2011 NBA Playoff Predictions: Boston Celtics vs NY Knicks, Who Wins and Why
The New York Knicks and Boston Celtics will kick off their best-of-seven first-round series this Sunday night.
It is the first time since 1990 that these two teams will meet in the playoffs and both sides seem poised to rekindle their old rivalry.
As the third seed, the Celtics have home-court advantage heading into this series against the sixth-seeded Knicks. While home-court advantage is important in the playoffs, this series is far from decided.
There are many different aspects of the two teams that need to be considered before we can make an educated prediction.
Which team wins the offensive battle?
Which team has the most depth on their roster?
Who wins the battle between Carmelo Anthony and Paul Pierce?
And the answers to these questions cannot be found in the previous meetings between these teams.
The playoffs are a completely different type of game. We must look deeper into player and team strengths and flaws to find the answers.
Once we can answer these questions, among others, a clear winner will be determined.
With that in mind, let us take a look at how the Knicks and Celtics stack up against each other.
New York Knicks' Offense vs Boston Celtics' Defense
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The Knicks' offense is second in the league with an average of nearly 107 points per game.
Coach Mike D'Antoni's seven seconds or less offensive system is designed to be player friendly as well as to torch opposing defenses.
Although D'Antoni has modified this system to accommodate Chauncey Billups and Carmelo Anthony, the Knicks are still one of the, if not the, most explosive offenses in the league.
New York has two players in Anthony and Amar'e Stoudemire who are in the top six of the league in points per game. Add Billups' and Toney Douglas' instant offensive games to the mix, and you have an offense that can put up points in bunches.
The Knicks thrive off of playing in transition and keeping the ball moving constantly, which makes them extremely threatening and difficult to defend, even for the Celtics.
However, the good news for the Celtics is that they allow the least amount of points in the NBA at just over 91 per game. Kevin Garnett and company's specialty is locking down the middle and refusing to allow any easy points in the paint.
Boston is also skilled at slowing down opposing offenses and forcing them to play a half-court game. This is bad news for the Knicks, who, as previously mentioned, thrive in transition.
If the Celtics force the Knicks to play a half-court game, New York's energy and execution on offense will be non-existent. Their ball movement will slow down and their three-point opportunities will be far fewer than normal.
All of this being said, the Knicks offense will prove to be too explosive for Boston to shut down completely. New York will continue to put triple digits up on the board each night and while Boston's defense may prove to be more effective than others against the Knicks, it will not be able to slow it down enough.
Edge: New York Knicks' Offense
Boston Celtics' Offense vs New York Knicks' Defense
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The Celtics offense is 23rd in the league at just over 96 points per game.
Boston's number may not seem so impressive at first glance, but their offense is legitimate. They have five players, nearly six, who average double figure points per game.
Additionally, with Rajon Rondo directing the offense, Boston is a very scary team on that side of the ball. Rondo is second in the league at 11.2 assists per game, but on any given night he can dish out 20 or more.
So while the Celtics are not among the top teams of the NBA in points per game, they do have the potential, and even tendency, to explode when they need to. And furthermore, Boston's offense should be able to break down the weak defense of New York.
Although the Knicks have improved their defense as of late, they allow the third-most points per game in the league.
New York does have the potential to play great defense, but they are in the early stages of improvement, which means strong defensive outings are possible against teams like the Indiana Pacers, but will be much more scarce against a team like Boston.
The silver lining for the Knicks' defense is that they tend to defend better against the NBA's elite. However, it must be noted that New York was 0-4 against Boston this season. Many will argue that the last game was not a true representation of anything, but even so, 0-3 is nothing to brag about.
New York gives up easy baskets in the paint far too often, and unless they play better interior defense, Glen "Big Baby" Davis and Kevin Garnett will torch them.
Additionally, Boston has two premiere sharp shooters in Ray Allen and Paul Pierce.
Boston may not have the strongest offense in the league, but they can explode when they need to, and this, coupled with the fact that the Knicks have one of the worst defenses in the league, gives them the advantage.
Edge: Boston Celtics' Offense
New York Knicks' Chauncey Billups vs Boston Celtics' Rajon Rondo
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Rajon Rondo is having another strong season.
He is averaging a double-double at 10.6 points and 11.2 assists per game.
Rondo may have the greatest court vision in the NBA. He is able to find an open man no matter where he is on the court.
Additionally, he is able to cut through the paint with ease, and although not a major scoring threat, once he gets inside, he can effortlessly get to the basket for an easy two.
Rondo is also an above-average defender. He averages over two steals a game and his quickness makes him near impossible to pass. His ability to keep his man in front of him and make sharp lateral movements enables him to defend the pick-and-roll effectively.
Some of the knocks on Rondo's game are his poor free-throw and three-point shooting abilities. However, his ability to do everything else well overshadows any of these flaws.
