Ranking the Best, Worst Potential Playoff Matchups for the Pittsburgh Steelers
The Pittsburgh Steelers can go ahead and start thinking about the 2020 postseason. While they haven't officially clinched a playoff spot, they're sitting at 10-0 and have a somewhat forgiving remaining schedule—of the four teams with a winning record, the Steelers have already beaten two. In fact, it's not unrealistic to start thinking of a potential undefeated season in the Steel City.
But getting through the postseason and to the Super Bowl is the real goal for this Steelers team. Of course, there's no telling exactly whom Pittsburgh will meet in the postseason. Eight other teams in the AFC currently own six wins or more with just six weeks remaining. The Steelers could come across any of them at some point during the playoffs.
So whom should the Steelers feel good (or bad) about having to face in the postseason? We'll examine the aforementioned eight teams with six or more wins and rank them in order of difficulty based on factors like recent performance, overall talent, quarterback play and how they match up with what Pittsburgh does and doesn't do best.
8. Cleveland Browns
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The Cleveland Browns are a dangerous team. They have a lethal rushing attack led by Nick Chubb and Kareem Hunt, and they create enough plays on defense to win close games against equally matched opponents. However, the Steelers outclass Cleveland by quite a bit, and this is the one team Pittsburgh should hope to see in the postseason more than any other.
The Steelers have owned the Browns during the Ben Roethlisberger era, holding a 24-2-1 mark over Cleveland with Big Ben under center.
Pittsburgh has never lost to the Browns at home with Roethlisberger as the starting quarterback. Barring something completely unforeseen, this matchup would be played at Heinz Field, and it's unlikely that the trend will shift in the postseason.
Could the Browns play spoiler? Theoretically, yes. If Roethlisberger makes some early mistakes and Cleveland can lean on its running game heavily, the Browns could win. However, that's the opposite of what happened in the first meeting: As Baker Mayfield melted down, the Browns abandoned the run and Pittsburgh cruised to a 38-7 win.
Things might not be quite that easy in the playoffs—especially if Nick Chubb is available, which he wasn't in the first meeting—but history suggests a Browns matchup can be penciled in as a win.
7. Miami Dolphins
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Due to Pittsburgh's favorable history against Cleveland, the Miami Dolphins represent a tougher playoff matchup—but perhaps not by much.
The biggest issue for Miami is that it will likely be starting rookie quarterback Tua Tagovailoa in the postseason. I'll say "likely" because Tagovailoa was benched for veteran Ryan Fitzpatrick against the Denver Broncos in Week 11.
Tagovailoa has shown that he hasn't quite grasped the nuances of being an NFL signal-caller. He's had two tremendous games and two bad ones. Against a defense that ranks fourth overall and first in points allowed, a bad one seems likely.
After beating Jake Luton and the Jacksonville Jaguars on Sunday, Pittsburgh is now 26-4 against rookie quarterbacks since 2004, per Ron Cook of the Pittsburgh Post-Gazette. It's hard to think that Tagovailoa will grow enough over the next month-plus to buck that trend.
Miami is not a bad team—it is 6-4 for a reason—but it's extremely difficult to envision a rookie quarterback knocking this Steelers team out of the postseason.
6. Las Vegas Raiders
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The Las Vegas Raiders are proving to be a feisty AFC contender. They have an elite running back in Josh Jacobs, are getting tremendous play from quarterback Derek Carr and have already knocked off some of the top teams in the NFL.
Las Vegas owns victories over the Browns, Kansas City Chiefs and the New Orleans Saints.
The biggest problem for Las Vegas, though, is that it doesn't match up particularly well against Pittsburgh. Carr, Darren Waller, Nelson Agholor and the rest of the offense could make strides against Pittsburgh's third-ranked passing defense, but the Raiders defense could struggle to fluster Roethlisberger.
Las Vegas ranks just 28th against the pass and has logged a mere 11 sacks this season.
Even if the Raiders can protect Carr—who has been sacked just 14 times this year—and put points on the board, the secondary could fold against a quarterback accustomed to late-game heroics. That's exactly what happened against Kansas City on Sunday night.
With the Raiders having to travel cross-country to play in Pittsburgh, the Steelers would likely have to have a major off day to fall to Las Vegas in the postseason.
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5. Buffalo Bills
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If quarterback Josh Allen is on, the Buffalo Bills will be a tough out for the Steelers—both in the playoffs and in Week 14. Allen is virtually unstoppable when he's in a rhythm and seeing the whole field, and he has blossomed tremendously with new No. 1 wideout Stefon Diggs on the roster.
The biggest reason Allen could be a nuisance for Pittsburgh is his athleticism and dual-threat ability. The biggest asset of the Steelers defense is their pass rush—led by T.J. Watt and Bud Dupree. Allen has the necessary skill set to escape and outrun the pass rush or run into the teeth of it as a ball-carrier.
