2011 NBA Playoffs Predictions: Forecasting Every Series Through the NBA Finals
Whoever said it was too late to make predictions about the post season a week after it started was lying.
After a week that featured some highlights, game winners and overall amazing games, we as the NBA faithful have gotten our fill of electricity and entertainment from some of the greatest athletes in the world. With the future MVP in Derrick Rose leading the Chicago Bulls to a possible semifinals appearance on one end of the country and Kobe Bryant leading the Los Angeles Lakers to the possibility of a third consecutive championship, the first week of postseason basketball has given us just about all we can handle.
Only one series has finished and it has been the Boston Celtics sweep of the New York Knicks. Both the Chicago Bulls and Miami Heat had opportunities to put their opponents away, but each team fell in dramatic fashion in Game 4. All the higher seeds in the East aside from the No. 4 Orlando Magic are winning their series.
In the Western Conference, the higher seeds are having a little more trouble than what anyone could have expected. The No. 1 San Antonio Spurs have given us the biggest surprise of all after dropping two of the first three games of their series against the No. 8 Memphis Grizzlies, a team that had never won a playoff game coming into it. The Los Angeles Lakers have dropped half of the games they have played against New Orleans, while the Oklahoma City Thunder are one game away from a semifinals berth.
The Dallas Mavericks are currently having to deal with the heroics of Brandon Roy and the Portland Trail Blazers.
With one week in the books, it's about that time to predict just what else the NBA playoffs could possibly have in store for us.
Eastern Conference First Round: No. 1 Chicago vs. No. 8 Indiana
1 of 15
Never before a team that was up 3-1 in a series been looked at with more negativity than the No. 1 Chicago Bulls. Considering that they finished the season 62-20 and four games above the closest team near them in the Eastern Conference, they deserve a reality check for the quality of play they have been putting out against the No. 8 Indiana Pacers. This is the same Pacers team that finished eight games below .500, yet could easily have a significant lead in this series.
Thanks to Indiana's short comings when it comes to executing late in games, the Bulls have been able to take advantage and eek out close wins. They have trailed in the fourth quarter of every game and won their first three games by a combined 15 points. They played significantly bad basketball for nearly the entirety of Game 4, but still managed to turn a late double-digit deficit into a near win after Carlos Boozer missed a three-pointer with a few seconds remaining.
As nice as it is to see future MVP Derrick Rose average 28 points per game and hitting clutch shots, it still has to be a concern that he is shooting 35 percent from the field overall and taking over seven three-pointers per game and only hitting 17 percent of them. Not only that, but he is averaging over four turnovers per game compared to only six assists. Considering this is against the likes of Daren Collison, this could spell trouble in the future if Rose can't get it together when he faces more quality defensive guards.
Chicago will win Game 5 and advance past the second round, but they're going to need Rose to do more than shoot 35 percent and taking seven three-pointers per game if they want to advance any further.
Prediction: Bulls in five.
Eastern Conference First Round: No. 2 Miami vs. No. 7 Philadelphia
2 of 15
The Miami Heat are up 3-1 in their series against the No. 7 Philadelphia 76ers and have still appeared to be a mortal team in at least three of those games. It was only in their definitive Game 2 victory where they won by 21 that the Heat dominated throughout the full 48 minutes. The other three games, however, have been too reminiscent of the regular season as Miami starts off extremely slow and falls behind only to play catch-up for the rest of the way.
In Game 4, the lazy and lackadaisical way of basketball the Heat have been playing finally caught up on them. They were down by 12 by the end of the first quarter and by as much as 16 in the second quarter before using a furious 20-2 run to take a one point lead into the half. By the second half, it appeared that the competitive edge that they brought in the final minutes of the second quarter was gone and it allowed Philadelphia to come back and extend the series to five games.
Miami will easily win Game 5 as not to lose any more dignity or pride, but Game 4 needs to serve as a wake-up call to this team. Teams like Boston, Chicago or any team in the Western Conference won't allow Miami to play lazy and they'll be able to keep a double-digit lead once they obtain it unlike the 76ers who have blown three double-digits leads winning only one of those games.
Prediction: Miami in five.
