2011 Seattle Seahawks: Odds Matt Hasselbeck, 9 Others Earn Starting QB Role

As much as I'd like to claim I have some hard and fast statistical backing for these numbers, I'm really just relying on gut analysis and hunches.

The frustrating part of the Seahawks' QB search is the front office knows whom its expected starter for 2011 will be—and if not for the CBA issues, the rest of us would, too.

GM John Schneider confirmed at a post-draft press conference the Seahawks have a plan in place that didn't involve drafting a QB in 2011. They just have to wait to execute it.

There are some signs in the water, but it is a fairly murky picture.  

What is clear in this picture is that Matt Hasselbeck wants to return to Seattle. He is working out with "his" teammates and still talks as though he's part of the Seahawks organization.

Donovan McNabb, Washington Redskins: 0.5% Chance He Is Signed as a Free Agent

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EAST RUTHERFORD, NJ - DECEMBER 05: Donovan McNabb #5 of the Washington Redskins looks to throw a pass against the New York Giants on December 5, 2010 at the New Meadowlands Stadium in East Rutherford, New Jersey. The Giants defeated the Redskins 31-7. (

So you're saying there's a chance...

I've included McNabb because a few pundits have tried to get this rumor started.  

My question is "why?"  

He has suffered injuries at a clip every bit as fast as Hasselbeck and hasn't out-performed him.  He has no familiarity with the team, players or organization.  

Kevin Kolb, Philadelphia Eagles: 4.5% Chance He Is Acquired from Eagles

The asking price for Kolb is just too high. He has been up and down while playing for Philadelphia, while showing some promise.  

Expectations for Kolb should still be tempered, and Seattle is likely better served keeping its draft capital and making a move for a prospect in the 2012 NFL Draft.

Bruce Gradkowski, Oakland Raiders or Other Free Agent: 5% Chance at Starting QB

There is a chance a free agent signing steps in and impresses the Seahawks coaching staff enough to earn the starting QB role.

Seattle will need to sign someone to compete for a backup or number three spot. Gradkowski showed enough in Oakland to give Tom Cable a reason to bring him along to Seattle.

Similarly, Tavaris Jackson has the background with Darrell Bevell, and might be signed as depth for Seattle.

Other possibilities are Matt Leinart and Vince Young.  

Neither is likely to get a real shot at a starting QB position, so if Hasselbeck signs elsewhere they both could eye Seattle as a place where they could surprise a coaching staff and have a shot to start.

There are several undrafted free agents that have drawn some attention, and Seattle might sign one for depth.

He won't be starting, though.

Charlie Whitehurst: 10% Chance He Takes over Starting Duties in 2011

The one good pass Whitehurst threw in Week 17...

Despite the Week 17 win vs. the St. Louis Rams, Whitehurst has not shown the skills nor the leadership to take over as starting QB for the Seahawks.

I know some fans want to turn the team over to him to see what he can do and reminisce on the time it took Hasselbeck to get up to speed behind a shoddy Seahawks OL. 

This approach makes sense with a 24-year-old QB taking over a team that isn't in a position to make a run at the playoffs. This allows the QB to grow along with the team, and, in Hasselbeck's case, lead to a decade-long franchise QB.

Whitehurst, however, will be 29 at the start of the season. Is it really worth a year of growing pains for a QB that will start to wear down in three years and shows no real signs of being an above-average passer?

Matt Leinart is a year younger and has shown more capacity in his tenure.

Whitehurst is about as close to the worst-case scenario for Seattle's 2011 starting QB.

Carson Palmer, Cincinnati Bengals: 20% Chance He Is a Seahawk in 2011

This decision comes down to Mike Brown.

If he decides to get some value in return for Palmer, rumored to be between a third- and fifth- round draft pick, then Palmer will likely be headed to Seattle.

This trade could be the plan GM John Schneider said the team had in place, which would give Seattle a few drafts to find the QB it needs for 2013 and beyond.

For fans that aren't sure what Palmer still offers an NFL team, he is throwing well even with the shoulder injury. He was a middle-third QB in 2010 despite the attitude issues with his receiving corp.

