Tank Rank: Which NBA Teams Are Primed to Strike Gold in Draft Lottery?
Winter is almost officially over, but across the NBA, hibernation season is just getting into full swing.
Toward the top of the standings, teams that have practically wrapped up plum playoff seeds are sitting key players—sometimes on national TV—as they eye long spring slogs to the Larry O'Brien Trophy. On the other end of the spectrum, those whose postseason fates were all but sealed at the trade deadline will spend the remainder of their days evaluating prospects and piling up losses to improve draft positioning, all while healthy veterans rack up "did not play, coaches decision" designations in their finest sideline threads.
There's a term for what those at barrel's bottom are going through: tanking. The players may not be throwing in the proverbial towel, and the coaches won't stop trying to win. But for all intents and purposes, those organizations already eying the May lottery would probably prefer to improve their odds of landing a top-three pick in a talent-laden 2017 draft.
For the time being, teams like the Dallas Mavericks and Minnesota Timberwolves in the West and the Chicago Bulls and Charlotte Hornets in the East—all within four games of a playoff spot—don't quite belong with the tanking crowd. Give them another week or two, and reality may well set in.
Until then, these eight teams, ranked according to what's at stake down the stretch and the lengths to which they're going to achieve their draft-day dreams, are hurtling toward what they hope will be a transformative offseason with far more ferocity than the rest.
8. New Orleans Pelicans
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The New Orleans Pelicans weren't supposed to be here, not after closing a deal for DeMarcus Cousins to conclude All-Star Weekend. Despite that infusion of frontcourt talent and a 100-77 win over the Portland Trail Blazers on Tuesday, the Pelicans, at 26-40, are as close to 14th place in the West as they are to eighth, albeit with fewer teams to leapfrog to get to the bottom.
And there's plenty of incentive for New Orleans to do so. The pick the Pelicans sent to the Sacramento Kings in the Boogie trade is top-three protected. At present, Crescent City's club owns the eighth-worst record in the NBA.
One well-placed slide could nudge the Pelicans past the Knicks and Kings in pursuit of lottery balls. Another might be enough to challenge the Philadelphia 76ers and Orlando Magic for top-five odds of landing one of the three best slots in the 2017 draft.
The team seemed to have a readymade out when Anthony Davis left the game against Portland in the second quarter after rolling his ankle. That left Cousins as the lone star on the floor for New Orleans—which, as ESPN's Justin Verrier noted, hadn't worked so well:
"In the eight prior games in which Cousins has suited up for New Orleans, the Pelicans had thrived with Davis and not Cousins on the court but struggled when Cousins played without Davis. The Pelicans had a 114.4 offensive rating and a plus-8.3 net rating with Davis but no Cousins, but an 87.6 offensive rating and a minus-16.2 net rating with Cousins but no Davis, according to NBA.com/Stats.
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On this night, though, Cousins helped to stretch a five-point lead into a 14-point advantage while Davis was away. Once AD returned, the Pelicans' twin towers displayed a more encouraging on-court chemistry. Afterward, Cousins considered what Boogie-Brow pick-and-roll could accomplish.
"It's hard to stop," Cousins said in reference to the Clippers' screen-roll combo of Blake Griffin and DeAndre Jordan, per Verrier. "If me and A get involved in that, it could be something special as well."
For that to work, the Pelicans will need to add shooters who draw defenders out of the middle. Good luck doing that without a first-rounder and with less than $20 million in cap space this summer, even if Jrue Holiday walks.
7. Brooklyn Nets
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In some respects, the Brooklyn Nets don't belong on this list. What little control they have over their draft-day destiny is limited to the two meetings with the Boston Celtics left on their 2016-17 schedule.
The Nets' 2017 first-round pick is all but signed, sealed and delivered to the C's as recompense for the ill-fated Kevin Garnett-Paul Pierce-Jason Terry trade of 2013. Brooklyn, though, will get Boston's likely late first-rounder as part of a pick swap.