Eastern Conference First Round: No. 3 Boston vs. No. 6 New York
3 of 15
Wasn't this supposed to be the upset special? In a series where 12 ESPN NBA analysts predicted that the series would at least go five games, with five of those analysts claiming the series would end in seven, the Boston Celtics started off slow and then pounded the New York Knicks in their own house as they won both games at the Garden by double-digits.
Rajon Rondo made Madison Square Garden as he became only the second player in playoff history to drop a triple-double and record 20 assists (Magic Johnson was the other). Paul Pierce and Ray Allen absolutely crushed the Knicks all series long with each player averaging over 24 points per game and Allen averaging 75 percent from deep on the six three-pointers he took. Pierce was just as good averaging 56 percent from deep.
As nice as it was to see Carmelo Anthony lift the Knicks on his shoulders in Game 3 only to come up short, the team still needs a lot of work. I understand that losing Amare Stoudemire and Chauncey Billups didn't help the Knicks, but they honestly didn't stand a chance in this series even after falling by a combined five points in Games 1 and 2. New York needs to take lessons from Boston's playbook and start learning how to play like a team rather than three individuals.
A bench would help too.
Eastern Conference: No. 4 Orlando vs. No. 5 Atlanta
4 of 15
In this years post season thus far, Dwight Howard has been the closest thing to us seeing Wilt Chamberlain-like numbers ever again. In four games against the Atlanta Hawks, Howard has averaged 33 points on 67 percent shooting, 18 rebounds and two blocks per game. Yes, he is also averaging six turnovers as well, but the 33 points and 18 rebounds should cancel that out. These are some of the most absurd numbers anyone has seen in recent post season history and it could only be done by a player like Dwight.
Yet Orlando is on the brink of elimination after losing Game 4 by a score of 88-85. How can a team that has a player averaging 33 and 18 per game fare so terribly?
Shooting 24 three-pointers and making 26 percent of them certainly isn't working. The Magic lead all post season teams with the number of three-pointers they take per game, but are second to last in field goal percentage from beyond the arc. The team currently has three players that are taking at least five three-pointers per game and those players are respectively shooting 38 percent, 30 percent and 25 percent from the land of three.
As for the Hawks, they don't have anyone averaging 33 and 18, but they're also not taking 24 three-pointers per game and that's why they're winning this series. Jamal Crawford is the only player on the Hawks taking more than five three-pointers per game and he's making 59 percent of them. He's currently leading the team with 24 points per game off the bench, while Joe Johnson provides 20 points and Josh Smith chips in 16.
The Magic have to put coaching at fault for losing this series. No team that takes 24 three-pointers per game in a first round series is going to win anything near a championship and that's including a team that has a center who is averaging 33 points and 18 rebounds. If the Magic don't stop taking three-pointers, they could see Dwight looking for greener pastures in the near future.
Atlanta will make the second round and talks of Joe Johnson earning that $120 million will arise, I promise you.
Prediction: Hawks in six.
Eastern Conference Semifinals: No. 1 Chicago vs. No. 5 Atlanta
5 of 15
Time for Joe Johnson to start earning that $120 million. He can start off here with a semifinals matchup against the No. 1 Chicago Bulls who just finished a first round series where they encountered a series of scares against the Indiana Pacers. The Hawks on the other hand will be riding momentum after coming off of a quality series win against their Southeast Division rivals in the Orlando Magic.
You can give the Hawks all the momentum in the world because the Chicago Bulls are the clear favorites to win this series and advance to their first Conference Finals since the Michael Jordan era. For Atlanta, it has been a nice change of pace to see some consistency from their shooters Jamal Crawford and Joe Johnson considering that those two were the key components to defeating the Magic. Josh Smith is also raising a lot eyebrows as well with his improved jump shot.
Even with the improved play and the balance of the Hawks starting lineup and bench, they still have no definitive answer for Derrick Rose or the Bulls size in the middle. Rose has struggled against Daren Collison and while he could transition the poor shooting to the semifinals, he can still find ways to score that most players in the league can't. The Hawks aren't the strongest team in the middle either and Rose could find himself limiting his three-pointers and driving instead.
The Bulls size could also provide an issue to the Hawks as well with Boozer and Noah manning the fort down low. Since the transition of Al Horford to the power forward position, the Hawks have yet to find a reliable source at center. Jason Collins has been Atlanta's starting center as of late and hasn't provided much resistance to Dwight, so seeing him defend Noah could be a sight for sore eyes for Hawks fans.