Chauncey Billups has also had a strong season though.
Since joining the Knicks he is averaging nearly 17 points and over five assists per game. Unlike Rondo, he is a very strong three-point and free-throw shooter, and often puts up points in bunches.
Rondo is definitely a better defender, but Billups is not terrible. He averages one steal per game and is also skilled at defending the pick-and-roll.
Ultimately though, Rondo has the advantage in this matchup. While Billups is quick on the offensive end, his agility on defense has slipped. Making sharp, lateral movements is no longer his strength, rather his actual strength is his greatest defensive asset.
This will prove to be near useless when guarding Rondo though, because like Billups on the offensive end, he is extremely elusive.
Additionally, Rondo has far better court vision than Billups does when it comes to finding the open man.
Age also comes into play here too. Billups is 34 and more of a health risk than the 24-year-old Rondo.
Edge: Boston Celtics' Rajon Rondo
Boston Celtics' Kevin Garnett vs New York Knicks' Amar'e Stoudemire
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Amar'e Stoudemire is having a career year.
He is sixth in the league with 25.3 points per game and adds 8.2 rebounds to his nightly point total. Stoudemire has improved his defense a great deal this season and is seventh in the league with nearly two blocks per game.
The greatest thing about Stoudemire is his combination of strength and defense. At 6'10", he not only adds height and strength to the court, but he is much quicker than probably anyone in the game at power forward or center positions.
Additionally, while Stoudemire is effective in the low post, he has also added the mid-range jumper to his arsenal. He can even hit the three if New York truly needs him too.
At 28, Stoudemire is in the prime of his career, and the energy he brings to the floor cannot be matched. Opposing defenses have had trouble containing him all year long and it should be no different in the playoffs.
Kevin Garnett is no pushover though. He is averaging nearly 15 points and nine rebounds per game. He also is averaging a little over one steal per game, which is very impressive for a player of his size.
At 6'11", Garnett is a significant present in the low post, and like Stoudemire, he too can hit the mid-range jumper. He averages more than one block less a game than Stoudemire, but he is a smarter defender overall.
The biggest concern for Garnett while going up against Stoudemire is his health. He is on the cusp of turning 35 and being forced to defend a quick guy like Stoudemire puts him at risk. Stoudemire is much faster than the rest of the players Garnett defends at his position.
While Garnett is a great player, his best days are behind him. He still has the ability to put up big numbers, but not on the same nightly basis that Stoudemire can.
Edge: New York Knicks' Amar'e Stoudemire
New York Knicks' Carmelo Anthony vs Boston Celtics' Paul Pierce
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Paul Pierce has had another strong season for the Boston Celtics.
During the regular season, Pierce averaged 18.9 points a game to lead the Celtics. He also added over five rebounds and just over three assists.
Pierce is one of the best creators in the NBA. He can spot up and take the jump shot, drive the ball to the basket and even post up to hit the fade away.
In addition, Pierce is lethal from downtown. He shot over 34 percent from beyond the arc this season.
Many believe that Pierce has lost a step or two. At 33, he is definitely on the downside of his career, but he is still effective, and as clutch as they come.
New York knows all too well how detrimental Pierce can be during crunch time. He hit one game-winner and a crucial go-ahead shot on another occasion to help seal Boston victories over the Knicks.
Pierce's counterpart in this series is someone else who is no stranger to coming through in the clutch.
Carmelo Anthony is a proven performer and has hit clutch shots on numerous occasions in his short tenure with the Knicks.
Anthony averaged 25.6 points and 7.3 rebounds per game during the regular season and since joining the Knicks, he has improved his three-point shooting ability tremendously. At over 42 percent from behind the line, he has become a legitimate three-point threat.
The biggest knock on Anthony is his defense. He has improved his defense as of late, but he is still a subpar defender.
Anthony's defensive issues have nothing to do with ability. He has proven that he is capable of playing great defense. His problem is putting in a consistent effort on that side of the ball.
While this may sound like good news for Pierce, Anthony has stepped up this season when guarding elite players, such as LeBron James.
Pierce is a better defender then Anthony, but not by much.
This individual matchup comes down to offensive ability.
And Anthony has Pierce in that department.
Edge: New York Knicks' Carmelo Anthony
Boston Celtics' Ray Allen vs New York Knicks' Landry Fields
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Landry Fields may have slowed down his production a bit as of late, but he has still been a great asset to this New York Knicks team.
Fields is averaging 9.7 points and 6.4 heading into the postseason, and he is shooting a deadly 39.4 percent from beyond the arc.
Drafted in the second round, no one expected Fields to really make an impact for the Knicks, but he has proved to be a pleasant surprise.
