NBA Draft 2011: Houston Rockets Post-Lottery Best and Worst Case Draft Scenarios
The Houston Rockets never had a shot at winning the NBA draft lottery. No secret there.
Being the only team to miss the postseason with a winning record gave them less than a one percent chance of stealing the top selection, the hopes of which were sapped seconds into the lottery presentation when the owner of the 14th overall pick was announced.
Just because the ping pong balls didn't bounce their way doesn't mean the Rockets can't retrieve a top-three pick.
General Manager Daryl Morey has a number of valuable veterans under movable contracts, which he can use to trade up for a player he believes can become the face of the franchise for the next decade.
It's questionable whether or not anyone other than Duke point guard Kyrie Irving and Arizona forward Derrick Williams is worth the trouble.
There are some attractive prospects expected to be lingering at No. 14, but the Rockets' best case scenario in the 2011 NBA Draft involves moving up the board.
Morey has been trying to do it for years. He made a hard push to move up two spots to draft Brandon Roy in 2006. He was relentless in his pursuit of Ricky Rubio in 2009.
There are rumors that the Minnesota Timberwolves, Utah Jazz and Sacramento Kings are open to trading the No. 2, No. 3 and No. 7 picks that they respectively own.
The best case scenario is Morey trading a veteran and the No. 14 selection to the Utah Jazz for the No. 3 pick. In this scenario, the Rockets would likely consider Enes Kanter, center from Turkey, and Jan Vesely, a small forward from the Czech Republic.
Vesely should be the pick. He's 6'11," and 240 pounds of pure athleticism. How many players with that physique can you say that about? Vesely has been referred to by some scouts as the "Euro Blake Griffin."
That should be reason enough to pick him.
Vesely is a great finisher, and his range and shooting touch are improving. Most important, however, is the fact that he's already being compared to Andrei Kirilenko on the defensive end.
No matter what you think of AK47, there's no denying that he has been one of the better all-around defenders to come through the NBA in the past decade.
Outside of Irving, Williams and Kemba Walker, this draft is purely based on potential. Vesely has loads of it, but he's also ready to contribute now. Is Kanter? Scouts question whether he has the athleticism to be elite at the NBA level.
As important as it is to have a great center...well, is it that important?
Look at the starting centers for Oklahoma City, Dallas, Miami and Chicago, the NBA's final four. Kendrick Perkins, Tyson Chandler, Joel Anthony and Joakim Noah are all integral role players on their respective teams. Not one is a star, and yet all four clubs managed to reach the conference finals.
Now look at their small forwards: Kevin Durant, Dirk Nowitzki, LeBron James and Luol Deng. The first three are top-five NBA stars. The 3 spot tends to produce the most superstars, and while no one should suggest that Vesely is going to become Durant, Dirk or King James, the potential is there.
Did anyone think that pale, scrawny, awkward seven-footer out of Germany was going to turn into an MVP, perennial All-Star and future Hall of Famer? Not likely.
If Morey needs a reason to take a chance on an unknown commodity from across the Atlantic, all he has to do is bear witness to Nowitzki's performance in the ongoing 2011 playoffs.
No risk, no reward. Move up, take a risk with Vesely and hope for a good return.
There are a number of lousy scenarios for Houston on draft night, but nothing would top the combination of standing pat at 14 and selecting any of the touted power forwards this draft has to offer.
Start with the first part of that equation—standing pat.
The front office has talked a lot about acquiring a superstar through trade, free agency or the draft, yet it continues to come up empty. The failure and disappointment rivals that of missing the postseason for the last two years and, in a way, the two go hand-in-hand.
Let's pretend that Houston exhausts all of its options and is forced to pick at 14. The worst case scenario here would be selecting Kansas forward Markieff Morris.
This isn't a knock on Morris. He's a fine player who helped the Jayhawks win a ton of games throughout the last three seasons.
But not only would he be joining the Rockets' glut of power forwards, he isn't even the best Morris in the draft. That would be his brother, Marcus, who is projected to go in the top 10.
In this case, Houston would add a player that plays the same position as Luis Scola, Chuck Hayes and Patrick Patterson (good luck finding minutes there). It also runs the risk of watching his brother become the better NBA player, causing the organization to become the brunt of every joke and negative comparison between the two if Markieff doesn't cut it.
Nothing good can come from that pick, or any power forward for that matter.
Things are beginning to get stale in Clutch City. Fans need a reason to believe in the direction the franchise is headed.
Pressure is on Morey and Co. to deliver.
They best choose wisely.