Not to mention, the Nets' 2018 first-rounder will convey to the Celtics outright. That puts Brooklyn into perhaps the most unenviable position of any rebuilding team—if not ever then certainly in the here and now.
To their credit, the Nets have already processed the organization's previous pitfalls, with a clear eye trained on a long road back to relevance.
"It’s funny the situation we are in, without our picks, we never use that as a crutch," head coach Kenny Atkinson told The Vertical's Chris Mannix. "We never talk about the past. We’re talking about getting better in the here and now, and getting better in the future. That’s the only talk that’s around here. We’ve completely put [the past] in a box and are focused on moving forward.”
Atkinson's outlook has helped Brooklyn hone in on the prospects it has on hand. The Bogdanovic deal in particular could yield significant upside on two fronts: the late first-rounder coming from Washington and the expanded opportunity for rookie Caris LeVert, who's averaged 9.6 points on 55.2 percent shooting as a starter since the All-Star break.
This particular group of teams would be incomplete without Brooklyn and its league-worst 12-54 record. But in terms of organizational approach, the Nets seem to be handling their preordained tank job about as well as could be expected.
6. New York Knicks
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The New York Knicks seem reluctant to tank.
Before Tuesday's game against the Indiana Pacers, head coach Jeff Hornacek practically conceded that a playoff run for his team—which entered that night six-and-a-half games back of the East's No. 8 seed with 15 to play—was out of reach.
"We need our guys to get after the ball and handle it a little bit more," Hornacek said, per the New York Daily News' Stefan Bondy. "The playoffs may not be in reach, but this could (be a time) for some of our other guys who might get some time to show what they really can do and build something for next year."
But rather than lay down in front of a Pacers squad with its sights set on the postseason, the Knicks battled back from a 13-point deficit en route to an 87-81 win. The victory, though, was somewhat Pyrrhic. Star sophomore Kristaps Porzingis left the game with a thigh bruise early in the fourth quarter, before New York took control of the outcome.
That injury could be just the cover the Knicks need to turn their full attention toward the draft lottery. Perhaps they'll decide that Porzingis, the most promising jewel in their crooked crown, should take some extra time to rest up to ensure the bruise heals properly and that he doesn't aggravate it through potential contact.
If New York plays its cards right, it could slip into the top five of a loaded draft—a spot from which it could land another young stud without having to rekindle the regrettable rigmarole of trying to poison Carmelo Anthony's well.
5. Orlando Magic
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Four-and-a-half years on, it's safe to say that no team "won" the trade that spirited Dwight Howard away from the Orlando Magic.
The Los Angeles Lakers, who received Howard in the deal, were thrust into a rebuild shortly thereafter and have been stuck there since. The Philadelphia 76ers all but voluntarily leapt into their teardown after Andrew Bynum, their big take from the trade, never played a game for them. The Denver Nuggets, who had Andre Iguodala for one season as a result of the four-team mega-deal, have long since moved past their part in it.
The only team that still has assets from that morass is the Magic. Nikola Vucevic, who was drafted by Philly, is into his fifth season as a double-double machine in Orlando, albeit one who's fluctuated between the starting lineup and the bench in 2016-17. The team will get another first-rounder from the Lakers in 2018 unless L.A. keeps its top-three protected 2017 pick, in which case Orlando's take will convert to two second-rounders.
In the meantime, the Magic are doing more than rearranging deck chairs on the Titanic. By trading away Serge Ibaka ahead of the deadline, they opened up a spot at power forward for Aaron Gordon, who's responded with 15.6 points per game since. Elfrid Payton Jr., whose return to the starting lineup at point guard coincided with Gordon's switch, has tallied three triple-doubles in his last five outings.
Neither of those 2014 draftees is ticketed for superstardom. Nor is Terrence Ross, who seems to have left his shot in Toronto (38.6 percent from the field, 27.3 percent from three with the Magic) since the Raptors dealt him to Orlando in the Ibaka deal.
