The Toughest Contract Decisions This NBA Offseason
No NBA contract decision can be made in a vacuum. With salary caps, luxury taxes and all manner of other restrictions written into the league's collective bargaining agreement, every dollar given to one player means a dollar less afforded to another. Even another jump in the cap—to an expected $101 million—can't and won't do much to ease financial crunches across the map.
That inconvenient calculus could complicate a number of contract situations across the Association this summer. There are aging All-Stars in both conferences whose incumbent squads will have to consider whether they want to spend $200 million or more to keep them around. There are also younger, promising role players whose teams will nonetheless have to weigh the value of offering them raises against seeking out cheaper replacements elsewhere.
As exciting as free agency is for fans and fervent observers alike, these 10 situations—listed in alphabetical order—could leave the front office personnel involved reaching for their preferred acid reflux remedies while considering the choices at hand.
Tony Allen/JaMychal Green/Zach Randolph, Memphis Grizzlies
1 of 10
The Memphis Grizzlies' Grit-N-Grind era may be facing extinction.
Tony Allen and Zach Randolph, the spiritual leaders of Memphis' binding identity, will both be unrestricted free agents. JaMychal Green, a stretchier 4 who may fit better with the franchise's future, is due to be restricted.
On paper, the Grizzlies can bring back the whole gang if they're all so inclined. Assuming they extend a qualifying offer to Green, they can then match any overtures from other teams. They can also shoot past the cap to keep Allen and Randolph, since Memphis has Bird rights for both.
Doing so could send the Grizzlies' payroll into luxury-tax territory. Incurring that kind of bill for a team that's probably not a true title contender is tricky—even more so for a cost-conscious, small-market franchise.
Memphis, then, may be forced to choose. Do the Grizzlies stick with Allen, a 35-year-old non-shooter on the wing, and Z-Bo, who turns 36 in July? Do they splash cash at Green, who shot 37.9 percent from three during his age-26 season but lost his starting spot to Randolph against the San Antonio Spurs in the playoffs? Or is there a middle path of some sort, wherein Green gets his payday while Allen and Randolph return at a hometown discount?
The soul of a squad that's been to a franchise-record seven straight playoffs could depend on the answer.
Jrue Holiday, New Orleans Pelicans
2 of 10
The New Orleans Pelicans will need plenty of help to get the Anthony Davis-DeMarcus Cousins pairing not only off the ground, but into the playoff picture.
The team went 7-10 during the 17 games in which those two both played, with a lack of perimeter shooting and a shallow pool of ball-handlers compounding an already uneasy fit between the two towering All-Stars.
In theory, Jrue Holiday could help on both fronts. Despite sitting out all of training camp and the first 12 games of the regular season to tend to his pregnant wife, who was diagnosed with a brain tumor, Holiday still shot a respectable 35.6 percent from three and paced New Orleans in assists (7.3 per game).
The Pelicans, for their part, would be happy to keep him around.
"We love Jrue, we love his family. Obviously we'd like to have him back," general manager Dell Demps said, per WDSU's Fletcher Mackel. "He's got a tough decision to make. We're going to let that process play out. He's one of my favorite players. He's a two-way player and a phenomenal person. We really enjoy having him here."
But Holiday's actual fit alongside the Brow and Boogie is no slam dunk. His shooting percentages shifted considerably after the trade deadline—from splits of .468/.393/.690 to .426/.301/.762.
While Holiday is an intriguing two-way talent, his tendency to dribble the air out of the ball looks less than ideal for a team that will need its guards to get the ball to Davis and Cousins quickly and cleanly. All of that puts the prospect of paying Holiday upwards of $20 million per year somewhere between problematic and downright perilous.
Then again, New Orleans might not have much choice. The Pelicans won't have the requisite cap space to pursue a big-time free agent to fill their backcourt, and they gave away their lottery pick (No. 10 overall) to get Cousins. They may have to meet Holiday's asking price, if only to avoid a damning downgrade on the perimeter.
That is, if he wants to return at all. Per Mackel, Holiday wants "a fresh start" and may be leery of locking himself into a situation that could explode if the team struggles in 2017-18.
Andre Iguodala/Shaun Livingston, Golden State Warriors
3 of 10
Win or lose in this year's Finals, the Golden State Warriors can rest easy knowing Stephen Curry and Kevin Durant will both return as free agents this summer. For the team's higher-ups, the nightmares might start creeping in once they focus on the futures of Andre Iguodala and Shaun Livingston.