We have seen the Bulls at their best all season long and it's going to help them make their first Conference Finals in over a decade.
Prediction: Bulls in five.
Eastern Conference Semifinals: No. 2 Miami vs. No. 3 Boston
6 of 15
Aside from seeing the Miami Heat take on the Los Angeles Lakers in the NBA Finals, this is the series that's going to have every NBA fan on the edge of their seats. Even though the Bulls have worked their way into the conversation of who exactly is the Eastern Conference's best, a matchup between the Heat and Boston Celtics is just what everyone is pining for.
The four matchups in the regular season didn't prove much as the C's dominated the first two meetings, eeked by in the third, and then concluded with the Heat winning by 23 in their house to take the second seed.
Either way, this is sure to be the most entertaining series of the playoffs. For Miami, the keys to victory have to be limiting Ray Allen from beyond the arc and keeping Rajon Rondo out of the paint. In their late season victory over the Celtics, they kept Rondo in check to seven points and five assists while keeping Allen in check from his hot spots and never allowed him to get into a fluid offensive rhythm.
For Boston, the only thing they can do is try to limit the Big Three in any way, shape, or form. With Wade possibly using his energy to keeping up with Allen on the defensive end, the offense will heavily lie on the shoulders of LeBron James, Chris Bosh and the rest of the team. In the Heat's lone win against Boston, they used a strong effort from the supporting cast to best the team that had consistently beaten them for two consecutive years.
The Celtics might have gotten plenty of rest waiting for the Heat and 76ers series to end, but it's still going to be extremely tough to beat a Heat team that plays determined and with effort. That last game against Boston was one of the few times this season anyone has witnessed Miami playing at their best with a complete effort from everyone on the team. With motivation on their side, the Heat should take this one if they play tight defense and fundamental offense.
Prediction: Miami in six.
Eastern Conference Finals: No. 1 Chicago vs. No. 2 Miami
7 of 15
When it came to beating the Eastern Conference's best, the Miami Heat failed with only one exception. For the possible Conference Finals matchup between the Heat and Chicago Bulls, the Bulls already hold a significant edge of knowing how to beat the Heat. Unfortunately for Miami, they finished 0-3 against Chicago and were never able to crack the code of beating Derrick Rose and the Bulls. Each of those three games were decided in the final seconds as the Bulls used smart basketball late to win.
The obvious advantage the Bulls hold over the Heat is having Rose on their team and Miami having no point guard being completely capable of limiting him. Mike Bibby and Eddie House certainly won't get the job done, but Mario Chalmers has always seemed to defend Rose surprisingly well. When it comes down to the final minutes though, expect LeBron to be defending Rose and James Jones to be implemented into the lineup to defend Luol Deng.
For Miami to win this series, they're going to need to out hustle and pour in a complete 48 minute effort for as long as this series goes on. The Bulls defense has been notoriously stingy this year and could force a team like the Heat into taking frustration shots from deep rather than around the rim. Not only do they have defense on their side, but they have length on their side as well with Joakim Noah, Carlos Boozer and Deng heading up the front court in the starting lineup and Omer Asik and Kurt Thomas coming off the bench.
However, if Miami is motivated and determined it would be hard to believe that the Bulls would deter a motivated LeBron James or Dwyane Wade from advancing into the NBA Finals. As good as Keith Bogans and Luol Deng have played defense this season, it's still going to be an accomplishment if they can somehow limit Wade and James inside. The high chances being that they won't since Wade and James thrive for moments like that.
Prediction: Miami in six.
Western Conference First Round: No. 1 San Antonio vs. No. 8 Memphis
8 of 15
I get that Manu Ginobili has been injured for the entirety of this series, but there is just no excuse for the San Antonio Spurs to be losing to the Memphis Grizzlies 2-1. For a core as seasoned as Ginobili, Tim Duncan and Tony Parker are, to be losing to a squad of players that haven't even been to a postseason before might be one of the biggest disappointments of the playoffs thus far.
That even includes the New York Knicks who were expected to at least take two games against the Celtics.
