NFL1000: New England Patriots 2017 NFL Draft Preview
It’s not that Bill Belichick needed more on-field achievements to cement his place as perhaps the best coach in NFL history, but the Patriots’ comeback from a 28-3 deficit in Super Bowl LI may have put the argument to rest. No coach in memory does a better job of adjusting to circumstances—in-game, over a season and through the years. The Patriots’ ability to adjust to Atlanta’s defense at a meta level was but one more example.
Those who insist Belichick wouldn’t succeed without Tom Brady had their arguments negated by the 2008 season, when New England went 11-5 with Matt Cassel under center, and the first four games of the 2016 season, when Brady was suspended and the team went 3-1.
Of course, when you have Brady, a terrific coaching staff and players who buy in, that all helps. But there are 32 NFL head coaches who are constantly trying to align coaching with talent, and Belichick does it better than anybody else. That’s why he’s the only head coach with five Super Bowl rings, and it’s what makes the Patriots a perennial championship contender as long as he's at the helm.
Moving forward to the 2017 campaign, there are a few things to address. The free-agency departures of Jabaal Sheard and Chris Long leave the team a little light at defensive end. Running back LeGarrette Blount is a free agent fresh off an 18-touchdown season, and depth at linebacker is an issue.
Still, the Pats were able to fill their coffers in the offseason in some great ways. The trade for former Saints receiver Brandin Cooks gives Brady a legitimate deep threat with volume target potential, and the signing of ex-Bills cornerback Stephon Gilmore could present Belichick with a first-tier pass defender if Gilmore proves to fit the system. Plus, acquiring former Colts tight end Dwayne Allen feels like one of the sleeper moves of the offseason.
It’s more of the same for the defending champs: a few holes to fill in the draft, and then, another shot at the title.
Methodology
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The NFL1000 team of scouts graded a series of important attributes for every player in their positional review. Using a scale starting at zero and going up to anywhere from five to 50 based on the position and the attribute, our scouts graded each player based on their own expertise and countless hours of tape review over the years. Our evaluators had specific positional assignments based on their proven fields of expertise.
- Doug Farrar: Lead scout/quarterbacks
- John Middlekauff: Running backs/fullbacks
- Marcus Mosher: Wide receivers/tight ends
- Mark Schofield: Wide receivers/tight ends
- Duke Manyweather: Offensive tackles
- Ethan Young: Offensive guards
- Joe Goodberry: AFC defensive ends
- Justis Mosqueda: NFC defensive ends
- Charles McDonald: Defensive tackles
- Zach Kruse: 3-4 outside linebackers
- Derrik Klassen: 4-3 outside linebackers
- Jerod Brown: Inside linebackers
- Kyle Posey: Cornerbacks
- Ian Wharton: Cornerbacks
- Mark Bullock: Safeties
- Chuck Zodda: Special teams
Each corresponding position slide was written by the assigned scout.
Quarterback
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Scheme: Erhardt-Perkins/Hybrid blocking
Starter: Tom Brady
NFL1000 Score: 76.9/100
NFL1000 Position Rank: 2/38
There’s nothing Brady hasn’t accomplished in his career, but his efficiency in 2016 was ridiculous, even for him. Throwing 28 touchdowns to just two interceptions in the regular season and matching that with a mostly marvelous postseason (aside from the two-pick speed bump against the Texans), Brady proved he’s still at the top of his game, even though he’ll be 40 in August. If there are dents in the armor at this point, they’re the same things he’s had slight issues with the last few seasons.
You can rock him off his base and force him to make accuracy errors, and he’s not the deep passer he used to be. The Patriots have adjusted to this with far more short passes in which he gets the ball out in three- and five-step increments. There’s still a deep passing game, which should increase with the acquisition of Brandin Cooks. The coaching staff has done well to scheme around Brady’s few limitations—most of the time, it’s as if they don’t even exist. Brady has reportedly said he wants to play into his mid-40s, and why on earth shouldn’t he?
