales

Angels GM Jerry Dipoto told MLB.com his team will still tender a contract to Morales, who is injured, arbitration-eligible and a first baseman.

That makes fine sense. It would be foolish to throw away a player who can be an asset like Morales can. Last time he was healthy, the switch-hitter had 34 home runs and 43 doubles as the Angels' regular first baseman.

It would also be foolish, though, to leave holes in their roster in the name of keeping such a player. Morales could fetch a good price if a team is looking to take a risk, possibly helping the Angels fill out their starting rotation or earning them a prospect who can have an impact in a year or two.

One way or another, Pujols' arrival spells the end of the strange saga of Morales and the Angels.

March 2012: Sports Illustrated and ESPN Pick the Angels to Win the World Series

It's inevitable. Not only is the story downright drool-inducing, but this team looks stacked. Aside from Pujols, C.J. Wilson now becomes part of a pitching foursome as fearsome as any but a few in baseball. Co-aces Dan Haren and Jered Weaver will make that group very formidable.

Athletic fielders will dot the landscape each time those men toe the mound. The bullpen is improved, however modestly, by the addition of LaTroy Hawkins.

Pujols adds needed thunder to the lineup. This is a team much in need of a true slugger, and the narrative is easy to write from there. The Angels will be media darlings as the season kicks off.

April 2012: Mike Trout Goes to Triple-A to Begin 2012 Season

Another casualty of Pujols' signing could be Mike Trout, who will have a tough time fitting into an outfield picture that now seems to include Mark Trumbo.

Even if Trumbo never takes the field, he could clog the path to a big-league role for Trout by taking up playing time at DH and forcing Torii Hunter and Vernon Wells to be full-time outfielders.

August 2012: Right-Handed Pitching Undoes the Angels

Pujols is great. He's a tremendous slugger. He helps this lineup in a dozen ways. Unfortunately, though, he bats right-handed and therefore doesn't help the Angels solve their greatest systemic problem: They are already a lineup without balance.

Pujols will be surrounded, in some order, by Torii Hunter, Vernon Wells, Howie Kendrick and Chris Iannetta, who all bat right-handed. So do Mark Trumbo and Peter Bourjos. So does Mike Trout.

Last season, the Angels were an above-average lineup against left-handed pitching and a below-average offense against right-handers. Wells nicely illustrates the point: His OPS against southpaws (.851) last season was nearly .300 higher than the same figure against righties.

It will catch up to them.

October 2012: The Angels Miss the Playoffs by Fewer Than Three Games

Though the Angels are sexier and their roster is shaped more the way many people think a winning team should be shaped, the Texas Rangers remain the deepest and best team in the AL West.

Assuming they find an arm to replace Wilson and at least consider Prince Fielder, the Rangers will win over the course of 162 games because their team is better rounded.

The race will come down to the final days. Fans will flock to Angel Stadium. Pujols will be beloved despite the bitter ending to the season. The year will be viewed as a setback, but it will provide motivation.

November 2012: Pujols Wins AL MVP

Here are my projected figures for Pujols in 2012:

Batting Avg.	On-Base Percentage	Slugging Avg.	Home Runs	WAR
.310	.379	.554	38	5.9

Those are terrific numbers, the kind of which even the great Pujols can be proud. Though the Angels' season will end in disappointment, Pujols' individual campaign will end at another podium. For the record, I have his performance being worth $26.55 million in year one.

December 2012: The Angels Will Spend Money Next Winter Too

Miffed by the misfire of the first year in the inaugural season of the Pujols administration, the Angels will head back to the market in 2012.

Torii Hunter's contract will come off the books after the season. Ditto that of Bobby Abreu. The extra $27 million that is liberated might go mostly to raises for players on back-loaded contracts and in arbitration, but it will prevent those raises from cutting at all into the MASSIVE new profits promised by the Angels' new television rights deal.

The bullpen is still a question mark. Howie Kendrick will need to be re-signed. Josh Hamilton, injury-prone though he may be, would be the smart sign because he would bring a substantial left-handed presence to the lineup.

Late April 2013: Pujols Cracks 500th Career Double

Let the milestone parade begin!

Doubles are underrated. Without a substantial number of them, even 40 home runs can be a thin power profile. Ask David Justice.

Pujols, though, has always been just as good at slicing the gaps and pinballing pitches off the wall as he has been at hitting balls out of the park. To date, he has 10 more career doubles (455) than homers (445). 

Signing in Anaheim kept Pujols in a park friendlier to doubles than to homers, so he remains tenuously on pace to break the all-time doubles record of 792. This is the first step.

June 2013: Pujols Hits 500th Career Home Run

It might look something like this. Pujols will swat his 500th homer sometime in his second season with Anaheim, probably short of its middle.

With both the Ballpark at Arlington and Minute Maid Park regular parts of his schedule, Pujols has some of his favorite targets forever in range. Getting to 500 will be a breeze, and it will be boring. How much farther will he go? Stay tuned.

August 2013: Pujols Reaches 1,500 RBI

Not a bad season, eh?

