Re-Evaluating Warriors' Biggest Championship Threats
The Golden State Warriors have reached the first-quarter mark of the 2017-18 season without the NBA's best record in hand.
But there's no doubting their continued position atop the basketball world. The in-prime star power alone says as much, and the advanced stat sheet wholeheartedly agrees. That's why their biggest championship threats reside in or directly around them, be it complacency, catastrophe or an untimely rash of car troubles.
Those elements are impossible to evaluate, though, so we've focused on the external championship threats facing the Warriors. That's a loosely applied term, since maybe a handful of teams could win a seven-game series with Golden State—and most would require a best-case scenario to do so—but we have plotted all the potential obstacles on the path to a title defense.
Some are just potential threats, incapable of competing in their current form but perhaps problematic down the line. Then, there are the peripheral threats, or those clinging to the slightest of upset chances. And finally, we have the full-fledged threats, which have been analyzed and ranked based on current and past track records to determine the Dubs' most difficult postseason matchups.
Potential Threats
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Milwaukee Bucks (10-9)
Taking out Golden State would require length, versatility and superstar talent. The Bucks can check each of those three boxes. Giannis Antetokounmpo is fast-tracking his way to the NBA throne, and when this lineup is fully healthy, it features plenty of lanky athletes who do multiple things.
But the Bucks are a mess right now. They would already have two four-game losing streaks on their record if not for an overtime win over the Phoenix Suns. They don't have a top-10 offense or a top-15 defense. And outside of Giannis, there isn't a consistent star on the active roster.
New Orleans Pelicans (11-9)
Today's twin towers model might produce this season's fantasy MVP. Both all-world bigs are in the running. Between Anthony Davis and DeMarcus Cousins, that's a nightly supply of 51.5 points, 23.9 rebounds, 8.2 assists, 3.4 blocks, 3.0 triples and 2.9 steals. With throwback size and modern skills, New Orleans' prodigious pair just might be small ball's kryptonite.
But it takes more than a terrific twosome to topple the defending champs. And the Pellies appear dangerously thin. Without any wing upgrades, New Orleans will try to use Rajon Rondo, Jrue Holiday and E'Twaun Moore to combat Stephen Curry, Klay Thompson and Kevin Durant. Just imagine the astronomical point spread those sides would see in a three-on-three tilt.
Oklahoma City Thunder (8-11)
OKC can be so much more than three All-Star names penned on the same paper. With the Association's second-best defense and an offensive trio pumping out 61.9 points per game, the outline of a two-way terror is evident. And the Warriors know that better than anyone, since they malfunctioned at both ends and ate a season-worst 17-point loss in their only head-to-head meeting.
But it's hard to paint the Thunder as title threats when the current playoff picture doesn't even include them. Their big three has yet to mesh, their supporting cast has lacked consistent support and their clutch play is best defined as gross incompetence (minus-42.2 net rating).
Peripheral Threats
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Minnesota Timberwolves (12-9)
This has the makings of a club no one wants to see come playoff time. In-prime All-Star Jimmy Butler is only the third-leading scorer, trailing rapid risers Karl-Anthony Towns and Andrew Wiggins. While there are some depth concerns, there's also one of the league's better seven- or eight-man rotations in place.
But the Wolves won't seriously threaten anyone until they fix their fractured defense. Offseason moves for Butler and Taj Gibson haven't been the miracle cure. Minnesota still sits 24th in defensive efficiency, only two spots up from where it finished last season. Until that changes, the Wolves won't have the balance to hold court with the elite.
Philadelphia 76ers (11-8)
Is this year one of the post-process or just the funnest part of the process to date? Either way, it's bearing witness to the rise of the NBA's next great young duo: Ben Simmons and Joel Embiid, who average more than 40 points and 20 rebounds per game combined. With top-shelf shooters around them, this offense can be overwhelming, as evidenced by a 47-point first quarter against Golden State earlier this month.
The Sixers fight inconsistency issues both ways, though, which should be expected for a team this young and probably ahead of schedule. There's also no telling what, if any, impact top pick Markelle Fultz can make whenever he returns from a nagging shoulder ailment. Philly is for sure worth watching, but a year or two away from terrifying.
Portland Trail Blazers (13-8)
What exactly are the Blazers? A defensive powerhouse with an offense that's ready to pop, or a regressing offense with a defense that's not as good as the numbers suggest? The answer to that question reveals how much of a threat Portland presents.
There's still reason to be skeptical about this dramatic defensive turnaround (21st last season, third now). Portland has only faced two of the league's top six attacks and hasn't dominated from game to game. And since it's down 10 spots in offensive efficiency (21st from 11th), its stoppers have a slimmer margin for error.
Washington Wizards (11-9)
Stop me if you've heard this before—Washington's lack of depth is a problem. The full-strength first five can hang with almost any lineup, and Kelly Oubre Jr. has shined as both a spot starter and a second-team focal point. But the backup backcourt is a disaster, and Ian Mahinmi continues to look like an overpaid shell of his former self.
