Next Steps for Each 1st-Round NBA Playoff Loser
The sting of losing may have subsided for teams eliminated in the first round of the 2017 NBA playoffs, but the dull ache of defeat lingers as a reminder, throbbing with a critical question.
How do we avoid this feeling next year?
The answer's different for every first-round loser, and some may even have longer-term goals that make returning to the playoffs at all a secondary concern.
Russell Westbrook and the Oklahoma City Thunder, for example, have a league-altering summer on deck.
We'll work big to small, highlighting each eliminated team's overarching offseason issue and then addressing the follow-up priorities. Some are praying their free agents stay. Others may be searching for ways to cut stars loose and start over.
For these teams, the offseason started the second they were bounced from the playoffs. They've all got serious work ahead.
Atlanta Hawks
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A good start would be figuring out who'll be making the decisions for the Atlanta Hawks.
According to Adrian Wojnarowski of The Vertical, Mike Budenholzer will give up his role as team president, and general manager Wes Wilcox will stay on in some front office capacity as the team searches for a new head of basketball operations.
Whoever winds up pulling the strings this summer will have a lot to consider.
Dwight Howard looked like he was running in sand during the playoffs, and he's predictably grumbling about fourth-quarter benchings. Unfortunately, a trade involving the big man will be tough to pull off; Kevin Arnovitz of ESPN.com says the possible return may be no more than a second-rounder and cap relief.
No surprise. In addition to his rep as a locker room divider, Howard is 31 and rapidly aging out of a changing game.
"The league with all the three-point shooting and all the bigs shooting threes is definitely a challenge for us and a challenge for Dwight," Budenholzer told reporters.
Also challenging: keeping unrestricted free agent Paul Millsap, figuring out how high to go in matching offer sheets for restricted free agent Tim Hardaway Jr. and deciding which of Ersan Ilyasova, Thabo Sefolosha and Mike Muscala are worth retaining.
Millsap is the heart of the team, its best player and a vessel of great symbolic value. After losing Al Horford for nothing last summer, watching Millsap follow him out would feel like hope itself quitting Atlanta.
Hardaway's situation could be delicate too. He took Kent Bazemore's starting job down the stretch, and all Atlanta did last summer was lavish $70 million on Bazemore. Do the Hawks consider Bazemore's cash a sunk cost? Do they believe in Hardaway enough to pay him like a starter?
Tough calls aside, Atlanta must also pray to the altar of Kawhi Leonard Development that Taurean Prince follows the burly wing's evolutionary path. Prince, a mid-first-rounder with a similar physical profile to the MVP candidate, showed flashes of serious two-way potential down the stretch.
Chicago Bulls
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In an on-the-nose reflection of the dynamic that defined the Chicago Bulls' 2016-17 season, it's hard to know which of several so-called alphas will determine the organization's course.
Jimmy Butler wants to return, but does that stance change if Dwyane Wade exercises his early-termination option? And what about Rajon Rondo's partial guarantee for next year? If executive vice president of basketball operations John Paxson and general manager Gar Forman pull the trigger on a Butler trade, you'd have to assume Wade would exercise his option and the team would let Rondo walk.
The Bulls also have four restricted free agents—Nikola Mirotic, Joffrey Lauvergne, Michael Carter-Williams and Cristiano Felicio—they could jettison by not extending qualifying offers or declining to match other team's entreaties.
A completely fresh start is possible here, but the likelier course is a repeat of last season.
Butler's contract, signed under the old CBA, is too team-friendly to give up—particularly in light of his ascent to, debatably, top-10 status in the NBA. And if he stays, it probably means Wade will return, in which case keeping Rondo makes more sense.
So if the only cash Chicago has to spend this summer is the modest amount freed up by waving goodbye to its free agents, the priority must be on perimeter shooting.
The spacing crunch created by Wade and Rondo was real, with the Bulls ranking 24th in three-point percentage and 28th in attempt rate last year. That has to change for Chicago to entertain anything better than the eighth seed in 2017-18.
Barring the unlikely teardown precipitated by a Butler trade, it looks like head coach Fred Hoiberg is in for another personnel group that doesn't fit his wide-open, up-and-down philosophy.
Indiana Pacers
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The Indiana Pacers approach a crossroads, and Larry Bird won't be around to pick a direction.
That's probably a good thing, as Bird's penchant for high-volume, low-efficiency scorers suggests the evolving game has left him behind.
Kevin Pritchard will call the personnel shots now, and his pragmatism could make a Paul George trade more likely. If Indy determines it will lose George in 2018 free agency, expect Pritchard to act preemptively—with a trade coming as early as draft night.