This would not mark the first time the Steelers defense has struggled to contain a dual-threat quarterback this season. In the first meeting with the Baltimore Ravens, Lamar Jackson passed for 208 yards, rushed for 65 yards and tossed two touchdowns to go with two interceptions.
The Steelers only won that game when Jackson's last-second pass was knocked away at the goal line. Allen has shown the ability to lead late comeback drives of his own—most notably against the Los Angeles Rams and Arizona Cardinals—though a Kyler Murray Hail Mary put a damper on the latter.
Buffalo doesn't possess a shutdown defense or a strong rushing attack, but it plays a fast, physical brand of football and has already knocked off the likes of the Rams, Raiders and Seattle Seahawks. This one will come down to whether Allen is in the zone or having an off day.
4. Tennessee Titans
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Tennessee Titans running back Derrick Henry has broken a lot of hearts over the last couple of years. The reigning NFL rushing leader did it against the Ravens in the 2019 postseason and again with a walk-off overtime touchdown against Baltimore on Sunday.
The Steelers have already beaten the Titans once this season, but that doesn't mean Henry can't break their hearts in the playoffs, too.
Pittsburgh only narrowly escaped Tennessee in Week 7, winning by a field goal after Stephen Gostkowski missed a 45-yard attempt to send it to overtime. Roethlisberger tossed three interceptions in that game, and Henry was held to just 75 rushing yards.
If Henry gets going in a rematch, though, it could get ugly for Pittsburgh. The key for Tennessee will be keeping it close enough to continue leaning on him. While the Steelers do rank seventh against the run, they're a more modest 17th in yards per carry allowed.
If the Titans can get an early lead and grind out the game with Henry, they can absolutely knock Pittsburgh out of the postseason.
3. Indianapolis Colts
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The Indianapolis Colts are one of the few teams remaining on the schedule that could knock off the Steelers in the regular season. The reason? A defense that ranks fourth against the pass, third against the run, second overall and fifth in points allowed.
As the Colts proved during their Week 11 win over the Green Bay Packers, they can ugly-up a game against any opponent, and that could cause problems for Roethlisberger and the Steelers offense.
Arguably the ugliest the Steelers offense has played this season came against the Dallas Cowboys in Week 9. Big Ben was clutch with late-game heroics that helped Pittsburgh squeak by in a 24-19 contest. However, he struggled to find a rhythm for much of the game, which allowed the Cowboys to build a late lead.
If something similar happens against Indianapolis, the Steelers could be in significant trouble. They won't be facing an untested quarterback like Garrett Gilbert; they'll be facing a likely future Hall of Famer in Philip Rivers.
Rivers has the experience and the know-how to manage a defensive struggle, which is exactly what this matchup could wind up being.
2. Baltimore Ravens
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As previously mentioned, the Steelers barely beat the Ravens in Round 1, and they had a lot of trouble with Baltimore's rushing attack.
As a team, the Ravens racked up 265 yards of rushing offense. If not for Lamar Jackson's two interceptions and Baltimore's nine penalties, the Steelers probably would already own their first loss of 2020.
Is Pittsburgh the better team right now? Absolutely, and it could easily take Round 2 this Thursday. However, anyone who has followed this AFC North rivalry for any length of time knows that the cliched expression "throw out the record books" holds true here.
These games tend to get ugly and can go either way on any given day Baltimore and Pittsburgh take the field together.
"It's tough. It's a physical one, it can be nasty at times," Roethlisberger told reporters before the Week 8 meeting.
If Pittsburgh is the team making mistakes in Round 3 instead of Baltimore, it's going to be immensely difficult for the Steelers to walk away victorious.
1. Kansas City Chiefs
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Unsurprisingly, we have the 9-1 Kansas City Chiefs at the top of our list. The biggest reason for this, obviously, is the presence of quarterback Patrick Mahomes. The fourth-year gunslinger has made a career out of staging dramatic comebacks—he had yet another Sunday night against the Raiders—and even the best defenses can struggle to contain him.
Just ask the San Francisco 49ers, who held a double-digit lead over Kansas City in Super Bowl LIV before Mahomes went off late in the game to secure the win.
Like the 49ers last season, Pittsburgh possesses a championship-caliber defense. That doesn't mean Mahomes can't rip the collective heart out of Steelers nation in what would most likely be the AFC title game.
If all of Mahomes' top weapons—Tyreek Hill, Clyde Edwards-Helaire, Travis Kelce, Sammy Watkins, Mecole Hardman and Le'Veon Bell—are healthy, no lead will be safe until the final whistle.
As NBC Sports' Peter King recently put it when writing about Mahomes, "We are watching [Michael] Jordan."
Mahomes is always going to have a chance to win on the final shot.
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