2018 NBA Free Agents Who Will Shape Summer of 2017
The long view is always best, so we have to look all the way to 2018 to get the full picture of what might happen in NBA free agency this summer.
We've watched several high-profile players ditch their teams for nothing, and the exits of guys like Kevin Durant and Al Horford in recent years put organizations around the league on notice: Get your ducks in a row ahead of schedule, or lose your leverage.
You can't cross bridges when you come to them anymore. If you've got a star nearing free agency, you have to support him now or look to cut bait before the whole world knows he's leaving.
If you've got an extension-eligible talent worth max money, you'd better convince him to sign. Otherwise, 29 other teams know you've lost control of your franchise's fate.
In addition, if you think you've got a shot at one of those soon-to-exit stars, you'd better consolidate young assets or move them to make yourself more attractive—whichever play fits that star's timeline and preferences best.
Here are the big names slated for 2018 free agency who are already affecting this summer's market—forcing tough decisions on their teams and altering plans around the league.
Russell Westbrook, Oklahoma City Thunder
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If Russell Westbrook doesn't sign the five-year extension for which he's eligible this summer, everything about the Oklahoma City Thunder's future changes.
Sure, it's possible Westbrook will hit unrestricted free agency in 2018 and ink a new deal that keeps him in Oklahoma City at that point. But with an organizational history that includes trading both James Harden and Serge Ibaka before free agency and the more recently painful loss of Kevin Durant for nothing, does anyone really think the Thunder will wait around for Russ to make a decision?
General manager Sam Presti is notoriously proactive. The waiting game isn't one he likes to play.
Westbrook quickly re-upping on an extension this summer would eliminate one of the league's biggest looming uncertainties, bringing clarity to the Thunder's plans and taking a superstar off the radar of desirous teams with cap space.
Without a Westbrook extension in place, OKC would likely look to trade its best player, according to Tim Bontemps of the Washington Post. That could start an avalanche of moves which might include letting free-agent Andre Roberson walk, pursuing an Enes Kanter trade and the initiation of a full rebuild.
The ripple effects of OKC's failure to extend Westbrook would be huge.
Imagine the news cycle spinning out of control this July if the entire league knows the (likely) reigning MVP is on the market...
Paul George, Indiana Pacers
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The prep work for landing a star in free agency can take years, and if the Los Angeles Lakers are serious about consummating perhaps the most rumored union in the league, they'll have to start laying the groundwork for Paul George's 2018 arrival right now.
A league executive told B/R's Eric Pincus the Lakers need another star to entice PG next summer, which makes sense. Coming home (George is from Southern California) has plenty of appeal, but familiar surroundings might not be enough if the roster looks lottery-bound.
"Perhaps the answer is in the draft and player development," Pincus explained, "but the Lakers may need to accelerate the process by bringing in additional help through free agency and trades. And time is of the essence."
That means L.A. could try to shed the bad contracts it gave to Timofey Mozgov and Luol Deng last summer. Good luck on that one, fellas.
More realistically, the Lakers could dangle young assets and picks if another big name becomes available. I'm not saying this ties to Westbrook potentially becoming available, but I'm also not not saying it.
Meanwhile, the Indiana Pacers' new chief decision-maker, Kevin Pritchard, must do what he can to surround George with more talent this summer...or move him before the risk of losing an All-Star for nothing intensifies.
LeBron James, Cleveland Cavaliers
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We have to lean into the realm of speculation a little harder here, but there are a few things we can rely on with some certainty when it comes to LeBron James and free agency.
First, we know he'll be a free agent in 2018 because that's his first opportunity to decline the player option on the three-year deal he signed this past summer. Turning down the nearly $36 million attached to that 2018-19 season might sound like a tough call, but it won't be for James.
His options at that point will include another short-term pact with an opt-out clause like he's signed the last few offseasons or a five-year deal worth as much as $210 million under the renegotiated CBA.
CBS Sports' Matt Moore thinks that's the way James will go, locking into a megadeal that'll keep him maxed out through age 38.
Then again, The Ringer's Kevin O'Connor is floating some LBJ-to-L.A. talk that injects some intrigue.
