Bob Gibson, Sandy Koufax, Mickey Mantle and Willie Mays Didn't Rely on Luck

"Bob Gibson is the luckiest pitcher in baseball. He is always pitching when the other team doesn't score any runs." - Tim McCarver

Gibson wasn’t the only lucky pitcher. Hitters always seemed to be in a “slump” when they faced Sandy Koufax, Juan Marichal, Tom Seaver, Nolan Ryan and more recently, Pedro Martinez, Roger Clemens, Greg Maddux, Roy Halladay and Justin Verlander

Luck affected all of the above pitchers, but the great ones have a better chance of overcoming a bad break.

Ron Guidry had one of the greatest seasons of any pitcher in history in 1978. The New York Yankees left-hander was 25-3 with a 1.74 ERA, a 208 ERA+ and a 0.946 WHIP. Those numbers cannot be attributed to luck.

The next season, Guidry didn’t approach his peak season. He was 18-8 with a 2.78 ERA that led the league, a 146 ERA+ and a 1.159 WHIP. Guidry wasn’t less lucky in 1979. He was less effective and unable to maintain the rare skills of his 1978 season.

Great hitters are consistent from season to season for most of their careers. From 1955-71, Hank Aaron’s batting average ranged from .279 to .355, but don’t be misled. For 11 seasons, from 1955-65, he hit under .300 only once.

Mickey Mantle, Willie Mays, Ted Williams, Roberto Clemente and Stan Musial were similarly consistent.

Many ordinary players have one or two outstanding seasons that could have been caused by good luck or to the fact that they were healthy and/or really tried those seasons.

Denny McLain destroyed his own career. He won 31 games in 1968, 24 the next season and 21 over the three remaining seasons of his career. He left baseball at the age of 28. McLain wasn't lucky in 1968. His lack of character allowed him to fall prey to outside forces that ruined his life.

Elroy Face was a decent pitcher for the Pittsburgh Pirates. Primarily a relief pitcher, he was 32-36 with a 4.02 ERA, a 100 ERA+ and a 1.320 WHIP his first five seasons.

In 1959, Face was 18-1 with a 2.70 ERA and a 144 ERA+, but he had a WHIP of 1.243, which points to the fact that luck was a factor. Wins reveal only a small fraction of a pitcher's effectiveness.

In his first six seasons (1960-65), Detroit Tigers right-hander Phil Regan was 42-44 with a 4.50 ERA, an 86 ERA+ and a 1.378 WHIP. Not exactly Roy Halladay numbers.

Regan joined the Los Angeles Dodgers in 1965. A combination of Dodgers Stadium and some luck resulted in Regan winning 14 and losing only once. He had a 1.62 ERA, a 203 ERA+ and a 0.934 WHIP. Not exactly Phil Regan numbers.

The next year, Regan was 6-9.

It is undeniable that luck affects a player’s statistics, but over a full season, there usually is the chance that the bloop hits, the caught line drives and the great defensive plays will even out. Many times they don’t, but over a two or three seasons, they do.

Dustin Pedroia, Robinson Cano, Ryan Braun and Albert Pujols depend on much more than luck.