2011 NBA Playoff Predictions: Each Team's Most Important X-Factor
Figuring out the NBA Playoffs is relatively simple.
When you look at a roster, you have to see how the pieces will add up to four victories in an elite seven game series.
The Los Angeles Lakers will be in the hunt for the NBA title this year, because Kobe Bryant gives them two wins in a series, Pau Gasol gives them one and Andrew Bynum's size gives them another. Along with those four generally given wins, they always seem to find a game through a Derek Fisher buzzer beater, an unlikely Ron Artest performance or the bench play of Lamar Odom.
The Miami Heat are the same way: LeBron James and Dwyane Wade should combine for three to four victories a series and then an extra win comes somewhere between Chris Bosh, or in theory, a hot shooting night from Mike Miller.
On the other hand, a team like the New Orleans Hornets only has Chris Paul (David West is injured) who could win a game in a series. This will not give the Hornets a chance to get out of the first round or even push their series to a game six.
The X-Factor, in my mind, is the player who wins you the fourth game in a series. If you have enough guys to account for four wins, the X-Factor is the guy who can win a game when things don't go according to plan.
Here's a list of the most important X-Factors in this year's playoffs.
What I Mean by Winning Their Team a Game in a Series
1 of 14
What I mean by this somewhat obscure, and not entirely measurable, statistic can be described like this:
To win your team a game in a series means individually, as a part of a tandem or a part of a large group, your contribution is the biggest factor on the game. Kobe Bryant does this at least two times a series, LeBron James and Dwyane Wade do it nearly as much and groups like the Boston Celtics defense or Orlando Magic three point shooting have done it in recent years.
Here's how the numbers look for players in this year's playoffs:
Kobe Bryant: 2
LeBron James: 2
Dwyane Wade: 2
Dwight Howard: 1.5
After those four, there are several players who can give you one game and guys like Kevin Durant and Derrick Rose who probably should be listed as 1.5 guys, but still have work to do in the playoffs to prove their postseason merit.
The flaw in this system, is like Dwyane Wade in 2006, when he arguably won four games for the Miami Heat in the Finals. There's also the chance a star flops and wins zero games for his team in a series, for example Joe Johnson in last year's Magic series.
However, I firmly believe Kobe Bryant will give you at least two victories in a series, by himself, and the combination of LeBron James and Dwyane Wade should give the Miami Heat almost four assured victories in every series they play, far more often than the times they give their team nothing.
Teams Not in the Conversation
2 of 14
In order to be in the conversation of "Most Important X-Factors," teams need to have the personnel to win three games in a first round series. Here are the teams that do not:
Indiana Pacers: Danny Granger might give them one game in a series. A collective night of high percentage shooting might give them another. They don't have a third victory.
New Orleans Hornets: Chris Paul gives them one game. Chris Paul with David West, would have given them two, but without West, the Hornets do not have the ability to push their first round opponent more than five games.
Philadelphia 76ers: The 76ers are close to being able to win a first round series. Andre Iguodala and their overall defensive toughness gives them one game. Their amount of young, talented guards gives them another. A healthy Elton Brand gives them half a game.
Atlanta Hawks: This may seem like a surprise, but remember that the Hawks barely escaped the first round last year, only to be dominated by the Magic in four games the following round. They had the personnel last year to win four games in a total of 11 playoff games.
Joe Johnson gives the Hawks one game, Josh Smith another and Jamal Crawford nearly gives the Hawks a third.
Memphis Grizzlies: Almost in the Conversation
3 of 14
Zach Randolph's size and productivity down low gives the Memphis Grizzlies a win.
The amount of depth they have, especially in the back court with Tony Allen, OJ Mayo and Shane Battier gives them another.
Rudy Gay would have given them a third win, which would have put the Grizzlies in position to get that final victory from an X-Factor guy like Mike Conley or Marc Gasol.
However, without Gay, the Grizzlies should max out at a six game series against either the San Antonio Spurs or Los Angeles Lakers.
Portland Trailblazers: Barely in the Conversation
4 of 14
LaMarcus Aldridge gives the Portland Trailblazers one victory in a series.
The combination of Gerald Wallace, Wesley Matthews and Nicolas Batum should give the Trailblazers another.
A fully healthy Brandon Roy gives them a win.
The Trailblazers are in the conversation because LaMarcus Aldridge is the type of guy who might be able to win two games for the Trailblazers in a playoff series. He's guaranteed to give them one, but as we saw all season long, he carried this team to a far higher seed than they would be without him. If he can give them two, the Wallace/Matthews/Batum trio can give them another, then Brandon Roy becomes one of the most talented X-Factors in the league.
There were positives and negatives in Brandon Roy's recent performance against the Lakers. The positive, is Roy was able to play for nearly 30 minutes. The negative, Roy's stat line was only five points, three rebounds and three assists. Those statistics need to be doubled for Roy to be an effective X-Factor in this year's playoffs.
