Chicago Bears: 7 Potential Playoff Opponents and How They Match Up

Who could the Bears face in the playoffs and how do they match up?

While so many are running around waving the white flag and burying Chicago because Jay Cutler is out for what appears to be the rest of the regular season, that's not the game plan here.

The Bears' season isn't over, and the playoffs are not lost.  In fact, with the advantageous schedule, and the Bears defense and special teams prowess, the Bears should still be considered wild-card favorites.  Add to that the production of Matt Forte and Marion Barber.

Oh, and there's this guy named Caleb Hanie who would like a word.

See, he collects a paycheck every week to play quarterback in the NFL.  And frankly, he has to be feeling a bit disrespected right about now.

No, Hanie isn't Jay Cutler.  But he isn't Craig Krenzel or Chad Hutchinson, either.  And he sure isn't Todd Collins.

So why are the obituaries already appearing?  

Hanie hasn't given us enough film to know much about him.  Yet, if you check so many of the commentary out there, you'll find strong opinion that "Hanie is Matt Flynn."

Who is Matt Flynn?  A backup that nobody had any clue about until Rodgers fell to a concussion.  And honestly, nobody really has a clue about Flynn now.  There's just not enough there.

Steve Young was once an unknown backup in Tampa Bay.  Kurt Warner was a grocery bagger turned Rams backup until an injury thrust him into his destiny. 

We have no idea who Hanie is. 

So let's dump the white flag nonsense and look forward to seven possible playoff opponents Chicago could face.

The Green Bay Packers

We'll start with the obvious.  At 10-0, the Packers are all but a colossal meltdown or a catastrophic wave of injury away from the playoffs.  While it's mathematically possible for the Packers to miss the playoffs, the reality is that the Packers are a lock to be playing in January.

How does this match look on paper?  

The Packers are the best team in football.  Period.  

Aaron Rodgers is having one of the best seasons a quarterback has ever had.  Gregg Jennings, Jordy Nelson and Jermichael Finley make up one of, if not the, best receiving groups in football.

The Packers defense is flawed, but it doesn't have to be spectacular or even average when the Packers offense is forcing teams to abandon the run just to keep up.   Additionally, the much-maligned Packers passing defense isn't nearly as bad as advertised.

The ranking system that places the Pack 31st in the league against the pass doesn't weigh the statistics against the increased number of passes thrown Green Bay's way when teams are playing catch-up, as is so often the case considering the high-powered aerial attack captained by Rodgers.  The Packers have only trailed at halftime three times in their 10 contests.

Consider this: The Packers have scored over 40 points in more games this year than they have scored fewer than 30 points and are averaging 35.5 points per game.

Add to this the fact that the Packers passing attack is so dominating that the team utilizes a 38/62 run-pass ratio.  A ratio like that usually indicates problems and typically is owned by teams that have to play from behind frequently, but the Packers have been destroying teams weekly, and their average margin of victory is 14 points.

Making matters worse, the Packers are ranked 10th in the league defending the run and have only allowed six rushing touchdowns to date.

In all, the Packers completely outclass the Bears on paper.

The Bears rank 30th in pass defense.  But that ranking is even more misleading than the Packers.  The Bears have actually entered halftime leading even more frequently than the Packers, trailing only twice.  

The Bears are also the worst team in the league in stopping tight ends, and the Packers have one of the best in the league in Finley, who burned the Bears with seven receptions for 85 yards and three touchdowns in the last meeting between them.

And Matt Forte is the cog that makes the Bears offense go, but he was held to just two yards on nine carries in September.

Yet, the last contest, won by the Packers, was within reach for the Bears until the fourth quarter.  

The truth is that these two teams have played more contests against one another than any other pairing in the league.  They know each other and can beat each other on any given Sunday.  The Bears will still have to face the Pack once more on Christmas day, and that matchup will be a big test for the Bears and the Pack.

But the clear edge still belongs to the Packers. 

Chances of a Chicago Win: 33 percent (which are the best odds I would give any team facing the Packers this year)

New Orleans Saints

This is a game that would be a repeat from earlier in the season, and frankly, would likely end the same way.

That's not to say the Bears can't win in the Superdome but would be the certain underdogs. But not nearly as much so as earlier in the year.

The Saints' passing attack is just awesome. And while the running game doesn't measure up to the pass, it's still plenty effective.

