San Francisco Giants: 5 Key Questions That Need Answering in Spring Training
After watching their 2016 season end in a bullpen tire-fire, the San Francisco Giants addressed their biggest need by signing closer Mark Melancon to a four-year, $62 million pact.
Melancon also blew up the team's budget, and San Francisco added only backups and fringe roster candidates after that.
The Giants are still a contender, thanks to the best one-two pitching duo in baseball and a strong, largely homegrown position-player core.
They've got pressing questions to answer in the Cactus League, however, including which untested youngster will take over in left field, whether the fifth-starter job will go to a pricey veteran or an unheralded prospect, and how the remade bullpen will fare.
Run a few sprints, take some hacks in the cage and proceed when ready.
What's the Backup Infield Situation?
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Brandon Belt, Joe Panik and Brandon Crawford are locked in at first base, second base and shortstop, respectively. Eduardo Nunez is the likely third baseman with caveats, as we'll discuss momentarily.
As for who will back them up? That's a murkier matter.
Veteran Jimmy Rollins will be in camp on a minor league deal. The 38-year-old former NL MVP was a shell of himself last season, slashing .221/.295/.329 with the Chicago White Sox.
He got a vote of confidence from Giants management.
"That's great veteran depth for us," general manager Bobby Evans said of Rollins on the Giants' flagship station, KNBR (h/t Daniel Mano of the Mercury News). "His presence in the clubhouse and if he's coming off the bench it just gives us strength and [manager Bruce] Bochy options on days to give guys rest."
Kelby Tomlinson, who has hit .299 in 106 games with San Francisco over the past two seasons, is also capable of covering multiple positions. Orlando Calixte, who the Giants grabbed on a minor league deal this winter, likewise boasts defensive versatility, as does 31-year-old Ramiro Pena. Oh, and look, the Giants signed infielder Gordon Beckham to a minor league contract with a spring invite, per Jon Heyman of FanRag Sports.
Then there's postseason hero Conor Gillaspie, who is primarily a third baseman but has the inside track on a 25-man roster spot.
Assuming they go with five outfielders, the Giants will probably have room for only two spare infielders. Rollins and Gillaspie are the nominal favorites, especially since Tomlinson still has options. But any of the above can make a case with a scalding spring.
Is Eduardo Nunez the Answer at Third Base?
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OK, back to Nunez. The 29-year-old filled up the stat sheet in 2016, setting career highs in doubles (24), home runs (16), RBI (67) and stolen bases (40) and making his first All-Star team.
A lot of that production came with the Minnesota Twins. Nunez wasn't awful after arriving in San Francisco at the trade deadline, but his average fell 30 points and his slugging percentage dipped 21 points.
That's no shock. Minnesota's Target Field ranked in the middle of the pack in terms of homer-friendliness, according to ESPN's Park Factors statistic, while AT&T Park ranked dead last.
Of course, Nunez doesn't need to be a slugger to have value. His speed is a slump-proof asset, and he's a solid contact hitter.
He's a mediocre defender, though, with minus-five career defensive runs saved at third. If his offense sinks, it'll take his value down with it.
The Giants could turn to Gillaspie, a former San Francisco prospect who returned to do big things in October while Nunez was nursing a hamstring injury. To apply a wet blanket: Gillaspie's .256/.309/.397 line in 469 big league games is probably more instructive than his 19 postseason plate appearances.
San Francisco is also taking a chance in left field (more on that soon). Add third base, and that's two key power positions shrouded in uncertainty. Not a great look for a team that finished third-to-last in home runs in 2016.
Who's the Fifth Starter?
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The short answer: probably Matt Cain.
The longer answer: The Giants will give Cain every opportunity to win the fifth-starter job. He's the longest-tenured player on the roster and was an absolute stud between 2007 and 2012, when he made three All-Star teams, had two top-10 Cy Young Award finishes and threw a perfect game.
Cain hasn't posted a sub-4.00 ERA since 2012, however, while battling an array of injuries. After posting a 5.81 ERA through 17 starts in 2016, he was exiled to the bullpen in September and didn't pitch in the postseason.
