Fantasy Basketball 2018: Early-Round Rankings and NBA Mock Draft Analysis
The 2018-19 NBA tips off in less than two weeks, meaning fantasy basketball owners have either finished their drafts or are in the cram-session portion of their preparation process.
If you're in the latter group, we're here to help.
The offseason produced a ton of movement that must be sorted out for fantasy purposes. Is LeBron James more or less valuable with the Los Angeles Lakers? Which rookies should be drafted first, and when should they go? How can anyone correctly peg Kawhi Leonard's value after the last year he's had?
We'll find those answers in due time. For now, let's look at positional rankings for the upcoming campaign and analyze a recent mock draft from a major outlet.
Positional Rankings
Point Guard
1. James Harden, HOU
2. Russell Westbrook, OKC
3. Stephen Curry, GS
4. Damian Lillard, POR
5. Ben Simmons, PHI
6. John Wall, WAS
7. Chris Paul, HOU
8. Kyle Lowry, TOR
9. Kyrie Irving, BOS
10. Kemba Walker, CHO
Shooting Guard
1. James Harden, HOU
2. Victor Oladipo, IND
3. DeMar DeRozan, SAS
4. Donovan Mitchell, UTA
5. Jimmy Butler, MIN
6. Jrue Holiday, NOP
7. Bradley Beal, WAS
8. CJ McCollum, POR
9. Devin Booker, PHO
10. Luka Doncic, DAL
Small Forward
1. Giannis Antetokounmpo, MIL
2. LeBron James, LAL
3. Kevin Durant, GSW
4. Ben Simmons, PHI
5. Kawhi Leonard, TOR
6. DeMar DeRozan, SAS
7. Jimmy Butler, MIN
8. Paul George, OKC
9. Khris Middleton, MIL
10. Jayson Tatum, BOS
Power Forward
1. Giannis Antetokounmpo, MIL
2. Anthony Davis, NOP
3. LeBron James, LAL
4. Kevin Durant, GSW
5. Kevin Love, CLE
6. Draymond Green, GSW
7. LaMarcus Aldridge, SAS
8. Blake Griffin, DET
9. Jayson Tatum, BOS
10. Tobias Harris, LAC
Center
1. Anthony Davis, NOP
2. Karl-Anthony Towns, MIN
3. Nikola Jokic, DEN
4. Joel Embiid, PHI
5. Andre Drummond, DET
6. Kevin Love, CLE
7. Draymond Green, GSW
8. LaMarcus Aldridge, SAS
9. Marc Gasol, MEM
10. DeAndre Jordan, DAL
Mock Draft Analysis
Ten ESPN experts got together for a 13-round mock draft. Using a rotisserie scoring system, the scribes had a lot of obvious picks, a few head-scratchers and some really impressive ones.
Let's take a look at a few notable selections.
Best Value: Eric Bledsoe at No. 57
When Eric Bledsoe is healthy, he helps you across all categories.
The Milwaukee Bucks man was the only player to average at least five assists, two steals and 1.5 threes last season. He rounded out his stat sheet with 17.7 points, 3.8 rebounds and average-to-really good shooting percentages (47.3/34.7/79.5). Altogether, he was the 21st-rated player on FantasyPros.
So, why is he going 57th in this mock? Good question.
It's probably some combination of his injury history, the league-wide depth at point guard and sometimes shaky shooting. But Bledsoe was really productive last season, and there are reasons to believe he'll be even better.
It will help having Mike Budenholzer now at the helm, having a summer to grow with Giannis Antetokounmpo and no longer having to cede shots to Jabari Parker.
Bledsoe might be a "meh" starter in real life, but he's a borderline stud in the fantasy realm.
Biggest Reach: Kevin Love at No. 18
The rationale isn't hard to follow here. With LeBron James out of the picture, Kevin Love is free to seize control of the Cleveland Cavaliers' offense and potentially return to the statistical dominance of his days in the Gopher State.
We're believers—to a degree. While Love lands in our top five at power forward, he wouldn't be one of our first 20 picks.
For starters, a ton of time has passed since he was pairing 25-plus points with a dozen-plus rebounds for the Minnesota Timberwolves. Even if he's back to being a No. 1 option, he's 30 years old now. He might remember how to ride a bicycle, but there will be new aches and pains and perhaps less stamina.
He's been a complementary piece for the last four seasons, averaging 17.1 points and 10.0 rebounds over that stretch. Maybe those numbers don't matter to you with James gone, but this one should—Love has missed 45 games the last two seasons. So, in addition to not knowing just how rich a reward he'll deliver, we must also acknowledge a fairly significant risk factor.
That's a few too many question marks for a second-round selection.
Most Intriguing: Kawhi Leonard at No. 13
This is intriguing for a lot of reasons, not the least of which being that the pick was auto-drafted in an expert mock. As Marc J. Spears explained, a time zone mixup had him arrive to the draft after his first five picks had been made.
So, it's tough to tell if this selection represents Leonard's actual value, which feels appropriate. How do you evaluate a player who suited up nine times last season, might want a different team next year and, if healthy, could conceivably be this season's most dominant player?
The bust potential of this pick is tied exclusively to health risks, but the boom aspect is tricky to gauge. Can he immediately go back to being the monster performer he was in 2016-17, when he tallied 25.5 points on 48.5/38.0/88.0 shooting to go along with 5.8 rebounds, 3.5 assists, 2.0 triples and 1.8 assists? Or will his recovery and change of address require a transition period that limits his statistical ceiling?
That's impossible to know for now, but guessing correctly on Leonard could be the decision that crowns a fantasy champion.
Statistics used courtesy of Basketball-Reference.com.
