Derrick Rose: Can the Chicago Bull Repeat as the NBA MVP in 2012?

Derrick Rose famously shocked the world in the preseason last year by asking the question, "Why can't I be MVP?" But he also did by going out and answering that question by winning the award at the end of the season. The question now is: Can he repeat that performance?

When you look at Rose's history there are some things that point in his favor. He is a player who improves during the offseason. Over his first three seasons, he's increased his scoring annually by four points per year. He's increased his PER. 

His commitment to improve had former Bulls head coach Phil Jackson making some pretty hefty comparisons with two players he's become familiar with, Michael Jordan and Kobe Bryant. Prior to the Bulls' second game with the Lakers last season, Jackson commented on how Rose is similar to the great shooting guards in the sense that you expect them to come back every season having developed a new aspect of their game. 

Jackson mentioned how that shows the same kind of drive that Jordan and Bryant have to win a championship. Now in most cases it would seem an over-the-top comparison, but the one person who is qualified to make it is the one who did. 

Rose works on his game, and so as a result you can expect to see some improvement in it this season. He is working on his three-point shot more this year. Last summer he raised his percentage from the arc six percent., raising it to the level of a "passable" 33.2 percent.

Another aspect of his game that should be more apparent is getting to the free throw line. Before New Year's Day last season, he averaged about six free throws per game, after New Year's Day he averaged about 10 per game. 

He'll also be working other aspects of his game. He's said he wants to work on his post game, which considering his size and strength advantage over most point guards, and his incredible 40-inch vertical, could be frightening. 

You should also see an improvement in his passing game. After the Bulls went out and signed a low-post scorer in Carlos Boozer, they didn't fully use him, even when he was healthy. Part of that is on Rose. The Bulls only went to the roll man on the pick-and-roll half as many times as they went to the ball handler. They were the least effective team in the NBA when they did so. 

Last year was the first time at any point in his history—high school, college or pro—where Rose called his own plays. His understanding of the game is developing. But he's something of a film junky, so he's likely to improve in that regard as well.

There are also expected developments that have nothing to do with Rose that should help him. An upgrade at shooting guard should take away some of the pressure on him to score and give him an outlet in the back court. It should also help open up some floor space for him to drive to the basket. 

For all of these reasons it's reasonable to conclude that Rose will probably see an uptick in both his field goal percentage and assist totals. I expect that his scoring will stay around 25 points per game, but that will come on fewer field goal attempts. 

I think a reasonable projection would be around 25 points and 9.0 assists, combined with an effective field goal percentage of around .500 and PER in the mid- to upper-20s. Would that be enough for a second MVP?

It's doubtful. Rose didn't win last year because he was the most valuable player not the best player. For whatever it's worth, normally multiple winners are winning because they are the best player in the league. 

It's hard to win more than once when there are other players who are better. Narrative is hard thing to duplicate. The Bulls won't be a team that comes from nowhere this year. It's not likely that Boozer and Joakim Noah will take turns missing games. Rose isn't going to come out of nowhere and shock the world. 

Now that he's won the MVP he's going to be expected to do certain things like close out games and put together nightly highlight reels. In essence, it's just harder to impress or surprise once you've won. The way to win more than once is to just be the most dominant player in the game.

LeBron James won in consecutive years because he was so clearly the best player in the league and easily the most valuable player at the same time. Jordan and Kareem Abdul-Jabbar were the same. 

James is still the best player in the league. And while I think that Rose is top-five—and he'll cement that status this season—he's still a bit behind James an Dwyane Wade as overall perimeter players. 

Expect the "narrative" to shift to Orlando's Dwight Howard and Miami's Wade, presently the two best players to have never won the MVP. Wade is e at a stage in their career where people are going to start giving them "career achievement" votes. He could, ironically, get the kind of "Kobe" award that Kobe may have taken from him.

Howard will take over the lead on the "value" debate. If you want a good indication of just how impressive Howard is consider this. Both Vince Carter and Jason Richardson's opponent's field goal percentage was about seven percent lower when they were with Orlando.

If you're looking for a sleeper there are a couple of point guards who could emerge as contenders in Chris Paul and Deron Williams. If Williams can lift the Nets to a team that with wins in the mid-50s, he could generate a lot of buzz.  

Paul's role on the team will grow even more crucial as it looks like David West will be moving along. If he can keep the Hornets competing for a top four seed he could get a lot of attention too. Much of that will depend on whether he gets traded away or not though unless he gets traded before the season starts. 

Finally, you can't overlook the scoring leader from the last two years, Kevin Durant, who will generate more buzz, too. But part of that depends on how his relationship with teammate Russell Westbrook develops. 

Expect Rose to improve and the Bulls to compete for a championship. But it's unlikely that Rose will repeat as MVP because he won't be the best player in the league and he won't meet that ethereal definition of "most valuable" either. 

Of course, an NBA Finals MVP might be another question, and it seems that's where he's set his sights this season.