Backup: Jimmy Garoppolo
NFL1000 Scores: Did not have enough snaps to qualify
Garoppolo made it through most of two games as New England’s starter while Brady was serving his Deflategate suspension before a shoulder injury sidelined him. He was as efficient as expected in those two starts, throwing four touchdowns and no picks. He gives the Patriots a mobility outside the pocket that Belichick really hasn’t had in a quarterback before now. There’s an element of randomness in Garoppolo’s playing that reminds some of Tony Romo, but he’s shown clear evidence of adhering to New England’s ridiculously disciplined passing game. Trade rumors abound, but unless Belichick gets a king’s ransom in return, don’t expect the Patriots to move on from one of the league’s better backup situations.
Backup: Jacoby Brissett
NFL1000 Scores: Did not have enough snaps to qualify
Brissett took over the last two starts of Tom Brady’s four-game suspension, showing both good and bad. He was absolutely brilliant as an option quarterback and runner against the Texans in Week 3—Houston’s top-ranked defense had no idea what to do with him—but he was less effective against the Bills in Week 4. Brissett clearly needs further development, especially on his intermediate and deep accuracy, but his skill set is highly intriguing for a team that’s never really had it before.
Team Need: 4/10
Potential Draft Fits: Nathan Peterman (Pitt), Davis Webb (California)
Running Back
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Scheme: West Coast/Zone/Power
Starter: Dion Lewis
NFL1000 Scores: 72.0/100
NFL1000 Position Rank: 24/82
Dion Lewis returned from an ACL injury in Week 11 and seemed to regain his old form with every passing game. He's a dynamic running back who hangs his hat on versatility and is clearly highly valued by Belichick. Even in limited action, Lewis had 17 catches, and he was vital out of the backfield as a receiving option. His ability to get open in the passing game means he's a difference-maker for the Patriots offense. He can run all the routes and gets open with ease on potential defenders. He is an excellent player in space.
In the run game, even despite being a smaller back, Lewis is a productive inside runner. He is tough and physical, and he has natural vision running up the middle. He has the feet to make defenders miss in the open field and the speed to make explosive plays. While he is not an ideal full-time starter, he is one of the top No. 2 backs in the NFL. Overall, he a very valuable chess piece for the Patriots offense and should continue to produce in 2017.
Backup: James White
NFL1000 Scores: 70.1/100
NFL1000 Position Rank: 42/82
James White took a massive step forward in 2016, helping the Patriots become a championship offense. While he will always be a third-down pass-catching back, he became much more complete as a runner last year. He averaged 4.3 yards per carry and turned into a dependable running option. White is a quicker back who is best suited to run outside the tackles. He was dominant as a pass receiver last season, with 60 catches and five touchdowns. Defenders can't mirror him because of his quickness and change of direction. White possesses a natural feel for working in coverages and finding open spaces on option routes. He was fantastic in the Super Bowl, totaling 14 catches, 110 receiving yards and three total touchdown. Overall, he is a fantastic role player who should continue to succeed on third down for the Patriots.
Backup: Rex Burkhead
NFL1000 Scores: Did not have enough snaps to qualify
After spending four years with the Cincinnati Bengals, New England signed Rex Burkhead as a backup running back in March. Burkhead did not play enough to receive a grade in 2016, but he did have a career year relative to his previous seasons. He averaged 4.6 yards per carry and added 17 receptions. His main value is on special teams, an area that Belichick clearly values. Depending on if the Patriots sign another running back, Burkhead's role could change in New England's offense. Overall, the Patriots added a versatile player who excels on special teams and is capable of carving out a role on offense.
Team Need: 5/10
Potential Draft Fits: Jamaal Williams (BYU), D’Onta Foreman (Texas)
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Fullback
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Scheme: West Coast/Zone/Power
Starter: James Develin
NFL1000 Scores: 71.1/100
NFL1000 Position Rank: 11/20
James Develin had his best NFL season in 2016, and the Patriots rewarded him for his efforts with a two-year contract. While the Patriots are the most versatile offense in the NFL, they mainly utilize Develin in the run game. He is an excellent lead blocker, is physical on contact and moves defenders once he engages. He's not a threat to run the football, but he's not a bad athlete and is functional on short-yardage carries. Develin doesn't produce in the passing game, but he does have the ability to catch the football. Overall, he's a very good starting fullback who excels at his role in the Patriots offense.
