What Will the Oakland Raiders Look Like in 3 Years?
As people, we always want to know what's next? How far can you see into the future? We'll take a look at a three-year projection on the Oakland Raiders. What will this team look like for 2020 season?
There's one change you can take to the bank—a move to Las Vegas. The relocation doesn't excite Oakland natives, but it's something to factor into free agency. Keep in mind Nevada is a tax-free state. Despite all the talk about passion, love for the game and networking, money talks—loudly.
As far as personnel goes, production and results ultimately dictate transactions, firings and new hires. Starting at the top, owner Mark Davis exercised a lot of patience with general manager Reggie McKenzie, who started his tenure with an 18-46 record through four seasons before agreeing to a contract extension.
Davis' patience has resonated down the chain of command. McKenzie often works in slow motion when it comes to replacing personnel on the field. Fans threw their hands in the air in sarcastic joy when the Raiders general manager decided to address an inexperienced linebacker position seven weeks into the season.
Head coach Jack Del Rio has shown the same methodical approach with an underachieving defensive coordinator and a secondary with disposable starting players.
As a whole, no one could accuse the Raiders of moving too hastily, it's quite the opposite. Temper your expectations when it comes to drastic transformations, but three years will bring about changes.
Look into the silver and black crystal ball. What's up ahead for the Raiders?
Reggie McKenzie, Jack Del Rio Hold Positions Through New Contracts
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In the past year, Davis extended McKenzie's contract. Then, the Raiders executive offered Del Rio a new deal. Both will likely maintain their positions through their extensions.
Amid a disappointing 4-5 start to the 2017 season, the fanbase doesn't want to hear about another three years with the current executive-head coach tandem. However, the Raiders exceeded expectations in 2016, which gives McKenzie and Del Rio more leeway going forward.
McKenzie won Executive of the Year for the previous campaign that resulted in a 12-4 finish. Remember, he's more than patient with his big-picture decisions. With that mentality, Del Rio's seat won't heat up unless the players tune him out or the team misses the playoffs in consecutive seasons.
Del Rio uplifted the team's culture and ended a 14-year playoff drought, which buys him extra time. Head coaches will often fire coordinators to save their jobs when general managers reach for the eject button on the staff.
Todd Downing Survives, Ken Norton Jr. Dismissed
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The Raiders opted not to re-sign former offensive coordinator Bill Musgrave as his two-year contract expired and promoted quarterbacks coach Todd Downing to the position.
As a rookie play-caller, Downing has experienced rough times. The Raiders' offensive unit explodes during some weeks but struggles to move the ball in other outings. It's the classic lost-identity offense.
It's too early to judge Downing's longevity as a coordinator. However, Del Rio's defense has underperformed for 2.5 seasons under Ken Norton Jr., and he's probably going to finish his third season with the team.
At the very least, you can see moments when Downing's game plan clicks and the offense scores enough to carry a lackluster defense. Expect Del Rio to show patience with the inexperienced play-caller due to the bright spots.
On the other hand, Oakland has fielded a 20th-ranked defense or worse in points and yards allowed every year under Norton. Barring improvements through the second half of the season, the Raiders will likely turn to a new defensive coordinator in 2018.
As the assistant head coach - defense, John Pagano would take over play-calling duties. Unlike Norton, who previously served as a linebackers coach, Del Rio should allow an experienced coordinator free range in molding the defense.
Pagano spent five seasons as a defensive coordinator for the Los Angeles Chargers. He doesn't need anyone holding his hand through game planning or game-day adjustments.
Khalil Mack Continues to Wreak Havoc in Silver and Black
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McKenzie made it clear he plans to keep edge-rusher Khalil Mack in a silver and black jersey.
When asked about signing the reigning Defensive Player of the Year to a new deal in the offseason, the Raiders executive provided a short but definitive answer, per the team's official website:
"Yes, I do. Hopefully, his agent feels the same way."
Expect McKenzie to pay top dollar for the best player on his defense and one of the best in the league. It's all up to Mack to accept the offer. Unless he's unhappy with the team's direction, it's fair to pencil No. 52 on the Raiders depth chart for years to come.
The decision to re-sign Mack comes with some repercussions. His contract value will compare to Kansas City Chiefs edge-rusher Justin Houston's $101 million deal or Denver Broncos pass-rusher Von Miller's $114 million contract, per Spotrac. The Raiders already signed quarterback Derek Carr to a $125 million pact.
With huge contracts on the payroll, it will become increasingly important for McKenzie to pass on high-priced free agents and hit on draft picks.
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McKenzie Drafts Another Edge-Rusher to Complement Khalil Mack
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Linebacker Bruce Irvin provides support in areas that don't show up in the box score. Once he arrived in Oakland, players respected his voice in the locker room as a former Super Bowl champion with the Seattle Seahawks. The sixth-year pro also adds bulk to the run defense.
In the previous season, Irvin flashed as a secondary pass-rusher with seven sacks. He accumulated five of the seven after the Week 10 bye in 2016.
Right now, the veteran linebacker has 2.5 quarterback takedowns. Another five-sack finish would put him just about on par with the previous year's total.
At 32 years old, Irvin will hit the 2020 free-agent market. It's in McKenzie's best interest to draft his replacement on the edge before the contract expires. A strong pass rush combined with a talented secondary would pull the Raiders defense out of the gutter.
