2011 NBA Playoff Predictions: Projecting Western Conference First Round Winners
Who will rise as the best in the West?
After an unpredictable year in the Western Conference, many are expecting a very competitive playoff to ensue. The defending champion Los Angeles Lakers enter the playoffs as losers of five of their last seven regular season games and with questions surrounding the health of Andrew Bynum.
The San Antonio Spurs have been the most dominant team of the regular season, but might be without Manu Ginobili for Game 1 of their series against the Memphis Grizzlies.
With the acquisition of Kendrick Perkins, the Oklahoma City Thunder might be better equipped to challenge for the NBA crown than many think.
LaMarcus Aldridge has gone from All-Star snub to the potential ring leader of a huge playoff upset...but we'll see what Dirk Nowitzki has to say about that.
And who knows how Danilo Gallinari and the Denver Nuggets will fare in their first playoff series without Carmelo Anthony?
While it is probably too early and too difficult to figure out who will represent the Western Conference in the 2011 NBA Finals, we most certainly have some predictions as to who will be the Final Four in the conference.
San Antonio Spurs vs. Memphis Grizzlies
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The Spurs have inexplicably looked like a juggernaut all season long. Sure, they hit a bump in the road toward the end of the season, and Chicago does own the top record in the league (and hence, homecourt advantage throughout the playoffs), but Tim Duncan is fresh after only averaging a career-low 28 mpg.
Manu Ginobili is expected to miss Game 1, and if he isn't healthy, the Spurs are in danger of falling short of fulfilling the expectations that a 60-win season breeds, but even with a slightly disabled Ginobili for six games, the Spurs have enough to beat the Grizzlies.
Marc Gasol has the potential to be a devastating force for the Grizzlies, but he would certainly have to rediscover his offensive touch and perhaps borrow some of his older brother's fancy footwork in order to score in the paint.
Prediction: Spurs in 6
How the Grizzlies can win: Zach Randolph has to absolutely dominate Tim Duncan, and Toney Allen would have to continue his recently excellent play. Mike Conley will likely be neutralized by Tony Parker, so Marc Gasol would also need to come up huge for the Grizzlies.
Additionally, the Grizzlies perimeter defenders will have to do a good job of defending 3-point bombs from George Hill, Gary Neal and Matt Bonner. And if O.J. Mayo can provide a consistent scoring punch off the bench, the Grizzlies might have a shot... but don't count on it.
Oklahoma City Thunder vs. Denver Nuggets
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Since trading Carmelo Anthony to the New York Knicks on President's Day, the Denver Nuggets have been one of the league's hottest teams. They ended the season 9-3, and are hoping to continue their good play.
In the playoffs, however, the game is likely to slow down, and not having a consistent half court offensive threat will hurt the Nuggets.
With the Thunder's intimidating front line of Kendrick Perkins and Serge Ibaka, many expect Oklahoma City to be one of the surprise teams of the 2011 NBA Playoffs.
I'm one of those people, and I can't see them losing to a very respectable Nuggets team. It'll be hard-fought, but I expect the team with the two best players, and homecourt advantage, to prevail.
Prediction: Thunder in 7
How the Nuggets can win: Quite simply, Danilo Gallinari would have to become Dirk Nowitzki. If he could provide the Nuggets with a consistent 20 ppg, 10 rpg, and 3 point shooting, it could make all the difference.
You can absolutely count on J.R. Smith and Ty Lawson to have at least one big game each, but Kenyon Martin, who is playing for a new contract, would have to have his way with Serge Ibaka, as well. It's a tall order for the Nuggets.
Dallas Mavericks vs. Portland Trailblazers
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Although many are expecting the Trailblazers to upset the Mavericks in the first round, I'm not one of them.
The Mavericks have been labeled as a "soft" team for a very long time, but Tyson Chandler has provided them with a lot of muscle and some desperately needed toughness.
While LaMarcus Aldridge should probably win the Most Improved Player Award, he has yet to perform in the playoffs, and I can't pick him and his team over the battle-tested and clutch Dirk Nowitzki.
The emergence of J.J. Barea and Rodrigue Beaubois give the Mavericks good scoring and playmaking on the perimeter, and you simply cannot discount the ability of Jason Terry and Jason Kidd to hit big shots.
Although the acquisition of Gerald Wallace gives an already talented Trailblazer team more depth, the Mavericks will likely prevail in a Game 7 at home in Big D.
Prediction: Mavericks in 7
How the Blazers can win: It will ultimately fall on Brandon Roy and Gerald Wallace. Both need to play well and provide the Blazers with sufficient scoring in order to shock the Mavericks.
Andre Miller is likely to match Jason Kidd's production, so the Wallace vs. Marion and Roy vs. Beaubois matchups would need to be dominated by the Trail Blazers for them to prevail.
Wesley Matthews and Nicolas Batum have played well this season and could swing the series if either gets hot.
Los Angeles Lakers vs. New Orleans Hornets
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Kobe Bryant has been in the news over the past few days because of his well-documented use of a gay slur toward official Bennie Adams.
The stakes were high in the game where Kobe blew up, because they needed to win it to assure themselves the second seed and a matchup with the New Orleans Hornets.
The Lakers have historically had trouble with the Trailblazers, so they'll happily dominate the Hornets.
Trevor Ariza will have the opportunity to try to stop Kobe Bryant, but that's about as likely to happen as Carl Landry stopping Pau Gasol. They might succeed for a game or two, but not over the long haul.
Prediction: Lakers in 5
How the Hornets can win: It's really hard to see this happening. Chris Paul would have to play the most brilliant basketball of his career in this series, and that's saying a lot. I'm thinking that he'll need to average 25/5/12 and 3 steals per game.
Emeka Okafor and Carl Landry need to find a way to neutralize the Lakers' biggest strength; their size.
Bigger and stronger teams have failed previously, so there's no reason to expect them to shock the world and send the defending champs home early.