He's owed $21 million in 2017, which means if he's healthy and not a complete gas can, he'll slot into the starting five behind Madison Bumgarner, Johnny Cueto, Jeff Samardzija and Matt Moore.
"I expect him to come in camp probably in the best shape he's ever been in, as determined as ever to win that spot in the rotation," Bochy said of Cain, per John Shea of the San Francisco Chronicle. "This is his last year on this deal, and I've got to think he’s hungry to get back to who he was and be part of the rotation."
If Cain falters, Ty Blach will be waiting.
The 26-year-old lefty wasn't on any top prospect radars when he debuted with the Giants last season, but he posted a 1.06 ERA in four appearances and two starts, including eight shutout innings in a must-win game Oct. 1 against the Los Angeles Dodgers.
Blach could stick on the roster as a long man, but look for him to push Cain in the spring and get the first audition if a rotation spot opens up.
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Is Left Field Taken Care Of?
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The Giants featured in trade rumors surrounding Detroit Tigers left fielder J.D. Martinez, with MLB Network's Jon Morosi reporting in November the two sides had talked.
Those discussions never progressed, though, and San Francisco didn't pull the trigger on any of the winter's other impact outfielders.
Instead, the team will roll with the untested tandem of Mac Williamson and Jarrett Parker.
The 26-year-old Williamson posted a .223/.315/.411 slash line in 54 games for the Giants last season but boasts an .855 OPS in five MiLB seasons. In a small big league sample, he owns a 4.4 Ultimate Zone Rating and four defensive runs saved in left, per FanGraphs.
Parker, who turned 28 in January, slashed .236/.358/.394 in 63 games for the Giants in 2016 and has amassed an .823 OPS in six minor league seasons. Again, small sample alert, but the metrics don't adore his play in left field, as his minus-2.7 UZR and minus-1 DRS attest.
Williamson swings from the right side and Parker from the left, so they could platoon, with speedy Gorkys Hernandez also getting starts.
The Giants have a history of turning unheralded prospects into above-average big leaguers. Crawford, Panik and departed third baseman Matt Duffy all followed that path.
McCovey Chronicles' Grant Brisbee made the same point but followed it, correctly, with this:
"...this isn’t the best season in which to gamble with a position that’s usually reserved for sluggers, thumpers, and whompers. The Giants are close, real close, to having an elite roster on paper. Their best hitters are all turning 30 this year or next. Johnny Cueto is almost certainly going to opt out of his contract at the end of the season. If there were ever a season to go, go, go for it, this is the one.
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If Parker and Williamson wobble, there's always the trade deadline. If one of them turns out to be another Crawford, Panik or Duffy, well, it'll be cap-tippin' time.
Until then, the Giants will cross their fingers and watch closely in Scottsdale.
Will the New-Look Bullpen Do the Job?
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Santiago Casilla signed with the Oakland A's. Sergio Romo signed with the Dodgers (sorry, Giants fans, I'll give you a second). Javier Lopez retired.
With that, the Giants lost the remaining members of the remarkably stable bullpen they carried through the even-year championship runs of 2010, 2012 and 2014.
The new group, which includes several returning arms, has a lot to live up to.
It begins with Melancon, who isn't a strikeout artist but has been one of the game's best closers over the last three seasons, saving 131 games and posting ERAs of 1.90, 2.23 and 1.64.
Hard-throwing Hunter Strickland and Derek Law, who posted a 2.13 ERA in 55 innings as a rookie last season, will share right-handed setup duties.
Will Smith, acquired at the 2016 trade deadline, should be the primary left-hander while inspiring his share of bad Fresh Prince jokes.
Righties Cory Gearrin and George Kontos and lefties Josh Osich and Steven Okert will be factors, as will Blach if he doesn't crack the rotation.
It's a solid group on paper, with a nice mixture of youth, experience, velocity and finesse.
Bullpens are fickle things, though. The Giants will be keeping a close eye on theirs this spring, defining roles and adjusting expectations. It's the end of one relief era—and the beginning of another.
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