The energy he radiates when on the court is invaluable and he is one of the better defenders at the shooting guard position.
Ray Allen is also having a great season.
Allen is averaging 16.5 points and 3.4 rebounds per game. As is the case with Pierce, Allen is on the downside of his career, yet he is still performing at a high level.
At over 44 percent, Allen is one of the best three-point shooters in the game. And if he gets into a rhythm from downtown, the Knicks are in serious trouble.
Furthermore, Allen has one of the purest shots the game has ever seen. His ability to catch and shoot the ball cannot be duplicated, and while he may sometimes be overshadowed by Pierce, he is more than capable of hitting the pressure shot.
Allen is not a premiere defender, but in this matchup he doesn't have to be. The ball runs through Carmelo Anthony and Amar'e Stoudemire on offense for New York, so Fields does not get many touches.
The case is different for Allen though. Rajon Rondo and company put the ball in his hands often, and while Fields is a great defender, his defensive prowess will not be enough to contain Allen.
Allen has playoff experience and Fields is new to the postseason. The rookie Fields may not completely crack under the pressure, but experience means a lot in the playoffs.
And in addition, Allen's raw scoring ability trumps that of Fields, who is still young and has a lot to learn.
Edge: Boston Celtics' Ray Allen
New York Knicks' Centers vs Boston Celtics' Centers
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Boston fans were outraged when the Celtics traded away Kendrick Perkins to the Oklahoma City Thunder.
And to be honest, if Perkins were still with the Celtics, they would have the clear edge at center.
But as of right now, the center position is dicey for both teams.
Boston now has Jermaine O'Neal, Nenad Krstic and Shaquille O'Neal, when he is healthy, to rotate at the five. Neither one of them screams game-changer, but they can be effective.
Krstic is averaging just over eight points heading into the playoffs. Jermaine O'Neal is averaging just over five and Shaquille O'Neal is averaging just over nine.
Boston has been struggling to find their identity at the position ever since Perkins' departure and it is a clear area of weakness right now.
However, it is an even bigger weakness for the Knicks.
Assuming New York does not have Stoudemire start at center, their options consist of Ronny Turiaf, Jared Jeffries and Shelden Williams.
The Knicks' corps of centers do not scream offensive game-changers either. Turiaf averaged 4.2 points per game on the season, Williams 4.5 and Jeffries 1.8.
Additionally, like the centers for Boston, rebounding is not a strength for the Knicks' centers. This is to be expected though, since they are all undersized in either height or strength for the position.
While neither team's centers will be the key to their organization's victory, Boston has the better rotation at the position.
Krstic and the two O'Neals are taller and better built to play the position then any of the Knicks' centers.
Jeffries is a great defender, but even he will have a tough time stopping either of the O'Neals, and plus he is virtually non-existent on the offensive end.
Edge: Boston Celtics' Centers.
Boston Celtics' Bench vs New York Knicks' Bench
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The Knicks gave up a ton of assets in the trade for Carmelo Anthony, but their bench is deeper than people realize.
Toney Douglas is the shining star of the Knicks bench. He has really blossomed since the Anthony trade.
Douglas comes into the postseason averaging 10.6 points, three assists and three rebounds per game. He also shoots over 37 percent from three-point range and can put up points in bunches. Those are solid attributes for a backup point guard.
New York also has Shawne Williams coming off the bench. He has been quite a surprise for the Knicks this season. He wasn't even supposed to be in the rotation, but he played himself into it and even starts on occasion.
Williams averaged 7.1 points and 3.7 rebounds per game during the regular season, and shot a whopping 40 percent from downtown. He is also an above-average defender and has the potential to put points up in bunches.
Depending on who starts, the Knicks' bench also has Jared Jeffries or Ronny Turiaf to add to its credentials. Both players are not threats offensively, but are good defenders.
The Celtics are an extremely deep team.
Glen "Big Baby" Davis has been absolutely solid coming of the bench this season. He is averaging 11.7 points and 5.4 rebounds per game coming into the postseason.
Davis gives the Celtics a low-post presence when Kevin Garnett is on the bench, and he also can hit the mid-range jumper.
Carlos Arroyo was a great pick up for Boston and is an adequate backup for Rajon Rondo. He is averaging 4.8 points and two assists per game. His stats do not show it, but he is an effective player.
Arroyo gives the Celtics someone who can run the offense effectively when Rondo needs a breather. And Boston is thrilled they had the chance to sign him.
Jeff Green is the backup for Paul Pierce and he has been simply astounding at 13.3 points per game. He also adds 4.8 points per game to his point totals.
Green is definitely the most effective player coming off the Boston bench. A case can be made for Davis, but Green provides a little bit more of an offensive punch.
Delonte West also comes of the bench for Boston and has been solid. He is averaging 5.6 points per game and shoots over 36 percent from beyond the arc.
