Top 10 Contenders Heading into Next NBA Season

Disclaimer: Obviously there is a lot we don’t know about next season, but most franchises have, at minimum, their 2011-2012 core group of players in place. Considering the players each team has under control and the development of said players, I have decided to take a look at the top ten contenders for the next NBA season… whenever that may be.

10. New York Knicks

If it weren’t for Donald Sterling, James Dolan would be the face of the NBA for biggest joke as an owner.

He has completely destroyed one of the richest teams in basketball and made it a laughing stock of the league over the past decade.

However, they have two of the 20 best players in the league in Carmelo Anthony and Amare Stoudemire. In the NBA, that is good enough to be considered at least a fringe contender. The current Knicks under Mike D’Antoni play no defense and have no continuity on offense. Therefore, to consider them anymore than a long shot challenger at this point seems foolish.

They are still one superstar or three quality players away from contention, and after seeing the way they screwed up transactions, neither one of those may ever happen.

New York fans may have to get use to a  No. 5 seed and a first round exit for the next several years, because this may be as good as it gets.

9. Orlando Magic

As long as Dwight Howard is playing there, the Magic will always be a contender. But make no mistake about it, this organization is in absolute shambles.

They currently have $51 million tied up for 2012-2013, and not $1 of that amount is being paid to Howard. That’s not good. In all honesty, the best thing the Magic can do at this point is blow up the entire roster and start from scratch. Unfortunately, the only tradeable piece is Howard, and they won’t get full value for him in almost any trade.

How does general manager Otis Smith still have a job? If you were hired to run a business, and you spent more money than allotted to make that business successful, and you still weren’t turning a profit, you’d probably lose your job. Not Otis Smith though.

It’s incredible how far into the ground he has run Orlando, especially since they were two games away from an NBA title just three seasons ago.

If and when Howard leaves, the Magic are going to be the Cleveland Cavaliers South of the NBA… except they won’t have anybody to blame but themselves.

8. Boston Celtics

Holy crap, are they old.

They are a quality, cohesive roster that plays well together, but man are they old.

On top of that, they don’t have much roster flexibility. The Celtics' salaries include Garnett for $21 million, Pierce for $15 million, Allen for $10 million, Rondo for $10 million, Rasheed Wallace for $7 million and Jermaine O’Neal for $6 million more. That doesn’t leave much room to maneuver.

Nobody is going to trade for any of those players (except for Rondo), and every key player is past his prime (except for Rondo).

They are still a talented group—any time you’re the best defensive team in the league, you always have a shot—but how they played after the Kendrick Perkins trade was flat-out alarming.

With two of the 25 best players in the league, the best shooter of all-time, and an all-time great defensive anchor, they can never be counted out, but my instincts tell me the Boston Title Run Ship has sailed on this roster, and they have very few ways to prevent the boat from sinking. I love analogies.

7. San Antonio Spurs

Speaking of sinking ships… Actually, because “Spurs” is a symbol for cowboys, we shall use the term “riding off into the sunset” to describe the title runs of this San Antonio roster.

Tim Duncan is the indisputably the greatest power forward ever, but he’s 35-years-old. Without him to dominate the game, they aren’t even close to the same team. Tony Parker and Manu Ginobili are really good second and third options, but they don’t have the capability to carry a team to a title.

There are two reasons I couldn’t drop them lower than seventh. First, they have effectively managed Duncan’s minutes (Memphis series aside) in the last few regular seasons, so that he is rested for the playoffs. Also, the a lockout and shortened season will help them more than any other team in the league.

6. Portland Trail Blazers

Let’s get one thing clear right out of the gate: LaMarcus Aldridge is one of the top ten players in the NBA. He is a superstar. His presence alone on both ends of the court gives them a chance to win night in and night out

With an intelligently crafted supporting cast around him—Gerald Wallace (all underrated team), Marcus Camby, Raymond Felton, Wesley Matthews, Nicolas Batum and Brandon Roy—they can beat any team in the league on any given night. The situation with Roy and Greg Oden (but especially Roy) is tragic to witness, but he can still be an effective player when he remembers that he isn’t the go-to guy anymore.

I think a full season with Gerald Wallace will make them even more dangerous in the Western Conference, and I could see them finishing in the top three out West as well being a very dangerous playoff team.