Iguodala was the Finals MVP in 2015 and might be the Sixth Man of the Year in 2017. He's been vital to Golden State's renaissance on every front, from his willingness to come off the bench to his versatility unlocking the Warriors' "Death Lineup."
Livingston has been similarly (and simultaneously) interchangeable and indispensable in Oakland. He's ably backed up Curry at point guard while continuing to torch the twine from mid-range.
Both are excellent playmakers and multipositional defenders. But the Warriors may only have the means to bring back one of the two.
Allow Vice Sports' Michael Pina to explain:
"If Durant opts out, the two most probable scenarios are: A) a 1+1 deal using his Non-Bird Rights that starts at approximately $31.8 million (120 percent of his 2016-17 salary) or B) a brand new max contract that'd start around $35.3 million per year. The former keeps Golden State above the cap and allows them to retain all their own free agents, if they so choose. But if Durant wants as much money as he's eligible to earn, then that potentially squeezes out a player like Iguodala"
Golden State can only hope, then, that the organization's culture of selfless fun will be enough to coax Durant into a shorter, less lucrative deal. Otherwise, general manager Bob Myers may have to agonize over which of the team's super subs to keep—assuming the Dubs can stomach Iguodala's price tag at all.
Kyle Lowry, Toronto Raptors
4 of 10
Expectations can be a real pain in the NBA. Just ask Kyle Lowry and the Toronto Raptors.
For years, the Raptors were little more than an undesirable basketball outpost north of the U.S.-Canada border. Once Lowry settled in as a perennial All-Star, Toronto rose up the Eastern Conference ranks to challenge LeBron James' hegemony.
The result? Consecutive ousters at the hands of the Cleveland Cavaliers, including a four-game sweep in this year's second round that saw Lowry sit out the last two due to injury.
For the Raptors, running it back with this spring's squad—including Lowry, who's already opted out of his contract—could cost a pretty penny, as Bleacher Report's Ric Bucher laid out:
"The Raptors could give Lowry as much as $205 million over five years, while no other team can offer more than four years and roughly $152 million. Even convincing Lowry to take something less than the max would most likely mean losing three other valued free agents—Serge Ibaka, PJ Tucker and Patrick Patterson."
It will be up to team president Masai Ujiri, along with ownership, to determine how much is too much. Are the Raptors ready to dip into the luxury tax for a team that's clearly short of being a legitimate title contender? Is mere postseason relevance enough to satisfy a franchise and a fanbase that, up until last year, had never been to the conference finals?
If the answer is "no"—or Lowry decides he'd rather chase rings elsewhere—Toronto will have to either retool around DeMar DeRozan and Jonas Valanciunas or (gasp!) consider tearing its roster down to the studs.
Neither is an appetizing option, but spending exorbitant sums to maintain the Raptors' place in the pecking order might be just as tough to stomach.
JaVale McGee, Golden State Warriors
5 of 10
Has anyone done more this season to improve his image (and earning potential) than JaVale McGee? Once a pariah whose highlights were better suited for blooper reels, McGee has established himself as a key frontcourt contributor for the Golden State Warriors—much to their surprise.
“With JaVale, if you had’ve told me at the start of the year that he’s going to start in the Western Conference Finals, and score 16 points, even us, and I’m being honest, no way did we think that,” Warriors general manager Bob Myers said during a recent appearance on Bay Area radio, per KNBR’s Jake Montero.
Performances like those—along with 65.2 percent shooting during the regular season and a league-best 74.0 percent in these playoffs—could price McGee out of Golden State. As previously discussed, the Warriors will have a serious cap crunch with Stephen Curry and Kevin Durant ticketed for free agency. If Durant demands the full max, Golden State will have to renounce the Bird rights it has on its other free agents, including McGee, and fill out its roster with limited exceptions and veteran’s minimum contracts.
Not that the market for McGee is bound to be particularly robust. As much as he’s done to change the Association’s perception of him, there’s only so much money a center with a short shooting range and an even shorter track record of success can expect to command in today’s NBA.
Even if the Warriors get to use Bird rights to re-sign their own free agents, the cost of keeping McGee could still be prohibitive. And after striking gold for the price of pyrite with him, what’s to stop Golden State from scouring the landscape for another undervalued big man to fill the middle—and thinking the next find will be just as effective as the last?
