Golden State Warriors: 5 Goals for the Final 6 Weeks of the Season
The Golden State Warriors are only six weeks away from their first finish line of the 2017-18 season.
And despite rolling along at a 62-plus-win clip, their to-do list looks lengthy for this time of year.
So many factors play into that. For starters, sustained excellence can drain internal fuel and heighten external expectations. The Bay Area has seen some of both already, leading to tasks of the roster-building and statistical varities remaining.
Additionally, Golden State has been unable to separate from a challenger built specifically to conquer it. That has left the Warriors potentially needing an end-of-season charge to secure something it has typically sewn up well in advance.
Increase Shooting Depth
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When identifying any of Golden State's flaws, nit-picking becomes a necessity. For instance, we're saying a concern exists within an offense ranked first in scoring, efficiency, assists and three-point shooting.
The quality of this attack is overwhelming, but the quantity counts at least as a small worry. Beyond the net-shredding trio of Stephen Curry, Klay Thompson and Kevin Durant, there aren't many three-point threats on the roster. Nick Young and Omri Casspi are both ignitable marksmen, but neither has the most consistent role.
When the focus narrows to the Warriors' top eight in average minutes, only the three aforementioned All-Stars stand as viable shooting options.
Draymond Green's three-point percentage hasn't been this low since his rookie year (30.1). Before fracturing his wrist, Patrick McCaw was shooting more than eight percentage points worse than last season (25.0). Andre Iguodala is setting a host of career lows on the offensive end, including points (5.5), three-point percentage (23.8), true shooting percentage (51.3) and player efficiency rating (10.4).
"If [Iguodala] remains this Tony Allen version of himself, defenses will play off him and make the Warriors go four-on-five," Will Gottlieb wrote for Bleacher Report. "He won't be able to hold his own in the playoffs, and Golden State will be forced to scramble to find a fifth piece of the puzzle at an inopportune time."
The simplest fix for this problem would be the underperforming players returning to their normal levels. Even with the season's end fast approaching, that potential solution remains in play.
But if the Warriors want to hedge their bets, they might consider adding a player via G League call-up or the buyout market. They'd have to open a roster spot first, but it could be worth it to fix one of their few on-court shortcomings.
Have Two 50/40/90 Snipers
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As far as shooting efficiency goes, the famed 50/40/90 club is like the difficulty-all-the-way-down, sliders-all-the-way-up extreme version. Only seven players count themselves as official members, and two are on this roster—Curry and Durant.
Each not only has a chance to join Steve Nash (four times) and Larry Bird (twice) as the lone repeat performers, but Curry and Durant could also become the first teammate pair to clear the 50/40/90 threshold in the same season.
Curry needs a tiny boost from the field (49.4 percent), but he has ample breathing room from three (42.1) and the stripe (91.8). Durant's field goals (52.1) and triples (42.7) are where they need to be, he just has to catch fire from the three-throw line (88.5). It's incredible they're even within striking distance, when they're splitting the role of No. 1 option and both supplying 26-plus points per night.
But it would be historic if they could clear the bar together.
"That level of efficiency, it'd be amazing," Durant told Anthony Slater, then with the Bay Area News Group, last season.
There was some early hope Thompson could make this a 50/40/90 trio, but that looks out of reach now. He's only hitting one of the three marks (44.5 from three), and his free-throw conversion rate probably has too much ground to make up (83.1).
Finish with a Top-Three Defense
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Since Steve Kerr grabbed the coaching reins in 2014, the Dubs have finished first, fourth and second in defensive efficiency. Their worst defensive rating of the last three seasons was 101.1, or almost identical to the Boston Celtics' league-leading mark of 101.0.
Golden State's stopping stats, then, look out of character. It's down to fifth in efficiency, and the 103.5 defensive rating is the highest the Warriors have posted since 2011-12—the last time they missed the playoffs.
To be clear, this remains a ferocious defense. No team averages more blocks (7.9). Only one collects more defensive rebounds (35.7), and just two surrender lower field-goal percentages (44.1). This assemblage of length, athleticism, intelligence and versatility is unlike any other; and when this defense clicks, the Dubs are basically unbeatable since they're historically proficient on offense.
