NFL Draft 2011: Final Hours Full of Surprises and Trades

Well, I figure if Mel Kiper and Todd McShay can make changes less than 12 hours before the draft, so can I. Having pored over sites like www.nfldraftscout.com, www.walterfootball.com and the NFL Network, not to mention ESPN, I have decided that I need to make a few addendums to some of my choices.

Because there is no consensus No. 1 pick, the question for the Panthers, change: Ron Rivera is calling the shots and based on Owner Richardson's interview it now seems more obvious. They might believe in Clausen, so no one really knows, but without a Round 2 pick and since they entertain calls to trade down, they take it to the wire then select: Original pick: Cam Newton, QB, Auburn. He was my original pick, but last week I had Gabbert. Rationale: Gabbert is less of a risk.

Denver - no change: Fox knows the defense needs help, and he knows he needs an up the field pass rusher or a force in the middle. He takes the more solid pick in Marcell Dareus, DT, Alabama. Original pick: Da’Quan Bowers, DE, Clemson.

Buffalo - no change: Buddy Nix, GM for Bills was on NFL Network and in trying to read between the lines, I felt his endorsement of Fitzpatrick was enough to say they would NOT take a QB with the third pick, but more so in the second round. Also, Gailey is trying to install his 3-4, so conventional wisdom has him picking a defender. But which defender will make the quickest impact? If Fairley is the next Warren Sapp, he goes here, but Gailey could also consider the top OLB in Miller. Then, there's an end rusher in Quinn or Bowers. Gailey flips a coin and it lands on Von Miller, OLB, Texas A&M.  Original pick: Nick Fairley, DT, Auburn.

Cincinnati - change: This is where things get interesting, as if they weren’t interesting from the first pick. No offense to Bengals fans, but the Bengals are one screwed up organization. Listen, trade Palmer and Ocho"who cares." Stop with this, "we're not going to trade anyone." Get what value you can and move on. Cincinnati has three options: WR, DE, DT.  I initially thought the Bengals would pull the rabbit out of the hat with: J.J. Watt, DE, Wisconsin, but I am going back to my original pick: A.J. Green, WR, Georgia.

Arizona - change:  This is an interesting dilemma for the Cardinals. Initially it looked like they wanted to trade for Kolb, but now trades and free agency are off the table, or are they back on? Whisenhunt has four QBs and none seem to be a franchise QB. I want to believe that Gabbert goes here, but deep down I think they go with: Robert Quinn, DE/OLB, UNC.  Last week I had Cam Newton, QB, Auburn. My original pick: Von Miller, OLB, Texas A&M.

Cleveland - change: With A.J. Green gone, I think the Browns will try to trade down because Gabbert is still out there and Washington just might come knocking before the Titans. However, since this is a no-trade mock I believe the Browns will select Julio Jones, WR, 'Bama.

San Francisco - no change: Harbaugh is briefly tempted by Gabbert, but takes a playmaker and perhaps the best athlete in the draft: Patrick Peterson, CB, LSU.

Tennessee - change: Most convention goes the way of QB here, and initially I had Gabbert and Newton gone, but as they hoped for Mallett in Round 2, they cannot believe Gabbert drops to them. They first select: Blaine Gabbert, QB, Missouri. Original pick: Robert Quinn, OLB, UNC.  

Dallas - no change:  Jerry Jones wants to pull the surprise of the day, but he is unable to pull a cap and trade, and with Quinn and Watt pulled out from under him, he selects Tyron Smith, OL, USC. Original pick:  Da’Quan Bowers, DE, Clemson.

Washington - change:  Again, convention would have you believe that Shanahan drafts a QB, but Gabbert and Newton are gone, so he could gamble on Locker here, but I think he waits until the second round to get a QB. Also, with Haynesworth in the air, this could be where Fairley lands. The Redskins have so many needs. Redskins select: Nick Fairley, DT, Auburn. Original pick: Blaine Gabbert, QB, Missouri.

Houston - no change:  The shouts in NY can be heard all the way from Houston, dee-fense, dee-fense, and they hear the maddening crowd. With Smith, Amukamara and Jordan still out there they select: Cameron Jordan, DE, California. Jordan is moving up draft boards. Original pick: Marcell Dareus, DL, Alabama.

Minnesota: change - I have really struggled with this one because the Vikings are in an interesting position, yet strangely an awkward picking point. For the Vikings, do they grab a young QB, one of the top OTs or even consider Smith from Missouri? Ideally, I think Minnesota would like to trade down in order to pick up the lost third-round pick (Randy Moss). Check out my other article dedicated exclusively to the Vikings 2011 draft: Vikings Complete 2011 NFL Draft: Rebuilding or Retooling? Last week I had them selecting: Anthony Castonzo, T, Boston College. Original pick:  Jake Locker, QB, Washington. Minnesota jumps before the frenzy begins. If Dalton or Ponder surprisingly go before Locker, expect Locker to go here. If Locker gets nabbed before here, Minnesota takes: Andy Dalton.

Detroit - no change:  Building a pretty decent team on paper, but will it translate into more victories? I think there are two primary positions Detroit will look at: O Line or DE. The building continues, but on the other side of the ball with: Gabe Carimi, OL, Wisconsin.  Original pick: Tyron Smith, OL, USC

St. Louis - change: The Rams are in a curious position because they have real needs in some key areas, but when you are in a division like the NFC West, scoring seems to be more of a premium than defense. With the two top wideouts gone, look for the Rams to trade down; however, the no-trade mock continues and the Rams draft: Corey Liuget, DT, Illinois. Original pick: Julio Jones, WR, Alabama.