And depending on who starts at center, the Celtics have Shaquille O'Neal and Nenad Krstic coming off the bench behind Jermaine O'Neal.
Boston's team may be older, but they have a lot more depth. And considering how well the starters of these two teams matchup, it very well could come down to which team's bench performs better.
This is bad news for New York.
Edge: Boston Celtics' Bench.
New York Knicks' Coach Mike D'Antoni vs Boston Celtics' Coach Doc Rivers
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Both Doc Rivers and Mike D'Antoni are well-respected coaches.
D'Antoni's seven seconds or less offensive system truly torches opposing defenses. His teams score a lot of points per game and are always well-conditioned.
The knocks surrounding D'Antoni are that his teams are never defensively oriented and that you cannot win a championship in his system.
While the Knicks have struggled defensively all season, people do not give D'Antoni enough credit for how defensive-minded he actually is. People may not see it, but D'Antoni does stress defense to his players. He could not have become an NBA head coach without knowing how to coach defense.
The Knicks are definitely more offensive-minded though, and defense gets put on the back-burner of priorities far too often.
As for the notion that teams cannot win championships in D'Antoni's system, that is debatable.
What is not debatable is that Rivers knows what it takes to coach an NBA championship team. His Celtics have won one title with him at the helm and have been finals contenders every season.
Additionally, he also has more playoff experience then D'Antoni and motivates his team a lot better defensively.
D'Antoni is a very good coach, but he lacks the credentials right now to make him a great coach.
And that is exactly what Rivers is.
Edge: Boston Celtic's Coach Doc Rivers
Boston Celtics' Momentum vs New York Knicks Momentum
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The Celtics have struggled since the Kendrick Perkins trade.
Boston is just playing above .500 ball since the trade and it is clear they lack effectiveness more than ever at the center position.
New York on the other hand gained some momentum to close out the season.
Although the Knicks lost their last two games, they were not at full strength with coach Mike D'Antoni opting to rest his key players.
Overall though, the Knicks are winners of seven out of their last 10 games. They are shooting great from beyond the arc and their defense, while still in need of improvement, has picked up lately.
It seems that New York has finally found its team chemistry while Boston is still struggling to get it together without Perkins.
Boston is a great, proven team, but the Knicks have more momentum heading into the series.
Edge: New York Knicks.
Health of New York Knicks vs Health of Boston Celtics
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Staying healthy is an important part of any success teams experience in the playoffs and the Knicks have a number of health concerns heading into the postseason.
New York maintains that Amar'e Stoudemire's ankle injury isn't serious and he will be at full strength come Sunday, but he is still a risk.
If Stoudemire injures his ankle even further and is forced to sit out one or more games, the Knicks do not stand a chance.
Furthermore, Chauncey Billups is also a concern for New York. He has had some quadriceps problems in his short period of time with the Knicks and being that he is aging, it is harder to bounce back from injury.
Billups is the Knicks' biggest health concern simply because of his age and proneness to injury. Without Billups, the Knicks offense becomes less of a threat. Toney Douglas may be able to adequately fill in, but New York needs their one-two punch.
Boston also has some injury concerns of its own.
Rajon Rondo is always an injury risk. The way he cuts in and out of the paint makes him a serious liability, but that is simply the way he plays.
Shaquille O'Neal has been deemed the only question mark for Sunday's playoff opener for Boston. He has struggled with injuries his entire career and at 39, he is the oldest player in the league and far from durable.
Additionally, the rest of Boston's core is aging. Paul Pierce, Ray Allen and Kevin Garnett have all proved to be able to handle the rigors of the NBA this season, but their age makes them susceptible to injury.
So while the Celtics' aging roster means they have a lot of playoff experience, it also means that they are more vulnerable to losing key players to injury.
The Knicks on the other hand are a young team. New York may have injury concerns of their own, but it is not as big of an issue for them.
Edge: New York Knicks.
Series Prediction
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After evaluating all the aspects of this series, the official prediction for the New York Knicks and Boston Celtics first round series is that the Celtics will win in six games.
The Knicks have come to be a much improved team as of late, but they are still not cohesive enough to beat this Boston team.
And while the Celtics have struggled recently, they always seem to pull it together when it counts and this year should be no different.
However, New York will make the series interesting, pushing it to six games before eventually falling.
Is it possible though for the Knicks to upset Boston?
Yes, Carmelo Anthony and Amar'e Stoudemire do have the potential to lead an upset.
But it isn't likely.
The Boston Celtics are a proven playoff team and regardless of their recent struggles, they are still of championship caliber. Paul Pierce and company will be able to fend off New York and make it through to the second round.
As for the Knicks, they are a young team and seem to be headed toward contending for an NBA title.
But not this year.
