Alabama vs. Florida: Preview and Predictions for SEC Championship 2020

Much of the luster was sapped out of this weekend's SEC Championship game long before kickoff this Saturday. 

Florida, which sat at No. 6 in the College Football Playoff Rankings prior to last weekend, had a chance to remain in that spot—if not leapfrog No. 5 Texas A&M—with a win over LSU.

That would have set the Gators up for a showdown with No. 1 Alabama in the SEC title game, and a win would have assured Florida its first trip to the College Football Playoff.

Instead, the Gators quite literally threw away a likely victory in the final minutes and have subsequently fallen to 8-2 and No. 7 in the rankings. 

Florida would need a miraculous turn of luck—beating Alabama, Notre Dame upsetting Clemson for a second time and Oklahoma knocking off Iowa State—to be back in the CFP conversation. Even with a loss, Alabama is unlikely to drop out of the top four after the regular season it had, and leapfrogging that many teams would be nearly impossible for Florida. 

But the fact that there's even a chance of that happening keeps some of the intrigue alive in a game where Alabama is favored by 17 points and hasn't lost in the SEC Championship Game since 2008. 

Key Storylines

Florida's Offense

Five years after Alabama decimated Florida 54-16 in the SEC title game en route to another appearance in the College Football Playoff National Championship, the Gators will hope to avoid a similar fate. And unlike the 2016 team, this one has the offensive horses to keep up with Alabama's. 

Quarterback Kyle Trask has been the most impressive—and improved—quarterback in the entire country this season, throwing for 3,717 yards, 40 touchdowns and just five interceptions. He has complete command of Dan Mullen's offense and has the ability to make any throw on the field.

Florida's offense as a whole is averaging an eye-popping 513 yards per game and ranks 12th nationally in scoring offense (41.7 PPG). The good news for Trask is he'll have his favorite target, tight end Kyle Pitts, back from injury and available for this game. 

Pitts is one of the biggest matchup nightmares in all of college football, and despite not having an overwhelming number of catches (36) or targets, he had 11 receiving touchdowns, which ranks fourth nationally regardless of position.

At 6'6" and 240 pounds, he's almost impossible for a defensive back cover in the red zone, and he's too fast for linebackers in open space. He'll assuredly be the focal point of Alabama's defensive scheme, but Trask has other weapons around him.

Eight Florida players have at least 15 catches this season, led by Kadarius Toney with 62. Toney also has nine receiving touchdowns and another on the ground, providing Trask another option in both the passing and rushing games. 

Alabama's Offense

On the other side sits the second-highest scoring offense in all of college football (49.5 PPG), and arguably the front-runner for this year's Heisman Trophy. No, not Mac Jones, though he's had an impressive year for someone who was considered a game manager by most heading into this season. Instead, it's been wide receiver DeVonta Smith, who has put together one of the best campaigns by a college wideout in recent memory.

In just 10 games, Smith has racked up 83 catches, 1,327 yards and 15 touchdowns, each of which are in the top three nationally. The Heisman hasn't gone to a receiver since Desmond Howard won it in 1991, but Smith has been hands down the most dominant player in college football this year while doing it on the No. 1 team in the country. 

Alabama's running game is no slouch, though. Senior back Najee Harris leads the country with 22 rushing touchdowns and has totaled 1,333 all-purpose yards in 10 games. Fellow senior Brian Robinson Jr. has been a good change-of-pace back as well, rushing for six touchdowns of his own. 

Directing it all is Jones, who had the unlucky assignment of following up one of the greatest quarterbacks in Alabama history, Tua Tagovailoa. He's been more than up for the challenge, though, completing 76.4 percent of his passes while throwing for 332 yards per game and 27 total touchdowns. 

Prediction 

While Florida's offense might be able to keep pace for a while, it's not as though Alabama has a run-of-the-mill, average defense—the Tide rank 11th nationally in points against.

Alabama will get enough stops for its offense to break the game open in the second half and secure the No. 1 ranking in the CFP and a spot in the Sugar Bowl semifinal. 

Alabama 45, Florida 27