If James walks away from the 2017 Finals convinced his Cleveland Cavaliers can't win a title as currently composed (how could he reach any other conclusion?), get ready for either a) increased rumblings of his leaving a year from now, or b) a push for a roster shakeup to get him more help.
That could mean Cleveland's activity in this summer's free agency ramps up, though it would help if GM David Griffin had his own contract in place to oversee the proceedings. As of now, he's set to be a free agent, too.
Kevin Durant, Golden State Warriors
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Kevin Durant is technically under contract through next season, which means he's fair game to include here.
The entire world knows he'll opt out this summer to re-sign with the Warriors—probably for less than the max, which will allow Golden State to retain its entire core. Most likely, he'll ink another two-year deal with an opt-out following the 2017-18 season, re-entering free agency and then agreeing on a multi-year max.
So what does Durant's telegraphed intention to stick with the Dubs affect in this summer's free agency?
Pretty much everything.
KD sticking around and allowing the Warriors to maintain the status quo is a signal to the other 29 teams that trying to build a contender anytime before the year 2020 or so is a fool's errand.
It's entirely possible we see clubs you'd typically consider on the cusp of contention forgoing big swings and avoiding the temptation to construct their own superteams. Because what would be the point?
There will still be player movement over the summer of 2017, but with KD allowing the Warriors to keep their rotation together, chances are the shuffling will be more about tearing down than building up.
Maybe that means the San Antonio Spurs stay in a holding pattern for a year before adding talent around Kawhi Leonard in 2018—or later. Maybe it means the Boston Celtics never trade any of their young assets. Maybe it forces the Cavs, perhaps the only team with a realistic shot at challenging the Dubs, to be the lone desperate buyer in a seller's market.
Whatever the fallout, Durant's decision to stick around through this summer and next will impact every team's long-term plans.
DeAndre Jordan, LA Clippers
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It seems like the lock-in emoji fest of 2015 happened just yesterday, but DeAndre Jordan can opt out of the deal he (eventually) signed with the Los Angeles Clippers next summer.
If there's any fire to the smoke of Chris Paul joining up with the Spurs, and if Blake Griffin decides he's had it with Los Angeles, you'd better believe the Clippers would consider trading Jordan before he can hit unrestricted free agency in 2018.
In fact, you might even reverse those two factors.
If the Clips expect Jordan to walk in a year, it might inform their thinking on both Paul and Griffin.
It's hard to know which way a possible Jordan opt-out and exit would cut, though. Perhaps it'd make the Clippers more willing to retain CP3 and Griffin if they knew there'd be a Jordan-sized chunk of cap space available next summer. Then again, there's a chance L.A. isn't keen on the idea of building around an aging and injured Paul-Griffin core if the younger and more durable DJ won't be around to stabilize it.
Either way, Jordan, the generally unheralded member of the Clippers Big Three (though that term now feels patronizing in light of the real superteams controlling the league), is going to impact his team's decisions a full year ahead of his own free agency.
DeMarcus Cousins, New Orleans Pelicans
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The New Orleans Pelicans have been in the business of misguided, short-term decision-making for a while now, so the urgency they forced on themselves by trading for DeMarcus Cousins a year ahead of his 2018 free agency should feel familiar.
That's not to say New Orleans made a mistake in landing Boogie. It was an opportunistic deal, and the Pels snagged a star at a bargain rate.
But for an organization that has habitually mortgaged future assets in order to construct a present contender around Anthony Davis (while smarter clubs around the league built more deliberately around their young cornerstones), New Orleans has little choice but to get after it in 2017 free agency.
If it doesn't improve the roster, Cousins might leave for nothing—which could increase the chances of Davis angling for a trade down the line.
New Orleans has few young assets, no first-rounder in this year's draft and no incoming future picks from other teams. Bad deals for Omer Asik, E'Twaun Moore and Solomon Hill compromise flexibility and make trades for impact players with commensurate salaries tricky.
Worse still, Jrue Holiday has all the leverage in the world. Because the Pelicans can't replace their free-agent point guard on the open market, they'll have no choice but to pay whatever he wants. Balking at a big deal to retain him could cost the Pels their third-best player and push Cousins closer to the door.
Stats courtesy of Basketball Reference or NBA.com. Salary info via Basketball Insiders.