Backup: Glenn Gronkowski
NFL1000 Scores: Did not have enough snaps to qualify
Gronkowski only played in one game in 2016 after joining the Bills as an undrafted free agent. He was released after Week 1, and he spent the year on the Patriots practice squad. New England signed him to a futures contract in Feburary, but he is a long shot to make the team, even with his last name. However, he could earn a spot in the NFL with a good preseason audition for other teams.
Team Need: 0/10
Potential Draft Fits: None
Wide Receiver
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Scheme: Erhardt-Perkins
Starter: Julian Edelman
NFL1000 Score: 73.1/100
NFL1000 Position Rank: 4/155
The former Kent State quarterback has emerged as Brady’s go-to target at the wide receiver position, and the Patriots passing game ran through Edelman while Rob Gronkowski missed multiple games due to injuries. While thought of as a slot receiver, Edelman has the ability to operate both from the slot and along the sideline, and he is one of those players who can work himself open on a variety of routes, including deeper patterns such as dig routes and post routes.
One consideration for the organization is Edelman’s age. He will turn 31 in May, and while that is still young, it is close to the age when Wes Welker began to regress in New England. While Welker’s injury history was more extensive than Edelman’s, the Patriots might look to find his replacement soon. Perhaps that was the reason behind the trade for Brandin Cooks, but they may still address the position in the draft.
Starter: Brandin Cooks
NFL1000 Scores: 68.2/100
NFL1000 Position Rank: 35/155
The Patriots acquired Cooks in a trade earlier this offseason, sending their first-round selection (No. 32 overall) and third-round pick to New Orleans in exchange for the shifty receiver. Only 23 years old, Cooks is a dangerous threat both underneath as well as down the field, though his role was diminished somewhat last year after the Saints drafted Michael Thomas out of Ohio State. Cooks is a similar player to Edelman, but he provides more of a deep threat given his speed and ability to beat press at the line of scrimmage.
Given New England’s scheme, expect Cooks to operate more in the intermediate area of the field, while working in the occasional vertical route to keep the defense honest. His ability down the field should free up some room underneath for both Edelman and a (hopefully) healthy Rob Gronkowski.
Backup: Danny Amendola
NFL1000 Scores: 68.5/100
NFL1000 Position Rank: 30/155
Amendola turned in a solid season for the Patriots in 2016-2017, while saving his best work for the postseason. He caught 23 passes for 243 yards and four touchdowns in the regular season, including two touchdowns in Week 2 against the Dolphins. But he was a crucial component of New England’s comeback victory in Super Bowl LI, catching a season-high eight passes for 78 yards and a touchdown, in addition to a critical two-point conversion that tied the game in the final minute.
Amendola is primarily used as a slot receiver in New England, working underneath and over the middle. He has the ability to work himself open on routes such as slants and pivots and can find space over the middle on digs or even deeper curl routes.
Backup: Malcolm Mitchell
NFL1000 Scores: 63.5/100
NFL1000 Position Rank: 91/155
Drafted out of the University of Georgia, Mitchell found himself in a rare spot as a rookie: inside Tom Brady’s circle of trust. Perhaps this was most apparent during Super Bowl LI, when the Patriots signal-caller looked to the rookie on a few third-down situations late in the game, trusting that Mitchell would work himself open and make a big conversion.
At 5’11”, Mitchell is utilized primarily as an X receiver in New England’s offense, although he can serve as a Z receiver too. He was very adept last season at routes on the outside, such as quick out patterns or even hitch/curl routes, where he could push the defender vertically and gain separation on his break after selling the deep route. He and Chris Hogan serve as the Patriots’ two primary weapons on the outside.
Backup: Chris Hogan
NFL1000 Scores: 65.9/100
NFL1000 Position Rank: 64/155
Acquired in March 2016 from the Buffalo Bills as a restricted free agent, Hogan stepped into the New England offense and provided some versatility at the receiver spot, both in terms of his ability on the outside and his presence down the field. He averaged 17.9 yards per reception this season, tied with DeSean Jackson for most in the league. Hogan was at his best in the playoffs, catching nine passes for 180 yards and two touchdowns in the AFC Championship Game against Pittsburgh. In Super Bowl LI, Hogan hauled in four passes for 57 yards, but he had a key reception on New England’s game-winning drive in overtime. His ability both on the outside and down the field is a perfect complement to Edelman and will make a great pairing with Cooks.