With or without George, the Pacers should focus on finding more three-point shooting. The days of Monta Ellis and Thaddeus Young passing up triples to step in for twos or drives need to end.
Jeff Teague is an unrestricted free agent who put together his best season as a pro in 2016-17, but the Pacers should resist committing anything close to max cash on a long-term deal for a point guard who turns 29 in June and might not be among the top 15 at his position.
If Indiana feels like Teague's essential, a two-year contract with an option for a third wouldn't be a bad way to go—even if it paid the max rate.
Getting Myles Turner to stretch his shot out to three-point range is another high priority. He was money from 16-23 feet, hitting 43.1 percent of his attempts. His 34.8 percent hit rate from deep was fine, but with just 1.4 triple tries per game, Turner didn't stretch the defense consistently enough.
If he pumps up the volume on his threes, that 34.8 percent accuracy will be perfectly fine. Adding bulk will make him one of the game's absolute best stretch 5s. And he's only 21 years old.
Broadly, if George is a goner, Indy's best course is embracing a patient rebuild around Turner, whose prime is still three or four years off. That's plenty of time to cultivate a fresh approach and nurture a new crop of young talent.
Los Angeles Clippers
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Chris Paul, Blake Griffin and J.J. Redick all have free-agent escape routes this summer, which means control over the next steps for the Los Angeles Clippers no longer resides with the organization.
The players will determine L.A.'s course, and in charting it, they'll ruminate on a central ideological tension raised by Redick, via Kevin Arnovitz of ESPN:
"There's something to be said for being a 50-win team every year. Maybe you make the second round, maybe you make the conference finals, or even the Finals, but you're not quite good enough. But I don't think that's the aspiration here, so the question becomes: Can our group get over the hump?
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That the players (and not ownership nor the front office) now face this question changes the dynamic. From an organizational perspective, there's a lot to be said for assured playoff position and an outside shot at a title if everything breaks right. The late-90s Utah Jazz waited it out with the same core for much longer than these Clippers have been together, and they finally broke through to the Finals toward the end of John Stockton and Karl Malone's careers.
For the Clips, that's a possibility worth keeping alive—especially if the alternative is a rebuild and a few years of irrelevance.
But for a player, it's different.
Why sign on for a ceiling that, if six years of evidence can be believed, is not title-high?
Paul is expected back on a max deal, but for Griffin and Redick, the choice isn't "status quo or teardown." They have choices. Plural.
They can test markets and seek out franchises with higher ceilings, less locker room tension and upward trajectories. And who knows what happens if rumblings of Doc Rivers' exit get louder?
If the core returns, "capped out" won't begin to describe the financial situation. L.A. will plunge deep into the dreaded repeater tax. And once again, it'll have only exceptions and league minimums to use when filling out a roster that needs wing depth and defensive versatility.
Memphis Grizzlies
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Marc Gasol and Mike Conley just produced their best offensive seasons as the Memphis Grizzlies began to transition out of their stodgy, slow-paced, defense-first past.
That they're pulling this off with Gasol and Conley heading into their 30s is remarkable, and it speaks to the skill and adaptability of the franchise cornerstones, both of whom are locked into long-term deals.
Building around those two has to start on the wings, where Chandler Parsons' health means he can't be counted on, and Tony Allen's free agency means change should be afoot. The Grizzlies also have to consider the cost of matching an offer sheet for restricted free agent JaMychal Green, who slots perfectly into the modern stretch-4 spot alongside Gasol.
Green will command a big number on the market because forwards with his combination of defense and three-point shooting (37.9 percent) are at the top of every team's want list. Retaining him could quickly cap out the Grizzlies, who'll head into 2017-18 paying Gasol, Conley and Parsons over $74 million.
Mainstay Zach Randolph is also a free agent, and it just feels like there's a return on an adopted hometown discount in his future.
Ultimately, Memphis improving on the 43-win season Gasol termed "unacceptable" depends on finding wing talent at a discount. Spending what it takes to keep Green and Randolph will cut into resources. If C.J. Miles opts out of the final year of his deal and Memphis can scrape the cash together to sign him, it'd be a coup.
P.J. Tucker will likely be out of range, but his ruggedness and improved three-point shooting would be perfectly on-brand.
Failing that, the Grizzlies may be looking at the Gerald Green or Luke Babbitt tier of wing free agents.
Milwaukee Bucks
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Priority No. 1: Locate a shot doctor for Giannis Antetokounmpo.
Unless you consider "trying too hard" or "wanting to dunk on three defenders every time down the floor" areas that need improving, an unreliable jumper (with some real mechanical flaws) is the only element missing from the Milwaukee Bucks superstar's game.
