Why the San Francisco 49ers Are Going to Be 9-1 Heading into Thanksgiving

No San Francisco 49ers fan would have imagined the team would be sitting with a 5-1 record and a three-game lead in the NFC West heading into Week 8. It is beyond all of our wildest imaginations. 

Then you have this: The 49ers are ranked in the top four of all major media outlet power rankings right now. In fact, our very own Matt Miller has them at No. 3. I caught a glimpse of an interview with Mike Floria of Pro Football Talk yesterday on Comcast Sports Bay Area. He stated, and I am paraphrasing here, that the 49ers need to start looking at playoff seeding rather than worrying about the weak teams in their division.

Is this correct? Or, are we throwing the trolley before the horse? 

Well, San Francisco owns a three-game lead in the NFC West with a tie-breaker against the Seahawks this lead is actually a real number of four. Considering that San Francisco's magic number is eight, it might be too early to talk division crown just yet.

Still, I just don't see any other NFC West team finishing with eight wins. This means that the 49ers would have to go just 3-7 in their final 10 games in order to capture the division. In a sense, they could have it wrapped up at the three-quarter point of the season. 

San Francisco is currently tied with the New England Patriots for the second best record in the NFL through seven weeks at 5-1. There remains a strong possibility that they go into the Thanksgiving night game against the Baltimore Ravens with a 9-1 record. Imagine that. 

Now, let me focus on the reasons why San Francisco will win their next four games and set up one heck of a post-turkey matchup with the Ravens. 

Schedule

The toughest of the 49ers next four opponents will be the New York Giants three weeks from now. They lead the NFC East with a 4-2 record, but have been up and down all season long. In fact, this is a team that lost to the Seattle Seahawks at home and was one bad call from the same feat against Arizona the week prior. Eli Manning is playing good football, but this is by all accounts a game that the 49ers should win. 

This week San Francisco will be taking on a Cleveland Browns team that is nowhere as good as their 3-3 record would indicate. Cleveland's three wins have come by a total of 12 points against teams with a combined 3-17 record, including their ugly 6-3 win over the aforementioned Seahawks last week. This is a game that the 49ers should win easily and without much drama. 

Two weeks from now San Francisco will go to the nation's capital to face a Washington Redskins team that is slipping from the ranks of the surprise teams. They have lost two consecutive games, replaced their starting quarterback and just got devastating news that Tim Hightower will be lost for the season and Santana Moss for the next two months. For an offense without many weapons, those two injuries are going to have a dramatic impact. This game just got a lot easier.

Update: Chris Cooley out for the season 

Then, San Francisco will have the honor of hosting a dreadful Arizona Cardinals team that has lost five consecutive games. Kevin Kolb is looking more and more like a bust, Beanie Wells is banged up again and this team is just out of sorts.

San Francisco's next four opponents before traveling to Baltimore for Thanksgiving are a combined 11-13, but that doesn't tell the entire story. Cleveland, Washington and Arizona have combined to lose their last nine games, while New York tends to struggle out west, 5-8 under Manning in the Pacific Time Zone.  

The 49ers Are Just a Good Team

If you haven't figured it out already, the San Francisco 49ers are no flash in the pan. They aren't going to go on a four- or five-game losing streak and calm the good feelings of an amazing start. This isn't the 2009 49ers that started 3-1 only to finish 8-8. Nor, is it the 2008 team that won two of their first three games, only to go on to lose eight of their final 13 games. 

The San Francisco 49ers are for real.

There has been a recent challenge to the idea that football games are won in the trenches and along the interiors of both the offensive and defensive lines. Common knowledge would accept that teams with All-Pro quarterbacks can overcome other deficiencies to win games.

However, the trenches are where a lot of games are won and lost. Right now the 49ers rank second in rush defense and sixth in rush offense, two indicators that this team is for real and ready to contend for the long haul. 

Accordingly, San Francisco ranks fifth in scoring offense and second in scoring offense. This leads to a point differential of 11.7 points per game, which is good for third in the NFL.

You can remain skeptical as a 49er fan that this team is for real. After all, they have given us 10-plus years of bad to mediocre football, but you cannot deny the fact that this team, as currently assembled, looks like a true contender. 

Change of Culture

It is no longer that the 49ers go into a difficult game with the hopes of staying close and pulling it out at the end. Rather, they fully expect to win these games. Average teams do not go on the road and win three consecutive Eastern Time Zone games, it just doesn't happen. Heck, good football teams have a hard time doing that. 

Jim Harbaugh has instilled into the San Francisco 49ers what many expected Mike Singletary to. Not just an aura of confidence, but the ability and necessity to remain grounded when things are going well and confidence when they aren't.

Early in the season San Francisco struggled on the offensive side of the ball, this team didn't give into media speculation that the offense was going to hold them back. Instead, they worked hard at improving the offensive line play and connectivity of the passing game. 

The results have been overwhelming as of late as the 49ers are averaging over 32 points and nearly 400 yards over the last three games. We all knew the talent was there, it was just getting the right coaching and scheme to mesh with that talent. Right now the 49ers have that. 

Conclusion

Let's not get too far ahead of ourselves. The 49ers are nothing more than a 5-1 team with a three game lead in their division heading into the halfway mark in the season. The players have been inundated with messages from the coaching staff that include, "stay grounded" and "don't read the headlines."

It is fun for fans to get excited about good football, especially after seeing so many years of continual struggle. However, the NFL is a weird league and things can change in the matter of a split second. So, keep in mind that San Francisco has only played about 38 percent of their regular season schedule thus far. 

All that realism aside,  it is obvious that the 49ers are the class of the weak NFC West, but that really isn't the point right now. They are not winning because the division sucks or because of a weak schedule.

Instead, San Francisco is winning because they are a damn good football team. The next four weeks could seal the fate if the NFC West and that is amazing considering where we are in the season.

If San Francisco is able to run off four consecutive wins against lesser opponents it will not only put them in a collision course with the Baltimore Ravens on Thanksgiving. It will seal their place as one of the best teams in the NFL and a true title contender.

If not, it means that this team isn't where many believe they will be at seasons end and there is a lot more work to do. Either way, it is fun to live in the Bay area right now.