While the defense isn't good, the Saints offense can outrun opponents to the end zone much the way we discussed earlier with the Packers.  

Chicago had a rough time with the Saints and played their worst game of the season at the Superdome.

But the Bears defense didn't perform horribly against the Saints but for a few big plays—a problem that has been seemingly corrected in Chicago with the emergence of Chris Conte and Major Wright.

And the offense was severely hobbled by horrible pass-blocking and the abandonment of the running game.  Both of those situations have been corrected as well.

The loss of Cutler would likely be felt more in this game than in any other, but not so much that it would ensure a Bear defeat.

Hanie would just have to provide more than the 14-for-45 performance that Jay put up in New Orleans in September.  If Forte and Barber put up even decent games against the mediocre run defense of the Saints, the Bears would have a real chance of beating the Saints.

The one factor that hasn't changed that could define the game would be the Bears pass rush, which rarely got near Brees in their first meeting and hasn't gotten much better since then.  The performance of the pass rush would be the hinge the game would swing on.

Chances of a Bears Win: 40 percent

San Francisco 49ers

Again, another obvious team. 

The 49ers are hot, and at 9-1 in the terrible NFC West, they can clinch the division with a win on Thursday and a Seahawks' loss on Sunday.

This team matches up well against Chicago in a lot of ways.  

They are the best run defense in the league while Chicago's offense, now more than ever, hinges on the play of Matt Forte and Marion Barber.

They are the league's best team in turnover ratio and are first in the league in fumbles recovered and interceptions thrown while coming in second in interceptions taken and seventh in the league in fumbles, hampering Chicago's takeaway defense.

They are the league's sixth-ranked rushing attack while Chicago sits 29th in the league in yards per carry allowed.

They have given up the fewest points in the league and the eighth-fewest yards.

Chicago would have their work cut out for them if they were to meet the 49ers in the playoffs.  But the 9ers would not be an insurmountable obstacle for the Bears.

Remember that before the Lions came to Chicago, they were first in the league in give-aways and turnover differential.  Chicago changed that for them, more than doubling their season total in just that game.  Of the 14 total turnovers Detroit has allowed through 10 games, seven of them were caused by Chicago.

Additionally, the Frisco defense is predicated on the pass rush, which ranks 13th in the league and on stopping the run.  

Meanwhile the Bears offensive line, after allowing a sickening number of sacks early in the season, has blanked the Lions and Eagles and allowed just two sacks to the Lions and one to the Vikings.  They have faced some of the best pass rushes in the league over the past four weeks and come out on top.

Matt Forte is among the most productive backs in the league, and Marion Barber looks better than he has in years so they provide enough discouragement to force the 49ers into eight man fronts, something their 23rd-ranked pass defense will suffer for.

The way the 49ers are playing, they have to be the clear favorite, but the Bears are one of the few teams in the league that should be considered a near equal to Frisco.

Chances of a Chicago Win: 45 percent

New York Giants

The Giants passing game has been mightily impressive this season, but not enough to topple the Bears.

The reality is that while the passing attack has been on target, the Giants' run game is just plain putrid.  They are 31st in the league in yards, and it isn't for lack of trying.  They've run just six fewer times than the Bears have but trail the Bears by 337 yards, leading to the Giants ranking 32nd in the league in yards per attempt.

Factor in that the 21st-ranked Giants defense is equally poor in run and pass defense, and the game looks pretty favorable for the Bears

The Giants still have a mighty pass rush, which could still pose a problem for the Bears if the line picked the wrong day to regress.  But Barber and Forte also give the defensive linemen pause before teeing off on whoever helms the Bears offense.  If the linemen forget about the run, nobody is more dangerous than Matt Forte at the second level.

For all of the talk about the Giants passing attack, the Giants have been slow starters and have not held a commanding lead at halftime against any opponent other than the Rams.

Chicago has led at halftime in eight of their 10 contests and have only lost one game in which they have led at the midway point.  

In other words, the defense is stingy in the second half, when the Giants tend to take over games.

All in all, the Bears would have to be considered the favorites to win over the Giants.

Chances of a Chicago Win: 60 percent

Dallas Cowboys

I'm going to anger some Cowboys fans here, but I have to say it.  The Cowboys haven't proven anything...yet.