Denver Nuggets: The Team Filled with X-Factors, but Could Still Exit First Round
5 of 14
Before the trade, Anthony gave the Nuggets one to two victories a series, Chauncey Billups gave them another and J.R. Smith would get hot for that fourth victory.
In the new era, J.R. Smith can still give them a victory, Nene Hilario has emerged as a dominant enough big man to grab another one and their overall depth, paired with the high altitude, gives them a third assured victory.
This is why the Denver Nuggets are so dangerous. If all three of those scenarios above play out, the Nuggets have the longest list of X-Factors, of any team, in the NBA.
It is very hard for me to believe that among Ty Lawson, Raymond Felton, Arron Afflalo, Al Harrington, Kenyon Martin, Danilo Gallinari and Wilson Chandler, that George Karl will not be able to find one guy to give him that fourth victory.
So why am I not taking the Nuggets further? If they match up with the Oklahoma City Thunder in the first round, the combination of Kevin Durant, Russell Westbrook and Kendrick Perkins' defense is more of a sure bet at winning three games in a series than J.R. Smith, Nene Hilario and take-your-pick from the Nuggets roster.
If they end up with the Dallas Mavericks in the first round, watch out.
Dallas Mavericks: The Least Intimidating Top 4 Seed
6 of 14
A lot of people are quick to say Dirk Nowitzki is not a clutch player. That is not entirely true.
Even though the Mavericks have struggled in the postseason, Nowitzki has actually played pretty well in their disappointing defeats. He's a sure bet to give the Mavericks one victory in a series, and a lot of times, he gives Dallas two wins.
The problem with the Mavericks has always been who gives them the other two to three wins in a series? Jason Terry is a solid bet to give the Mavericks one, and Tyson Chandler's defense should give the Mavericks a third.
So who is the X-Factor for Dallas?
1. Jason Kidd—If Kidd is healthy, his play at the point guard could win the Mavericks a game.
2. Rodrigue Beaubois—Maybe?
3. Peja Stojakovic—Yikes.
Think about it this way: While the San Antonio Spurs have George Hill, Gary Neal, Richard Jefferson or DeJuan Blair to rely on as their potential X-Factor player, the Dallas Mavericks' third option is a guy who was waived by the Toronto Raptors three months ago.
Orlando Magic: Can They Recapture the 2009 Hedo Turkoglu?
7 of 14
I wrote earlier that Dwight Howard gives the Magic 1.5 victories in a series. So what exactly does this mean?
In a seven game series, Dwight Howard always gives the Magic one victory by himself. When he had Marcin Gortat as his backup, he was a guarantee to give the Magic two victories, because he was protected from foul trouble (Gortat being that extra 0.5 to complete the two victories).
Gortat may be gone, but Kendrick Perkins is also out of the Eastern Conference. The Magic can bank on two victories from Dwight Howard in every series until the NBA Finals, because no team in the East has a center that can stop him. In the NBA Finals, he could face an Andrew Bynum, Kendrick Perkins or Tim Duncan so things differ, but in the East, expect Howard to give the Magic at least two wins a series.
Tally Jameer Nelson in for another win along with the Magic's three point shooting, which is almost guaranteed to be lights out for at least one of the games, and the Magic are up to three.
With those three games accounted for, the Magic are set up better this year, than they were last year, in their mix of X-Factors.
Vince Carter was unable to do the job last year for the Magic, but we saw Jason Richardson win games for the Phoenix Suns. Jason Richardson is my top pick for most important X-Factor of the Magic.
However, if Hedo Turkoglu can tap into whatever made him so dominant in the 2009 playoffs, the Magic will be in position to possibly upset the Chicago Bulls in the second round.
New York Knicks: Surprisingly Built Well for the Playoffs
8 of 14
Last year, in game three of the Western Conference Finals, Amar'e Stoudemire scored 42 points and pulled down 11 rebounds. This is the very definition of single handedly winning a game for his team.
In Game 2 of the 2009 Western Conference Finals, also against the Los Angeles Lakers, Carmelo Anthony scored 34 points and grabbed nine rebounds.
This is why you trade half your team away to put these two players together. The combination of Carmelo Anthony and Amar'e Stoudemire wins you a combined two games in a playoff series.
Chauncey Billups is called Mr. Big Shot for a reason: He puts the Knicks' number up to three.
I like Landry Fields as the key X-Factor for the New York Knicks. While Toney Douglass may have more potential for an offensive outburst, Fields is the guy who could bother Ray Allen enough to win a game in a first round series. If Fields has a night where he scores 15 and holds either Allen under 10, that should be enough to gain a victory for the Knicks.
San Antonio Spurs: 3 Is a Given, What About the 4th?
9 of 14
Tony Parker, Manu Ginobili and Tim Duncan give the San Antonio Spurs the three victories in a series. You can also almost pencil in Gregg Popovich's coaching for another victory.
They have a few worthy candidates for the X-Factor role:
George Hill—George Hill played well last year against the Dallas Mavericks in the Spurs' first round upset series.