But they haven't always summoned their best. When they closed January and opened February with three losses in four games, they gave up 118.3 points per game and allowed 48.1 percent shooting.
"It directly correlates to focus," Green said amid that stretch, per NBC Bay Area's Monte Poole. "And it's that time of year where focus is a little hard to come by."
The Warriors should be refreshed on this side of the All-Star break. Now, they can focus on finding the defensive consistency required to raise a third championship banner in four seasons. They've had elite stretches this season (first in November, second in December), but this is when they need to start putting a steady climb together.
Have Multiple Award Finalists
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For being the Association's premier outfit last season, the Dubs didn't make much of a dent in the year-end award voting. Green finally captured Defensive Player of the Year honors, and Iguodala took silver in Sixth Man of the Year, but that was it for Golden State among the top-three finishers in each player award.
This year might not be different. The Dubs weren't represented on B/R's midseason awards, and it's not like anyone stood out as a glaring omission.
But even if they're shut out of the actual selections, they need multiple players named as a top-three finalist. The MVP arguments for Durant and Curry are strong, even if some might say they cancel each other out. And Durant has made a compelling DPOY case for those impressed by counting categories (third in total blocks) and amazing eye-test results.
"[Durant] is a 3 who can slide up to the 1 as easily as he can slide down to the 5," Jonathan Tjarks wrote for The Ringer. "He can bang with the biggest players, contest the shots of the longest and stay in front of the fastest. Even in a league full of some of the best athletes in the world, Durant has unique physical gifts. ... One of the most unguardable players in the NBA might also be its most gifted defender."
It also feels foolish to dismiss the possibility of Green making a late charge to defend his throne. Golden State is a better defensive team with him (102.7 rating) than without (104.8), he's shaving 3.2 percentage points off his opponents' field-goal averages.
If the Warriors wind up with a finalist for MVP and DPOY—or two for both—it likely means those players and this team will have found an extra gear for this season's final stretch.
Earn West's No. 1 Seed, NBA's Best Record
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What had been a forgone conclusion could now come down to a photo finish. With the Warriors being a half-step off their normal pace and the Houston Rockets having their best season ever, control of this conference—and possibly the league at large—could be up for grabs into the campaign's final week.
Houston has the lead but only by the smallest of margins. Both clubs have tallied 46 wins, but the Rockets have suffered one fewer loss (13 to 14). In addition, Houston holds the first potential tiebreaker by virtue of taking the regular-season series two games to one.
Golden State, though, emerged from the All-Star break with an easier slate ahead of it.
"Going forward, the Warriors have an easier schedule than the Rockets," John Schuhmann wrote for NBA.com. "The champs will play only 14 of their final 24 games against teams that currently have winning records. The Rockets play 18 of their final 25 games, including 13 of their next 14, against that group."
To be fair, it doesn't seem to matter who's on the other side of Houston's matchups lately. The Rockets have reeled off 12 triumphs in a row, besting the Warriors' longest winning streak by at least one. Houston also boasts the top winning percentage (.833) and net efficiency rating (plus-9.5) of 2018, and it has gone a ridiculous 30-1 when James Harden, Chris Paul and Clint Capela all play.
Does that mean the Warriors aren't the NBA's top team anymore? Not necessarily. Golden State wears the crown until it gets ripped off in the playoffs, and it's hard to imagine the Warriors' superpowers are dependent on having home-court advantage.
At the same time, there are actual, intelligent conversations taking place about Golden State's rank in the hoops hierarchy. And while they wouldn't be silenced by the Warriors finishing a game or two ahead of the Rockets, there could be a psychological impact—uplifting for the Dubs, dispiriting for everyone else—to Golden State taking its normal position atop the standings.
Unless otherwise indicated, all stats are from Basketball Reference or NBA.com.
Zach Buckley covers the NBA for Bleacher Report. Follow him on Twitter: @ZachBuckleyNBA.
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