NBA Playoffs 2011: Eight Reasons All Four Road Teams Win Their Game 3 Matchups
The 2011 NBA playoffs have been extremely entertaining and hardly predictable to this point. In the first round, we witnessed the eight seeded Memphis Grizzlies oust the one seeded and perennial power, San Antonio Spurs.
As the second round began, three of the four higher seeded and home teams dropped the first game against their lower seeded opponents.
Had you asked most fans to predict which home team would have dropped their second round opener, most would have said the Celtics stealing a game against the Heat.
Instead, Miami held their home court and the Thunder, Lakers and the NBA’s best home team (36-5) in the regular season, the Bulls, all lost their home court advantage.
Even more shocking was the Lakers losing a second consecutive home game in the playoffs, a rarity to be sure for Phil Jackson, Kobe Bryant and the rest of the Lakers crew.
With that said, making predictions about the four game-three’s on tap for Friday and Saturday is an area that I probably shouldn’t wander into, but here are eight reasons why we will see all four road teams win their game-three contests on Friday and Saturday respectively.
Friday’s Games
Rose Will Find the Range and Hit his Three-Point Shots.
The Atlanta Hawks have clearly made the defensive decision that they will not let NBA MVP Derrick Rose get to the rim off of his dribble-drive penetration.
The Hawks have made the conscious decision to allow Rose to take wide open mid-range and three-point jump shots, by routinely sagging off Rose and not allowing him to blow by his defender and get to the rim.
This strategy has been effective for a couple of reasons.
First, because Rose has not had the opportunity to drive to the rim, he has not reached the free-throw line as commonly has he had throughout the regular season and in the Bulls first-round playoff series against the Indiana Pacers.
Second, Rose simply has not shot the ball effectively from beyond the arc in this series, going a combined 3-15 from three-point range in the two games.
Rose and the Bulls coaching staff has identified the strategy employed by the Hawks and I believe you will see Derrick Rose become much more comfortable in game three and start knocking down his three-point shot with regularity.
Effective shooting from beyond the arc will force the Hawk defenders to close on Rose, which will then open back up the best part of the MVP’s game–his dribble penetration and ability to attack the rim.
Rose finding consistency from three-point land will help lead the Bulls to a game three victory.
The Bulls Defense Will Continue to Contain Johnson and Crawford.
It was like Dr. Jekyl and Mr. Hide for the Atlanta Hawk dynamic backcourt duo of Joe Johnson and Jamal Crawford in the first two games of this second round series.
This drastic difference in production can be directly attributed to the Chicago Bull perimeter defenders being more aggressive in their denial of the basketball and in their contesting of shots.
Joe Johnson was simply ridiculous in game one, going 12-18 from the floor, including 5-5 from three-point land, while totaling 34 points against the Bulls vaunted defense.
Unbelievably, Jamal Crawford was nearly as good, going 8-16 from the field and 2-4 from beyond the arc, pouring in 22 points off the bench for the Hawks in their game one victory.
The incredible shooting from these two stud guards was the difference in the game one victory.
Chicago recognized this fact and made the proper adjustment of double-teaming Johnson, or threatening a double-team, nearly every time he touched the rock.
This strategy limited Johnson’s touches and ultimately helped limit his production. Johnson was a much more pedestrian 7-15 from the field and just 1-3 from three-point range, scoring 16 points.
Crawford was even more ineffective facing the increased pressure from the Bulls defense, shooting a putrid 2-10 from the field and only 1-5 from three-point land, scoring just 11 points.
After combining to score to 56 points in game one, Johnson and Crawford managed only 27 in game two–a 29 point decrease.
The Bulls defense will need to continue their game-two defensive efforts if they are to win game three.
The Real Pau Gasol will Finally Stand Up.
Pau Gasol, whether fair or not, has shouldered much of the blame for the Lakers post-season woes. It hasn’t been as though Gasol has simply been terrible, it’s just that he hasn’t had a big game yet.
In the playoffs, everyone has to increase their production, from role-players to coaches to starters and especially, to All-Star players.
Gasol is one of those All-Star players and he has seen his production dip from his regular season numbers. Gasol played tentative and without confidence on Wednesday night in Los Angeles.
During the past two playoff runs, Gasol has averaged nearly 19 points and 11 rebounds per game. During this current playoff run, Gasol is averaging just 13.6 points and 7.8 rebounds per game. Again, it's not horrible production, just not what Gasol and the Lakers are accustomed to seeing.
Gasol is in a slump. It happens in every sport and players of Gasol’s capability don’t usually stay in slumps often.