But the Magic weren't winning games with the way things were before. Now, at least head coach Frank Vogel and his staff, along with the front office, get to see what they have on their hands before heading into a loaded 2017 draft with a potential top-five pick.
4. Phoenix Suns
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In some respects, the Phoenix Suns are doing a terrible job of tanking.
They followed up a three-game skid after the All-Star break by winning three in a row before dropping another three out of four. As Tyson Chandler confirmed to the Arizona Republic's Doug Haller, the veteran center chose to stay with the Suns rather than accept a trade to a winning team when he was given the option:
"That's true. I feel like it’s a journey I started that I want to see through. If things change, I don’t know, but as long as I’m here, I’m going to try and do what’s right by these young fellas. I didn’t want to go nowhere. I wanted to be with these dudes and finish it out.
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Chandler has lent leadership to a roster that ranks among the NBA's youngest, though he hasn't set foot on the floor since the deadline. Neither has 25-year-old Brandon Knight. Instead, the Suns have committed whole cloth to their youth, with Eric Bledsoe, Jared Dudley and Leandro Barbosa as the lone exceptions.
Derrick Jones Jr., of Slam Dunk Contest fame, has been bumped into the starting lineup. Alan Williams, a second-year forward out of UC Santa Barbara, has morphed into a double-double machine off the bench. Tyler Ulis, a second-round rookie, has averaged 8.9 points and 5.3 (against just 1.3 turnovers) while shooting 48.1 percent from the floor—and knocking down a game-winner against the Boston Celtics—since assuming Knight's former spot as Bledsoe's primary backup.
And that's to say nothing of incumbent blue-chippers like Devin Booker, who's shot just under 40 percent from three since the break; rookie Marquese Chriss, who's singed plenty of nets over that same time frame (53.3 percent from the field, 42.1 percent from three); and T.J. Warren, whose ability to get buckets should land him a steady role in the NBA, be it in Arizona or elsewhere.
The Suns, then, have all but followed the tanking handbook line by line. It just so happens that their youthful core is too talented to lose on purpose, and it might be even better next season with a potential top-three pick on the way.
3. Philadelphia 76ers
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The Philadelphia 76ers weren't happy to blow a 16-point lead—and a chance to score with less than 10 seconds to go in the fourth—to the Golden State Warriors in what wound up as a 106-104 loss.
"[I want the players] to be hard on themselves after a loss," Sixers head coach Brett Brown said, per CSNPhilly.com's Jessica Camerato. "That's a good thing. It hurts. It should hurt. We put in the time. We were in a position on the road to try to get a win. We give Golden State credit. I think that Timmy (Luwawu-Cabarrot) and Dario and our young guys will learn from this, but it stings and it should sting."
That sting could fade considerably if defeats like these bear fruit, in terms of both lessons digested now and improved draft position later.
With Joel Embiid done for the season and Ersan Ilyasova off to Atlanta at the trade deadline, Dario Saric has found ample room to shine and emerged as a Rookie of the Year favorite therein. He's scored 25 points or more in three of his last four games, including 25 with seven rebounds, six assists, three steals and two blocks at Golden State.
This late-season run absent Embiid and with Ben Simmons officially joining the ranks of Sixers draft picks who've missed what would've been their rookie season has allowed Philly to evaluate a host of other potential fits.
Timothe Luwawu-Cabarrot (12.3 points on 53.8 percent shooting in his last three starts) has flashed potential as a two-way wing. Jahlil Okafor, the No. 3 pick in 2015, has dutifully assumed the role of starting center since Embiid went down and Nerlens Noel was dealt away, with three games of at least 22 points over that span. His backup, Richaun Holmes, has played much better than a second-stringer (12.6 points on 62 percent shooting, 44.4 percent from three, 6.0 rebounds, 1.5 blocks in his last 11 games).
The Process is still far from complete, but with Embiid and Simmons due back next season, another top-10 pick (or two) to add to the mix in June and other prospects progressing in the interim, the Sixers should soon have the requisite pieces to not only emerge from these dark days but burst right into bright light.
