NBA Playoffs 2011: 10 Reasons Derrick Rose Is Having a More Valuable Postseason
Derrick Rose has the Chicago Bulls looking to get to the Eastern Conference finals and perhaps beyond for the first time in over a decade. In spite of that fact thought there are some who are making the argument that Rose's postseason is proof that he shouldn't have been the regular season MVP.
They point to his subpar field goal percentage (41 percent) and his turnovers (four per game) and want to evaluate his entire performance based on two stats alone. However there's more to the postseason than missed shots and turnovers.
If you evaluate the totality of Rose's postseason, you could make a fair argument that not only is his postseason on par with his regular season, it exceeds it. Following are 10 reasons that Derrick Rose is having an even better postseason than regular season.
10: Fighting Through Injury
1 of 10
Derrick Rose sprained his ankle in Game 4 of the Pacers series. It was determined to be a Grade 2 ankle sprain, meaning that the ligament is partially torn. Most players don't play at all with a Grade 2 sprain. That's the kind of sprain where most players hobble on the sidelines, then figure that they can't go in.
This is something that's often not said about what Rose is playing through. Not only is he playing rather impressively for his injury, it's impressive that he's playing at all with his injury.
Compare his second round to Kobe Bryant's, who is widely considered to be one of the 10 greatest players of all time, and a player noted for his toughness and willingness to play through injury. Bryant has a similar ankle sprain but Rose has played a better second round than Kobe.
Rose has 5.7 more points, 6.0 more assists, 1.3 more rebounds than Kobe while only giving up two more turnovers, and only 1.5 percent in effective field goal percentage in the second round.
This is not making excuses. Excuses aren't needed. Rose closed out the first series with his ankle injury, leading the Bulls to their best game of the series with it. He has the Bulls holding a 2-1 lead in the second round. There's no need for excuses.
However, it's simply stubborn to not acknowledge that a player like Rose, who depends so much on his speed isn't going to be effected by his ankle sprain. His burst of speed is what enables him to do the thing which he does best, get to the rim and finish.
Great players adjust their game when they need to and the overlooked adjustment that Rose has made to his offense is to involve his teammates. Before his injury Rose was averaging 5.7 assists per game. Since the injury he's been averaging 8.6 assists per game. It's not like his scoring has fallen off a cliff either. He's averaging 26.6 points per game with the sprain.
9: Blocks
2 of 10Derrick Rose blocked 51 shots this year, which is the most ever by a point guard who dished at least five assists per game.
Whether there are any others I'm not sure, but that's certainly enough to qualify Rose as one of the great shot blocking point guards of all time.
His postseason has followed suit. With 1.3 blocks per game Rose leads all point guards in blocked shots, and trails only Dwyane Wade (who is the best shot blocking shooting guard ever) among all guards. No other guard is even blocking one shot per game. Harden is third with 0.9.
That he's managed to still block 1.2 blocks per game with the ankle injury is all the more remarkable.
8: Steals
3 of 10Rose has been quite the thief during the playoffs as well as hosting his own block party. In fact, there are no players remaining in the playoffs who are averaging more steals than Rose. There can be no question about it, Rose has been one of the biggest playmakers on defense in the postseason.
In fact, only Serge Ibaka, 33, and Joakim Naoh, 28 have more than Rose's combined 26 steals plus blocks in the postseason. Wade has the same average in one fewer game and Josh Smith has the same total with one more game.
That Rose is hanging with the players who make their bones playing defense and Dwyane Wade is compelling. He is not just delivering on one side of the ball.
And it's not just in the big plays either. Based on data from Synergy, only 45 of the opponents points have been charged to Rose's account during the entire postseason. This has come on 80 plays run at Rose. That's an average of only .56 points per play during the postseason.
Furthermore his defensive rating of 100 is the lowest of any point guard remaining in the playoffs and is second only to Dwyane Wade.
A very good argument can be made that Derrick Rose has been the best defensive point guard in the postseason. He's not just playing one side of the ball.
7: Rebounds
4 of 10
Derrick Rose is also third among all remaining point guards in rebounds per game. However that is more impressive than it sounds. The only two point guards ahead of him are Rajon Rondo and Russell Westbrook.
