Do the Bucks Have Enough Behind Giannis to Win an NBA Championship?
The last time we saw the Milwaukee Bucks, they were on the wrong end of a 4-0 series run. After their hot two-game start to the Eastern Conference Finals, Kawhi Leonard and the Toronto Raptors bum-rushed them to close out the series in six.
The Bucks' season was an overall success. But the end was bitter, to say the least.
Now, Kawhi is gone to the Los Angeles Clippers, Kevin Durant is on the mend in Brooklyn, and Klay Thompson will miss at least half the season as he recovers from a torn ACL. With last year's Finals participants projected to be (much) weaker, the ball could shift to the Bucks' court.
They have the reigning MVP in Giannis Antetokounmpo, an upper-tier coach in Mike Budenholzer and a still-deep supporting cast led by first-time All-Star Khris Middleton. The loss of Malcolm Brogdon to the Indiana Pacers may hurt, but the Bucks are still a serious title contender.
Are they the premier contender? That's where things get tricky.
Short on Influencers
The league's best teams (on paper, anyway) are headlined by terrifying duos. The Clippers have Kawhi and Paul George; LeBron James and Anthony Davis loom large for the Los Angeles Lakers across the hall of Staples Center. Joel Embiid and Ben Simmons are a clunky but dominant pairing.
Outside of Simmons, all those players can take over a game on a whim. Even Simmons is a walking mismatch who can stress defenses after misses.
The Bucks have Giannis, an offensive system unto himself. His ability to teleport in transition—or in the half court—draws the eyes of multiple defenders at a time. He bends the floor in ways we've only seen from brutes like LeBron and Shaquille O'Neal, which was enough to lead the Bucks to the fourth-best offense in the league (113.5 offensive rating) and their first 60-win season since 1980-81.
Ultimately, that proved too little.
The Raptors were equipped with enough rangy defenders to bother Giannis (by his godly standard), which put the onus on others to help carry the weight. But they couldn't do so.
Middleton was—and is—the undisputed No. 2 for the Bucks, and he's a darn good one. He's a three-level scorer with underrated playmaking chops, capable of keeping the offense afloat with a barrage of mid-range jumpers.
But while the mid-range is Middleton's comfort zone, it's a tough diet to live on. Not only is it inefficient compared to shots at the rim or three-point attempts, but it's also difficult to shift defenses when you're taking shots they're generally OK allowing.
Middleton underperformed against the Raptors, averaging just 13.7 points on 41.1 percent shooting from the field. Eric Bledsoe completely disappeared offensively (10.2 points with a 29.4/17.2/76.2 shooting split), forcing George Hill and a recovering Brogdon to pick up the slack.
Hill and Brogdon performed admirably (combined 24.2 points with a 46.9/39.6/78.3 shooting split), but neither really stressed the Raptors to the point of opening opportunities for others.
The Bucks have essentially replaced the latter with Wesley Matthews, a vet whose three-and-D reputation precedes him a bit at this point. And if last year's playoffs proved anything, it's that Milwaukee needs a little more juice in the creation department to take some pressure off Giannis.
Time to Pursue the Point God?
Bledsoe is one of the NBA's best perimeter defenders. His plus wingspan, strength and quick hands allow him to hound opposing point guards and punch above his weight when called upon.
His bag is much more mixed offensively.
The jumper is questionable (career 33.6 percent from three), which hinders his driving and underrated playmaking ability in playoff situations, particularly in the half court. Teams smartly duck under screens and dare him to beat them with pull-ups. He's practically ignored off the ball, which cramps the floor for Giannis.
One potential solution: calling up the Oklahoma City Thunder to inquire about Chris Paul.
The issues are obvious.
The 34-year-old floor general is older and much more expensive than Bledsoe. The latter point especially matters once you consider Giannis' impending contract decision. If he does accept a supermax a year from now, potentially having him, Paul and Middleton on the books could be crippling from a cap perspective. If he decides to leave, there would be no purpose in having Paul on a hard-to-move contract.
Heck, that contract, which pays Paul $124.1 million over the next three seasons, would be hard to acquire now. Assuming Giannis and Middleton are off the table, it would take Bledsoe and at least two of Hill, Ersan Ilyasova, Robin Lopez and D.J. Wilson to get in the game.
