2011 NBA Playoff Predictions: Revised Championship Odds for All 16 Teams
The 2011 NBA Playoffs are only a week old, and it's already been a roller coaster. One team has already been eliminated. In other series, teams are going toe-to-toe and what were thought to be open-and-shut cases are the exact opposite.
In a recent piece, I looked at all 16 playoff teams and each matchup they wanted to avoid. This time, it's going to be something a little bit different. All 16 playoff teams will be revisited, but instead of analyzing each matchup, their odds of winning a championship will be revealed.
Here are the championship odds for all 16 NBA playoff teams. If all goes well, these odds will explain just why Kobe has that panicked look on his face.
New York Knicks
1 of 15
I feel bad for two parties here. First, I feel bad for the New York Knicks because yesterday, they were eliminated by the Boston Celtics in a four-game sweep. Secondly, I feel bad for Spike Lee. He got all dressed up for nothing!
With the Celtics' four-game sweep occurring yesterday, the Knicks' spot in this prediction is a mere formality.
Championship Odds: Zero percent
Memphis Grizzlies
2 of 15
This is the series that has surprised me the most thus far. Honestly, who would have thought that the No. 8 Memphis Grizzlies would have a 2-1 lead over the top-seeded San Antonio Spurs at this point? I sure didn't!
Needless to say, the Grizzlies are a young and talented team who have played blue-collar basketball in these three games. Even in their Game 2 loss, the margin was only six points. Yet, in Game 3 they controlled the pace of the game and forced the experienced (yet aging) Spurs to take bad shots while stars like Zach Randolph and Mike Conley drove to the basket and kept Memphis ahead.
In watching Game 3, it started to look more and more possible that the Grizzlies might in fact defeat the Spurs in this series. It's certainly possible, and if they do, their championship odds will rise greatly.
Still, let's not forget that the Western Conference is a tough conference and that in order to make the NBA Finals, the Grizzlies would have to defeat two equally deep teams.
Championship Odds: 10 percent
Indiana Pacers
3 of 15
Currently, the Indiana Pacers are down 3-1 in their series with the red-hot Chicago Bulls. Yet, to say that the Bulls have controlled each game would be false. In fact, it has been just the opposite. In two of the team's three victories, the Bulls have come from behind to win.
Even more in the Pacers' favor now, All-Star guard and potential league MVP Derrick Rose is injured with a twisted ankle and is in a walking boot. He is expected to be ready for Game 5, but there is no guarantee to his effectiveness. If Rose is not 100 percent healthy, the Pacers could use this to their advantage.
Both teams are very young, but Indiana has been able to keep up with the fast pace set by the Bulls, who have the perfect balance of youth and veterans. I honestly thought this series would be an open-and-shut four-game sweep. Clearly, I was wrong.
The Pacers may have finished the season under .500, but they're proving in this series just why they are worthy of even making the playoffs.
Championship Odds: 15 percent
Denver Nuggets
4 of 15
Nuggets head coach George Karl looks ticked off for a reason. After a great second half, his team is one game away from being swept out of the playoffs by the red-hot Oklahoma City Thunder. This is a series where the loss of Carmelo Anthony is truly being felt.
Needless to say, the Nuggets just don't have the talent to keep up with Oklahoma City's one-two punch of Kevin Durant and Russell Westbrook. Also, let's not forget that a bunch of the players Denver received in the Anthony trade have no playoff experience. The Thunder, on the other hand, nearly eliminated the Los Angeles Lakers last season.
Without a true go-to guy on their squad, Denver's championship hopes shrink each day.
Championship Odds: Less than 10 percent
Orlando Magic
5 of 15
In my recent NBA playoff piece, I said the team that the Orlando Magic wanted to avoid was the Atlanta Hawks. This was so because Atlanta actually won the season series against Orlando, three games to one.
Coincidentally, that is the deficit by which the Magic are down against the Hawks right now.