Miami - no change: Sporano considers Ingram, but again, with no free agency we have to assume Ronnie stays. Dolphins try to trade down, if not, they select Mike Pouncey, G, Florida. Original pick: Pouncey.

Jacksonville - no change:  You have to give Jack del Rio credit he does his own thing and shirks convention. He is in a division that shouts for defense and so he selects: Aldon Smith, DE, Missouri.  Original pick: Cameron Jordan, DE, California.

New England - change: What a position to be in, and it wouldn’t surprise me to see Belichick trade down…again. However, he likes J.J. Watt, DE, Wisconsin, which was my original pick.

San Diego - This is a tricky draft because the Chargers could lose Sproles or Jackson if and when FA rolls around. If so, those areas become immediate needs. However, they will not know that until the draft is over. The players they may have hoped would drop do not: Aldon Smith, Cameron Jordan, JJ Watt. They draft a solid: Ryan Kerrigan, DE/OLB, Purdue. Original pick: Ayers.  

New York Giants - change: Last week I had Carimi here because I thought the Vikings would take Castonzo, but he falls here. A lot of draft-nicks have the Giants looking to defense here, but there is more of a pressing need on the other side. Coughlin doesn’t have to worry about moving up or down. He stays right here and drafts Anthony Castonzo, OT, Boston College. However, Mark Ingram could be awfully tempting here, or maybe even Akeem Ayers. Surprisingly the G-men are sitting at a good spot. Original pick: Anthony Castonzo, OT, Boston College.

Tampa Bay - no change: Morris looks to continue building a strong defensive front but he can’t pass on a guy who has dropped more than people would have thought. Sometimes it is all about needs, and Amukamara becomes a windfall for the Bucs: Prince Amukamara, CB, Nebraska. Original pick: Clayborn.

Kansas City - Sometimes when you are sitting at No. 21 you want to draft for your top need, and the Chiefs have three apparent needs: OL, DE, DT. My bet is they go for best athlete. Hmm, Da'Quan Bowers, DE, Clemson. Original pick:  Kerrigan

Indianapolis - This is pretty much a no brainer, protect the KING at all costs. Derek Sherrod, T, Mississippi State. Original pick: Tyron Smith, T, USC.  

Philadelphia - The need is on defense, but Reid also knows that Vick was running for his life later in the season, so he goes with a guy who can step in right away:  Danny Watkins, OL, Baylor. Original pick: Jimmy Smith, CB, Colorado.

New Orleans: change from Liuget who was drafted by the Rams. Saints' fans are singing in the streets as Phil Taylor, DT, Baylor falls in their lap. Also, this could be, Christian Ballard, DT, Iowa.

Seattle - change:  Many have Seattle drafting Locker, and that might be true if he drops here, but how much do you suppose this would affect Whitehurst's confidence, a guy they traded for? I just don’t see it. And even Carroll is perplexed with the O Line and the D Line. At No. 25 you usually take the best athlete, and I think it's: Muhammad Wilkerson, DT, Temple.  Last week's pick was: Rahim Moore, FS/CB, UCLA . Original pick: Derek Sherrod, T, Mississippi State.

Baltimore - change: This team suddenly needs defense and if there was a year for defense to dominate the draft, this one is it. Torrey Smith is right up the road, and since they lose out on Smith they opt for: Jimmy Smith, CB, Colorado. Original pick: Brooks Reed, OLB, Arizona. 

Atlanta - no change: So close, yet so far. One thing the playoffs often reveal are glaring weaknesses, and for Atlanta it was in the defensive backfield area. There are two or three corners to choose from, but after Amukamara, the talent drops off to second-round talent. With Smith and Harris gone, they go to Plan B and that is DE with Cameron Heyward, DE, Ohio State. They could be tempted to grab a WR here as well, but more of the priority lies on defense. Original pick: Gabe Carimi, T, Wisconsin.

New England - change: My guess is Belichick gets his wish and trades out of the first round. He doesn’t want to pay two first-round draft picks. However; if unable to do so because the “Godfather” doesn’t get what he wants, he opts for: Mikel Leshoure, RB, Illinois Original pick: Brandon Harris, CB, Miami.  

Chicago - change from Taylor who gets drafted by the Saints. This one is a tough call, but there are two schools of thought: do you get another weapon for Cutler, or do you protect Cutler? If Martz has his way it’s another target. Lovie was here before Martz and understands what he needs: Marvin Austin, DT, UNC Original pick: Torrey Smith, WR, Maryland. 

New York Jets - change: Ryan sticks with defense, Akeem Ayers, OLB, UCLA. Original pick: Powe, DT, Mississippi.

Pittsburgh - change: With Wilkerson gone, Steelers go O Line with Ben Ijalana, OL, Villanova. Pittsburgh could also go D Line, but have to protect Ben. Original pick: Muhammad Wilkerson.

Green Bay - Yes, they are the reigning Super Bowl champs, but they still have some concerns, especially on the offensive line. The problem is that there are no real top tier guys left. The middle of their defense struggled at times, but there’s still a need to protect Rodgers too, so Brooks Reed, OLB, Arizona.

Well, once again, that’s my final take. As you can see there were several changes, but when the dominoes start to fall a lot of changes go with it. Of course, this is without trades taking place, and I have a feeling there are going to be a lot of them. We had some players drop (Akeem Ayers and Mark Ingram in particular, but someone will most likely draft Ingram in the first, I just couldn't see him above No. 20), while others rose. Observation: All teams must be wary of who might jump up, or trade back. It’s right around the corner gang, time to get fired up!

On a final note, Charley Casserly is not a very good judge of personnel. He waffles back and forth, and this is the same guy who could not produce multiple championships in Washington after acquiring all those picks in the Ricky Williams draft fiasco.