Patty Mills/Jonathon Simmons, San Antonio Spurs
6 of 10
Gregg Popovich was understandably pissed off about Zaza Pachulia's hard closeout on Kawhi Leonard in Game 1 of the Western Conference Finals. That one play reaggravated Leonard's ankle sprain, knocking out the San Antonio Spurs' best player and all but sealing their fate against the Golden State Warriors.
But one part of Popovich's rant in particular could point to whether the Spurs decide to keep this team intact, with Patty Mills and Jonathon Simmons (among others) bound for free agency. Per Pro Basketball Talk's Dan Feldman:
"We're playing very possibly the best team in the league. We don't know what's going to happen in the East. And 9.75 people out of 10 would figure the Warriors will beat the Spurs. Well, we've had a pretty damn good season. We've played fairly well in the playoffs. I think we're getting better, and we're up 23 points in the third quarter against Golden State, and Kawhi goes down like that. And you want to know if your chances are less and you want to know how we feel. That's how we feel."
Perhaps, then, San Antonio would be comfortable doling out significant raises to Mills, an unrestricted free agent, and Simmons, who's restricted, and giving it another go with this group. Mills, 28, earned his keep during the regular season, hitting 41.3 percent of his threes, before struggling to replace the injured Tony Parker opposite the Warriors (24.3 percent from the field, 21.7 percent from three in the conference finals). Simmons, on the other hand, finished his postseason with seven straight double-digit scoring efforts, including four starts in Leonard's stead.
With or without those two, the Spurs will be contenders out West next season and probably beyond. Retaining Mills and Simmons would ensure the integrity of the team's rotation—which may be in peril if Manu Ginobili retires and Parker is slow to recover from his quad injury—though gone would be any possibility of adding another star in free agency (more on that in a bit).
Paul Millsap, Atlanta Hawks
7 of 10
Want a succinct summary of Paul Millsap's situation with the Atlanta Hawks? Go back to the slide about Kyle Lowry and replace every mention of Lowry's name and the Toronto Raptors with Millsap's name and the Hawks, respectively. Or, check out Paolo Uggetti's recap for The Ringer:
"Only two years ago, the Hawks won 60 games and garnered the title Spurs East. How things have changed. The Hawks now fall in the morass of NBA teams unable to compete, but also a bit too talented to blow it up and rebuild. This paradox haunts many franchises, but the Hawks have become the model Perpetually Middling Seed. In the wake of Millsap's likely departure, Atlanta seems desperate to find a course of action sooner rather than later…"
With Millsap in place next to Dennis Schroder and Dwight Howard, Atlanta has the goods to extend its franchise-best playoff streak into an 11th season, albeit without the top-end talent to challenge the Cleveland Cavaliers or (likely) the Boston Celtics. Without their best all-around player, the Hawks would have to hope that Howard suddenly rediscovers his Orlando Magic self or that Schroder, Taurean Prince and Tim Hardaway Jr. (a restricted free agent) make massive leaps between now and opening tip in the fall.
Millsap's age (32) and potential contract demands (he's eligible for more than $200 million over five years) could sway Atlanta one way or the other. So could the sour taste of losing Al Horford to Boston after the front office's reluctance pay him the full max last summer.
That group of decision-makers is no more now that general manager Wes Wilcox is out and head coach Mike Budenholzer has surrendered his executive duties. Instead, it will be up to whoever gets the gig next to chart the Hawks' future, with or without Millsap in the middle of it all.
Nerlens Noel, Dallas Mavericks
8 of 10
For years, the Dallas Mavericks searched farther and recruited harder than just about any team in the NBA for a legitimate center, only to come up short in free agency. Now, they have a promising young pivot in Nerlens Noel who’s ripe for their long-term taking as a restricted free agent.
Easy choice, right? Not so fast.
Noel came to Dallas at the trade deadline with plenty of baggage. He griped in public about his role with the Philadelphia 76ers and arrived replete with a history of debilitating injuries since sitting out his entire rookie season with a torn ACL.
To his credit, Noel showed plenty of promise during his 22 games in Dallas, tallying 8.5 points and 6.8 rebounds in 22.0 minutes a night. The Mavs, for their part, are pleased to see he’s already begun training with his teammates.
