2011 San Francisco Giants: Is Their Fast Start an Illusion or Reality?
Ever been to one of those Vegas shows where the artful illusionist wows the crowd with seemingly impossible feats of magic?
The secret, experts say, is distracting the audience long enough that they miss the magician's sleight of hand.
Nearly one-third through the 2011 season, the Giants have been producing magic, taking early control of the NL West. Entering this week's home series against the Florida Marlins, the Giants had:
-Won five straight overall
-Swept three consecutive series at AT&T, winning nine in a row since April 24
-Won 14 out of their last 18 overall
From a distance, it might seem that San Francisco is well-positioned to mount a serious defense of its World Series title. Great pitching and a rickety NL West can't be discounted.
A closer look, however, reveals some reasons to wonder about the legitimacy of this club's ability to go the distance.
Here are six questions to consider in determining if the 2011 Giants are the real deal, or merely the illusion of a contender.
How Long Before the Pitching Staff Wears Down?
1 of 6
Thank goodness for the Giants pitching staff—its been Bruce Bochy's only consistently dependable unit. And fans ought to be worried about it wearing down from chronically anemic run support and inconsistent defense.
The Giants have scored three or fewer runs in 27 of their 47 games. That's placed enormous pressure on the pitching staff to be near-perfect every time out. And they've performed brilliantly, surrendering fewer hits and home runs than any other staff in the NL and an overall ERA of 3.17—the third-lowest in the MLB.
But, using the Phillies as a benchmark, it's clear that the Giants staff operates on a much thinner margin:
-Philadelphia has a net run differential of +34 (189 scored; 155 surrendered); the Giants differential is -1 (164 scored; 165 surrendered). That means the Giants are playing more tight, high-stress games
-The Giants staff has surrendered only one earned run more (149) than the Phillies (148), but over twice as many unearned runs (16 to the Phillies seven). That's a result of the Giants defense having committed nearly twice as many errors (33) as Philadelphia (18)
Read on for more on these disturbing offensive and defensive trends, but suffice to say here that expecting the pitching staff to protect such thin margins is asking for trouble in the long run.
When Will the Offense Wake Up?
2 of 6
Lots of easy pickings here; the Giants 3.49 runs scored per game ranks ahead of only the Dodgers and Padres. (telling that the three lowest-scoring clubs in the NL are from the West).
No lineup regular is batting over .287—although that will change when Pablo Sandoval returns.
Even more sobering is a closer look at a supposedly "indispensable" part of the offense—Pat Burrell.
Signed in 2010 after he was unceremoniously dumped by Tampa Bay, the immensely popular Burrell delivered: in only 96 games, he contributed 18 homers and led the club in slugging percentage. His flame-out in the World Series (0-13, 11 strikeouts) was quickly forgotten.
He opened 2011 with something of a bang, homering in four of his first nine games. He was batting .270 with five HR's on April 24.
Since then, Burrell has gone into the deep freeze. Over his last 24 games, Burrell is batting .189 (10 for 53) with three RBI's. His season average has dipped to .233, with more strikeouts (39) than hits (27). He's gone over a month without a home run.
This isn't meant to single out Burrell; nevertheless, what does it say about the Giants that he is still regarded as a major cog in their (increasingly offensive) offense?
Can They Patch the Defensive Leaks?
3 of 6
Miguel Tejada has become a convenient whipping-boy for the Giants generally poor 2011 defensive play. But his seven errors and .956 fielding percentage aren't an aberration; the defending champs have collectively been less mentally and tactically sharp than expected.
It's been especially problematic in the infield where the prolonged absence of Pablo Sandoval has kept Tejada in the lineup and made Mike Fontenot—a journeyman utility player—a mainstay at shortstop.The former Cub is second in errors (four) and has the worst fielding percentage (.951) among regular position players.
Mental errors are occurring too frequently, as well. Jonathan Sanchez got a dressing-down in the middle of a start for failing to cover first; Aubrey Huff instigated a Rockie rally in Colorado with a poor throw and inexplicably watched a James Loney grounder bounce past him for a hit in L.A. (in a game the Giants ultimately won).