Why are the Hawks making such short work of Orlando? Well, I think the answer is pretty obvious. They have so many players capable of putting up good numbers compared to the Magic, whose strategy always seems to be "get the ball in Dwight Howard's hands."
Ironically, that has been the problem this entire series. Orlando as a team in general has not been able to perform on the floor save for Dwight Howard. Being without sharpshooter Jason Richardson for Game 4 was a big loss as well.
Still, despite the adversity, one must remember that this is still the Orlando Magic and that with Howard on the floor, miracles can sometimes happen.
Championship Odds: 25 percent
New Orleans Hornets
6 of 15
I said at the very start of the playoffs that the New Orleans Hornets wanted to avoid the Los Angeles Lakers, who had beaten them four times during the regular season. In a true statement that shows how little the regular season means come playoff time, the Hornets took a statement win in Game 1, defeating the defending champions 109-100 at the Staples Center.
The Lakers took the next two games and some people were surely thinking Game 1 was just a fluke.
Yet, the Hornets were back full force in Game 4. Chris Paul put the team on his back and had a triple-double (27 points, 13 rebounds, 15 assists) as the Hornets won 96-83 and sent the series back to LA tied at two games apiece.
Easily the best all-around point guard in the NBA, Paul has the ability to change games on his own. Many thought the Hornets were dead in the water after losing two straight to Kobe and Company, but he proved them wrong with his Game 4 performance.
If he can carry that momentum back to LA and beyond, the Hornets' chances are looking a lot better.
Championship Odds: 30 percent
Philadelphia 76ers
7 of 15
This postseason, the Philadelphia 76ers drew the short straw and had to face the Miami Heat and the Big Three. Thus far, the Sixers are down 3-1 despite winning Game 4 in the final seconds yesterday. It was a good victory, but I still have to give them no championship hope.
Yes, the Sixers are a talented young team with good players like Andre Iguodala and Elton Brand. Still, they do not have the skills to keep up with LeBron James, Chris Bosh and Dwyane Wade all at the same time.
Barring a miracle, I'm picking this series to end in Game 5.
Championship Odds: Zero percent
Dallas Mavericks and Portland Trail Blazers
8 of 15
Dirk Nowitzki and the Mavs started their series with the Portland Trail Blazers with two straight wins at home. Once the series moved to Portland, however, the tides turned. The Blazers took two straight, including a Brandon Roy-led, come-from-behind victory in Game 4.
The facts are simple. Both of these teams are equally talented and match up well with each other. The only real advantage the higher-seeded Mavericks have is experience. Yet, the Blazers just might have the upper hand when it comes to heart.
Game 5 happens in Dallas tonight at 8:30, so it will certainly be interesting to see who wins that matchup. Will Dallas return to form on their home court, or will Portland carry the momentum from Game 4 into tonight?
Dallas Championship Odds: 35 percent
Portland Championship Odds: 25 percent
Atlanta Hawks
9 of 15
As I mentioned before, I knew that the Atlanta Hawks would have the upper hand in their first-round matchup with the Orlando Magic. They won the season series 3-1 and have taken that advantage into the postseason. Given how they have played against the best center in the NBA, the Hawks could potentially go quite far in the playoffs.
Ever since they took the Boston Celtics to the brink a couple of years ago, I have been saying how the Atlanta Hawks have the best starting lineup in the NBA. The core three of Al Horford, Josh Smith and Joe Johnson have enough potential to go out and score in double figures each game. The presence of the electrifying Jamal Crawford on the bench only helps them out.
The only reason the team hasn't done well in the later rounds of the playoffs is because they don't have much experience on that level. Yet, with the team they have now and with elimination of Orlando on the horizon, that should inject some fire into their veins.
Championship Odds: 40 percent
Oklahoma City Thunder
10 of 15
I knew that going into this year's postseason, the Oklahoma City Thunder would be the team to watch. As a No. 8 seed last year, they gave the Los Angeles Lakers a good first-round series despite losing in six games. This year, they are the No. 4 seed and look even better than before.