Palmer's 2010 stats and placement in the NFL:

3,970 Yards: 6th
248 YPG: 11th
61.8% Completion Percentage: 14th
82.4 QB Rating: 19th
26 TDs: 9th
20 INTs: 3rd-worst (edging out Drew Brees' 22 and Eli Manning with 25) 

Palmer may no longer be among the elite QBs in the NFL, but is certainly a solid starting QB. He could flourish in Seattle, as he would be out of a dysfunctional organization and away from the locker room issues that hinder the Bengals offense.

Matt Moore, Carolina Panthers: 20% Chance He Is a Seahawk in 2011

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This may come as a surprise to a lot of fans, but it is time Moore begins to get some attention as a potential starting QB in the NFL.

In a May 23rd article I listed Moore as the most underrated free agent QB. 

The Sporting News followed my story with an article on May 26th, and numerous publications have run with the story since then—but 20,000 Bleacher Report readers saw it here first.

Panthers head coach Ron Rivera has stated Moore "can get involved in our QB situation."  Moore played on a team devoid of talent at wide receiver and tight end, and it was very thin on the offensive line.  

Still, Moore posted the team's best performance last season.

Coming out of the bye week, he was 28-41 for 308 yards, 2 TDs, and 1 INT, good for a 96.4 QB rating. His opponent was the San Francisco 49ers, who gave up similar numbers to Kevin Kolb a few weeks earlier.

Moore was injured two weeks later, eventually landing on injured reserve and needing surgery to repair a torn labrum in his right shoulder.  

A more in-depth summary on Moore, including his franchise stats and a review of his capacity: Moore's free agency push.

Overall, Moore was unimpressive in 2010, posting 10 INTs with only five TDs. 

However, he showed significant promise on a better 2009 Panther team. In five starts, he was 85-138, 1,053 yards, 8 TDs, and 2 INTs for a QB Rating of 98.5. Replacing the injured Jake Delhomme in Week 12, Moore led the team to a 4-1 finish.

It is unclear what it will take to sign Moore as a free agent, as his four years in the NFL could make him an unrestricted free agent under a new bargaining agreement.  

Even if he is a restricted free agent, it is unlikely the Panthers would match an offer sheet. Further, they applied an "original round tender."

Since Moore wasn't drafted, an interested team will most likely be able to pick him up for nothing beyond the cost of the offer sheet. 

Matt Hasselbeck: 40% Chance He Returns to Lead the Seahawks

The math wizards among my readers will quickly realize this is less than a 50/50 chance that Hasselbeck is a Seahawk in 2011.

As much as I want to say the odds are better, there is too much uncertainty with who will be available for Seattle to bring into camp.  

If Seattle isn't able to sign or make a sensible deal for one of the aforementioned QBs, look for the team to expand its offer sheet for Hasselbeck.

While many fans are done with Hasselbeck and feel he needs to move on, he still has the skill set to be a top-15 QB in the NFL. He needs protection, though, and a balanced offense.

He will prove that in 2011—it just might be in a different shade of blue.

Peter King is claiming, after spending time with Seattle GM John Schneider, that Hasselbeck won't be back with the Seahawks in 2011. King didn't come out and say his opinion was based on anything Schneider said, but the inference is there.

And unfounded.

Schneider hardly seems like the type of GM that is going to tip the team's hand to one of its scouts, let alone a national writer for ESPN. King is going off a hunch, the same as the rest of the NFL analysts; he didn't get information from Schneider on Hasselbeck's future with Seattle.

King projects Hasselbeck going to the Cardinals, with Tennessee, Miami, and Minnesota as the next likely landing spots.  

I do not see Arizona as a point of interest unless the Cardinals can do something—and quickly—about the lack of talent on their offensive line.

Hasselbeck has been brutally beaten the last four years in Seattle, affecting his health and production. The last thing the 35-year-old signal caller needs is a repeat of 2009.

Hasselbeck doesn't fit the mold of the Dolphin offense. While they need to look at options at QB, I see them gambling on Terrelle Pryor running a Wildcat offense before bringing Hasselbeck to camp.

The Titans are still my front-runner for Hasselbeck's services in 2011. This goes back to the week before the draft, when I predicted Jake Locker would go to the Titans at No. 8 and they would sign Hasselbeck to mentor him.

One down, one to go.

The Titans have a solid OL and one of the best rushing games around. Give them a pocket QB that can work the field with his eyes and they could have one of the most potent offenses in the league.

Hasselbeck wearing Titan blue is a distinct possibility, particularly if the Seahawks spend too much time pursuing other options at the QB position in 2011.