Houston Rockets' Top Offseason Priorities and Potential Targets
The Houston Rockets were close enough to taste the champagne and hear the raucous jubilation of an overdue championship celebration.
But they couldn't sneak past the goal line in their de facto Finals bout with the Golden State Warriors. Between Chris Paul's horrifically timed hamstring strain and a historic drought from distance, the Rockets couldn't extend their season beyond a breakthrough trip to the Western Conference finals.
Houston, though, heads off into the summer with more than what-if questions. It has the confidence of being the campaign's best team by wins (65) and net efficiency (plus-8.5) and different options add pieces to this roster—perhaps even by the blockbuster variety.
The James Harden-Chris Paul tandem proved among the league's most potent. Having an offensive wizard like Mike D'Antoni setting everything in motion felt like a gift from the hoop gods. Houston embraced analytically based offense like no one before and played it at an all-time level, while simultaneously surging into the top 10 of defensive efficiency.
And to think, this was only the first year of Harden and Paul.
Keeping that duo intact is the first priority in an eventful, possibly very pricey summer.
Setting the Stage
It isn't cheap to contend for the NBA crown, especially with a costly swing and miss on the books. The Rockets already have $77.6 million going to six players next season—$20.4 million of which belongs to Ryan Anderson, who they mostly abandoned once the playoffs opened.
That said, Houston's summer roadmap seems relatively straightforward.
Paul, Trevor Ariza and Clint Capela (restricted) are all bound for free agency. Keep them around—perhaps with new deals for Luc Mbah a Moute and/or Gerald Green—and that probably uses most of the available money.
But if the Rockets are willing to whittle their roster down to just its superstar core, they can create enough wiggle room to dream. The right combination of economic sacrifice from certain players and cap sorcery by general manager Daryl Morey potentially puts Houston in the running for this market's most notable name: LeBron James.
"To make this work, the Rockets would need to trade Ryan Anderson, PJ Tucker and Nene, all without taking any salary back, plus let Trevor Ariza, Luc Mbah a Moute and Tarik Black just walk as free agents," NBC Sports' Kurt Helin wrote. "Even that might not be enough; there would need to be other deals to clear cap space or both LeBron and Paul need to agree to discounts."
That's a lot of cuts for any club, let alone one that came this close to the ultimate prize. But with an executive as creative and daring as Morey, it's hard to rule out Houston in any superstar pursuit.
The Rockets will get one opportunity to improve before free agency, and that's on draft night. While they traded away both their first- and second-round picks during the Paul pursuit, they did add a second-rounder during last year's talent grab. They hold the 46th selection, their return for trading the rights to Dillon Brooks last June.
Priority No. 1: Properly Pricing Chris Paul
The reality of the Paul-Harden pair blew far past most people's expectations for what was possible in playing both point guards together for a season.
Together, they equaled 49.0 points, 16.7 assists, 10.8 rebounds and 3.5 steals on a nightly basis. The tandem produced a 44-5 record and gargantuan plus-13.6 net efficiency rating when deployed together. Their fingerprints were littered across Houston's franchise-record for wins (65) and most playoff victories since capturing the 1995 title (11).
"They got together and decided, 'We're going to make this work,'" Rockets coach Mike D'Antoni told Yahoo Sports' Michael Lee. "And guess what? They're making it work. ... If you don't care about the little things, like the stats and who's getting the interview at the end of the game and you just want to win, then they make it work."
Clearly, it's in the Rockets' best interest to have Harden and Paul keep working together. But that doesn't mean the 33-year-old Paul should be handed a blank check.
While the nine-time All-Star could ink a new five-year, $205 million deal, that feels too long and too rich.
Paying anyone that amount of money into their late 30s is risky, and it's probably even more so in this case. While Paul's cerebral game could age well, his body might not agree to do the same. He's lost at least 20 games to injuries in three of the last five seasons, and this wasn't the first time his medical misfortunes have surfaced at the worst possible time.
Locking him in for the highest possible salary while also owing $64.3 million to Harden, Anderson and Eric Gordon next season (and $73.2 million in 2019-20) would greatly reduce the Rockets' ability to add to their core. Not to mention, it would fail to capitalize on what should be team-friendly conditions in this free-agency market.
"The Rockets could retain [Paul] for far less than the max," Bleacher Report's Grant Hughes opined. "Because how robust, exactly, do you think the market for a 33-year-old point guard is going to be? When you consider almost all the teams with enough money to give Paul a reasonable offer are nowhere near contention ... the landing spots practically disappear."
The first focus is re-signing Paul and making sure he's happy. But getting that done at a decent cost is almost equally important.
Priority No. 2: Keeping Clint Capela
Houston has one hope for saving money on Clint Capela's next deal—his restricted status scaring away possible suitors. There's already one report that won't happen. A league source told Rockets Wire's Kelly Iko that the Phoenix Suns are ready to offer Capela "a max or near-max contract" in free agency.
Since that report surfaced before the Suns hit the lottery jackpot and perhaps positioned themselves to add Deandre Ayton, maybe that specific offer sheet isn't coming for Capela. But a rich contract is coming from somewhere, a fact Houston probably accepted a while back.
