How the NBA Lockout Can End

The NBA lockout is well past the 100-day mark at this point. Is there any hope that the two sides can finally reach an agreement before the entire 2011-12 slate is thrown away?

Here's a futuristic, fantasy scenario the two sides can reach with both the players and owners giving a little to finally reach the middle and start the season before too many games are missed.

Owners Win over Public Support

In a bold, daring, inspiring, innovative and generous move spearheaded by none other than Mark Cuban, the owners declare that they will pay all ticket vendors, ushers, concession workers and stadium employees for games lost if they have worked a minimum of five years or more with their respective teams.

This move won over public favor immensely for the owners. It didn't take David Stern trying to spin anything and dwarfed any rec league games the players tried to organize to show fans that "They just wanna play." Even though tickets weren't free to those games. I mean, who do you expect to pay for everything, the millionaire players?

The way Cuban swayed the small market teams like Memphis, Milwaukee and Charlotte to do this is the owners agreed to split their profits evenly during the first year of the deal. But only the first year. After that, the revenue split goes back to the way it was.

This strategic move by the owners brought the players back to the negotiating tables immediately.

Michael Jordan Speaks Up

Michael Jordan explains his effect on the league. He explains to the players that the reason they had such a great deal the last time around was because of him. The year he retired, before the last lockout, the league had set an all time high for TV ratings for the NBA Finals. Sound familiar? 

Players and agents are trying to tell the public that the league has never been popular than it has been this past year.  Which is simply not true. The ratings are nothing compared to when Jordan played.

Check out this link for a full understanding, but I'll break down some of it here.

Jordan's first year in the NBA finals got a rating of 15.8, which is only slightly less than the 15.9 (which at that time was the all time high) set by Bird and Magic for the '87 Finals.

The next two championships received a 14.2 and 17.9 (the new high). The following Jordan less Finals received 12.4 and 13.9 (both more than any post Jordan finals).

When Jordan returned, they skyrocketed to 16.7, 16.8 and 18.9 (the new and current high).

Since Jordan retired the league has only gone over a 12 in the ratings once (2001 Finals between the powerhouse Lakers and underdog Sixers).  You'd have to go all the way back to 1981 to find a Finals that was rated lower than that, which goes to show you that Bird and Magic set the table for Jordan's success, as they brought enough people to the sport to get Jordan recognized and then he continued to build it from there.

Last year's finals, the one that was supposedly so great, got a rating of 10.2, though Game 6 was the most watched Finals game since 2000. But even still, that game had a 13.3 rating, while Game 6 of the 1998 Finals with Jordan had a rating of 22.3

So while the owners might not be losing as much as they say they are, they definitely aren't making as much as they were when the last collective bargaining agreement was signed. 

The players claim that the league isn't anything without them, which is true. But these players aren't Bird, Magic or Jordan, so they shouldn't be paid like them. The players talk about paving the way for future players, which is what their predecessors had done before them. However, the current players haven't been able to keep the game growing at the same rate and have in fact cost the NBA fans/popularity.

Unfortunately for future players, the current NBA players have paved a crappier road than their predecessors. They need to recognize that.

Players Get 52 Percent BRI; Owners Get 48 Percent

The owners decide to give the players the percentages that they want. Almost. They don't agree to the 53 percent, as they want to prove to the players that their hard line stance on 53 percent had been broken. Just enough to appease the owners' egos.

Here's how it happened:

1. David Stern made the owners realize that they will outlast the players. In 10 years, when the deal is up (oh yeah, that's the other thing; it's a 10-year deal), Kevin Garnett, Kobe and Paul Pierce will all be retired. The players they will be negotiating with won't remember the 57 percent they were making for 10 years; just the 52 percent. The owners can talk down the players even more in the next negotiating session. Instead of 52, they'll get 50. It's just two points, not the five points they asked for before.

2) The players realize that the people fighting so hard for that 53 percent are the ones who are going to take the biggest chunk of it. High profile agents and high profile players who don't want a reduced cap because then that means that they might have to take less money in order to have a competitive team. This was explained more later in my dream.