He knows it, too. After passing up a possible game-tying three in the Bucks' Game 6 elimination against the Toronto Raptors, he told reporters his offseason plans: "The two specific things I want to work on this summer are getting stronger and being able to knock down open threes, open shots. That’s it."
Antetokounmpo may already be the second-best player in the Eastern Conference. Imagine what he'll become if he improves his career 27.7 percent accuracy from deep by only five or six percentage points.
After putting Antetokounmpo through whatever processes are necessary to fix his shot—Navy SEAL training, flotation therapy, tantric yoga, hypnosis, whatever—the Bucks need to put Khris Middleton and Jabari Parker in bubble wrap to prevent injury. With those two secured, the next order of business is hoping Greg Monroe exercises his player option.
Moose was excellent off the bench this year, and even as Thon Maker surprised with his play in the postseason, he may not be ready for big minutes just yet. Monroe provides the interior scoring and second-unit leadership Milwaukee needs, and his $17.9 million price tag isn't terribly onerous—especially if its expiring status next season makes him easier to move at the 2018 deadline.
Tony Snell will hit restricted free agency, and bringing him back to support Middleton on the wing will be vital with Parker returning from yet another torn ACL.
The Bucks are primed for organic growth. If they get enough of it this summer, they can run it back with the same crew and expect even better results.
Oklahoma City Thunder
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On July 1, the Oklahoma City Thunder can offer Russell Westbrook a supermax extension worth more than $200 million over five years.
If he accepts it, OKC can set about judging Andre Roberson's worth as a restricted free agent, exploring an Enes Kanter trade and hoping Steven Adams and Victor Oladipo show enough improvement to make up a viable core alongside Russ for the next half-decade or so.
In that scenario, the Thunder will be capped out and have no way to retain Taj Gibson without hitting the tax.
But if Russ turns the extension down, everything changes, per Tim Bontemps of the Washington Post:
"Make no mistake: If Westbrook declines, the chances of him playing another game in a Thunder jersey drop virtually to zero. Thunder General Manager Sam Presti isn’t going to allow Westbrook to potentially leave as a free agent in the same fashion Durant did this past summer. Losing one franchise-changing superstar for nothing was bad enough. But losing two? That would be truly unprecedented.
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Expect Westbrook to be dealt if he doesn't ink that extension, in which case it'd become impossible to determine what else the Thunder might do. Chances are they'd be uncomfortable with Semaj Christon or Jerami Grant running the point, for starters.
Quietly, as the free-agency status of players like Paul Millsap, Chris Paul, Jrue Holiday, Stephen Curry and Kevin Durant draw more attention, the situation with Westbrook and the Thunder is potentially the most transformative of the entire offseason.
Westbrook was everything for Oklahoma City this season, so it's appropriate he's also the only thing that matters in the offseason. And though it's an open question whether he should scale it back and let others shine a little more, addressing it won't even be an option unless he agrees to stay long-term.
That's the beginning, middle and end of OKC's summer. Russ or bust.
Portland Trail Blazers
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The Portland Trail Blazers effectively made their big offseason splash early, trading Mason Plumlee for Jusuf Nurkic and a first-round pick at the February deadline.
That the Blazers managed to bolster their core was both unexpected and desperately needed. Following last summer's odd spending spree on Meyers Leonard, Evan Turner and Allen Crabbe—non-needle-movers, all—it seemed like Portland was locked into a roster that would top out as a feisty first-round out.
And the feistiness didn't even show up in a four-game sweep against the Golden State Warriors.
But with Nurkic around to handle the inside while Damian Lillard and CJ McCollum hold down the perimeter, there's hope for more.
Still, this is a roster lacking in young talent, unless ceremonial starter Noah Vonleh has an unexpected leap in him. That's the underappreciated reality with this team: It's not as young as most think.
Lillard will be 27 when the 2017-18 season starts. McCollum will be 26. Both are terrific players, but they're in their primes right now. Expecting them to continue improving is probably a mistake.
Portland has three first-round picks, though. If it hits on one of them, the dynamic suddenly changes, and the idea of a youth movement gets more realistic.
Alternatively, the Blazers could package one of those selections in a deal to move some of last summer's misspent money. If Portland adopts a firmer win-now posture, that would be one way to free the cash to follow that course.
In terms of organic growth, Maurice Harkless and Al-Farouq Aminu must develop their outside shots. The Warriors ignored both in the first round, daring them to make threes and gumming up the offense for Portland's more dangerous options. Liabilities like that have no place on a team trying to contend.
Stats courtesy of Basketball Reference or NBA.com. Accurate through May 4.
