Best and Worst Moves Dallas Cowboys Can Make This Offseason
With the start of the NFL offseason just days away, the Dallas Cowboys have a number of things they will need to address. From signing stars to long-term deals, to handling Tony Romo's departure, the team will be busy as soon as the new league year kicks off on March 9. Below are some of the best and worst moves the Cowboys can make this offseason.
Best: Signing Zack Martin to a Long-Term Deal
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One of the reasons the Cowboys should be cautious in free agency is due to the players who will eventually need long-term deals in Dallas. Players such as David Irving, DeMarcus Lawrence and La'el Collins could all be in line for long-term deals in the near future, but the headliner is All-Pro right guard Zack Martin.
The former Notre Dame offensive lineman will be playing on the last year of his rookie deal in 2017 and will command top dollar once he enters free agency.
The Cowboys will have the option to use the fifth-year extension on Martin, and they will do that as soon as possible. But knowing that Martin is a core piece to the offensive line and to the team, the Cowboys could begin to speak with him and his agents about a long-term deal. If the team decides to invest money this offseason, expect them to do it on their own homegrown players.
Martin finished third in the final NFL1000 rankings, just below Marshal Yanda and Josh Sitton. At just 26, his best football is still ahead of him. Starting every game since entering the league in 2014, Martin is a dominant guard who can play in any scheme. His movement skills allow him to win in space, and his technically sound footwork and hand placement makes him one of the best guards in the league.
If the Cowboys can lock up Martin this offseason for the foreseeable future, it would mean that the three stars on their offensive line (Tyron Smith, Travis Frederick and Zack Martin) would all be locked up through their primes. The Cowboys have shown the tendency in the past few years to lock up their own rather than spend in free agency. This would be the best move the team could make in the offseason.
Worst: Releasing Tony Romo
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One of the biggest mistakes the Cowboys' could make this offseason is simply releasing Tony Romo. Despite gaining $5.1 million in cap space with a release, per Spotrac, that small gain of cap room does not make up for the fact that the team would be losing one of their most valuable assets.
The Cowboys have loyalty to Tony Romo and want to do right by him giving him the chance to choose his next team, but the NFL is a business. When he's playing, he's still a top-10 quarterback in the NFL, and that has real value.
If the Cowboys decide to trade Romo and not release him, there would be teams that would be interested and there would be offers. Here's a quick glance at some of the recent quarterbacks who have been traded and the compensation given:
2016: Eagles traded Sam Bradford to Vikings for a first and fourth-round pick.
2013: 49ers traded Alex Smith to Kansas City for two second-round picks.
2011: Eagles traded Kevin Kolb to Cardinals for a second-round pick.
2010: Eagles traded Donovan McNabb to Redskins for a second and fourth-round pick.
2009: Broncos traded Jay Cutler to Bears for two first-round picks and a third-round pick.
Regardless of where you think Tony Romo ranks among the NFL's best quarterbacks or even if you doubt his ability to hold up for an entire season, there will be a market for him. And there will be a market for him via trade. Lesser quarterbacks have been traded for Day 2 picks.
His contract won't be ideal for the team trading for him, but he's one of the best quarterbacks on the market, and he has proved that. As much as the Cowboys love Tony Romo and want to get him in the right situation, they need to recognize that he's an asset that can be used to help build the remainder of the roster.
Best: Waiting in Free Agency
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One of the best offseason strategies the Cowboys can follow this year is to exercise patience again in free agency. Many will cry out when the team doesn't sign or visit with any of the top players, especially defensive ends.
While the Cowboys clearly have a need at the position, it wouldn't be wise for the team to chase that elite rusher in free agency, such as Jason Pierre-Paul, Chandler Jones or Melvin Ingram.
The best move the team can make is for the market to settle down, typically by the end of March or beginning of April and then start to visit with the remaining rushers. NFL teams get into trouble when they overpay pass-rushers in free agency for one of two reasons; they either overpay for past production or they pay for players who don't fit their scheme.
As well as Jason Pierre-Paul has played in his career, at age 28 with a severe injury history, it's likely that we've already seen his best days in the NFL.
Instead of paying for the 16.5-sack guy we saw in 2011, you are likely paying him top money to be the guy he's been in the past two years with the New York Giants; seven sacks a year. And while he's still a fantastic player, he's not worth the projected $14.6 million dollars annually that he will likely receive, per Spotrac.
The other type of player the Cowboys should pass on are those who've had success on other teams, but don't fit their style of defense. A great example of this is Cardinals defensive end Calais Campbell. In 2016, he graded out as the second-best 3-4 defensive end in the NFL, according to Bleacher Report's NFL1000.
But asking a 6'8", 300 pound 3-4 defensive end to switch positions this late into his NFL career seems unwise. He just doesn't fit anywhere particularly well in Rod Marinelli's 4-3 defense and will likely command $10 million dollars or more annually in free agency. Despite the sacks and the name recognition, the team would be wise to avoid this type of player in free agency.
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Worst: Paying Terrance Williams
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In 2016, the receiver market was set for No. 2 and No. 3 receivers. Former Cincinnati Bengal Marvin Jones was the receiver opposite of A.J. Green, but when he hit free agency, he got paid. Jones received a five-year $40 million dollar contract from Detroit to be their second receiver. The third receiver from the Bengals, Mohammad Sanu, also hit free agency in 2016, and he signed a five-year $32 million dollar deal with the Falcons.
Unfortunately for Dallas and their current salary cap, Terrance Williams has been a better and more productive player over the past four years. He's played in every game since being drafted in 2013, and he's one of the better blockers at the position. He's made a bunch of big plays in important games on the national stage. It's very likely that a team will offer Williams something similar to what Jones and Sanu received in 2016.