To be fair, there have been some spectacular plays lately from Freddie Sanchez and Nate Schierholtz, and the Giants haven't yet allowed defensive miscues to become a major distraction.
But if the defense doesn't tighten up, the pitching staff may eventually buckle under the pressure.
.png?w=256)
What's Up with Huff?
4 of 6
Brian Sabean signed Aubrey Huff last winter to a two-year deal, to much acclaim from Giants fans.
Perhaps too much?
Huff's 2010 on-field performance and intangible contributions were essential to the Giants title run. His choice of underwear aside, the veteran assumed a major leadership role, taking untold pressure off of others in the clubhouse.
Sabean gambled that Huff's 2010 performance (.290, 26 HR's, 86 RBI's, .506 SLG) could be replicated at an age, 34, when numbers often begin to decline.
Huff's 2011 averages (.222, .351 SLG) are way down and his current power numbers project to 14 HR's and 74 RBI's over a full season. Not awful, but not what Sabean expected, either.
It's worth noting that Huff quietly soldiered on when Bochy moved him to the outfield while Cody Ross was DL'd and Brandon Belt had his brief April call-up. Huff at times embarrassed himself, but he never complained.
It's worth wondering, though, how long Bruce Bochy can tolerate Huff's sluggish production as a middle-of-the-order guy and occasional mental lapses.
Have Bad Free Agent Deals Finally Caught Up with Them?
5 of 6
Brian Sabean knew he had to pursue a new long-term strategic direction as the Bonds era neared its end. Developing home-grown pitching was the first priority, followed by position players.
That succeeded: the 2011 Giants feature four home-grown starters (five, including Ryan Vogelsong). Sabean concurrently pursued free agents while waiting for his farm system to produce position players.
Aaron Rowand was signed in late 2007 for five years at $60 million after a career season in Philadelphia. After two years in which Rowand matched his career averages (17 HR's, 66 RBI's), his productivity has steadily dwindled. He is signed through 2012, but not producing now.
Pat Burrell was dumped by Tampa Bay in 2010; he produced impressive regular-season numbers for San Francisco after signing in midseason. Sabean resigned him for $1 million for 2011; he's not producing.
Miguel Tejada produced 15 HR's and 71 RBI's for two clubs in 2010; Sabean signed Tejada, 37, for one year to fill the void when Juan Uribe signed in the offseason with the Dodgers. He's not producing, either.
Mark Derosa was signed by Sabean in 2010 for two years, at age 35, after an injury-plagued 2009 with St. Louis. For $12 million, Derosa produced 13 RBI's before reinjuring his left wrist. But, we're told, he was a great clubhouse presence.
Barry Zito was signed in 2007, for seven years and $126 million. In fairness, this was an ownership move, but still: 40-58; average WHIP (base runners allowed per inning pitched) of 1.44. And he's under contract for another two years.
The point is presumably clear: The Giants are saddled with contractual obligations to underperforming (or, in Derosa's case, disabled) veterans. That may weigh heavily on Sabean in attempting to improve the club through a midseason trade.
Who's the Shortstop?
6 of 6
If you've read this far, you presumably can see that the Giants need an alternative to their current roster options at shortstop.
And if you accept the bromide that good baseball clubs are strong up the middle, this is clearly their greatest area of vulnerability:
C: Posey (+)
2B: F. Sanchez (+)
CF: Torres (+)
SS: Tejada, Fontenot (-)
When Pablo Sandoval returns, Tejada's innings at third base disappear. Do you really believe Bruce Bochy wants to play Tejada at SS on a regular basis? Fontenot, while an able fill-in, is a journeyman; the Giants are better off having him spell Sanchez occasionally at 2B and be a late-inning, left handed bat off the bench.
If not Tejada or Fontenot, then who? Of the most talked-about prospects:
Jose Reyes is costly, could only be a two-month rental and is suspect in some respects;
Seattle's Jack Wilson isn't even playing the position; he's been at 2B for all but one game this year.
You wonder if the Giants might give Manny Burriss a shot. Or, talk to the Chicago White Sox about acquiring Omar Vizquel. At age 44, he might be an upgrade.
.png?w=480)
.jpg?w=600 "Colts Release Kenny Moore")
