NBA Playoffs 2011: Finals Decide If LeBron James or Dirk Nowitzki Is NBA's Best

With the 2011 NBA Championship up for grabs, the Miami Heat and the Dallas Mavericks, the same two teams who met previously in what became the most controversial NBA Finals in history, and LeBron James and Dirk Nowitzki, two of the best players in NBA history facing each other, this NBA Finals already has all that anyone would want. Add into the mix that Nowitzki is a foreign basketball star, that this game could determine who is the best player the NBA, that Mark Cuban, the NBA's most controversial owner, is involved and that LeBron James has already been anointed as the best in history by Scottie Pippen, and you have an NBA Finals that could go down as one of the most significant in NBA history.

Whatever else happens over the next two weeks, this series should determine the best player in the NBA today.

While many will argue that there are others who should be in the mix, like Kobe Bryant, we have already had answers for each, including the view Laker management has of Bryant. Too much Bryant, not enough team. For once, we should be able to decide the best player on the floor in the Finals. And that player will not only be the best in the NBA today, but could also serve as the NBA's face over the next several years.

In answering this question, we need to be very careful that a made-for-TV ending is not being crafted by anyone other than the players on the floor and coaches on the benches.

History has a way of repeating itself, especially when the NBA is involved. How many "three-peats" have there been? Were they all justified?

There are those who might say they were not. In fact, some believe these three-peats and the last Mavs-Heat NBA Finals were determined not by the players but by the NBA and its referees.

To these fans, this game will be yet another opportunity for the NBA to show how it can change the outcome of games and any series it chooses to ensure that the more marketable team wins.

Questions about the NBA and its referees have lingered from the very beginning of the NBA. Unlike any other sport, NBA referees are in a very unusual position to determine outcomes of evenly matched games.

And for several years, especially since the 2006 NBA Finals and the conviction of NBA referee Tim Donaghy, NBA conspiracy theories have abounded regarding whether that Finals, and in fact many other games and series, have been manipulated by the NBA to allow the most marketable team and players to win.

Could the one question effect the other? Will the answer to both questions—who is the best player in the NBA today, and what team will win the 2011 NBA Championship—be determined by the NBA and its referees rather than the two players and the teams on the floor?

Of course they could.

Indeed, there is one top-3 statistic that stands out over all the others. One statistic that could mean that LeBron is already the chosen one. Already the one who is considered, if not made, the best in the NBA.

Thus, LeBron James is already tied for ninth on the all-time list for free throw attempts. To compare James with Jordan, Jordan was in the top-3 in free throw attempts only seven times in his entire 15 NBA seasons. James, only in his eighth season, already has five.

At this point in history, who is better for the NBA even if the NBA were to choose a winner? Even if some critical whistles in close games could change the outcome, would the NBA choose LeBron James or Dirk Nowitzki as its face for the future?

We have no idea. Each have their own merits.

For a start, let's look at the careers of the two stars and see if we can decide who is best today based on their current records and without the upcoming Finals.

Who is Better—Dirk Nowitzki or LeBron James?

We can start with the best player on each team. About this, there is little controversy. LeBron James, also known as "King James" since long before coming to Miami, is the Heat's best player. And Dirk Nowitzki is clearly the best player on the Mavs roster.

But who is better? For that matter, could either of them become the NBA's GOAT (Greatest of All Time)?

If you had asked most NBA fans and writers before the 2011 NBA Playoffs began who is the better player, the answer would have overwhelmingly favored LeBron James. Hardly a writer, a fan or a TV commentator would have chosen Dirk Nowitzki.

The reasons are simple. James has been the central point of NBA promotion since he entered the league. No other player has been as promoted. And no other player has done so well after the first few years.

Yet, a simple statement made about Dirk Nowitzki made some look back at his record and come away with the conclusion that Nowitzki could be one of the all-time greats. He could even be the best player in the game today.

Let's start with the similarities in assessing these players. They are remarkable.