Oakland needs another young playmaker opposite Mack to balance and strengthen the defense's pocket pressure. If Irvin re-signs on a short-term deal in good condition, the coaching staff can use his experience and versatility at inside linebacker.
Gareon Conley, Obi Melifonwu, Karl Joseph Form Effective Trio in the Secondary
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Oakland officially shut down cornerback Gareon Conley for the 2017 season with a shin injury. Despite only playing 92 snaps, he showed promise when nearly intercepting New York Jets quarterback Josh McCown's pass in his first game.
Unfortunately, complications with Conley's shin injury will delay his development. Nonetheless, Oakland's secondary should improve over the next three years.
Conley, defensive back Obi Melifonwu and safety Karl Joseph will bring speed as well as athleticism to a pass defense that struggles against quick-twitch receivers. The trio's development falls on the coordinator to put these potential playmakers in the right spots to succeed.
Norton has struggled to field a viable pass defense during his tenure. Based on the projection above, Pagano may have a shot at significantly improving the secondary with young talent.
Amari Cooper Establishes Himself as a No. 1 Receiving Option
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The next four seasons will shed light on Amari Cooper as a No. 1 or No. 2 wideout in this league. Can Carr target his AC/DC partner with the game on the line similar to Michael Crabtree?
Right now, Cooper is too inconsistent with securing the football. Yet, Carr continues to show faith in the 23-year-old, which bodes well for his confidence levels going forward. The Raiders signal-caller has targeted the 2015 No. 4 overall pick 77 times—22 more than tight end Jared Cook and Crabtree.
Oakland will likely exercise the fifth-year option on Cooper's contract, which keeps him under team control through the 2019 season. Assuming he cuts down on drops, the Alabama product would start the 2020 campaign with a new deal.
At 32 years old, Crabtree will hit the free-agent market in 2020. For the most part, the veteran wideout has been healthy throughout his career. He's racked up 23 touchdowns as a Raider and oftentimes pulls through as the clutch receiver with the game on the line—see Week 7 against the Kansas City Chiefs.
Crabtree hasn't shown signs of slowing down. He could re-sign on a short-term deal, but Cooper has the tools to flash that clutch gene as a reliable pass-catcher. It's difficult to ignore the drop issues for two seasons, but his 2016 campaign shows he's able to minimize the flaw in his game.
Cooper's growing rapport with Carr over the next few years should further establish AC/DC as a dynamic quarterback-receiver duo.
An Every-Down Running Back Takes over the Backfield
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It's completely against McKenzie's draft philosophy, but he's going to have the opportunity to select an every-down running back in an early round of an upcoming draft class.
In 2020, Beast Mode will wear his Raiders jersey off the field. Long before he retires, the Raiders must find a lead running back.
Despite their contributions, Jalen Richard and DeAndre Washington have not taken full advantage of the featured ball-carrier role without Latavius Murray or Marshawn Lynch in action.
Teams have circled the wagons on drafting high at running back, and it's worked out for the Los Angeles Rams, Dallas Cowboys and Jacksonville Jaguars.
McKenzie must adapt to the times and ease the pressure on Carr. Assuming Wisconsin freshman tailback Jonathan Taylor and Oklahoma State sophomore ball-carrier Justice Hill continue to develop as 1,000-yard rushers, they'll come off the board in the first or second rounds in the next few years.
It took Murray two seasons to earn a starting spot, partially due to an ankle injury during his rookie season. McKenzie should attempt to draft an immediate impact player at the position to elevate the offense.
The game plan would feed the featured ball-carrier 15-20 carries per contest, with Richard and Washington handling the leftovers plus receiving duties out of the backfield.
Incoming 2018 prospects such Penn State's Saquon Barkley and Oregon's Royce Freeman will show why it's important to invest premium draft capital in an all-around running back.
Giorgio Tavecchio Takes over for a Raider Icon
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Say goodbye to an all-time Raider kicker Sebastian Janikowski and hello to his replacement Giorgio Tavecchio. McKenzie commented on whether he plans on activating the 39-year-old off injured reserve this year in his midseason interview:
"You don't have to rush him back, that's for sure. Giorgio's done a great job. He's really stepped up to the plate and has been kicking well. The need to bring another guy in here is not there, but Seabass is moving forward with his progress and I think he will be ready to roll here shortly if needed."
McKenzie sounds like he's ready to turn the reins over to the 27-year-old kicker, who's earning $465,000 in 2017. He's going to become an exclusive rights free agent in the offseason, which means he has fewer than two accrued seasons and may only sign with the Raiders unless the team doesn't offer him a minimum qualifying offer.
Oakland will have to find ways to save money with two players cashing in more than $100 million. Barring injury, there's no logical reason to keep Janikowski around past the 2017 season on a new deal.
Janikowski deserves the praise for sticking around during the down years, but it's still a business. McKenzie must balance a checkbook and cut costs wherever necessary.
Fortunately, Tavecchio has converted on three out of four field-goal attempts from 50 or more yards out. He's shown accuracy and a strong enough leg to take over for Janikowski, who's played the most games (268) as a Raider.
All Reggie McKenzie midseason interview comments provided by Raiders.com.
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