"I'm not allowed to talk about [negotiations] but all I can tell you is he's one of a bunch of guys who came in, they all got together and said 'Let's go down to the practice facility and start working out together,'" team owner Mark Cuban told 105.3 The Fan's Ben & Skin Show, per SportsDay. "So they're down there now and so that's exciting to see, and he's part of that group."
Noel might not be ready for a starring role just yet, but as the Dallas Morning News’ Eddie Sefko emphasized, that’s not unusual for a 23-year-old:
"Sometimes, it takes time for big men to get where they need to get. Everybody would love to have Karl-Anthony Towns or Anthony Davis drop in their lap and instantly start racking up 20 and 10 every night. But that's the exception, not the rule. If the Mavericks truly like Noel, they'll have to give him another 2-3 years to prove whether he can be the anchor in the middle or not."
That being said, the Mavericks must proceed cautiously with Noel. If they bet big on him and it goes bust, they could be stuck in salary-cap and lottery hell well after Dirk Nowitzki retires.
Chris Paul, Los Angeles Clippers
9 of 10
The Los Angeles Clippers have made it clear: They want Chris Paul back and will spend whatever it takes to keep him.
In their case, that price tag should soar north of $200 million over five years. That's steep for a player who, at 32, is bound to slow down during the course of his next contract and, for reasons (largely) beyond his control, has yet to lead a team past the second round of the playoffs.
Bring Paul back, and the Clippers are all but guaranteed to extend the franchise-record run of six straight postseason appearances that began with his arrival back in 2011. What they wouldn't have are any assurances of true title contention, what with the Warriors, Spurs, Houston Rockets and Utah Jazz still stalking the landscape and few avenues for the cap-clogged Clippers to add reinforcements.
Let Paul go, though, and L.A. could slip precipitously, perhaps back to the bottom of the standings, especially if Blake Griffin takes his talents elsewhere.
The decision won't be solely Doc Rivers' to make. After all, Paul will be an unrestricted free agent once he opts out of his contract and could choose to relocate to, say, San Antonio, where he and the Spurs have mutual interest, per ESPN's Zach Lowe.
The Clippers' ceiling won't likely get any higher from here on out with Paul around, but it sure beats the floor to which the team and its fans grew all too accustomed during Donald Sterling's reign.
Rajon Rondo, Chicago Bulls
10 of 10
There is no easy fit for Rajon Rondo in today's NBA, where shooting at all positions is at a premium—even more so with the Chicago Bulls. With Jimmy Butler, Dwyane Wade and Robin Lopez already taking up space inside the arc, there's rarely room for Rondo to roam.
ESPN's Zach Lowe noted as much when dissecting Chicago's clunky guard-wing pick-and-roll:
"Defenses double Butler without worrying about Rondo—whether he pops for 3, or slithers into floater range. When Butler screens for Rondo, defenses duck under to almost absurd levels, conceding open Rondo floaters."
And that's just the on-court difficulty. The locker room drama between Rondo, Butler and Wade that took center stage during the 2016-17 season only complicates his compliance with Chicago's future under head coach Fred Hoiberg.
The Bulls, then, not only have cause to part ways with Rondo, but also an incentive to do so; They can open up more than $10 million in cap room if they cut him by June 30. With that, Chicago could clear close to a max-salary slot by declining to extend qualifying offers to its restricted free agents (Nikola Mirotic, Michael Carter-Williams, Joffrey Lauvergne, Cristiano Felicio) and pursuing a steadier accomplice for Butler and Wade accordingly.
That doesn't appear to be how the Bulls will proceed, if executive vice president John Paxson's end-of-season press conference was any indication.
"We're going to make those decisions down the road, but there's a good chance, a really good chance, that we'll bring Rajon back," Paxson said, per ESPN's Nick Friedell. "And for these reasons: As we get younger, it's still really important to have quality veterans around your young players. And to a man, our young people love Rajon. He was great in the locker room, he was great off the court with these guys."
None of those youngsters looks like a ready-made replacement for Rondo at the point. That much became clear in the first round of the playoffs, when Chicago ceded a 2-0 series lead to the Boston Celtics after losing Rondo to a broken thumb.
The Bulls may not want the headaches, but if they want to win, they'd do well to stock up on ibuprofen with Rondo in tow.
All stats via NBA.com and Basketball Reference unless otherwise noted.
Josh Martin covers the NBA for Bleacher Report. Follow him on Twitter, Instagram and Facebook, and listen to his Hollywood Hoops podcast with B/R Lakers lead writer Eric Pincus.
