5 Problems the Golden State Warriors Must Solve Before Playoff Time
The Golden State Warriors opened last season on a 24-game winning streak. They would need to close this campaign with 27 straight victories to match that group's record-setting win total.
Clearly, the sky is falling. Well, that or the Warriors had a few slight stumbles adjusting to several roster changes, are being careful not to overextend themselves in the regular season and have taken a couple injury hits of late.
The good news: Golden State is once again historically great, sporting an unprecedented point differential of plus-12.6 points per game. The scarier news: There are problem areas in need of cleaning up, meaning the club's ceiling has yet to be reached.
Some issues are bigger than others, and none have seriously threatened their position atop the NBA standings. But if the Dubs want to raise their second championship banner in three years, they could increase their odds by quieting these concerns.
Fourth-Quarter Malfunctions
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The video of Draymond Green harshly criticizing an empty late-game possession by Kevin Durant earlier this season looked worse than it was. Teammates often have heated exchanges, particularly if one of them is as emotional and transparent as Green.
But the frustration was warranted.
"Our fourth-quarter offense has been atrocious, and I don't know if you could see," Green said afterward, per ESPN.com's Chris Haynes. "Everyone only notices in losses, but I actually pay attention to things when we win also."
The Dubs haven't dominated the final frame. While they rank eighth in fourth-quarter net efficiency, they're only at plus-2.3 points per 100 possessions. For context, their overall efficiency is plus-12.5, and a plus-2.3 mark would slot in between the Boston Celtics and Memphis Grizzlies.
To be fair, there's some static in that number. Golden State doesn't play many meaningful fourth quarters, since it holds the highest efficiency rating in the first (plus-15.7), second (plus-11.8) and third (plus-20.4) periods. Green has only logged fourth-quarter minutes 39 times this season, and Stephen Curry has done it on just 37 occasions.
However, when the Warriors have needed to deliver down the stretch, they haven't been themselves. They have only the 11th-highest net rating in the clutch—final five minutes with a margin of five points or fewer. And Golden State's four All-Stars have all shot well below their normal rates in those situations.
Inconsistency in Backup Backcourt
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Here's an honest question: Who is the Warriors backup shooting guard? The answer depends on when you ask.
Rookie Patrick McCaw averaged more minutes than Ian Clark in November. Clark has held the lead since, although the gap has narrowed in February (16.4 for Clark, 15.7 for McCaw). Some of it seems based on need and matchup. Clark is the more natural scorer, while McCaw provides more defensive versatility. And head coach Steve Kerr likes the fact he has options, because he knows they'll need a full deck later on.
"We need to have both Patrick and Ian ready for playoff games," Kerr said, per Connor Letourneau of the San Francisco Chronicle. "We need them both."
While that's true for depth purposes, it seems either one could take control of the role by harnessing the consistency that's eluded both.
Clark did exactly that in December, shooting a blistering 53.7 percent from the field and averaging 18.6 points per 36 minutes. McCaw appeared in the first 12 games of the month and played just once—for five seconds—over the final four. But with Clark cooling off since the calendar changed (39.8 percent), McCaw is right back in the mix.
If Kerr feels he can trust both, that's a bonus for the postseason. But if neither creates separation before then, it's tough to tell who would get the call if an injury forces one into significant action.
Battered on Boards
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The Warriors have suffered four double-digit defeats this season. In those contests, they have lost the rebounding battle 205-144 (62-31 on the offensive glass). They've been on the wrong side of both statistics during all nine of their losses. Overall, they sit just 20th in defensive rebound percentage and 22nd at the other end.
Some of that can be considered a casualty of playing small, but last season's team sacrificed size a lot and still fared better on the boards (15th and 19th, respectively). And this can't be pinned solely on the newcomers. Durant has never collected more rebounds (8.3 per game), while Zaza Pachulia (11.5) and David West (8.5) have set or tied their second-best averages per 36 minutes.
This has more to do with aggression, or rather the lack thereof. The undersized Dubs need to dig in early for prime position and maintain those spots against brawnier bigs. They must use their quickness advantage to beat opponents to 50-50 balls.
"When the shot goes up, you can do one of two things: You can stare at the butterflies in the sky or you can go find a body," Kerr said, per Bay Area News Group's Anthony Slater. "We look at a lot of butterflies."
This challenge could be among their biggest postseason tests. It's already been exploited by potential opponents like the San Antonio Spurs (55-35 edge on opening night), Memphis Grizzlies (25-17 on offensive glass in two victories) and Cleveland Cavaliers (18-5 on offensive boards during Christmas comeback).
Controlling Chaos
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Combine Kerr's free-flowing system with Curry's creativity and on-court courage, and you have the formula for highlight-heavy basketball beauty.
Usually.
But sometimes this squad chases the spectacular play over the simple one. They wouldn't be the best show on hardwood without the approach. But when flashy one-handed passes miss their mark, or behind-the-back bullets fly out of bounds or lofty lobs soar over the intended receiver, the Dubs are effectively taking points off the scoreboard.
This is the most efficient offense the game has ever seen. If the ball is kept in play, there's a good chance it'll wind up in the basket. And yet, outside of injuries, there may not be a bigger threat to Golden State's success than careless turnovers.
"Our biggest issue is taking care of the ball," West told CSN Bay Area's Monte Poole. "We’ve got to be able to take care of the basketball for long periods of time."
There's only so much Kerr can control this. If he tightens the leash too much, he risks ruining their identity. But his players must recognize and appreciate the importances of simplicity and ball security.
MVP Connection
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No teammates have been more scrutinized this season than the former MVPs, Curry and Durant. As Golden State helped KD settle in to his new digs, the early dialogue focused on Curry getting shoved out of the spotlight by his new superstar running mate.
But the pair have found equal footing. Durant has a tiny scoring edge (25.8 to 24.9), while Curry has minuscule leads in field-goal attempts (17.8 to 17.0) and usage percentage (29.0 to 27.9). Curry has rebounded from some uncharacteristic shooting early (hitting 41.8 percent from the field and 42.8 percent outside in 2017), while Durant continues arguably his best all-around season.
Co-existing isn't a question. They trounce teams by 18.2 points per 100 possessions when they share the floor. But that has more to do with their supreme individual talents and ability to leverage the other's offensive threat. They have another level to reach in terms of meshing their abilities.
"The Warriors could, at some point, get the Steph/KD pick-and-roll going," ESPN.com's Ethan Sherwood Strauss. "Theoretically, this is an unstoppable play: two great shooters—one big, one small—forcing defenses to make impossible choices. In reality, it has gone poorly."
Durant is actually shooting worse off Curry's passes (51.1 percent) than he is overall (53.7). Given the gravitational pull Curry has on defenders, that number should improve as they grow more comfortable playing with—not just alongside—one another.
If the KD-Curry combination clicks like it can on paper, the Warriors might be unbeatable.