They have played all of three games against teams with winning records and have won just one of them.  Their current three-game winning streak is built on the backs of teams with a combined 12-18 record, consisting of the Bills who are currently on a three-game skid and the Redskins on a six-game plummet.

The Cowboys have built a 6-4 record but have been wildly inconsistent.

Still, they can be dangerous.

While both their offense and defense can be streaky, when they're good, they're very good.  

This makes the Cowboys a bit unpredictable and something of a wild card.  Will you get the team that handed the 49ers their only loss or the team that let the Eagles dissect them mercilessly?

In general, the Cowboys win the games good teams should but drop the games that you expect mediocre to bad teams to lose.

They are the trendy pick to grab the East, but I expect the Giants to beat them down twice and take the division.  Still, this team could surprise.

This team has a good pass rush, a solid overall defense and the offensive weapons to make things happen when they put it all together.  If the Lions or Falcons falter, the 'Boys could find themselves playing in the postseason.  

If the Cowboys manage to squeak into the playoffs, they'll be a handful. Ultimately, their inconsistency will lead to an early exit.

But if they meet up with the Bears, the game is anyone's guess.  Both teams feature a solid running attack.  While the Cowboys edge the Bears in passing and pass rush, the Bears have the advantage in turnovers, coverage and on special teams.  The rest is a wash.

It's the kind of game that's difficult to predict, but I lean towards the Bears who have done a better job against top competition.

Chances of a Bears Win: 60 percent

Detroit Lions

The Lions might not have the same mystique surrounding them in early October, but they are still a formidable team.

What really hurts the Lions is the Bears' style of defense.  

In their Week 5 contest, Chicago played a very atypical game.  The defense allowed plenty of big plays.  Add to that the offensive line woes and you get the recipe for a Bears' loss.

But their second meeting saw the Bears play their style of football, and the Lions had no answers.

They couldn't stop the Bears offense when it mattered.  They could not run against the Bears defense and they fell right into the traps of the Bears bend-don't-break pass defense as Charles Tillman contained Calvin Johnson.   And their 30th-ranked special teams unit could do no right against Devin Hester and the Bears first-ranked ST group.

Unfortunately for the Pride, this is the more likely outcome of a third meeting.

The defense is improving weekly, as is the offensive line.  And as the second game revealed, the Bears offense doesn't need to do much but manage the game when the defense and special teams units are doing their jobs.

The Lions' best weapon is the addiction many defensive coordinators have to trying to stop Calvin Johnson.  Calvin Johnson cannot be stopped.   The Bears know this and instead focus on containing Johnson and stopping the rest of the Lions offense.

That's how the Bears beat the Lions three weeks ago and how they would beat them again should they meet in the playoffs.

Chances of a Bears Win: 70 percent

Atlanta Falcons

Let's get one thing straight.  The Falcons are a better team than their 6-4 record would indicate.

The Falcons could just as easily be 8-2 were it not for a couple of bad breaks and one really bad coaching decision.  In fact, were it not for that coaching decision, the Falcons could very well be in charge of the NFC South.

The Falcons are one of the most well-balanced teams in the league, and while they aren't the clear-cut best at anything, they're good at nearly everything.

Matt Ryan and the passing game, along with Roddy White, Julio Jones and Tony Gonzalez, are among the better aerial assaults in the league.  Meanwhile, Michael Turner is as vicious as runner as there is in the league.

The defense is rock solid against the run and does a good enough job in pass coverage.

The one glaring problem with this team is the pass rush.  It just isn't there.  Much like Chicago and Julius Peppers, John Abraham is the beginning and end of their pass rush.  If he's not the player getting to the quarterback, he's a large part of someone else getting there.  Unfortunately for the Dirty Birds, nobody is getting there enough.

And there-in lines the problem the Falcons have in facing the Bears.  Mike Martz could design plays that would allow my 10-year-old daughter, given time, to manage a game effectively.  Generally, the problem is often finding that time.  But without a pass rush, the Falcons allow the Bears just that.  Time.

That time would allow the Bears to develop enough of a passing game to open lanes and opportunities for Matt Forte.  That's all the Bears need.

Their good but not great offense isn't enough to overcome the weapons Chicago employs on defense in a fashion that makes up for the defensive shortcomings.

Chances of a Bears Win: 70 percent