The difference is that the Bulls frontcourt is so much better at rebounding than either Oklahoma City or Boston. Boston's starting frontcourt has a total rebound percentage of 28.5 percent. Oklahoma City's is 31.2 percent. Chicago's is 36.9 percent.
Even at small forward the Bulls rebound better as Luol Deng's rebound percentage exceeds Paul Pierce, 7.5 percent and Kevin Durant, 8.7 percent. This means that there is a far lower percentage of rebounds available for Rose. When Boozer and Noah are on the bench, Rose's rebound total goes up over half a rebound per 36 minutes.
That Derrick Rose is among the top rebounding point guards in spite of the fact that he has the best rebounding frontcourt in the NBA is impressive to say the least. Virtually every one of his rebounds are hustle rebounds.
6: Assists
5 of 10Derrick Rose ability to penetrate and cause defenses to collapse entirely on him leaves his teammates wide open. Rose's high basketball IQ lets him know when to pass it and when to drive it. What is so impressive is that when the game is on the line, he's not afraid to do either, and almost always seems to make the right choice.
Of players remaining in the postseason, only Rajon Rondo has more assists per game. Derrick Rose is the only player in the postseason right now averaging 28 points and seven assists and two steals. In fact, the only other players to accomplish that into the second round are LeBron James, Michael Jordan, and Allen Iverson.
Rose is the youngest to ever do it.
5: Points
6 of 10To listen to some people yammer on about his field goal percentage you'd get the impression that Rose is missing all his shots. While his field goal percentage could be better, his scoring hasn't been exactly scarce. In fact, his 28.9 points is the second best in the posteason, behind only Kevin Durant.
When you take the totality of the aforementioned stats, you have an historically impressive postseason. Only one other player has ever had a postseason averaging 28 points, seven assists, four rebounds, two steals and one block per game. He did it twice.
I'll let you guess who it was but I'll give you a hint. He wore the same uniform.
4: PER
7 of 10
I'm not a big fan PER, but I know that some people are going to accuse me of leaving it out on purpose if I don't include it and accuse me of having it here even though I don't really agree with the methods (because it doesn't account for unassisted field goals) it entails and have gone on record as saying so.
So before you get yourselves all in worked up over it, know that it's here to appease you. Of those who have 200 or more minutes played and remain alive, Derrick Rose is fourth overall in PER for the postseason with a PER of 26.4, and first at his position.
There are two things about this that are impressive. Firstly, it's an improvement of 2.9 over his regular season PER, which certainly indicates that he's improved over his regular season stats. If you believe in PER then you have to acknowledge that Rose's postseason has been a step up from his regular season.
Bear in mind that typically a player's PER is going to fall in the postseason as the level of competition is higher. In fact, even among the most elite players remaining there is a drop off. There are 11 players still in the playoffs who had a regular season PER of at least 20. On average their postseason PER is down .6.
Of the 11 only five players have improved their PER, Rose among them. The other four are Durant, Wade, James and Dirk Nowitzki.
Of the the players who were in the top 100 in the regular season and remain in the postseason, only Wade, Ibaka and Jason Terry have a higher difference in their PER than Rose.
The second reason this is impressive is that it doesn't account for shots created. APER would be a far better indicator of true value as it adjusts for actual unassisted field goals rather than use estimates. While hoopsstats apparently isn't keep track of APER for the postseason, based on regular season comparisons Rose and Wade should be neck and neck right now with an APER of somewhere around 31.
3: Wins Shares Per 48 Minutes
8 of 10
Win Shares per 48 minutes is another one of those metrics the advanced stats crowd likes to use. I tend to not be as impressed with this because once again it fails to account for unassisted field goals. It also tends to place too much emphasis on rebounding and not enough much on assists.
Aside from that there are just too many things that don't pass the basic smell test. Ray Allen as the fourth best player in the postseason or Joakim Noah as the sixth? James Harden 16th over Kobe Bryant at 18th? Jason Terry 12th over Rajon Rondo at 21st? Or how about Russell Westbrook at 33rd behind Shane Batteir?