No Mid-Level Exception

All exceptions to the cap besides the Larry Bird Right get eliminated. Here's how it happened.

1) Shane Battier stepped in and said he'd be willing to take a smaller percentage if the owners made the game more affordable for fans, and let the players know that the owners have to spend a certain amount of money. So it doesn't matter how they spend it. If they don't spend it foolishly on mid-level exception players, then the money will go into an escrow that gets divided evenly among players. This wins over the support of the lower salaried players whom make up the majority of the NBA.

2) The owners realize that this is a great way to create parity in the league. The mid-level exception only helps the rich teams that can afford to take the hit if it doesn't pan out. While Ron Artest is already worth the money spent on his contract for helping bring the Lakers another ring, that move causes teams like the Nuggets to go out and spend on Al Harrington to try and stay competitive as well as keep their star happy.  Show them, "Hey we are not cheap! We can spend like the Lakers/Knicks!"  But they can't.

This causes stars to want to play for big market teams that can afford to take the luxury tax hit and spend every year foolishly on role players. This raises the market for role players and causes teams that have the salary cap to overspend on players like Travis Outlaw because he could get over $5 million from a contender, so the Nets have to pay him $7 million to lure him away, when actually, he is worth more like $3 million.

3) Dwyane Wade and other stars get exposed for having only their interest at heart.  They don't care about "future players." They care about themselves. They want a higher BRI because they need a higher salary cap so they can make a lot of money and still have a competitive team.  They need the mid-level exception for that same reason. Without it, Wade, Pierce and Garnett know that they won't be able to field the best team possible for another ring. They are making players who can't afford to miss paychecks miss them in order for the Wades and Kobes of the world to have their careers remembered better.

Maybe NBA stars would have to restructure their contracts to make room under the salary cap. 

Restricted Free Agency Period Lasts 24 Hours

Trying to give the players some things that they really wanted, the owners concede to allowing teams a window of 24 hours to match any offer for restricted free agents.

This opens up more opportunities for players like OJ Mayo because now teams won't be worried about tying up their cap space for seven days, which limits the options for people like Mayo and thus leads to him having to either wait another year risking injury, a poor season, or they have to take a lesser deal to get security.

Teams know right away whether or not they want a player. How much he is worth to them? They have a whole season to figure it out. Do they really need seven more days? Twenty-four hours is more than enough time.

Franchise Players: A Different Kind of Tag

The NBA gets a franchise tag? What? This is supposed to be a dream, not a nightmare. Oh wait, it's not a franchise tag like the NFL. It's better.

NBA owners can deem one player on their team a franchise player. Which means....

1. They can pay that player however much money per a year they want. So if the Magic want to pay Dwight Howard $30 million a year, they can.  This allows small market teams the ability to keep their star players and has star players paid like star players.

2. Franchise rights can only be applied to a player drafted by that team or a player whom was traded to the team under a rookie contract.  So Carmelo can't sign his franchise tag with Denver and then be traded to New York.  And New York can't use its franchise tag on Carmelo because they didn't draft him.

3) If a franchise player is traded, their salary drops to a max contract, and it is this salary that is used to determine the value coming back.  So if Dwight is making $30 million with Orlando and wants to be traded to the Lakers, his contract goes down to 16 million or 18 million (depending on what year he is in), and the Magic only have to take back that much money in the trade. This makes sure that players don't force franchises to trade them after getting their money.  If they get traded from their franchise, they lose their franchise money.

4) Since no other team can franchise tag your player, it keeps teams from getting into bidding wars. You are only bidding against yourself. So if you don't think Dwight Howard is worth more than $30 million a year to your franchise, then you can let him walk to another team with cap space that can sign him only to the "Max Level Contract," which is something like $18 million per a year or whatever it figures out to be. 

I didn't have all the info in my dreams.  Dreams are hazy like that, little details get missed here and there. Like this last one.