When it comes down to it though, the Grizzlies have completely out-played the Spurs thus far. This series wasn't your average number one-number eight series since the Grizz actually took two out of the four regular season meetings against the Spurs and also considering that Memphis easily has one of the top front courts in the league even without Rudy Gay. The reason behind Memphis's success this series has solely been on the play of Zach Randolph and Marc Gasol on the boards.
Randolph is averaging 20 points and eight rebounds alongside Gasol who has put up a quality 18 points and 12 rebounds per game to support Memphis in what is expected to be a long and endearing fight to the finish. You have to admire the Grizzlies effort since losing Gay a few weeks prior to the start of the post season and in the middle of a race to obtain the eighth seed, they could have easily laid down and waited for their superstar to return for next season, but they have stayed the course and have played some of the basketball they have played all season..
As well as the Grizzlies have played, it'll be hard to believe that this is the best shot we have seen from the Spurs. Duncan is the only player on the team hitting more than half of his shots with Parker being the disappointment hitting only 34 percent from the field due to the size that the Grizzlies have in the middle. Considering that this could be a last hurrah for the Spurs in the postseason, we should expect them to come back and take the series in the waning moments.
Prediction: Spurs in seven.
Western Conference First Round: No. 2 Los Angeles Lakers vs. No. 7 New Orleans
9 of 15
It seems like being a higher seed in the Western Conference has been more of a curse than a gift this year. So far, the number one, two and three seeds are a combined 5-6 against the sixth, seventh and eighth seeds. The No. 4 Oklahoma City Thunder are the only higher seed in the West to be leading their series.
The Los Angeles Lakers were expected to skate by the New Orleans Hornets, especially with the history they have had in the past. Kobe Bryant and the Lakers have always been able to have their way with Chris Paul and the New Orleans Hornets and it seemed that it would only come easier now that the Hornets were without their starting power forward and All-Star, David West. Carl Landry was a good replacement, but he doesn't fill the void that West leaves behind.
The main theory behind the Lakers not having too much success in the first round this year, or any year lately, has been because they're bored and are already looking forward to the NBA Finals. They've been in this position before and could care less about their first or second opponents. The effort that they have given out in any of these four games that they have played against New Orleans isn't nearly the same type of effort that we'd expect to see from the Lakers at a higher level.
Still, the Hornets are upset minded and Chris Paul is playing like the Chris Paul of old. He just finished Game 4 with an impressive triple-double with 27 points, 15 assists and 13 rebounds that was also able to lead his Hornets to an important Game 4 victory. Paul has averaged 26 points on 57 percent shooting, 12 assists and seven rebounds in his first healthy return to the post season in a few years.
The Lakers aren't the type of team to lose in the first round and they won't. Kobe just won't allow it to happen.
Prediction: Lakers in six.
Western Conference First Round: No. 3 Dallas vs. No. 6 Portland
10 of 15
If Brandon Roy is doing this, I'd be scared if I were the Dallas Mavericks because they now have a whole new threat they have to worry about.
After breaking down and nearly being reduced to tears on the bench in Game 2 after playing only seven minutes and not scoring a single point, Roy decided that he would have to take advantage of the minutes he would receive. The Blazers called upon him in what was looking to be a joke of a game as the Mavericks took a 23 point lead in the third quarter during a Game 4 that could have given Dallas a commanding 3-1 lead heading back to Dallas.
Roy came, saw and then conquered to the tune of 24 points with 18 coming in the fourth quarter. Not only did Brandon hit a four-point play to tie the game at 82 a piece with a little over a minute remaining, he would bank in a 15 footer to give Portland the eventual deciding basket with 39 seconds left. It was the Brandon Roy that Portland had come to know and love before suffering some life changing knee injuries that forced him to the bench over the past two seasons.
Whether this Roy will be consistent is up to him to decide, but the Blazers will now give him the minutes to decide for himself after proving that he is still well and capable of leading a team. If Portland has the Roy of old back, they can not only escape out of the first round, but they can begin to establish them as legitimate title threats if the likes of Roy, LaMarcus Aldridge and Gerald Wallace can lead this team.
Knowing the Dallas Mavericks playoff history, the Blazers could escape out of this series and into the semifinals. After all, the last time the Mavericks won the first two games of a post series came in 2006 in the NBA Finals against the Miami Heat where they would drop the next four.
