San Francisco 49ers: 9 Things 49ers Must Do to Guarantee NFC West Crown

There is now exactly one week remaining until the official start of the 2011 NFL regular season. Usually excitement surrounds all 32 teams because it is a new start and everyone begins with the same 0-0 record. 

Some fans see their hopes dashed relatively quickly, just ask the 2010 San Francisco 49ers and Dallas Cowboys. But a number of teams are in contention throughout the duration of the season. 

If I had to make a prediction right now, I would say that the St. Louis Rams are the slim favorites to win the NFC West, with the San Francisco 49ers coming in a close second. 

The division has improved to an extent, but it is still the weakest in the entire league. So no team is out of the race, and it should go down to the end of the season. 

The San Francisco 49ers do have many different things they need to improve on and this was apparent during the preseason.

Tonight's final preseason game against the San Diego Chargers will tell us a little about what improvements the 49ers have made in practice, but we already have an idea of what they are going to struggle with during the early stages of the season.

Today, I am going to focus on nine things that need to happen in order for the 49ers to win the division.  

9. 49ers Need to Start off Quick and Grab That Momentum

The 49ers first three opponents this season had a combined 17-31 record in 2010, and two of those games (Seattle and Dallas) are at home.

Additionally, the 49ers will also have the Cleveland Browns and Washington Redskins on their early-season schedule. It is a necessity for them to start strong against weaker competition.  

It goes without saying that teams looking to get into the playoffs must get off to a good start. But for the 49ers, this is magnified. After lofty preseason expectations last year, the 49ers opened up the season 0-5, which was the end of playoff talks.

Following the 0-5 start, the 49ers managed to win six of their final 11 games but fell short in the weak NFC West.

This season San Francisco is going to have a difficult schedule down the stretch, so if they don't get off to the strong start, you could be looking at another missed opportunity for this talented team. 

8. San Francisco 49ers Rookies Need to Step Up

Aldon Smith

The San Francisco 49ers did finish in the top half of the NFL in sacks with 36 last season, but they still need to improve on those numbers this season. 

Accordingly, the 49ers did spend the seventh overall pick on a pass rusher, Aldon Smith from Missouri. Scouting reports called the kid "extremely talented" but "incredibly raw," which pretty much means that he will be an impact player in the NFL, but it wont be during his rookie season.

After watching a lot of tape on Smith following the draft, I came to one conclusion: He already has a pro-ready pass rush move.

The former Missouri Tigers stud is going to struggle in coverage as well as other aspects of the game, but he will get to the quarterback in 2011.

This is something that the 49ers desperately need, a dominating pass rusher. If they can find that in Vic Fangio's aggressive defense, it will only make the unit better all around.

The following is is a scouting report on Aldon Smith from our very own Collin McCollough in April.

"

Smith is primarily projected as a pass-rush threat at the pro level, and given his length, it’s not difficult to imagine why.  The rangy Smith has an impressive arsenal of inside and outside moves, considerable punch and both the speed and quickness to beat tackles around the edge.

"

Chris Culliver

In order for teams to take that next step, more than one draft pick needs to step up as a rookie. Considering that San Francisco spent their second-round pick on Colin Kaepernick, who probably won't make a huge impact in 2011, it is vital that one of their mid-round picks step up.

That man is going to be Chris Culliver, a cornerback from South Carolina. 

Many 49er skeptics were surprised that they took the inexperienced Culliver in the third round of April's draft. He wasn't rated that high on most national boards and had only played corner for a handful of games. 

While it was apparent that San Francisco needed to get an upgrade at the corner position, it wasn't clear if Culliver was going to be that upgrade. 

Well, Culliver has performed at a high level during his first three preseason games and looks to be a real gem. He is solid in man coverage and has better technique than you would expect from a rookie. 

Look for him to get a lot of playing time this season and contribute a great deal to the 49ers' secondary. This might be asking for too much, but it is something that San Francisco desperately needs in 2011. 

7. Play-Calling Needs to Improve from a Dreadful 2010 Season

Play-calling was so bad for the San Francisco 49ers last season that I could predict what play was coming simply due to the formation of the offense. Now imagine how that affected their success on the field with opposing defenses already having a notion of what was coming.

I can honestly say that the San Francisco 49ers' offensive scheme was one of the worse I had seen in the NFL in a long time. They weren't only vanilla but extremely predictable as well. 

Some people coined it the "three yards and a cloud of dust" offense, but I would even go one step further than that.

It was more like gain three yards, then two yards and then an incomplete pass. San Francisco ended up among the league leaders in three-and-out.  

Now the 49ers have brought in Jim Harbaugh, who many considered an offensive "genius" at Stanford. He also brings with him former Stanford offensive coordinator Greg Roman, who will be calling a majority of the plays.