Here's the counter: Title windows close incredibly fast in the NBA. Even at this advanced stage of his career, Paul projects as a better fit alongside Giannis.
Via Synergy, Paul has ranked in the 80th percentile or better as a spot-up shooter in five of the past seven seasons. Even during a down year, he shot better from three (35.8 percent) than Bledsoe (32.9 percent).
Paul remains one of the best mid-range shooters in the game, particularly after snaking around screens. He ranked in the 88th percentile in off-the-dribble jumpers last year. Bledsoe is coming off the best season of his career there (81st percentile) but still lags well behind.
And we don't even have to talk about how much of a savant Paul is as a passer out of pick-and-rolls.
This would be a downgrade defensively, but not by much. Paul still stays attached to guards over screens at a high level. Sloppy dribbling is an invitation for him to pick you clean; he averaged two steals per game last year.
The on-court fit is there. The Bucks would just have to decide if the upgrade is a worthwhile one.
The Warriors' Shiny New Toy
If Paul is too old and expensive for their taste, maybe an All-Star swap of Middleton and D'Angelo Russell could do the trick.
This would essentially be a shot-creation shuffle for the Bucks. Both Middleton and Russell do most of their work as pull-up artists with an affinity for mid-range twos. The bonus for Milwaukee would be the passing ability Russell provides.
Giannis desperately needs a partner who can set him up for easy looks and carry the load when needed. In theory, that could be Russell. We just saw him lead an injury-riddled Brooklyn Nets team to the playoffs. His combination of off-the-bounce shot-making and passing vision could be the lift the Bucks have been missing.
Of course, the obvious rebuttal is that Russell looked overwhelmed as a playoff focal point against the Philadelphia 76ers. There's also the matter of Russell's defensive aptitude. He tried a lot harder last year but is still a step too slow to handle top-tier point guards and struggles to navigate screens.
The counter to the counters: Russell would be more at home as a No. 2 alongside Giannis, and Bledsoe could handle the opposing point guard duties. Matthews also has a history of defending bigger wings; it would be a tough ask at this stage of the 33-year-old's career, but it's nothing he hasn't done before.
A Bledsoe-Russell-Matthews-Giannis-Brook Lopez lineup would still feature four plus defenders (3.5 if you're down on Matthews) and enough spacing to stretch defenses thin. But if Russell doesn't quite fit the bill, the Bucks could use his name to chase after a different star.
Enter the Bradley Beal Sweepstakes
I suggested this three-teamer on Twitter and didn't get shouted down for it. That's all the permission I need to fully hash this out:
Bradley Beal's clock is ticking in Washington.
He's been offered a three-year, $111 million deal, but he has yet to accept it and is facing an Oct. 21 deadline to do so. That's an understandable decision once you realize Beal stands to make a lot more money if he waits. If he makes an All-NBA team this season, he would be eligible for a five-year super-max worth up to $254 million. Even if he doesn't, the Wizards could offer him a four-year max worth $154 million.
His decision to wait is also understandable considering the franchise point guard (John Wall) is out with a torn Achilles, his backup (Isaiah Thomas) will be out roughly a month following thumb surgery, and the Wizards' second-best player is Thomas Bryant.
Bryant is a good young big, but, I mean, come on.
Beal loves Washington; he's said as much multiple times. But his wait-and-see approach is at least a little telling. If he decides he doesn't want to commit long-term, it would behoove the Wizards to get a quality package back for him.
A package headlined by a 28-year old Middleton is fine, but it isn't optimal. A 23-year-old Russell, though? He may be more enticing.
Russell would be a locked-in building block who could play alongside Wall whenever he returns. Middleton would fit as a secondary option alongside Stephen Curry and immediately upgrade the defense, and he fits the Warriors' win-now timeline. Beal would give the Bucks a legitimate any-way-you-want-it scorer with underrated playmaking chops.
A deal like this couldn't happen until Dec. 15 at the earliest, but there is logic on all sides.
The Bucks should be considered serious title contenders as-is. Their Giannis-plus-shooters setup gives them one of the highest floors in the league. If they want to further solidify themselves as threats, adding a little more creation juice might be their best bet.
All stats, unless otherwise indicated, courtesy of Basketball Reference and NBA.com.
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