Considering how little the Cowboys use their No. 2 receiver (No. 2 receivers in Dallas have only averaged 45.8 catches per season since 2007), it would be wise to let Williams walk in free agency, pick up the compensatory pick in 2018 and draft a player to replace him. It will be a tough call to let a player of Williams' caliber walk, but with cap space so tight, this is a spot the Cowboys don't have to pay.
Best: Re-Signing Morris Claiborne
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The Cowboys are going have to make a choice in free agency in terms of cornerback; should they keep the reliable Brandon Carr or talented, but often injured Morris Claiborne? In the past few seasons, the Cowboys have typically relied on free agents who have proved they can play, rather than the overly talented players who have some sort of issue keeping them off the field.
In 2016, the Cowboys signed Alfred Morris and Cedric Thornton, guys who are known commodities. This overall philosophy probably indicates that the team will choose Carr over Claiborne in free agency. But that could be a mistake.
One rule that every team should use when shopping in free agency is to pay for expected production and not what has happened in the past. Brandon Carr has started every game since joining the team and Claiborne has played about half of the snaps since being drafted in 2012. But Claiborne's future is much brighter because he's likely to ascend as a player as he just turned 27.
He's got the tools to be a lockdown corner and played like one in 2016 when he was on the field. Claiborne graded out as Pro Football Focus' 12th-best cornerback while Bleacher Report graded him as 19th in their final NFL1000 rankings.
Claiborne signed a one-year, $3 million deal in 2016, so a similar deal in 2017 would make sense for both the Cowboys and the player. This would allow him another year to prove that he can stay healthy and can continue to play at a high level when on the field. Letting this massive talent leave in free agency would be a disaster for the team. He is one of, if not the most important free agent the Cowboys have.
Worst: Relying on Jaylon Smith to Start
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Despite all of the positive buzz coming out of Jaylon Smith's camp, it would be foolish for the Dallas Cowboys to solely rely on him in any capacity for the 2017 season. The status of Smith for the season likely won't be known until sometime after the NFL draft. However, the team can't afford to go into training camp not knowing if Smith will ever see the field.
To ensure that Dallas is adequately prepared for the possibility that Smith never enters the lineup, the team needs to address their overall linebacker situation in either the draft or in free agency. Sean Lee is the only starting-caliber linebacker on the team, as Damien Wilson, Anthony Hitchens and Kyle Wilber are all better suited to be role players in the NFL.
To cover themselves, the Cowboys could bring back veteran Justin Durant who is scheduled to hit free agency next month. However, Durant turns 32 at the start of the NFL season and just doesn't have the speed or durability to hold up as an every-down linebacker in today's NFL.
Ideally, the Cowboys could draft another linebacker in the top 100 to play inside linebacker right away for the team and eventually pair him with Jaylon Smith. Or they could try to reel in one of the better inside players in free agency, such as Daryl Smith or Karlos Dansby on a one-year deal.
But, unless there is news that confirms that Jaylon Smith will be 100 percent for OTAs or training camp, the Cowboys need to find a way to at least protect themselves if things don't progress at a quick enough pace.
Best: Re-Sign Terrell McClain
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In 2016, the Cowboys paid former Philadelphia Eagles' defensive tackle Cedric Thornton to be one of their starting defensive tackles (specifically at the 1-technique position). The team gave him a four-year, $17 million dollar contract to be a stable part of their defensive line. However, it wasn't too long into training camp and preseason before Terrell McClain easily beat him out.
Despite missing time with an ankle injury, McClain easily out-snapped Thornton, 465 to 265. Not only did he receive more snaps, he was clearly the better player. According to the final grades of the NFL1000, McClain finished as the 29th-best defensive tackle in the league while Thornton finished 45th. He was the most consistent player on the entire defensive line and was also a difference-maker on the unit.
The problem for the Cowboys and Terrell McClain lies into his value on the market. The team would like to give him a deal that resembles Thornton's deal from a year prior. But how do you justify paying a better player at the same position less money?
It's unlikely the team will want to invest that much cap space into two players who play the same position. Not only that, but of the four defensive line spots on the team, the 1-technique is clearly the least valuable.
When he is healthy, McClain is a massive upgrade over Cedric Thornton. If there is a way the Cowboys can bring him back on a team-friendly deal, it must be done. He's too good a player to let go, especially now that he's found a home and a defense that fits his skill set. Expect the Cowboys to try to retain the former South Florida product.
Worst: Don't Assume You Are One Piece Away
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In the last decade, the Cowboys have had four seasons with at least 11 wins, not including 2016. In the following year, the Cowboys have only had one year with a winning record, 2008. One of the problems the Cowboys have had is building off of their success.
The reason that seems to happen is because the Cowboys often think they are just one piece away. After the 2007 season, the team thought they were one receiver away from going to the Super Bowl. They ended up trading a first and a third-round pick for Roy Williams and signed him to a massive contract.
After the 2014 season, the Cowboys thought they were one pass-rusher away from beating Aaron Rodgers at Lambeau Field. Jerry Jones and Jason Garrett signed off on Greg Hardy, and it set their entire roster back as he just wasn't a fit with the team.
With all the success the Dallas Cowboys enjoyed in 2016, they have to continue to build their team soundly. They don't have to overspend at one position just because it's a need. Don't trade up in the draft, just to make a splash.
Instead, spend wisely and draft the best player that falls to them. It seems simple, but when an owner and general manager feel they are close, it can be awfully hard to resist that overwhelming temptation.
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