Prediction: Trail Blazers in seven.
Western Conference First Round: No. 4 Oklahoma City vs. No. 5 Denver
11 of 15
Much like the Boston Celtics and Oklahoma City Thunder series, this was a matchup that was expected to go the distance. Even though the series isn't over and crazier things have happened, this matchup between the Oklahoma City Thunder and Denver Nuggets appears just about over if you judged future games on the first three games of the series.
The Nuggets have at least made games out of two of the three games played, but they're not about to pull any miraculous upsets.
Why not? Because Kevin Durant and Russell Westbrook won't allow it to happen. The two players are averaging a combined 55 points, 11 rebounds and 10 assists per game and have been in full throttle since the start of the series. They are getting healthy contributions from Serge Ibaka, James Harden and a plethora of role players, but this series has been the Durant and Westbrook show from the start and they are now proving themselves worthy as title contenders.
As for the Nuggets, life has become a lot more difficult when you lack that go to scorer that you relied on for seven years. For all the quality role players that the Nuggets have been thriving on, they don't have that one player that each NBA team could rely on when they needs points in close games in the final seconds. Despite having six players currently averaging double-figures in scoring, the Nuggets' lack of finding the go-to guy has been their downfall this series.
Compare having no go-to guy to Kevin Durant. Advantage Thunder.
Prediction: Thunder in six.
Western Conference Semifinals: No. 1 San Antonio vs. No. 4 Oklahoma City
12 of 15
It's the ultimate battle of experience against youth. A war that will pit some of the games most seasoned veterans to wage conflict with some of the most athletic players in the game today. To put it in English, it's a semifinals matchup that pits the No. 1 San Antonio Spurs against the No. 4 Oklahoma City Thunder. Despite the Spurs being a one seed, this series could be a lot more one-sided than it appears.
Yes, the Spurs have age and playoff experience on their side, but they lack the youth and athleticism that the Thunder bring to every game. With each player being years younger than the Spurs core, they hold a significant advantage as far as just how deep they can go into a postseason series before wear and tear begins to play a role. With the Grizzlies giving the Spurs all they can handle and the Thunder handling the Nuggets with ease, Oklahoma City could possibly take advantage of a weary San Antonio team.
If the Spurs want to limit the Thunder, they have to use their qualities to their advantage. They're going to need to find ways on defense to frustrate Kevin Durant, Russell Westbrook and Serge Ibaka and take them out of their element. They'll need to be physical with Durant to keep him on his toes when he drives and turn Westbrook into a jump shooter. Russell has been a quality jump shooter all year, but he has been known to be a little too shot happy if he makes a few consecutively and it has hurt his game and the Thunder.
For the Thunder to beat the Spurs, they just need to use their athleticism and pure talent to beat the ageless veterans of San Antonio. If Ginobili continues to be hampered by the injury that has limited him against Memphis, Oklahoma City has a clear shot at defeating the Spurs and advancing to their first Conference Finals in their short franchise history.
Prediction: Thunder in six.
Western Conference Semifinals: No. 2 Los Angeles Lakers vs. No. 6 Portland
13 of 15
For this matchup to go anywhere beyond five games, the Portland Trail Blazers are going to need Brandon Roy to be in rare form. Otherwise, they'll have to deal with the wrath of a motivated and hungry Kobe Bryant and his Los Angeles Lakers.
Seeing Roy perform up to the level that he was playing at two years ago prior to those debilitating knee injuries was a huge bright spot for the Blazers organization to see from their former superstar, but they have been duped into believing that Roy has been back before. Brandon also had 21 points in a game against Dallas during the regular season where he hit a key shot late to lead his Blazers to victory.
So to say that the Brandon Roy that we saw in Game 4 will be the same Brandon Roy we see for the rest of the post season is a stretch.
Chances are much higher that we'll see the same Kobe Bryant that we've seen before through the rest of the postseason. For as long as he is still finishing plays like this despite now being in his 15th season and playing with an injured finger for the past two years, he is going to be able to lead the Lakers past the semifinals before his career begins hitting the other side of the spectrum. With a title to defend, Bryant and the Lakers being stopped in the second round of the postseason seems highly unlikely.