In November, Morey described Capela as being "on the way" to becoming a "near-elite two-way player," per ESPN.com's Tim MacMahon. D'Antoni took the praise a step further in the same piece:
"I'll be very surprised if he doesn't become, if not the best center in the league, one of the best," he said. "I'll be shocked. ... When you say what the modern center should look like, it'll have his picture there."
And these glowing words were vocalized before Capela treated this campaign like his personal trampoline to the top of the center ranks.
His 24.5 player efficiency rating was fourth among bigs and 12th overall. He paced the Association with a 65.2 field-goal percentage. He was one of eight players to average at least 13 points, 10 rebounds and 1.5 blocks, and he had the third-most win shares of that group (10.2). Among players who finished two-plus plays per game as a pick-and-roll screener, none scored at a higher rate (1.34 points per possession).
Capela defends both inside and out, provides an active presence on the glass and doesn't need post touches to stay engaged. Even though he's neither a spacer (14 attempts beyond 10 feet) nor a reliable free-throw shooter (career 48.2 percent), he might be the ideal center in this system.
"We'll have him here as long as he'll have us," Morey said, per MacMahon. "He couldn't price himself out."
Draft Targets
Houston desperately needs young, cheap talent on the books. At 28 years old, Harden is actually the second-youngest player with a guaranteed contract for next season. (Barely used big man Chinanu Onuaku, 21, is the youngest.)
Fortunately, the 46th pick might provide more relief than one might think. Since 2012, it has produced more hits—Jordan Clarkson, Norman Powell and Darius Miller, chief among them—than misses.
There appears to be a handful of prospects who could help the Rockets keep that trend going.
"Houston should have upperclassmen like Devonte' Graham, Jevon Carter, Grayson Allen, Shake Milton or Sviatoslav Mykhailiuk highlighted as potential targets," Bleacher Report's Jonathan Wasserman wrote.
It's possible Allen's strong showing at the combine pushed him out of this range, but that still leaves a bunch of interesting names in play.
Graham (Kansas) was one of two players to average at least 17 points, seven assists and 2.5 threes per game. Carter (West Virginia), who has some Patrick Beverley in him, was the Big 12's Defensive Player of the Year this season and last. Milton (SMU) had three-year marks of 42.7 percent three-point shooting and 3.9 assists against 1.8 turnovers. Mykhailiuk (Kansas) buried 115 triples at a 44.4 percent clip as a senior.
While the Rockets will likely take the best-player-available route, don't be surprised if that prospect provides perimeter shooting and/or defensive versatility.
Free-Agency Targets
Houston's potential free-agency plans come from different ends of the spectrum. It's either mostly sitting out the external shopping, or it's making a furious push for the planet's premier talent.
The Rockets are reportedly one of four teams James will consider, per The Ringer's Kevin O'Connor. They could give him the supporting star power he lacks in Cleveland, plus zero state income taxes and a second Banana Boat-er in Paul.
The question is whether Houston would first be willing to make the necessary cuts.
"The cap gymnastics are really tough," a Western Conference general manager told Bleacher Report's Ric Bucher. "[Eric] Gordon and Ryan [Anderson] would have to be gone."
And that's assuming it's possible to move Anderson. Houston reportedly paired him with two first-round picks last summer and still couldn't find any takers, the executive told Bucher.
Considering how much money must go just to put reasonable offers in front of James and Paul, the Rockets might not deem the reward worth the risk, as Lee Jenkins of Sports Illustrated reported:
"I asked a couple people in Houston about [pursuing James] and there was sort of a look of 'Why would we break this up right now?' Because they know everything they would have to give up, they know how many moves they would have to make and would they be able to preserve the same level of shooting, the same level of defense?"
Then again, if the prize is LeBron, doesn't Morey have to explore it? James would have all the shooting he needs to thrive, plus an elite playmaker at either side. It's hard finding a better basketball fit for the nine-time Finalist.
One semi-workaround would be for James to pick up his $35.6 million player option and force a trade to Houston, the same avenue Paul took last summer. But there'd be more money to match (Paul's option was for $24.5 million) and fewer sweeteners to send out. The Rockets already traded their first-rounder, and they no longer have up-and-comers like Sam Dekker and Montrezl Harrell.
If Houston doesn't go big-game hunting—or comes up empty—it should focus its funds on re-upping with Paul, Capela and Ariza. Building from there will depend on the organization's willingness to spend, since new deals for Paul and Capela could launch this team into the tax.
If the Rockets are willing to take the tax hit from spending their mid-level exception, that might be enough for history's most-active perimeter shooters to chase another spacer. This free-agent crop boasts some elite marksmen, including Wayne Ellington (tied for sixth in total triples) and Joe Harris (tied for 16th in three-point percentage).
Avery Bradley might be too expensive, but he'd bring a needed dose of three-and-D savvy if not. Mario Hezonja would be a fascinating project for D'Antoni. Anthony Tolliver's shooting alone should get him a look, and he might have enough other skills to prove more playable than Anderson. James Ennis is a versatile defender and perhaps someone the Rockets think could be coached into better shooting.
These are, at best, supplemental pieces, but that might be all the Rockets feel they need. If they sense more tinkering is required, then Houston's summer could be almost as exciting as its breakout campaign.
Unless otherwise indicated, all stats are from Basketball Reference or NBA.com. Salary information obtained via Basketball Insiders.
Zach Buckley covers the NBA for Bleacher Report. Follow him on Twitter: @ZachBuckleyNBA.
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