Once he reaches this benchmark, Pujols will become the 11th member of the 500-500-1,500 club (2B-HR-RBI). He will do it, assuming that my projections are right and that his given age is reliable, at age 33. That's a wild achievement, one worthy of note.

The RBI are also a point of interest in and of themselves because Pujols has an outside shot at that record too.

October 2013: Angels Win World Series

Yes, it's going to happen. In the second year of the new era, with Pujols, Weaver, Haren, Wilson and Mike Trout all in tow and at the peak of their powers, these Angels will win the World Series and bring Pujols his third ring.

Trout will take home Series MVP honors, but here are the numbers I have for Pujols in the postseason:

G	14
PA	70
BB	14
2B	4
HR	4
AVG	.363
OBP	.486
SLG	.514

Worthy of his ring, to be sure. It will be the perfect end to a season that might have Angels fans dreaming of a dynasty.

November 2013: Pujols Wins Last Gold Glove

Age steals defensive value. It's inevitable. Luckily, then, Pujols has never derived a large portion of his value from his glove, and anyway, he was so good relative to his competition as a fielding first baseman that age (at least briefly) will keep him down only so much.

These numbers will do more to ensure Pujols get the Gold Glove than his actual defensive play:

Batting Avg.	On-Base Percentage	Slugging Avg.	Home Runs	WAR
.297	.394	.551	33	5.4

That production, even after accounting for the defense, doesn't live up to a $25.4 million salary. Its raw worth is $24.3 million. The World Series, though, will be a major revenue booster.

April-May 2014: Pujols Misses His First Significant Time with Injury

A broken wrist sidelined Pujols for only 15 games in 2011. How can this man be stopped?

Injuries, though, are often the result of luck. Pujols has had good luck recovering from them, and luck often evens out. In year three of his mega-deal, Pujols will miss the first six weeks due to an injury to his legs. When he returns, he will split his time between first base and DH, the better to protect the Angels' most expensive commodity.

October 2014: Angels Reach Playoffs Again, Do Not Win Pennant

As did Joe Mauer in 2009, Pujols will rest up the first six weeks of the season and then come out swinging and destroy the league for 500 plate appearances.

He'll lead the Angels to the playoffs, though they'll find an opponent there (be it reloaded Yankees, shape-shifting Rays or Rangers or rebuilt Blue Jays) too good for them at the time.

Still, Pujols will fight for AL MVP honors, coming up just short. Even then, he will lose only for playing time reasons. His numbers:

Batting Avg.	On-Base Percentage	Slugging Avg.	Home Runs	WAR
.323	.444	.603	27	5.3

That will be worth $24.65 million in added raw value, but this is where value extends beyond sheer production. The Angels will be able to sell playoff tickets because of Pujols' outburst, making them extra money, and the boost from 85 to 90 wins will be critical.

December 2014: Pujols' Salary Prevents a Key Personnel Move

Angel Stadium is old. Built in 1966, it has undergone more than one major renovation. The latest one beautified it and monetized it in a delightful way, but maintenance costs on the structure are soon to skyrocket. 

Normally, one would spend TV rights deal money on infrastructural concerns like that. In this case, though, the Angels have poured a whole lot of that money into Pujols, C.J. Wilson and others. The budget will suddenly constrict upon Jerry Dipoto for the first time, and Pujols' salary will stand in the way of the team getting better.

2015 Season: Pujols Plays More DH Than First Base for the First Time

Very early in the 2015 season, Mike Scioscia will begin slotting Pujols as the DH in the name of keeping his legs fresh. A younger man (Angels draftee C.J. Cron, perhaps?) will get the reps as Pujols finds a groove slugging off the bench.

It will quietly become habit. From 2015 onward, Pujols will play in the neighborhood of 100 games as the DH every year. The spread of interleague play over the full season will provide natural moments at which to play him at first, but otherwise Pujols will move to a more protected position.

October 2015: The Angels Start Quietly Regretting the 10-Year Commitment

Arte Moreno has been famous for sticking to his guns and his price points. He let Carl Crawford, Adrian Beltre, CC Sabathia and Mark Teixeira walk away because the market gave them more than he was willing to pay. He made a major exception for Pujols and C.J. Wilson.

It's going to look bad four years in. Pujols will post these figures in 2015:

Batting Avg.	On-Base Percentage	Slugging Avg.	Home Runs	WAR
.292	.358	.548	33	5.0

That's worth just $23.75 million, including inflation, and the Angels will miss the 2015 playoffs. Pujols will be heading for his less productive years, having given the Angels some great things but seeming far from the pinnacle already.

February 2016: Pujols Will Be Proven to Be Two Years His Own Elder

Ostensibly, Pujols will be 36 when the 2016 season begins. In reality, he'll be 38 or so. That's the worst-kept secret in baseball. Even I have been writing about it for months. His age is a subject of constant debate—and not a little humor—among MLB scouts.

Four seasons into the 10-year deal, the bomb will drop. It won't jar people all that much, because Pujols will still be playing fairly well, but the news will hit and will reframe for everyone the second half of this deal: How much longer can even The Machine run?

April-June 2016: Pujols Goes Nuts

Albert Pujols has always drawn inspiration from adversity. If you need convincing, I refer you to this article.