History says the Wizards will win more than they lose, but their formula has repeatedly fallen flat during the playoffs. And franchise centerpiece John Wall is sitting due to discomfort and inflammation in his surgically repaired left knee. Washington shouldn't be written off, but there's nothing to suggest it's more threatening than usual.
6. Detroit Pistons
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Record: 13-6
Offensive Rating: 106.2 (8); Defensive Rating: 104.0 (14); Net Rating: +2.2 (11)
It's possible the Detroit Pistons are masters of deception and will eventually prove they don't deserve a mention alongside full-fledged contenders. They aren't elite on either end of the court, and they still feature a lot of the same players who stumbled to last season's 37-45 record.
Then again, evidence is mounting that the Motor City might be for real. It'd be foolish to completely dismiss the Pistons' pair of road wins over the Warriors and Boston Celtics by 18 points combined. And even if a couple guys are enjoying career starts, no one seems to be playing above his abilities.
"Consistency will determine Detroit's fate," Yahoo Sports' Chris Mannix wrote, "but if March looks like November, Detroit will be a team no one wants to face in the spring."
Andre Drummond is leading the league in rebounding while more than tripling his previous high in assists and enjoying a 23 percent jump from the free-throw line. Tobias Harris doesn't look overextended as a go-to scorer and is crushing his career-highs in three-point volume and efficiency. Reggie Jackson is the pick-and-roll wizard he was before the knee injury. Avery Bradley leads by example with defense and intensity.
Their success feels sustainable. They keep opponents off the three-point and free-throw lines. They splash their own triples at an elite rate. They take care of the basketball and typically win the battle of the boards. Their reserves have dominated (fourth in efficiency), especially on defense (first).
Detroit doesn't make many of the mistakes Golden State is so good at exploiting. The Pistons might not be on the Warriors' level or even in the next tier, but they look like a genuine shadow contender if everything breaks right.
5. Toronto Raptors
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Record: 12-7
Offensive Rating: 109.9 (3); Defensive Rating: 102.5 (9); Net Rating: +7.4 (3)
The Toronto Raptors have redirected without reshuffling, modernizing their offense and potentially raising their playoff ceiling in the process.
While still guided by the All-Star backcourt of Kyle Lowry and DeMar DeRozan, the Raptors have dialed back their mid-range work and curtailed their pick-and-roll reliance. That's trimmed into the guards' production but has made the overall attack more potent and less predictable.
"Right now we are doing something that, if you're a betting man, you're betting it'll translate in the playoffs," Raptors coach Dwane Casey said, per Tim Bontemps of the Washington Post. "That's what we're betting."
So far, it seems like a smart wager.
Toronto has moved out of the dinosaur age and into a contemporary system crafted around speed, spacing and movement. The Raptors have climbed the ladder in pace (22nd to 14th), assist percentage (30th to 17th) and three-point makes (21st to 11th) while falling back in mid-range shots (12th to 26th) and isolation frequency (sixth to 19th).
The Serge Ibaka-Jonas Valanciunas frontcourt isn't working, but most slower frontcourts get skewered by the Warriors, anyway. Toronto's bench—the only reserves more efficient than Golden State's—could be critical in keeping up with the champs.
4. San Antonio Spurs
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Record: 13-7
Offensive Rating: 104.6 (14); Defensive Rating: 101.1 (5); Net Rating: +3.6 (6)
Kawhi Leonard hasn't logged a second this season due to quadriceps tendinopathy, but the two-way swingman could soon be a sight for sore eyes among the San Antonio Spurs faithful. Tony Parker, who recently made his own return, told reporters that Leonard might be "a couple of weeks away."
But Spurs skipper Gregg Popovich cautions everyone against taking Parker's assessment at face value.
"Is that Dr. Parker?" Popovich asked, per ESPN.com's Michael C. Wright. "I'm probably not going to consult Tony on when Kawhi is going to come back."
Long story short, we know nothing about Leonard's short-term future or season outlook. And that should make the Spurs impossible to read, except for the fact Popovich again has them competing near the top of the Western Conference.
San Antonio's full-strength defense is a problem for Golden State, and this offense proved last season it can play at a top-10 level with Leonard as the focal point. The ceiling might reach even higher now that LaMarcus Aldridge looks as comfortable as he's been in the Alamo City and Rudy Gay is settling in as a second-team spark.
The Spurs have made their size matter against the Warriors before, and San Antonio has taken some steps to increase its overall athleticism. Golden State would still have a cushion in this matchup, but if it gets careless, San Antonio could use the turnovers to get easy buckets and—more importantly—set up its stingy half-court defense.
3. Boston Celtics
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Record: 18-4
Offensive Rating: 104.5 (16); Defensive Rating: 98.3 (1); Net Rating: +6.2 (4)
The first quarter of this campaign swears up and down the Boston Celtics should be ranked higher.