Team Need: 1/10
Potential Draft Fits: None. Could consider bringing in camp competition with undrafted free agents.
Tight End
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Scheme: Erhardt-Perkins
Starter: Rob Gronkowski
NFL1000 Scores: 72.4/100
NFL1000 Position Rank: 2/96
When healthy, Grokowski is perhaps the most dominant tight end in the league. He is a matchup nightmare, with the athletic ability to run away from most linebackers and safeties, the size to split outside and use his raw power and the physical ability to overmatch smaller defensive backs. In addition, Gronkowski is imposing as an in-line blocker and can be used in the running game or even in pass protection from time to time.
However, questions about his health remain. He has not played a full 16-game regular-season slate since 2011, his second season in the NFL. He only played eight games last year before he was placed on season-ending injured reserve with a back injury, a problem that has plagued him since his collegiate days. On the field, he is an elite offensive weapon, but given his injury history, the Patriots are likely considering the long-term depth at the position.
Backup: Dwayne Allen
NFL1000 Scores: 64.5/100
NFL1000 Position Rank: 35/96
With the emergence of Jack Doyle, the Indianapolis Colts were able to move on from Allen. In stepped the Patriots, who acquired the tight end in a trade, sending a 2017 fourth-round selection to the Colts for Allen and a 2017 sixth-round selection. Despite the growth and utilization of Doyle in the Colts offense, Allen still had one of his best years in the league last season, catching 35 passes for 406 yards and six touchdowns.
Early last season, when both Gronkowski and Martellus Bennett were healthy (and Brady was serving his four-game suspension), the Patriots often employed 12 offensive personnel, using two tight ends in the formation. If Gronkowski is healthy, he and Allen could serve as a strong one-two punch for the New England offense. Both are capable blockers, and Allen can serve as a red-zone weapon for the Patriots.
Backup: Matt Lengel
NFL1000 Scores: 59.3/100
NFL1000 Position Rank: 73/96
Lengel appeared in six of the final seven regular-season games for the Patriots, catching one pass for an 18-yard score against the New York Jets. On that play, he ran a seam route and was able to secure the ball at the goal line in a contested catch situation for the score. He was used primarily as an extra blocker or to spell Bennett for a few snaps. As a blocker, Lengel is solid and can execute blocks on the edge in power schemes. He is a decent third option for the Patriots, but he cannot be expected to develop into a consistent threat in the passing game.
Team Need: 4/10
Potential Draft Fits: Evan Engram (Mississippi), Gerald Everett (South Alabama), Cole Hikutini (Louisville), Bucky Hodges (Virginia Tech)
Left Tackle
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Scheme: Gap/Power and Zone
Starter: Nate Solder
NFL1000 Scores: 74.5/100
NFL1000 Position Rank: 18/40
After a frustrating 2015 season in which he only started four games before being placed on injured reserve, Nate Solder bounced back in 2016 and was a key piece for New England capturing yet another Lombardi Trophy.
Solder got off to a slow start, but he continued to improve as the season went on. It's likely the return of veteran offensive line coach Dante Scarnecchia was a huge reason for not only Solder’s progress, but also the entire offensive line’s comprehensive development.
Solder enters his seventh season with the Patriots and has started 79 regular-season games. He has won two Super Bowls with New England, and despite some limitations in pass protection against elite rushers, he provides the Patriots with a solid starter who is adequate in protection and above average as a run-blocker.
Backup: LaAdrian Waddle
NFL1000 Scores: Did not have enough snaps to qualify
LaAdrian Waddle has started 24 career games, all at right tackle with the Detroit Lions, whom he signed with as an undrafted free agent in 2013. Detroit released Waddle late in the 2015 season, but New England signed him almost immediately. The Patriots then re-signed him to a new two-year contract last spring. Waddle provides quality depth with starting experience at both left and right tackle.
Team Need: 0/10
Potential Draft Fits: None. Could consider bringing in camp competition with undrafted free agents.
