MLB Playoffs 2011: Tigers' ALCS Hopes Ride on Verlander's Vexing Vulnerability

Whatever happens in Game 4 of the ALCS on Wednesday, the Detroit Tigers’ World Series chances will depend heavily on how well their ace Justin Verlander pitches in Game 5. 

While Verlander remains the consensus favorite for the AL Cy Young award, a closer look at his recent pitching performances suggests that he’s become inconsistent and alarmingly more hittable than earlier in the season. 

Verlander’s vulnerability can be traced all the way back to late August. On August 27, he gave up two homers and four earned runs to the Minnesota Twins, throwing 120 pitches in just six innings. 

On September 2 against the Chicago White Sox, Verlander again was touched for a home run but otherwise scattered seven hits over seven-plus innings and allowed no other runs. In his next start at Cleveland on September 7, Verlander again surrendered two homers and four earned runs. He needed 113 pitches over 6 innings. 

Despite these rocky outings, Verlander picked up W’s in all three games, thanks to generous run support from the Tigers offense. 

Verlander’s next two starts were brilliant, as he pitched shutout ball against the White Sox on September 13 and against the punchless Oakland A’s on September 18, where he earned his MLB-best 24th win.

In the process, Verlander set a career high in innings pitched. 

Still, the stage was set for the 28-year-old righty to become the majors’ first 25-game winner since 1990.

However, Verlander didn't get that 25th win and hasn’t been the same since. His last regular-season start against the lowly Baltimore Orioles on September 24 was a seven-inning struggle, in which Verlander required 120 pitches over seven innings.

Like the Twins and Indians, the Orioles hit a pair of homers. Verlander took the loss, his first since mid-July.

Verlander had allowed only 17 homers over his first 210 innings pitched in 2011. The Orioles’ two blasts gave Tigers’ opponents seven homers in Verlander’s last 40 innings of the regular season.

Verlander’s inconsistency has continued in the postseason. He threw 25 pitches in one inning of work in the ALDS rain-suspended opener at Yankee Stadium, walking two and uncorking a wild pitch.  He returned to the mound to win ALDS Game 3, striking out 11 Yankees but once more had a high pitch count of 120 and allowed four earned runs in eight innings.

Last Saturday in the ALCS opener in Arlington, Verlander was again victimized by Mother Nature and a rain delay but not before throwing 82 pitches in just four innings. Nelson Cruz went deep off Verlander, who took the loss.

As he’s done all year long, Verlander hit 100 mph with his fastball. But, as has occurred since late August, he struggled with his command and location. Perhaps all the innings pitched are catching up to him. 

So, which Verlander awaits the Rangers in Game 5 of the ALCS—the virtually unhittable ace who thoroughly dominated the AL through late August or the suddenly mortal pitcher who has given up eight home runs in nine appearances since then, with an ERA climbing toward 4.00?

We’ll know on Thursday.