You have to take the preseason for what it was in regards to the 49ers' offensive scheme. They weren't showing their hand in meaningless games. Instead, they wanted to keep opposing defenses confused until the regular season begins. This appears to be a pretty genius move at this point. But it could also backfire a great deal. 

So I fully expect the 49ers to mix it up a great deal this season. They will be running a hybrid west coast offense and using a lot of pre-snap formations in order to confuse the defense.

But if the game-calling doesn't improve from last season, San Francisco has no chance in the NFC West. 

6. The Secondary Needs to Improve Dramatically

Last season, the 49ers ranked 24th overall in pass defense (231.1 yards per game). However, statistics do not tell the entire story.

San Francisco was much worse than that No. 24 ranking would suggest. 

The 49ers were blown out a few times last season and opposing offenses didn't need to pass the ball in the second half during those games. When you are up by two or three touchdowns there really is no reason to pass the ball. All you want to do is run the clock out.

The entire secondary struggled—it just wasn't one player. Nate Clements had his worse season in the NFL, Shawntae Spencer regressed a great deal, Taylor Mays looked confused and Dashon Goldson was downright horrible in coverage.

Well, the 49ers' front office understood that this was a weakness on the team. 

As I mentioned before, the 49ers drafted Chris Culliver in the third round of April's draft. Then following the lockout, they were incredibly aggressive in the free-agent market in regards to the secondary.

The 49ers released Nate Clements and traded Taylor Mays. 

They upgraded at both positions by signing Carlos Rogers and Donte Whitner.

You also have to take into account the defensive scheme and the addition of Ed Donatell, who has extensive experience as defensive coordinator, as their secondary coach. 

I fully expect the 49ers' secondary to be improved in 2011 but that wont be enough.

They need to be vastly improved in order for the 49ers to win the West. 

5. The 49ers Need to Minimize the Amount of Time the Defense in on the Field

The San Francisco 49ers just couldn't get out of their own way on offense last season. They were among the league leaders in three-and-outs, couldn't sustain drives and when they did, they came up empty. 

This had a dramatic impact on the play of the defense. You cannot expect any NFL defense to be on the field as much as the 49ers were last season and be successful.

But the 49ers' defense tried and they were among the league's best when all was said and done. Especially considering the situations they were put in. 

Opposing offenses ran 97 more plays last season than the 49ers did. It doesn't seem like a huge number, but divide that by 16 and you will get what I am talking about.

97 plays means that the 49ers' defense was on the field for approximately one-and-a-half more games than their offense. That is simply amazing. 

The 49ers' offense was 24th in the NFL in first downs and 29th in third down conversions. Needless to say, this needs to get better in 2011 if the 49ers are going to win their division.

Enter into the equation Jim Harbaugh and the 49ers' "new" west coast offense. He promises to mix it up a lot and create mismatches for defenses. San Francisco will be much more successful in sustaining drives and converting on third downs this season simply because the scheme is better.  

More Positives

 San Francisco has much more talent on the offensive side of the ball this season. Frank Gore is fully healthy and they added Braylon Edwards to the mix.

If the offensive line (more on that later) holds up and the play-calling gets better, the San Francisco 49ers could actually have a top-tier offense in the NFL this season.

Remember the 49ers play-calling was horrendous last season, and Frank Gore missed substantial time.

4. 49ers Need to Win Games Inside the NFC West

The NFC West is going to be improved this season but let's face reality: It is still the weakest division in the NFL. 

Last season, the NFC West had a combined record of 25-39 and the four teams went 13-27 outside of the division. So the key to winning the NFC West is going to be beating up on other mediocre to bad teams in the division. 

It isn't that the San Francisco 49ers have not had success in the NFC West, they have: 9-3 in the last two seasons. The issue is that San Francisco has left a couple of those games on the table, especially their loss to the St. Louis Rams in Week 16 last season. 

By my estimation, the 49ers need to go 5-1 in the division in order to win the NFC West. This means that they will need to sweep both Arizona and Seattle, while splitting with the Rams.

Why?

San Francisco's outer-division schedule includes: Dallas, Philadelphia, Tampa Bay, Detroit, the New York Giants, Baltimore and Pittsburgh.

I can honestly only see the 49ers winning two of those games, three at most.

So you have to start looking at mathematics when drawing a conclusion to where the 49ers need to be at the end of the season in order to win the division.

To me it is pretty obvious that the 49ers are better than both Arizona and Seattle. So, theoretically, they should sweep those below-average teams.

But it isn't going to be easy to go into Arizona or Seattle and come out with a win.

This season the NFC West will be won in the NFC West. 