Right Tackle
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Scheme: Gap/Power and Zone
Starter: Marcus Cannon
NFL1000 Scores: 72.8/100
NFL1000 Position Rank: 14/38
Numbers don't always tell the full story, and Marcus Cannon’s 2016 season is a great example of this. Cannon surrendered three sacks and 22 pressures all season. Two of those sacks occurred in Week 1 against Arizona, and 14 pressures came in the first 10 weeks of the season. As the season progressed, so did Cannon in all aspects.
He was stellar in his pass protection and efficient as a run-blocker, which clearly pleased New England’s front office: They rewarded Cannon with a new five-year deal worth $32.5 million, with $14.5 million guaranteed.
Cannon’s performance also grabbed the attention of All-Pro voters. He tied for second-team All-Pro honors with Kansas City's Mitchell Schwartz.
Backup: Cameron Fleming
NFL1000 Scores: Did not have enough snaps to qualify
Cameron Fleming started at left tackle for New England in the first three games of the season, but only in Week 1 did he play the entire game. He started at right tackle in Week 5 and in Week 14 and saw spot-duty action all season as a swing tackle. Despite playing just over 300 snaps, Fleming did not record an overall NFL1000 grade, but he provides New England with quality depth that can cover multiple positions.
Team Need: 0/10
Potential Draft Fits: None. Could consider bringing in camp competition with undrafted free agents.
Offensive Guard
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Scheme: Zone flex
Starter: Joe Thuney
NFL1000 Scores: 68.8/100
NFL1000 Position Rank: 49/78
After a hot start to the year, Joe Thuney started to get pushed around a bit later on in the season against bigger fronts. This was a concern for him coming out of NC State, as well as for most other college tackles converting inside, but to take the step from serviceable to good, he needs to put on some functional strength.
Starter: Shaq Mason
NFL1000 Scores: 70.0/100
NFL1000 Position Rank: 38/78
Shaq Mason is the wrecking ball to Thuney’s smooth feet, and his physicality up front was a big reason for LeGarrette Blount’s huge year. Mason took a nice step forward in pass protection this year as well. Although he isn’t where he needs to be from a footwork standpoint yet, he has the tools to fix those problems in his third year.
Backup: Ted Karras
NFL1000 Scores: Did not have enough snaps to qualify
Ted Karras was one of the top sleeper offensive linemen from last year’s class. From the 2016 East-West Shrine Game to his now, he has been a rock-solid contributor on the right side. He has some movement deficiencies, but he plays around them, keeping everything in front of him with well-placed footwork. The ceiling isn’t all that high for the Illinois alum, but for a depth guard, a consistent option like Karras is perfect.
Team Need: 0/10
Potential Draft Fits: None
Center
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Scheme: Zone flex
Starter: David Andrews
NFL1000 Scores: 68.6/100
NFL1000 Position Rank: 27/38
Dante Scarnecchia’s best work may be with David Andrews, as he has managed to turn a squatty center with several physical limitations into a usable option. But if the Patriots do address the interior offensive line, this is the spot they should target. Andrews' lack of power and movement ability can only get him so far, and it's hard to imagine him getting into even the average ranks going forward due to his limitations. Plus, the Pats could use another body at center anyways, given their current depth options are all primarily guards.
Team Need: 5/10
Potential Draft Fits: Tyler Orlosky (West Virginia), Chase Roullier (Wyoming)
Defensive End
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Scheme: 3-4 hybrid
Starter: Trey Flowers
NFL1000 Score: 66.4/100
NFL1000 Position Rank: 25/68 (graded at 4-3 DE)
His overall score doesn't reflect how good Trey Flowers truly is. Last season was easily his best, and he got better as it went along. Flowers may have had his best performance in the Super Bowl. He's an interior pass-rusher and edge run defender in New England’s hybrid defense. Flowers is an athlete inside and a physical edge setter against the run. His starting job shouldn't be in jeopardy, and his snaps should increase from last year's 726.
Starter: Kony Ealy
NFL1000 Score: 64.1/100
NFL1000 Position Rank: 51/68 (graded at 4-3 DE)
Kony Ealy's strengths and weaknesses are very similar to Trey Flowers'. He should be a solid interior rusher, but he doesn't always win on the edge. Ealy, who was traded to the Patriots from the Carolina Panthers in March, tallied five sacks last year. He played 624 snaps for the Panthers in 2016 and should be in line to take a good bulk of the snaps in New England’s rotation.