5. Chicago Bulls

From darling overachievers in the regular season to unfortunate underachievers in the playoffs verse the Miami Heat… the NBA really is a fickle place.

The Bulls have a 22-year-old MVP that will be even better next year and a defensive system that can make the most potent offense seem lost on a nightly basis. Those are the pros.

The cons are they owe Carlos Boozer’s flimsy corpse $60.6 million over the next 4 seasons, and they desperately need an outside shooter, as the Kyle Korver project was a complete and utter disaster. Until they find such a shooter (Ray Allen was available, what the heck were they doing!?!?), they can’t be considered the favorite in the East, no matter how good Derrick Rose becomes.

They are in a big market and can afford to pay the luxury tax, but their hands are going to be tied for a few years if a new CBA doesn’t allow that to happen.

Something tells me repeated Eastern Conference Finals losses to the Miami Heat won’t sit well with Chicago fans.

4. Dallas Mavericks

The current NBA champions have virtually their entire title-winning roster coming back.

That’s the good news. The bad news is that roster’s average age is about 62.5 (all figures estimated).

After winning a title, every player’s stock on the roster is usually at an all-time high. If they wanted to swing a blockbuster deal, it’s certainly on the table. That said, I don’t see the Mavericks doing that.

Instead, they are going to overpay to keep Tyson Chandler and hope Dirk Nowitzki is enough to get them back to the promised land. As one of the 15 best players of all time, I’m confident Dirk is up to the challenge, but I’m not sure the supporting cast will be able to match last year’s playoff performance.

The bottom line is that they are contenders as long as they have a healthy Dirk, but I certainly can’t say they are the favorites headed into next season despite being the reigning NBA champions.

3. Los Angeles Lakers

Phil Jackson may be out in La La Land, but as long as Kobe Bryant is still there, they have a chance to win the championship.

Hopefully, the Black Mamba (it’s growing on me) has somebody smart enough around him to grab him by the collar and tell him that he needs to rest, because the 2^nd Round playoff exit combined with the lockout could be a blessing in disguise.

Speaking of players that need to rest, has anyone seen Pau Gasol? What’s that…. he’s playing over in Spain? For a guy that looked absolutely exhausted the second half of last season, the last thing he needs to be doing is forgoing rest in order to play basketball this summer.

If I’m in the Lakers front office, I make Gasol, Andrew Bynum and Lamar Odom expendable if it means getting Dwight Howard. Such a trade would extend Kobe’s brilliant career and make them the instant favorites to win the Western Conference

Until such a deal happens, they are the No. 2 contenders to win the exceedingly competitive West.

2. Oklahoma City Thunder

This is the team to beat in the West.

They have the best scorer in the game in Kevin Durant, one of the best point guards in the game in Russell Westbrook, an elite third scorer in James Harden and a frontcourt that can defend anybody in the league with Perkins and Ibaka.

They are one outside shooter away from being unstoppable, but they have to be the scariest team in the West even with their current roster. Their best two players haven’t even turned 23 yet.

While we’re talking about the Thunder, can we please stop this nonsense about a rivalry between Durant and Westbrook? The two are great friends and love playing together. The mistakes they made weren’t because of some feud about who was the alpha dog, it was because they are 22-year-old kids, and that’s what 22 year old NBA players do. They make mistakes.

But great players (which they are both destined to become) learn from those mistakes and get better. There is no reason to believe that won’t happen in OKC. With the Thunder’s nucleus being as young as college kids, the sky is the limit for this team for many years to come.

1. Miami Heat

They have two of the six best players in the world and their third banana is also pretty darn good.

The Heat reached the NBA Finals in their first year together and did so with a supporting cast as bad as Clive Owen had in Children of Men. I expect a healthy Mike Miller for next season, an improved Mario Chalmers and a full season of Udonis Haslem. If they get anything from two of those three players, they will be NBA Champions, period.

If they don’t, it could be another year of failures for America’s Favorite Team to Hate (Miami’s official team name). Of course, deep down, we all know the root of the Heat’s failures: It’s Lebron deciding to hide in the corner when his team needs him most.

If he can overcome whatever it is that makes him do that, there is no way Miami loses the Eastern Conference the next five years and will be heavy favorites regardless of whom they face in the NBA Finals.

They are the most dangerous, and hated, team in the league and have to be the early favorites to win next year’s NBA Championship.