Gary Neal—Very similar to George Hill, good production off the bench.
DeJuan Blair—Blair is not going to have a monster game statistically, but he can win a game for the Spurs with solid defense on Andrew Bynum.
Matt Bonner—Matt Bonner could win a game with his three point shooting for the Spurs the way Robert Horry, Steve Kerr and Toni Kukoc did for their teams.
Richard Jefferson—They're paying him $8.4 million this year. That's "win-us-one-game-in-a-series" type of money.
Chicago Bulls: A Lot of Possibilities
10 of 14
Derrick Rose will win the Chicago Bulls one game for sure, and by this time next year, I may have him listed as a two win guy.
Carlos Boozer is good for another victory.
Their collective defense is good for another.
The Bulls are a legitimate team, because to go along with their for sure guys, they have several solid options to fill in as the X-Factor.
Luol Deng—Hidden behind the MVP season of Derrick Rose, is a very solid year from Luol Deng. Deng scores 17.5 ppg and has come up big before for the Bulls.
Joakim Noah—His defense and rebounding could win a game the way Dennis Rodman used to in the Michael Jordan era.
Kyle Korver—He will more than likely be called upon to hit a game winning three point shot at some point this postseason.
Oklahoma City Thunder: The Addition of Perkins Is a Huge Deal
11 of 14
Kevin Durant is on the verge of becoming a two wins per series guy, and Russell Westbrook is not too far behind.
Kendrick Perkins is an unbelievably huge addition for the Thunder, because he gives them another solid bet for a victory in a series.
The Thunder need a guy to give them one more. Serge Ibaka may be able to provide this in a year or two, but right now, there's only one man to fill the role.
James Harden's performance is crucial for the Thunder's success. Oklahoma City needs offensive production out of Harden the deeper they go into the playoffs.
When they play against teams like the San Antonio Spurs or the Los Angeles Lakers, who have enough personnel to win four games in a series, the Thunder will need Harden to be an effective X-Factor if they plan on finally knocking out the Western Conference giants out of the playoffs.
Boston Celtics: Hanging On by a Massive Thread
12 of 14
The Big Four is still extremely valuable. Ray Allen's three point shooting wins a game in a series, Paul Pierce can be the best player on the court for a night, Rajon Rondo wins a game and Kevin Garnett does too.
On top of their Big Four, they were so dominant last year because their collective defense could win a game, Kendrick Perkins could win a game and even the Shrek and Donkey combination of Glen Davis/Nate Robinson could steal one. This allowed them to go down to the wire with the Los Angeles Lakers, because their stars matched up and so did their X-Factors.
The problem they are facing now is that they basically need a healthy Shaquille O'Neal to win the NBA title. If they can get the first 30 games of the season Shaq, then they can go all the way. Judging by his recent injuries, I doubt this can happen.
The Celtics may be a little down and out right now, but don't forget that they still have four guys who can each win a game in a series.
Miami Heat: Chris Bosh May Be the Best X-Factor in the League
13 of 14
Pat Riley brought him to Miami to be a part of the Big Three, but really, Chris Bosh is the X-Factor for the Miami Heat.
As I said in the first slide, LeBron James gives you two games in a series and so does Dwyane Wade. I think it was assumed Chris Bosh would give them one too.
I am not so convinced.
The other X-Factors have been somewhat of a bust. Mike Miller has not lived up to his contract and Udonis Haslem's defensive intensity has been absent due to injuries.
With Chris Bosh as the X-Factor, the Miami Heat have something no other team has. At the top of the league, would you rather bet on Ron Artest having another miraculous performance this postseason, Shaquille O'Neal magically becoming healthy again or Chris Bosh going for 30 and 10 to win a pivotal game in a series?
The Heat may not have as many potential X-Factors as others, but their leading candidate is better than any other X-Factor in the league.
Los Angeles Lakers: Plenty of X-Factors
14 of 14
Despite their recent losing streak, the Los Angeles Lakers are still the team to beat in the NBA.
It all starts with Kobe Bryant. Bryant gives the Lakers two wins in a series.
Then you add in Pau Gasol's one game and a healthy Andrew Bynum's one game.
What makes the Lakers so difficult is what we saw in last year's postseason. If Kobe Bryant is off or Andrew Bynum isn't fully healthy, they have a list of X-Factors that can make up the difference.
Lamar Odom—Odom creates a matchup problem in every series they play. He has been one of the most consistent Lakers all season long.
Derek Fisher—He always seems to hit big shots in the playoffs.
Ron Artest—It could be a crazy, three point bank shot, a last second tip in or, his tough man to man defense (which is his most reliable attribute) that wins a game. Since Artest is in charge of stopping Kevin Durant, LeBron James or Kevin Durant, a huge defensive game for Artest can decide a game.
Phil Jackson—His 11 championship rings have to account for something. Phil Jackson's coaching can win a game.
The Lakers are so difficult to knock out of the playoffs because of their expected performances and their somewhat unexpected X-Factor performances.