3. Frank Gore Needs to See the Ball and Stay Healthy

The old verbiage in politics says, "So goes Ohio, goes the election." Well, I will add my San Francisco 49ers spin to that.

"If the tank goes, the 49ers will roll."

And this has been proven time and time again. When Frank Gore touches the ball, good things happen and the 49ers win.

The San Francisco 49ers are 20-5 since 2006 when Gore runs the ball 20 times or more. That is a serious indicator of him being extremely important to the success of the team. 

During that same span, the 49ers are 18-7 when he scores a rushing touchdown.

Do you see a common denominator here? Give Frank Gore the ball and you improve your chances to win by a great deal.

Of course, he needs to be healthy and in the game in order to be given the ball, and that is an entirely other issue. But consider this: Frank Gore has only missed 12 games in his six-year career, five coming on the hip injury last season.

The idea that Frank Gore is "injury-prone" might be true, but it doesn't cause him to miss a whole lot of games. 

Jim Harbaugh is known for being a "QB guru" because of what he did with both Josh Johnson and Andrew Luck in college. But one thing missing from the equation is the fact that he loves to run the ball. It won't be that three-yard and a cloud of dust running game we have seen in the past with San Francisco. Instead, you will see a lot of pre-snap motions, which should help Gore out a lot.

If healthy, defenses are going to see a heavy dose of Frank Gore, and that spells success for the San Francisco 49ers in 2011.

2. Alex Smith Needs to Step It Up and Become a Leader on Offense

Here we go again, another Alex Smith topic. Couldn't I find something more interesting to write about? 

Of course I could, but what would be the fun in that? 

But to be serious, Alex Smith is a huge wild card for the San Francisco 49ers this season. He is being given his final chance to prove he is worthy of starting for this heralded franchise, with this being his seventh and final opportunity.

What makes us think it will go any different than the previous six seasons? Well there are a lot of different variables that come into play in regards to Alex Smith this season.

So now that I have presented you with a multitude of questions, here are some answers. Let's look back at Smith's last two seasons with the San Francisco 49ers for a second.

20 starts, 60 percent completion percentage, 4,720 yards, 32 touchdowns, 22 interceptions

Not great, but not that bad, either. Smith has pretty much been an average to above-average starting quarterback the last two seasons. But whether or not you want to believe it, he has progressed a great deal over that span. 

Alex Smith threw only one interception in his final 152 passing attempts last season, while connecting on eight touchdowns. The huge knock on Smith throughout his career has been throwing the ball into coverage and getting it picked. Well, he limited those mistakes last season a great deal. 

Getting off to a slow start is something that has plagued Smith as well. He cannot afford to do that this season, and it has been an issue for Smith over the last two years: 16 of those 22 interceptions have come in the first five games each of the last two seasons.

This has caused the coaching staff and offense to lose confidence in Alex Smith, which leads to instability on offense.

If Alex Smith can get off to a strong start, and the schedule helps that, then the 49ers' offense should be flowing when the more difficult opponents come up. 

You also have to look at the weapons Alex Smith has at his disposal this season. It is by far the best San Francisco 49ers offense since Smith was drafted No. 1 overall in 2005. 

Braylon Edwards adds another dimension to the passing game and enables the 49ers to move Michael Crabtree to the second receiver position and Joshua Morgan into the slot.

Frank Gore is going to be healthy and happy, while Vernon Davis continues to do what VD does: dominate the hashes and make big plays.

There really aren't many excuses anymore: Alex Smith needs to step up, or sit down. 

1. The Offensive Line Needs to Improve Dramatically

Going into this season, I projected the San Francisco 49ers' offensive line to be one of the most improved units in the entire NFL.

So far this preseason, it hasn't worked out that way. The 49ers' offensive line has been one of the worse so far, right up there with the Kansas City Chiefs. They have been unable to pickup blitzes, have been beat on the edge and nearly got both Alex Smith and Colin Kaepernick killed.

This is a huge surprise considering the talent that San Francisco has on that unit. They have invested three first-round picks and a second rounder on the offensive line over the last few seasons.

In 2010, the 49ers spent both of their first-round picks on offensive linemen and earlier this year they signed former Pro Bowl center Jonathan Goodwin to replace David Baas.

The pieces are in place for this to be a solid unit, but they have not been able to put it together yet. If the offensive line can live up to its potential, the San Francisco 49ers should be the favorites to win the division.

If not, they have absolutely no chance to win the NFC West. You cannot expect any quarterback to succeed under the amount of pressure that Alex Smith has seen during the 2011 preseason.

It is incredibly vital that co-offensive line coaches Tom Drevno and Mike Solari fix this issue prior to the 49ers' season opener against the Seattle Seahawks next weekend.

If they don't fix it, the San Francisco 49ers' offense is going to be ugly in 2011.