Backup: Lawrence Guy
NFL1000 Score: 59.8/100
NFL1000 Position Rank: 42/53
Lawrence Guy was a rotational, early-down defender for the Baltimore Ravens who didn't get many opportunities to rush the passer. He totaled just one sack in 2016. After signing with the Pats in free agency, it's likely he'll have a similar impact in New England.
Team Need: 3/10
Potential Draft Fits: Malik McDowell (Michigan State)
Defensive Tackle
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Scheme: 3-4 hybrid
Starter: Malcom Brown
NFL1000 Scores: 72.6/100
NFL1000 Position Rank: 8/99
Malcom Brown has developed into one of the best defensive tackles in the league over the course of his career. He’s not an explosive player, but he’s as technically sound as they come. His technique allows him to be a force versus the run and pass even though he’s not a physical freak. Brown might not get much better than he is right now, but that’s fine. At worst, he’s a top-12 defensive tackle in the league.
Backup: Alan Branch
NFL1000 Scores: 67.9/100
NFL1000 Position Rank: 22/99
Alan Branch was dominant against the run last season. With Vincent Valentine still trying to get up to NFL speed, it was a wise decision for the Patriots to bring Branch back in free agency. He is one of the best run-stoppers in the league. At this stage in his career, he’ll never be the most dynamic pass-rusher, but he can still make splash plays in that department.
Backup: Vincent Valentine
NFL1000 Scores: 65.0/100
NFL1000 Position Rank: 39/99
Valentine had a strong start to his rookie season, but injuries derailed his progress. Valentine is a great athlete for his size, and it showed early in the season, as he was able to run circles around offensive linemen in the run game. He struggled with back injuries throughout the year, but he still flashed the athleticism that allowed him to break into the rotation early as a rookie. Expect big a sophomore season for Valentine.
Team Need: 2/10
Potential Draft Fits: Caleb Brantley (Florida), Larry Ogunjobi (Charlotte), Tanzel Smart (Tulane)
Outside Linebacker
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Scheme: 3-4 hybrid
Starter: Malcom Brown
NFL1000 Scores: 72.6/100
NFL1000 Position Rank: 8/99
Malcom Brown has developed into one of the best defensive tackles in the league over the course of his career. He’s not an explosive player, but he’s as technically sound as they come. His technique allows him to be a force versus the run and pass even though he’s not a physical freak. Brown might not get much better than he is right now, but that’s fine. At worst, he’s a top-12 defensive tackle in the league.
Backup: Alan Branch
NFL1000 Scores: 67.9/100
NFL1000 Position Rank: 22/99
Alan Branch was dominant against the run last season. With Vincent Valentine still trying to get up to NFL speed, it was a wise decision for the Patriots to bring Branch back in free agency. He is one of the best run-stoppers in the league. At this stage in his career, he’ll never be the most dynamic pass-rusher, but he can still make splash plays in that department.
Backup: Vincent Valentine
NFL1000 Scores: 65.0/100
NFL1000 Position Rank: 39/99
Valentine had a strong start to his rookie season, but injuries derailed his progress. Valentine is a great athlete for his size, and it showed early in the season, as he was able to run circles around offensive linemen in the run game. He struggled with back injuries throughout the year, but he still flashed the athleticism that allowed him to break into the rotation early as a rookie. Expect big a sophomore season for Valentine.
Team Need: 2/10
Potential Draft Fits: Caleb Brantley (Florida), Larry Ogunjobi (Charlotte), Tanzel Smart (Tulane)
Inside Linebacker
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Scheme: 3-4 hybrid
Starter: Malcom Brown
NFL1000 Scores: 72.6/100
NFL1000 Position Rank: 8/99
Malcom Brown has developed into one of the best defensive tackles in the league over the course of his career. He’s not an explosive player, but he’s as technically sound as they come. His technique allows him to be a force versus the run and pass even though he’s not a physical freak. Brown might not get much better than he is right now, but that’s fine. At worst, he’s a top-12 defensive tackle in the league.