All in all, what makes the Thunder so dangerous is their depth. They have two superstars in forward Kevin Durant and point guard Russell Westbrook. Yet, these two are surrounded by role players like James Harden and Serge Ibaka who provide so much support that the brunt of the work doesn't fall on the two stars' backs.
Plus, the team has Kendrick Perkins as its starting center, and who can complain about that?
Just watching how the Thunder have played in Round 1, it's clear what they want. They want a Western Conference Finals matchup with Kobe Bryant and the Los Angeles Lakers. There, they just might avenge what happened last year.
Championship Odds: 45 percent
Boston Celtics
11 of 15
Honestly, what can I say about the Boston Celtics that hasn't already been said? The key players on this team have been playing together for a long time and simply put, know how to win. At some points in their first-round series with the Knicks, it looked as though New York might pull off a victory. Yet, Boston always pulled through in the final seconds.
Needless to say, Boston feels it was robbed of a championship last season. The team has one thing on its mind, and that's to get to the Finals. In the playoffs, that mentality only helps you. Thus, the Celtics have some pretty good odds at winning a championship if they can get past the Heat or Bulls.
Championship Odds: 50 percent
San Antonio Spurs
12 of 15
Sure, the San Antonio Spurs are down 2-1 in their series with the Memphis Grizzlies. In a recent piece, I said that the team looked old and could possibly be in trouble. Yet, that judgment may have been premature.
One must not forget that the Spurs are still the Spurs and that Tim Duncan, Tony Parker and Manu Ginobili, not to mention head coach Gregg Popovich, have won three championships together. They are an experienced team and in the playoffs, that only helps and makes a squad more dangerous.
Despite this deficit, don't count out the top-seeded Spurs.
Championship Odds: 60 percent
Miami Heat
13 of 15
Easily the most-hyped team in the NBA all season long, many were shocked that the Miami Heat didn't clinch the top seed in the Eastern Conference. Yet, with a squad that includes LeBron James, Chris Bosh and Dwyane Wade, the Heat are on fire in the playoffs thus far.
Now that you're probably done throwing tomatoes at me for that bad joke, I'll continue. The Heat have just outplayed the Philadelphia 76ers in Round 1, using their core three's experience to make the young squad look foolish more often than not. This team has one goal in mind: win a ring.
If they can finish off the Sixers and then two more yet-to-be-determined Eastern Conference squads, they will be a step closer to achieving just that.
Championship Odds: 45-50 percent
Chicago Bulls
14 of 15
In a season that not even the fans expected, the Chicago Bulls burst out of the starting gate and eventually secured the No. 1 seed in the Eastern Conference. Led by star point guard and MVP candidate Derrick Rose as well as newly acquired power forward Carlos Boozer, the Bulls showed so much poise and talent in head coach Tom Thibodeau's first season at the helm.
I've heard some people already compare this team to the legendary squads of the 1990s. Even a friend of mine who is a huge Bulls fan called Derrick Rose "Jordan 2.0." This team certainly has what it takes to make the NBA Finals and if they do, their odds of winning it all will be anything but a long shot.
Championship Odds: 75 percent
Los Angeles Lakers
15 of 15
Say what you want about them looking old, being past their prime, being done, etc. The fact is that once the playoffs start, the Los Angeles Lakers are always the team to beat. This team wants a third straight championship and will not let anyone stand in their way, not even the suddenly-hot New Orleans Hornets.
Much like the Celtics and Spurs, the reason why the Lakers always do so well in the postseason is simple. They have been this far together so many times that the chemistry is just there. Kobe Bryant is an electrifying shooter who just kicks himself into third gear in the postseason, and he has two great big men to work with in Pau Gasol and Andrew Bynum.
Throw in Lamar Odom and Shannon Brown off the bench as well as Phil Jackson's legendary style of coaching, and the Los Angeles Lakers are the team to beat in the 2011 NBA playoffs.
Championship Odds: 80 percent
