Why Atlanta Falcons Are in Serious Danger of Missing 2011 Postseason

Fans of the Atlanta Falcons won't want any reminder this week of the implications of last Sunday's defeat to divisional rivals New Orleans Saints.

A rare home loss left the 5-4 Falcons not just trailing in the NFC South but crucially, on the outside looking in on an increasingly crowded playoff picture. If the season ended today, Mike Smith's decision to go for it on 4th and 1 would take months, not days, to blow over.

In the context of a whole season, backfiring calls—like the decision to go for it on 4th down on your own 29-yard line—can be overcome, but they point to a wider problem. 

Just ask Bill Belichick. His now-infamous decision to go for it on 4th and 2 on his own 28-yard line against the Colts in 2009 was cut from the same cloth as Smith's rationale last weekend.

In both situations, the game was on the line—perhaps needlessly so, due to play-calling. Both men defended the decision by implying that their offenses were good enough to make a first down, while the suspicion lingers that the trust in their defenses all but vanished.

Whatever the reason, the Falcons defense—like Tedy Bruschi and co. two years before—will be fired up by the perceived slight, and use it as motivation to prove everyone wrong. 

Atlanta are down, but not out of the playoffs just yet. They can't afford many mistakes though, and with road visits to Houston, Carolina and New Orleans left on the schedule, defeat in two of those three games could prove fatal.

A 10-6 record might not be enough to keep you playing through January in the NFC this season, and with the Lions, Bears and Cowboys all currently ahead in the Wild Card race, the remaining divisional games on the Falcons' schedule take on even greater importance.

The key to success in the last seven games starts with the pass rush. Atlanta are ranked 23rd in pass defense, in part due to their struggles in generating pressure. Tied for 27th with 15 sacks, defensive coordinator Brian VanGorder needs to go back to the drawing board and find new ways to dial up the heat on opposing quarterbacks, who, more often than not, are finding simple completions with ample time in the pocket.

The players must take responsibility for this too, none more so than Ray Edwards, whose $11 million guaranteed money has so far yielded just two sacks. John Abraham, in a contract year, must also lead by example, even if his best years in the league are behind him.

Nobody can accuse Thomas Dimitroff and the Falcons of not taking the playoffs seriously. The trade for Julio Jones in the draft only heightens the impression that they want to give Matt Ryan as many weapons as possible as he enters the prime of his career.

On offense, all the pieces appear to be in place, yet they are ranked 12th in both rushing and passing yards. Is this a case where the Falcons add up to less than the sum of their parts?

Across the board, the offense is having a solid, if unspectacular, year. They have at times turned it on—games against the Eagles and the Panthers spring to mind.

But like most teams in the league, they are prone to laying a collective egg, such as the defeat to Green Bay, or on the road in Tampa.

With former All-Pro's such as Michael Turner, Roddy White and Tony Gonzalez in the ranks, and a fourth year franchise quarterback at the controls, it is fair to expect the highest of standards from what should be one of the league-leading ball clubs in yards and points scored.

It all starts this Sunday against Tennessee in the Georgia Dome. Keep Matt Hasselbeck and Chris Johnson under wraps, grind out a win against a tough team and target those tough road fixtures ahead.

A defeat, on the other hand, leaves Mike Smith's men staring at the abyss. For such a talented roster, that is simply not an option.