Backup: Alan Branch
NFL1000 Scores: 67.9/100
NFL1000 Position Rank: 22/99
Alan Branch was dominant against the run last season. With Vincent Valentine still trying to get up to NFL speed, it was a wise decision for the Patriots to bring Branch back in free agency. He is one of the best run-stoppers in the league. At this stage in his career, he’ll never be the most dynamic pass-rusher, but he can still make splash plays in that department.
Backup: Vincent Valentine
NFL1000 Scores: 65.0/100
NFL1000 Position Rank: 39/99
Valentine had a strong start to his rookie season, but injuries derailed his progress. Valentine is a great athlete for his size, and it showed early in the season, as he was able to run circles around offensive linemen in the run game. He struggled with back injuries throughout the year, but he still flashed the athleticism that allowed him to break into the rotation early as a rookie. Expect big a sophomore season for Valentine.
Team Need: 2/10
Potential Draft Fits: Caleb Brantley (Florida), Larry Ogunjobi (Charlotte), Tanzel Smart (Tulane)
Cornerback
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Scheme: Cover 1 press man
Starter: Malcolm Butler
NFL1000 Scores: 69.4/100
NFL1000 Position Rank: 18/133
Butler came on strong during the second half of the season. According to my charting, he only gave up 10 first downs over the last 11 games, including the playoffs. For a 190-pound corner, Butler sure is physical. His performance against Antonio Brown in the conference championship was superb. He was only beaten once, broke up a pass and did about as well as possible against a top-tier receiver. Butler is feisty in coverage and constantly disrupts receivers. His main downfall is pure speed receivers. He also doesn’t follow bigger receivers around. Last season, Butler was an upper-echelon corner.
Starter: Stephon Gilmore
NFL1000 Scores: 67.3/100
NFL1000 Position Rank: 29/133
Gilmore is the most talented corner on the roster. He’s disruptive like Butler but a much better athlete. The Patriots likely brought him in so he can track the bigger receivers in the conference. As gifted as Gilmore is, last season was a bit of a rollercoaster. There were games where he looked like the top-15 player he is. Then there were games where you could easily see why the Bills didn’t give him big money. Some of this can be attributed to usage; other parts can be attributed to not playing at a high level. It’s a safe bet that Gilmore will be in press coverage a good bit next year. That way, his natural tools can take over and he won’t need to worry about multiple routes. Expect a bounce-back year from Gilmore.
Nickel: Eric Rowe
NFL1000 Scores: 67.4/100
NFL1000 Position Rank: 27/133
The Eagles have to be kicking themselves for giving up on Rowe so soon. The Patriots used him as their No. 3 corner, and he fit right into their aggressive, press-man system. There were a few games where Rowe graded out as the highest corner. Mainly playing on the perimeter, he has the length and speed coaches covet. Essentially his rookie year, he performed admirably for New England. He has to improve at the top of routes when it comes to staying in step with the receiver. With more reps, that should only improve.
Team Need: 5/10
Potential Draft Fits: Chidobe Awuzie (Colorado), Marlon Humphrey (Alabama), Fabian Moreau (UCLA), Ahkello Witherspoon (Colorado), Kevin King (Washington)
Free Safety
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Scheme: Cover 1
Starter: Devin McCourty
NFL1000 Scores: 77.1/100
NFL1000 Position Rank: 1/50
McCourty is perhaps the most versatile coverage safety in the NFL. Having converted from corner to free safety, McCourty has the ability to rotate down and cover the slot or even line up against outside receivers, something that most safeties typically aren’t able to do. In base packages, he will play as the single deep safety, using his great instincts and range to cover deep and allow Patrick Chung to play exclusively in the box. In nickel and dime sub-packages, McCourty will rotate down and take a specific coverage assignment, which can change from week to week. Sometimes, he might match up in man coverage against a receiving tight end. The following week, he might help bracket the opposition’s top wide receiver. His versatility allows Bill Belichick to diversify game plans each week and take away the opposition's top receiving threat, whoever it may be.