James led his Cleveland Cavaliers team to the NBA Finals in 2007 where he and his team were swept by the San Antonio Spurs in four straight games.

In 2006, Nowitzki led his team to the NBA Finals, losing to Miami in six games after taking a 2-0 lead.

LeBron James had momentum for becoming the GOAT before he even joined the NBA. James signed a Nike shoe contract even before he was an NBA player. James was an instant sensation, playing at a high level from the get-go and becoming the NBA's Rookie of the Year.

Dirk Nowitzki was born in Wurzburg, Germany. Instead of taking to basketball early, Nowitzki tried other sports before basketball. With height as his biggest advantage, Nowitzki became a huge basketball talent in large part because his long-time coach, Holger Geschwindner, convinced him to begin a practice regime which continues to this day.

Nowitzki and Geschwindner developed a unique game for the seven-footer that continues to excel at the perimeter and on the foul line. Few close to his height have had his shooting touch. Fewer still have had the combination of skills that have kept him at the top of the NBA for the last 11 seasons.

These players' career statistics are still works in progress. James has greater opportunity to improve than Nowitzki. They are remarkably similar today.

To begin with, Nowitzki has been in the NBA for 12 years, while LeBron James has been in the NBA for only 8 years. This provides James less of an opportunity to be able to be in any statistical category. On the other hand, it also provides him with less time to have had a down year.

Nowitzki is listed as a player with the most seasons of top-10 statistics in defensive rebounds (tied for seventh with Larry Bird and others), points (tied for ninth with Oscar Robinson and others), points per game (tied for ninth with Wilt Chamberlain, Oscar Robinson and others), offensive rating (tied for sixth with Michael Jordan and others), turnover percentage (tied for eighth), offensive rating (tied for sixth with Michael Jordan), offensive win shares (tied for fourth with Michael Jordan), and win shares (tied for fourth with Oscar Robinson and Michael Jordan)(win shares are a statistic used since the 1951-52 season to determine how much a player has contributed to a given win by his team).

James is listed in two of these top-10 categories: turnovers (tied for fourth with Karl Malone, John Stockton and Jason Kidd), and minutes per game (tied for 10th with Michael Jordan and others).

When one looks at the same statistics, but this time in the top-3, we still end up with James and Nowitzki tied for sixth with Larry Bird in win shares, with Nowitzki tied for eighth with Magic Johnson and others in win shares per 48 minutes, and with the two in a few other categories, including Nowitzki in several important offensive categories.

It is amazing how close both Nowitzki and James are in leading win shares per 48 minutes for the regular season and playoffs. Both players have led the league in regular season win shares per 48 minutes, with three each in consecutive seasons. For the playoffs, Nowitzki led in three playoff seasons, James in two.

If there is a huge difference between the players, the biggest is their teams. The Miami Heat today is one of the best teams ever assembled in the NBA. So were Michael Jordan's teams, and Larry Bird's teams. Yet, Nowitzki is most often compared to Larry Bird.

Nowitzki has never played on a team close to these players' teams.

Embarrassing as it is, although Bird was great, he played with so many greats that it is very questionable if he could have done close to as well as Nowitzki with the same talent. In one of his NBA championship years, Bird played on a team some still consider the best in NBA history.

If anything, James' year with the Heat has not yet effected his statistics as much as it could in later years. So far, James arguably managed to do better with less talent even than Nowitzki.

Thus, no matter what way you look at, there is not enough of a difference in the past to warrant choosing one player over the other. This year, the advantage goes to James because of the talent on his club, and the relative ages of the teams' players. But overall, we are looking at two very similar players.

In the end, winning a championship could serve as more importance for separating these players. And for that reason alone, this series takes on more importance than most in the past.

This NBA Championship could decide whether we rate one player above the other.

Will the Referees Have an Impact?

There were many who claimed a conspiracy during that last and only NBA Finals for the Mavs. For some time, many believed that there were NBA referees who tried to help a team win games for a variety of reasons. Among these were that the NBA wanted bigger market teams to win, as they also wanted big stars to win.