Fueled by the doubt that will run rampant after the news of his falsified age breaks, Pujols will tear the league to shreds in the first half of the 2016 season. The Angels will have the league's best record at the All-Star break, thanks in large part to these numbers over the first 85 games from Pujols:

Batting Avg.	On-Base Percentage	Slugging Avg.	Home Runs	WAR
.333	.429	.707	24	4.4

Included will be Pujols' 600th career double. He might spark whispers about performance-enhancing drugs along the way, but he will firmly shut up doubters about his age.

October 2016: Angels Win World Series, Pujols Earns Series MVP

Pujols will cool only slightly in the second half. He will trounce non-Barry Bonds records for batting by a man his age. He will launch his 600th home run and win his fifth (and final) MVP award.

His crowning achievement, though, will be to take home the hardware as World Series MVP in 2016. The Angels will go all-out in pursuit of that crown, with the contracts of both Jered Weaver and C.J. Wilson both set to expire. Pujols and the supporting cast (Trout will be a superstar, as much a household name as Pujols himself by then) will deliver.

Pujols' final numbers in 2016 will look thus:

Batting Avg.	On-Base Percentage	Slugging Avg.	Home Runs	WAR
.300	.428	..570	41	7.6

This will be the final superstar season (and final playoff appearance) of Pujols' career, but he will go out with a bang. The 7.6 WAR will be worth $38 million in 2016 baseball dollars. The postseason will re-crown Pujols as king, and the city of Los Angeles will finally become an Angels town.

2017 Season: Reality Sets In, Hard

With two World Series rings in the bag and the legend growing all the time, maybe the Angels and their fans simply will not care if Pujols' production falls off a cliff once all that happens.

They had better be ready for it, like it or not.

By 2017, Pujols will be just a DH. He will be 37-40 years old. He will miss 50 or more games in each remaining season he plays. His production will change, as his slowing swing forces him to cheat for power.

Here are the figures I foresee for Pujols in 2017:

Batting Avg.	On-Base Percentage	Slugging Avg.	Home Runs	WAR
.282	.346	.513	22	3.3

That output is worth a shade under $17 million in 2017 dollars—nothing to sneeze at. But it doesn't pay the bill. The Angels will miss the playoffs the final five seasons of Pujols' big deal, beginning here, and that reduces any marginal value added in terms of intangibles.

July 2017: Pujols Notches 3,000th Career Hit

Joining the 3,000-hit club will solidify Pujol's status as one of the three best hitters ever. He will join Hank Aaron and Willie Mays as the only men with at least 600 home runs and 3,000 hits, and by the time he gets there, he will already have more doubles than either.

Early in 2018, Pujols will also claim the kingship for hits by a Latin American player. Hits are a measure of longevity, or fortitude, and though they're overrated in terms of true evaluation, this will be a joyous moment. Pujols will take immense and justified pride in the achievement.

2018 Season: A Relative Revival

Able to stay healthy for a longer stretch in 2018, Pujols will put a better dent in the money he is owed. It helps, to be sure, that he has a personal services contract with Arte Moreno for the 10 years after his 10-year playing deal expires. That will keep him coming back for more, working hard to keep his edge despite five MVP awards and four World Series titles.

Here are the numbers I foresee for year seven of the deal:

Batting Avg.	On-Base Percentage	Slugging Avg.	Home Runs	WAR
.306	.371	.533	25	3.5

That's actually going to be worth $18.6 million, which also isn't bad. Along the way, Pujols should eclipse 2,000 RBI, pass Mays on the home run list and keep the home folks interested as the Angels rebuild around him.

2019 Season: The Records Crawl out of Reach

At a certain point, those destined to fall short of baseball's great records all realize the shortfall that is coming. Pujols will find out, to his chagrin, in 2019. With just three years of work left to do, Pujols will enter 2019 trailing the record figures by 100 home runs, 112 doubles and just under 300 RBI.

The eighth year of his deal, his age 39-41 season, will be the best of its latter phase. He will bat less well, but much more frequently, managing to play 135 games for the first time in three years.

Batting Avg.	On-Base Percentage	Slugging Avg.	Home Runs	WAR
.277	.354	.501	27	3.3

That's worth another $18.2 million, by the way, in 2019 dollars. Mixed in will be his 700th double, for what that's worth.

2020 Season: The End

At age 40-42, Pujols will play his final season in 2020. He will be forced to leave his final year's salary on the operating table due to a chronic elbow injury.

Before going down, he will provide some fireworks with his 700th home run, and fans of every team will give him a grand goodbye. Despite his age-related deceit and departure from St. Louis, he will be remembered as a great ambassador for the game.

FINAL CAREER NUMBERS: 706 HR, 2,103 RBI, 712 2B

Batting Avg.	On-Base Percentage	Slugging Avg.	Home Runs	WAR
.264	.331	.458	17	1.9

His final season will be worth $10.45 million, bringing his total merited earnings through sheer on-field value over the life of the deal to $203.45 million. Not worth it in the strictest terms, but taking into account the marketing power and the value added of those Series titles, it will have been more than worthwhile. Arte Moreno made a good decision here.