5. Not sure if I remember this right. But I thought that franchise players only count against the cap as a max level player.  Meaning that if you pay Dwight Howard $30 million, it doesn't mean you only have $30 million left to spend on free agents (assuming a 60 million cap).  Dwight gets his money and only counts against the cap as a max level player. You might think this favors big market teams, but it actually keeps parity in the league and allows smaller teams like Memphis, who can't afford to go into luxury tax, the ability to keep a franchise player.

6. A team can only have one franchise player on their team at one time.  So the Thunder can't franchise tag both Kevin Durant AND Russel Westbrook. But what they could do is tag Westbrook and have his contract run out at the same time as Durant, and then tag Durant and keep Westbrook a max player if they wanted.

Play in Tournament for the 8th Seed

Bill Simmons suggested something like this that inspired an NBA executive to propose it to the league.

The league could get rid of a week of preseason games because no one watches those. But they would watch an NCAA type tournament to decide which team gets the eighth seed in each conference. All money made from the tournament would be split evenly amongst the 30 teams.

It would avoid teams tanking the season, theoretically...I mean, if someone like Shaq is available in next year's draft and you are the last place team, then might as well tank one last game to try and get Shaq instead of trying to win the tournament for some extra playoff ticket money.

As Simmons put it, it would be entertaining as hell.  I agree, and hopefully the league does as well.

No Luxury Tax After Four Years

Since there is no mid-level exception or bi-annual exception, then there need not be a penalty for overspending. You can no longer buy a championship, or at least, it's a lot harder to buy a championship. Now you have to trade, sign wisely in free agency and draft well.

If you draft well, like the Thunder, then you shouldn't be penalized in having to choose whom you keep and whom you let go.  The luxury tax was designed to curb spending from bigger franchises like the Lakers, Celtics, Bulls, etc. so that teams that couldn't afford as high of a salary cap either received money or theoretically had a level playing field if those larger market teams were scared away from spending.

This doesn't mean that there is no cap. There is still a cap, but you can go over it through trades and resigning your own players. And doing so doesn't mean you'll have to pay a harsher penalty.

Why no Lux tax after four years? Because big spending teams should still be penalized for the contracts that they signed during the last collective bargaining agreement. And since the new rules are going to make it hard for teams over the cap to add new pieces, then those that already have those pieces in place have a competitive advantage for the next few years.

Four years will make sure that everyone that was signed to a mid-level contract will be off the books.

Amnesty Clause in Full Effect

The amnesty clause allows teams to cut one player without cap ramifications. That player gets all their money owed and cannot re-sign with the team that cut them. This will be essential now that the mid-level exception is gone. Teams like the Celtics or Heat will need to trim payroll in order to fill out their roster with some quality role players.

Some Small Details Worked out

Sign and trades are kept. Now that the franchise tag is put into effect, smaller market teams are protected from Carmelo and LeBron forcing their teams to trade them. It also allows for more player movement.

There is no limit on the amount of max contract players you can have on a team. Once again, the franchise tag takes away this problem, as does the abolition of the mid-level exception.

Franchise players can be signed for up to six years, max contract players for five and all others for four years.

Not All Details Were Worked out

I didn't have all the details worked out in my dreams, but covered the majority of them. I wish I could remember what the revenue sharing system was in my dream. I don't think I got to that part because I didn't have all the financial records of the NBA in my dreams.

To me, that is the toughest part to figure out. The league is at its best and most popular when teams like the Knicks, Celtics, Bulls and Lakers are good. It's better when LeBron James is a villain in Miami than just another star trying to fill Jordan's shoes in Cleveland. Which is evidenced by the fact that his finals appearance in Cleveland was rated the all time worst and his Miami finals scored a rating of four points higher and two points higher than when just Wade and Nowitzki faced off in '06.

There is a very good article published on revenue sharing on Blazers Edge that I recommend reading.

Now here's to hoping my dreams come true this Tuesday when owners and players meet with a federal mediator.