In Blowing the Whistle, a book by Donaghy who was convicted of fixing NBA games, several important facts are outlined concerning the ways in which games were fixed. Among others, Donaghy cited the sixth game of the 2002 Western Conference Finals in which Dick Bavetta, a referee Donaghy called a master at manipulating games to make them close, allegedly went to work to allow "the better team" to "win Game 7." With Sacramento leading LA 3-2, and a fourth quarter seemingly requiring a miracle for LA, one materialized as fouls were repeatedly called against Sacramento.

"If we give the benefit of the calls to the team that's down in the series, nobody's going to complain. The series will be even at three apiece, and then the better team can win Game 7," Bavetta stated.

As history shows, Sacramento lost Game 6 in a wild come-from-behind thriller that saw the Lakers repeatedly sent to the foul line by the referees. For other NBA referees watching the game on television, it was a shameful performance by Bavetta's crew, one of the most poorly officiated games of all time.

The most historically significant collapse in looking at whether the NBA effects championships was the last one in which the Heat met the Mavericks. Leading 2-0, the Mavs lost four straight to the Miami Heat and lost the NBA Championship.

In reviewing this series, many have tried to demonstrate that the championship was lost due to officiating. Perhaps the most studied analysis is in NBA Conspiracy Analysis by J. Irvin Liu. In that study, Liu applied a model developed by sports statistician Roland Beech to determine whether a game was rigged by officials to Game 6 of the Mavs-Heat 2006 Finals, and specifically the number of free throws attempted and made by Dwayne Wade, the most significant game in that Finals.

. . . Game 5 of the 2006 NBA Finals . . . is widely considered one of the most poorly officiated games. The poor officiating was enough to incite more rumors of conspiracy theory. First, it is worth noting that Shaquille O'Neal is featured in both of these games. Heat star guard, Dwyane Wade shot a total of25 free throws, equaling the entire Dallas team total. Wade's regular season free throw attempt average was 10.69 with a standard deviation of 4.86. The 25 free throws shot definitely raises a red flag about the officiating of the game. . . . Based on my very subjective analysis, I concluded that the Heat received a net of 8.5 unearned points, more than enough to cover their one-point win.

Despite this finding, Liu determined that there was not enough evidence that there was an NBA conspiracy to throw any game or series to Miami. And although it is very difficult to ignore Donaghy's claims, in the end we will have to wait and see for this current series. Thus, even if there were some inclination to anoint the Heat as NBA Champion in 2006, there is no evidence that, in the face of increased scrutiny caused by Donaghy's book and so much written about the 2006 NBA Finals, anyone would be so stupid to attempt to throw even one game in the 2011 NBA Finals to any particular team.

Will the best player in the NBA be crowned by the 2011 NBA Finals?

So we end with the ultimate question. Will these finals determine who is best in the NBA today? For that matter, is there any possibility, especially after the very curiously timed proclamation of Scottie Pippen that LeBron James is better than Jordan, that Dirk Nowitzki has a chance of being considered the best player in the NBA today no matter who wins the championship and what the players do?

The guideposts that do exist make the answer very difficult to determine today.

The NBA clearly has not wanted Nowitzki as its face despite his already proven greatness. Even accepting him as one of the game's very best has been difficult. There is something decidedly inappropriate about anointing someone not an American as the best in America's game. And there are things that make this shootout especially difficult to predict.

But for this moment in time, the comments are starting, the bandwagon is building and the NBA is pressured, as are their athletes no doubt, to crown Miami once again champion, and LeBron James as the heir to Michael Jordan.

Only Nowitzki stands in their way. If the Mavs should win the championship and he is not considered the best in the NBA today, it should be clear that he cannot do anything to become the best. So far, during the regular season, even when the foul shooting was horribly imbalanced in favor of James and the Heat, Nowitzki and the Mavs won. If foul shooting is anywhere close to even, Nowitzki should get his due, and the Mavs an overdue championship.