2. Sacramento Kings
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The Sacramento Kings had no choice but to tank once ownership and the front office signed off on the trade that sent DeMarcus Cousins to the Pelicans. Out went the franchise cornerstone. In came a slew of parts (Tyreke Evans, Langston Galloway, rookie Buddy Hield) and, with them, a whole new world order in California's capital.
"I feel like right now, guys don’t know their roles," Kings center Willie Cauley-Stein told Bleacher Report. "That’s why we are the way we are. We’re a brand new team."
The Kings' 107-101 win over the Suns on Monday was just their third since Boogie's exodus. His absence, though, has opened up ample opportunity for the powers that be to see what Cousins' dust left behind.
Hield, who struggled with his shot in New Orleans, has hit nearly half of his threes in Sacramento. Cauley-Stein, once relegated to a prescribed role next to his fellow Kentucky product, has hit double digits on the scoreboard eight times in 11 games, with two 20-10 double-doubles to boot. Skal Labissiere, another former Wildcat, has looked like a bona fide building block in Cousins' wake, with 10.6 points on 60.5 percent shooting with 6.2 rebounds per game.
Better yet, all the losing those youngsters have been a part has practically guaranteed that the Kings will pick twice in the top 10 of a deep draft—with their own pick (or Philly's if the Sixers decide to swap) and the one New Orleans will send over if it lands outside the top three.
At that point, it'll be up to general manager Vlade Divac and team owner Vivek Ranadive, rather than Cousins or some other source of angst, to screw up another rebuild in Northern California.
1. Los Angeles Lakers
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The Los Angeles Lakers have turned tanking into high art since team president Jeanie Buss' stunning front-office shakeup. They're all-in on their youth movement and seem determined to move every veteran out of the way by any means necessary.
According to ESPN's Ramona Shelburne, Luol Deng and Timofey Mozgov—the biggest free-agent signings from what turned out to be Jim Buss and Mitch Kupchak's final offseason in charge of the club's basketball operations—have been shut down for the rest of 2016-17, despite being without significant injury...and are both cool with it.
Nick Young, once hailed for his career revival earlier this season, has been a healthy scratch in L.A.'s last two games to make way for former D-Leaguer David Nwaba. Even 25-year-old Tarik Black, who was the first to assume Mozgov's spot, has been moved back to the bench in favor of the teenager Ivica Zubac.
"This is some outstanding late-season tanking by the Lakers," ESPN's Zach Lowe said on the Lowe Post podcast. "You've got to give it up for them. It's really good. It's really fun stuff."
Not so much from a win-loss standpoint; L.A. has won once since Valentine's Day. But the kids are getting plenty of run.
Brandon Ingram has been starting in Deng's spot. Julius Randle is getting his usual run at power forward, with fellow youngster Larry Nance Jr. backing him up. Head coach Luke Walton has played with switching roles between D'Angelo Russell and Jordan Clarkson. Tyler Ennis, whom the Lakers acquired from the Houston Rockets at the trade deadline, has gotten some long looks, too.
L.A. has every reason to rack up defeats from here on out, beyond just current talent evaluation. As Bleacher Report's Eric Pincus recently explained:
"L.A. owes the Orlando Magic a 2019 first-round pick for Dwight Howard, but that selection is tied to the Lakers' obligation to the Sixers (i.e., if the Lakers land a top-three selection in 2017, they'll also keep their 2019 first-rounder, owing instead a pair of second-rounders to the Magic).
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Thus, by taking the extra step to see if there's a star on the roster now, the Lakers, who own the league's second-worst record, could set themselves up to find one in this year's draft come June.
All quotes obtained firsthand unless otherwise noted. All stats and salary information via NBA.com and Basketball Reference unless otherwise noted.
Josh Martin covers the NBA for Bleacher Report. Follow him on Twitter, Instagram and Facebook, and listen to his Hollywood Hoops podcast with B/R Lakers lead writer Eric Pincus.