Even without Gordon Hayward, Boston has won more games and played better defense than anyone. Kyrie Irving hasn't missed a beat since leaving LeBron James and the Cleveland Cavaliers. Jaylen Brown and Jayson Tatum have toyed with the NBA spotlight and NBA defenders. Al Horford has again auditioned for best glue guy in the business.
The Celtics set this season's high mark for a winning streak at 16 games. Victory No. 14 in that stretch was a four-point win over the Warriors on national television. And while Golden State once led that contest by 17 points and attempted half as many free throws, the game also highlighted the challenges Boston presents.
"The Warriors were rushing...because the Celtics were forcing them to," Bontemps wrote. "The intensity with which the Celtics played, and the physicality that went with it, had an impact on Golden State as the game wore on, and allowed Boston to put the ball in Kyrie Irving's hands down the stretch to carry the Celtics home."
Boston might be the best-coached team in basketball, and it shows in the discipline, effort and attention to detail. The Celtics have length and athleticism where they need it, too much youth to fear the Dubs and an All-Star who has proven he can close at the highest level against Golden State.
But the Hayward-less Shamrocks are light on star power and proven offensive hubs. Plus, their inexperience would be tricky to mask over four best-of-seven series. If Boston took any advantages into the matchup, they would easily be outnumbered by Golden State's.
2. Cleveland Cavaliers
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Record: 14-7
Offensive Rating: 109.8 (4); Defensive Rating: 107.7 (26); Net Rating: +2.1 (12)
The Cleveland Cavaliers are missing their top two point guards, one of whom hasn't played this season (Isaiah Thomas) and another who might not want to play again (Derrick Rose), per ESPN's Adrian Wojnarowski. They don't always bother defending, and even when they do, they have sieves in need of hiding. Inconsistency plagues everyone behind the No. 1 option.
And none of that really matters since the Cavaliers employ the basketball cyborg known as LeBron James.
"It's worth taking a moment to reflect on just how unbelievable it is for LeBron, just a little over a month away from his 33rd birthday, to still be far and away the best player in the game," NBA.com's Sekou Smith wrote. "You can wonder how long he'll be able to keep up this pace or stop debating about it and just appreciate the unprecedented nature of what he's doing."
James has defied logic before, but his 2017-18 performance has reached ridiculousness.
In the 15th season of a Hall of Fame career, he's found a new high mark for his field-goal (57.9) and three-point (42.0) percentages. He's one of only two players averaging at least eight rebounds and eight assists—something he'd only done once previously—and despite having the third-heaviest workload (37.0 minutes), he's the NBA's leader in fourth-quarter points (9.6, on 57.3 percent shooting).
Unbelievable as it sounds, this might be James at his best. That's enough to worry anyone—Warriors included—in a head-to-head clash. But even with the King, Cleveland has a few too many flaws to be seen as Golden State's primary championship challenger.
1. Houston Rockets
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Record: 16-4
Offensive Rating: 112.2 (2); Defensive Rating: 101.7 (8); Net Rating: +10.5 (2)
The Houston Rockets are closer than anyone to becoming the Warriors' statistical peer.
Their average outing is almost identical—a 10.5-point win for Golden State, a 10.3-point triumph for Houston. The Warriors are the Association's only team with top-five efficiency marks on offense (first) and defense (fifth). The Rockets are the only other inside the top eight of both.
What makes Houston unique, though, is it's still in the growth process. Ball-dominant newcomer Chris Paul has only made six appearances for the Rockets. Houston has two other external acquisitions clearing 26 minutes a night. Golden State's top-seven rotation, on the other hand, is completely comprised of incumbents.
"We're in a good place right now, but we can be even better," James Harden said, per Jonathan Feigen of the Houston Chronicle. "That's the scary part. We're still basically fairly new. ... We can be a lot better on both ends."
Harden might be the MVP front-runner. He has a comfortable lead in the scoring race and is ahead of his career conversion rates from all three levels. Then there's point-god Paul, who is somehow simultaneously getting acclimated and averaging 14.0 assists against 1.5 turnovers per 36 minutes.
The Trevor Ariza-P.J. Tucker-Luc Mbah a Moute trio looks like it was built specifically to stop the Death Lineup. And it's even better in practice than it sounded in theory (their 96.3 defensive rating together would easily lead the league). Clint Capela has never been more productive or efficient. Eric Gordon and Ryan Anderson can drill threes at a dizzying rate. The list of strengths runs deeper than any other challenger's.
Does that put Houston on Golden State's level? There's no way to answer in the affirmative based on what we know about the Warriors and don't know about this Rockets team. But at the 20-game mark, Houston sits closer than anyone.
Unless otherwise indicated, all stats are from Basketball Reference or NBA.com.
Zach Buckley covers the NBA for Bleacher Report. Follow him on Twitter: @ZachBuckleyNBA.