Look for Gasol to have breakout game Friday night in Dallas, a 20-point and 12-reboundor better game will help the Lakers stave off a 3-0 deficit and climb back into this series against the resurgent Mavericks.
The Laker Bench Will Step Up.
The Los Angeles Lakers bench was thought to be a strength, with sixth-man of the year Lamar Odom alongside the ultra-athletically gifted Shannon Brown and solid veterans Steve Blake and Matt Barnes.
Unfortunately for Laker fans, this supposed strength has been anything but that throughout this second round series.
Lamar Odom had a fine game one, scoring 15 points and grabbing 12 rebounds, but beyond him there was little out-put. The Laker version of the killer ‘B’s–Brown, Barnes and Blake–combined for just ten points in the game one loss.
In game two, things got even worse for this group, Odom scored just six points and did haul in nine boards, but this time around, Brown, Barnes and Blake scored just six points combined. The 12 bench points for the Lakers were a glaring deficiency in the game two-loss.
Further complicating things for the two-time defending champions is Ron Artest’s game three suspension, meaning Odom will probably start. This will further deplete Phil Jackson’s bench.
Steve Blake hasn’t scored in this series, Matt Barnes has just four points and Shannon Brown, after averaging nearly nine points per game in the regular season, has just 12 in two games thus far against Dallas.
Facing and overcoming adversity has always been a characteristic of Jackson coached teams. Look for this bench to step up and contribute in big way in a game-three victory.
Saturday’s Games
Perkins and Ibaka will neutralize the Grizzlies Big Men
In a series that is even at one game apiece, identifying the difference between a win and a loss is key for both coaching staff’s.
No doubt both coaching staff’s have looked at the films and stat lines and informed their teams that winning the battle down low could be the deciding factor between a win and a loss in the pivotal game three on Saturday night in Memphis.
During a convincing game one victory in Oklahoma City, the Grizzlies post combination of Zach Randolph and Marc Gasol dominated the defensive specialists Kendrick Perkins and Serge Ibaka for the Thunder.
Randolph and Gasol combined to score 54 points on 21-33 shooting while grabbing 23 rebounds during the game one victory.
In game two, Perkins and Ibaka ratcheted up their post defense and held the Grizzlies big men to just 28 points on a dismal 5-22 shooting performance and just 19 rebounds.
The Thunder will continue this fierce post defense in game three, as they hand the Grizzlies a rare home loss.
Westbrook will Continue to make Better Decisions
Russell Westbrook is one of the most dynamic point-guards in the league. Certainly a scoring point-guard, Westbrook also averaged over eight assists per game during this season, while flexing his defensive muscles to the tune of nearly two steals per game in the regular season.
In the game one loss, Westbrook forced up 23 shots–six more than his regular season average, while turning the ball over an uncharacteristic seven times, nearly double his regular season average of four.
Westbrook did score 29 points in that loss, but his turnovers and shoot-first mentality contributed to the Thunder’s defeat.
In game two, Westbrook was much more poised, chopped his turnovers back to his regular season average of four and looked to facilitate a bit more in the Thunder’s half court offense, shooting only 20 shots.
Westbrook will continue his poised play and have produce an efficient, low-turnover, good shot selection ball game, which will help carry the Thunder to a big game-three victory.
Lebron and Wade are too much for Pierce and Allen
I will combine my last two reasons why the road teams come out victorious this weekend in to one section. It is simply Lebron James and Dwayne Wade.
James and Wade have completely outplayed Paul Pierce and Ray Allen thus far in this second round series.
In game one, Pierce and Allen both put very solid efforts and they led their Celtic team to a near comeback victory.
Although Pierce and Allen both played well, Lebron and Wade were simply better. Wade bested Allen’s 25-point effort with a 38-point gem of his own. Lebron slightly out-dueled Pierce, scoring 22 to his 19 respectively.
In game two, it got much more one-sided. Lebron and Wade simply obliterated a tired and worn out pair of aging ex-champions, much the same way Manny Pacquiao will destroy ex-champ Shane Mosely on Saturday night.
Lebron poured in 35 points, while Pierce managed just 13. Wade dropped 28 more, while Allen had just seven.
Through the first two games, Lebron is averaging 28.5 points and 6.5 rebounds per game, while Pierce is averaging 16 points and 6 rebounds.
In those same games, Wade has posted 33 points per game to Ray Allen’s 16.
Pierce and Allen make it look like the athleticism, strength and quickness of Lebron and Wade will be too much for them to overcome.
Look for more of the same during game three in Boston, as Lebron and Wade will continue to wear out Paul Pierce and Ray Allen on both ends of the floor.