Portland, however, has had the Lakers' number for the past few seasons. They only finished 1-3 against the Lakeshow this year, but can still pose as a threat with Gerald Wallace on the team now and if Roy can produce. Blazers stand out LaMarcus Aldridge is a player worth noting as well considering that he has emerged as one of the top power forwards in the league and can give Pau Gasol fits if he can produce outside of Gasol's defensive comfort zone.
However, Bryant being stopped in the second round is too far fetched to believe even for someone that witnessed Paul Millsap's onslaught against the Miami Heat earlier this year.
Prediction: Lakers in seven.
Western Conference Finals: No. 2 Los Angeles Lakers vs. No. 4 Oklahoma City
14 of 15
This year's Western Conference Finals is actually a lot easier to predict than what I expected. Let's face facts: the San Antonio Spurs' age and health is beginning to catch up to them, the Dallas Mavericks haven't always had postseason success, Brandon Roy isn't going to be miraculous from here on out and the rest of the field just isn't capable of it, so it became easy to narrow the field down to the Los Angeles Lakers and the Oklahoma City Thunder.
The Thunder are a team built on electricity, athleticism and talent. Kevin Durant and Russell Westbrook have been giving the people of Oklahoma good reason to start watching basketball after dropping jaws and raising eyebrows with some of the stunts and acrobatics they have pulled off in such a short time in the league. Not only that, but they can actually play the game pretty good too. Durant has evolved into one of the best scorers in the league, while Westbrook is quietly becoming a top-five caliber point guard.
For the Lakers however, they still essentially have the same team that has won them the past two NBA Championships. Their core has remained in tact with Kobe Bryant and Pau Gasol leading the way with each player just as motivated as before after a shaky regular season and a questionable start to the postseason after a Game 1 loss to New Orleans. Despite the struggles, a place like the Conference Finals is a place that Bryant is a familiar with.
Durant and Westbrook? Not so much.
However, they do have Kendrick Perkins on their side who has been to two of the past three NBA Finals and has played the Los Angeles Lakers in both of those Finals. If anyone is an answer to Andrew Bynum in the Western Conference, it would be Perkins who has plenty of experience playing against the seven footer. The Thunder are one of the few teams of the league to have the tools to take down the Lakers, but the question is can they use them to take them out?
With Kobe Bryant that near his destination, it doesn't seem likely. We'll call this series a learning experience for the Thunder who will most likely be here next year.
Prediction:
Los Angeles in six.
NBA Finals: No. 2 Miami vs. No. 2 Los Angeles Lakers
15 of 15
You asked for it and you got it.
As far as educated guesses and predictions go, the Miami Heat taking on the Los Angeles Lakers is appearing to be the matchup most likely to happen for this years NBA Finals. The combination of Dwyane Wade and LeBron James are too dangerous and too volatile of a tandem to be denied of making it this far to a title game.
We have seen games where the Heat give a full effort for 48 minutes (110-80 win over San Antonio, 100-77 win over Boston, both games against Los Angeles) and it showed just how good they can play when they are focused. However, their inability to close out a game when they hold a comfortable lead has been their downfall all year long as they take a laid-back approach to closing out games that they hold significant leads in.
The Lakers have had their struggles this year, but they ended the season on a high note as they held one of the best records after the All-Star break. Led by Kobe Bryant and Pau Gasol, the Lakers are a relentless team in the postseason. They have made it to the past three title games and have won two of them with the most recent being last season when they bested the Boston Celtics in seven games.
If they have struggled against any team this year, it has been the Heat who they lost to twice this year.
A motivated Miami team has proved itself to be the best team in the league since they have proved that they are capable of beating a team like the San Antonio Spurs by 30 and the Boston Celtics by 23. LeBron James has always had quality games against the Lakers, as well as Chris Bosh this season, while Dwyane Wade has used defensive pressure to shut off Kobe from being the prolific scorer that he is.
With both teams extremely motivated and hungry for a title, it's going to come down to whoever wants it more. Since LeBron James gave up the love of millions to join a team in an unfamiliar environment, you have to believe that there is nothing that will deter him from getting his first ring while also avoiding the criticism of being unable to win the title for a very long summer.
Prediction:
Heat in seven