I think that makes enough of the point about what I mean by smell test, and that's a big part of what I don't like about it. It's not that I'm not "open to what the stats say," it's that I'm not open to what an obviously flawed metric has to say.
So with that huge disclaimer/rant established, Rose is the best point guard still remaining in terms of WS/48 and the fourth best remaining in the playoffs. Once again here he is higher than his regular season average too. His postseason score is 0.242 compared to his regular season, 0.208.
Make of it what you will, according to the advanced metrics, if you go by them, Derrick Rose is having a better postseason than he did the regular season.
2: Clutch
9 of 10There's no question that Derrick Rose has stepped up his game in the postseason versus the regular season. His scoring, rebounding, steals, blocks, +/-, defensive rating and net rating are all up. Yes, his field goal percentage is down, along with his assists and offensive rating and his turnovers are up, but all in all his postseason play is even better than his MVP regular season play.
That doesn't tell the whole story either. As he's gone into second round he's improved his stats even more. His scoring in the second round is 31 points per game. He's averaging nine assists.He's grabbing 5.1 rebounds. His effective field goal percentage is 50 percent. His usage percentage is 44.1 percent and his assist percentage is 46.6 percent.
When he's in the fourth quarter he gets even better. Per 36 minutes, his points are up from 26.3 to 33.4. His assists, from 6.6 to 7.3. His steals, form 1.8 to 3.1. His +/- in the fourth quarter is +20.3 per 36 minutes. His offensive rating in the fourth quarter is 121.86 a full 15.01 points per 100 possessions better. His defensive rating is down from 95.89 to 92.94. His net rating in the fourth is 28.92.
And as for that field goal percentage and turnovers? His field goal percentage in the fourth quarter during the postseason is 49 percent. His effective field goal percentage is 53.7 percent. His free throw percentage is 91 percent. His true shooting percentage is 63.1 percent!
Still not impressed. Look at his clutch stats, the last five minutes of the game with the score within five points. Per 36 minutes he's scoring 55.2 points, swiping 2.4 steals, still grabbing 4.8 rebounds, and shooting? His field goal percentage in the clutch is 55 percent, his true shooting percentage is 72.6 percent.
His Offensive Rating is 143.05, and his defensive rating 88.05. That's a net rating in the clutch of 55.0. Compare that with Kevin Durant's 28.81, LeBron James, 17.95, or Dwyane Wade, 17.95. While it can be misleading to look at clutch minutes with such a small sample size, this does continue a trend.
With Derrick Rose the bigger the moments get, the bigger he plays. That he's been doing so in spite of the fact that he's hampered with a sprained ankle is all the more impressive.
1: Results
10 of 10
Say what you want with Chicago's "struggles" but if you're thinking of those, then you should probably keep in mind that Chicago is the second best team in the postseason in terms of Margin of Victory, only trailing Miami.
The fact is that when the game is over they've been on top five times in seven tries. They are winning and they are now in control of their series with Atlanta. The last two games, and in three of their last four they've put their imprint on the game forcing their opponent to play at their pace.
Derrick Rose is in the difficult position of being a player who is leading a group of older, more experienced players who are willing and eager to follow him. Rose has been maturing on an almost nightly basis through the playoffs.
In last night's game it was as though he'd figured out the postseason. He's learned to be aggressive without forcing things. He let the game come to him, but then to shape it according to his will once it did. In the first seven games of the playoffs you felt like there was a 22 year old leading the team.
There is no question, Rose's postseason is better than his regular season. In fact you could make the argument he's having the best postseason of anyone in the NBA, though that's a very open conversation.
It remains to be seen who the best player of this postseason will be. Right now you could make a case for five players, Kevin Durant, Dwyane Wade, LeBron James, Dirk Nowitzki and yes, Derrick Rose. If I had to pick right now, I'd say the best postseason performer is Wade.
However, the way Rose played last night was arguably the best single game performance in the postseason so far (though Chris Paul's Game 1 would be an equally acceptable argument). If that was a postseason breakout game, then the Hawks, and whoever comes after, are going to have a heck of a task on their hands.