Backup: Duron Harmon
NFL1000 Scores: 71.6/100
NFL1000 Position Rank: 19/50
In New England, Harmon is the third safety who really only sees the field in nickel and dime packages. His job is to take over McCourty’s responsibilities as the single deep safety, freeing him up to take other coverage assignments. Harmon does that perfectly, staying on top of routes and displaying great range to work from the middle of the field to the sideline. It's surprising he wasn’t signed elsewhere as a starter in free agency, but he has a very defined role that he is comfortable with in New England, where he is always likely to challenge for Super Bowl titles. He’s typically gone under the radar, but the Patriots know just how valuable he is.
Team Need: 0/10
Potential Draft Fits: None. Could consider bringing in camp competition with undrafted free agents
Strong Safety
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Scheme: Cover 1
Starter: Patrick Chung
NFL1000 Scores: 72.0/100
NFL1000 SS Rank: 23/53
Chung has quietly developed into a good strong safety over the last few years. The Patriots smartly gave him a very defined role, in which he is exclusively a box safety against the run that will match up against both tight ends and running backs when dropping into coverage. While he’s not a big, intimidating presence in the box, like a Kam Chancellor or Landon Collins, he understands his run fits and knows where he needs to be. In coverage, he does a good job staying with tight ends and backs in man coverage, although typically McCourty will take the more athletic tight ends. Chung has become a consistent performer for the Patriots, who know exactly what they are getting every week from him. He’s a reliable, if unspectacular starter who won’t let them down very often and will always be on the field.
Backup: Jordan Richards
NFL1000 Scores: Did not have enough snaps to qualify
Richards was a second-round pick of the Patriots in 2015, but he has hardly played a snap for them since. He’s still young, having only just turned 24 in January, meaning he has plenty of time ahead of him to develop. At this point, the Patriots have a well-defined structure for their main three safeties; McCourty, Harmon and Chung. That allows them to quietly develop someone like Richards without exposing him before he’s ready. When he came out of college, he was known as a box safety who struggled at times in coverage. To back up the role Chung plays, he would need to improve in coverage, but he fits the role as a run defender. Unless Chung gets hurt, Richards is unlikely to see much playing time this season.
Team Need: 1/10
Potential Draft Fits: None. Could consider bringing in camp competition with undrafted free agents
Kicker
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Starter: Stephen Gostkowski
NFL1000 Scores: 67.4/100
NFL1000 Position Rank: 18/34
Stephen Gostkowski struggled out of the gate this year, with mechanical issues forcing a number of misses to the right. He seemed to right the ship after missing extra points in back-to-back weeks in October, but he faced some additional struggles in the playoffs, missing extra points in the AFC Championship Game and Super Bowl, raising questions about where he stands heading into the offseason.
On one level, it is difficult to see New England moving on from Gostkowski, who has been one of the most dependable kickers in the NFL over the past four seasons. However, this was not the first season in which he struggled in the playoffs, as a missed extra point in last year’s AFC Championship Game contributed to New England's loss.
Gostkowski is likely back in 2017, but expect the Patriots to bring in competition in the form of either a rookie or second-year kicker who can push him—and if he struggles during the preseason, potentially replace him. The odds of him not being the starter in Week 1 are not high, but there is more competition for this spot in New England than at any point since 2010, when Gostkowski missed eight games due to injury.
Team Need: 4/10
Potential Draft Fits: None
Punter
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Punter: Ryan Allen
NFL1000 Scores: 65.4/100
NFL1000 Position Rank: 22/34
A year after appearing to make the jump into the top 10 punters in the NFL, Ryan Allen regressed somewhat in 2017, largely because of inconsistency. Allen has never had the biggest leg in the league, but in 2015, he featured an advanced feel for the directional game and outstanding ball control that allowed him to pin opposing returners at will.
This year, Allen’s control seemed to come and go at times, and he also saw a higher percentage of shanks than his previous campaign. His game depends on precision placement, and if he is not able to strike the ball accurately, he does not possess the leg to make up for it on a regular basis. While Allen will occasionally uncork a 60-plus-yard punt, he typically resides in the 46-49-yard range from his own end.
Allen is entering the second year of a three-year extension he signed prior to the start of the 2015 season, and while his job is likely safe heading into the fall, New England may look to move on from him after 2017 if he does not show a rebound in form closer to where he was in 2015.
Team Need: 5/10
Potential Draft Fits: None
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