Atlanta Hawks Complete 2016-17 NBA Season Preview
"My goal is to start as point guard. If this doesn't happen, I will look for other opportunities," Dennis Schroder told German paper Bild during an October 2015 interview (as translated by Sportando). "The [Atlanta] Hawks are a great team, the city is nice and everything is perfect now. [Jeff] Teague? He was an All-Star, and he helped me a lot. I must be patient and work hard, and eventually I'll have my opportunities."
Sometimes, dreams really do come true.
Following the Hawks' decision to trade Jeff Teague to the Indiana Pacers, the franchise's hopes are inextricably tethered to the growth of Dennis Schroder—the new, unquestioned starter. Even though this Atlanta roster features plenty of holdovers from the previous season (48-34, which earned the Eastern Conference's No. 4 seed) and the record-setting bunch that won 60 games in 2014-15, Schroder's presence in the starting lineup ushers in a new era.
Head coach Mike Budenholzer will still emphasize his ball-sharing philosophy, but having a point guard who thrives through individual creation forces offensive change. So too does the departure of longtime centerpiece Al Horford and the nearly simultaneous addition of Dwight Howard.
Biggest Offseason Move
The Teague trade opened up a chance for Schroder to grow in a starting role. The first-round additions of Taurean Prince (No. 12) and DeAndre' Bembry (No. 21) in the 2016 NBA draft were also part of the haul that earned the Hawks a "B" on our draft-day report card.
But nothing matters more than the decision to let Al Horford walk to the Boston Celtics and replace him with a big man who's failed to meet lofty expectations in Los Angeles and Houston. Howard is still a future Hall of Famer*, but the Hawks now need him to experience a career resurgence as he returns home.
According to NBA Math's Total Points Added, Howard was far less effective than Horford in 2015-16. Frankly, it wasn't particularly close on either end of the court:
But Howard has the upside the Hawks desire at the 5. If his back is healthy and he's fully motivated, he can protect the rim with aplomb and carry this defense back into the upper echelon. And while he'll never be a dominant post-up player, his pick-and-roll skills alone make him a threatening offensive presence.
Plus, the Hawks are already trying to expand his game. It didn't take long for respected shooting coach Chris Matthews to post this on Twitter:
If Howard can add to his range and replicate some of Horford's pick-and-pop action, it would be a tremendous boon to the Atlanta offense. But even if he sticks to his old tricks, he's talented enough to ensure there's not a huge drop-off in the wake of Horford's departure.
*Seriously, the Orlando Magic portion of his resume alone should shepherd him into Springfield. He won Defensive Player of the Year three times (joining Dikembe Mutombo and Ben Wallace as one of only three to do so), finished top-five in MVP voting during four different seasons and carried his team to the 2009 NBA Finals. Basketball-Reference.com's Hall of Fame Probability gives him a 99 percent chance of entry—No. 9 among active players—and his career isn't even close to finished.
Rotation Breakdown
The starting lineup isn't up for debate: Schroder and Howard are locks, as is the team's best player, Paul Millsap. Joining those three will be Kyle Korver and Kent Bazemore, especially since the latter is now operating on a four-year deal worth $70 million.
We don't yet know how well all five will function together, but nbawowy.com does show that the Schroder-Korver-Bazemore-Millsap quartet produced an offensive rating of 112.3 (would've ranked No. 3 in the season-long standings) and a defensive rating of 99.5 (No. 2) in its 109 shared minutes. That's great news, even if the vast majority of those minutes also featured Horford.
It's only when we begin to look at the backups that things get tricky:
| Dennis Schroder | Kyle Korver | Kent Bazemore | Paul Millsap | Dwight Howard |
| Jarrett Jack | Tim Hardaway Jr. | Thabo Sefolosha | Mike Scott | Tiago Splitter |
| Malcolm Delaney | DeAndre' Bembry | Taurean Prince | Kris Humphries | Walter Tavares |
The primary reserves should be the veterans, as long as they've all healed up from last year's injuries.
Jarrett Jack was having a solid season for the Brooklyn Nets before tearing his ACL—his shooting percentages are misleadingly low, given his ability to control an offense and create for himself. But he should be ready by the start of the new campaign.
Tiago Splitter is in a similar boat after offseason hip surgery, but he should now have a chance to redeem himself after a lackluster initial go-round in Atlanta. Throw in Tim Hardaway Jr., Thabo Sefolosha and Mike Scott, and you have a solid second unit. Of course, the Hawks will still hope the likely third-stringers develop quickly and begin maximizing their potential in bigger roles by the time the season's opening salvo is behind them.
Reasons for Confidence
Everything begins with Budenholzer, who Bleacher Report's Dan Favale recently ranked as the No. 4 head coach in the NBA:
"Budenholzer's stock might seem like it's due to dip after the Hawks dropped from sixth to 18th in offensive efficiency and bowed out in the second round without much resistance. But it's not.
Atlanta is in better shape than when Budenholzer first arrived. The offense lagged last season for a number of reasons, including three-point shooting regression, but only the Warriors posted a higher assist rate. And most of its drop-off on that end was made up on defense, where Atlanta finished second in points allowed per 100 possessions.
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The system Budenholzer has implemented since leaving the San Antonio Spurs is the lifeblood of the Hawks, on both ends of the floor.
His ball-sharing ideology maximize the talents of wings who previously filled smaller roles (see: Carroll, DeMarre and Bazemore, Kent), and that offers hope for immediate impact from the many young 2s and 3s on this roster. His defensive schemes have even facilitated Korver's growth into a defensive asset (No. 6 among shooting guards in ESPN.com's Defensive Real Plus/Minus last year), helping the Hawks look impregnable when everyone is filling the proper lanes.
At least during the regular season, everything he's done seems to work. But he's not the only massive positive, since Millsap is still present.
Though the 31-year-old power forward could soon begin slipping down the NBA's ranks, he played well enough in 2015-16 that he enters the upcoming season ranked No. 10 in the B/R NBA 200. That's by no means a ridiculous placement for a true Defensive Player of the Year candidate who also sparked the offense on a nightly basis. According to NBA Math's TPA, his spot in the countdown is perfect:
As long as Millsap keeps playing at an All-Star level and the schemes remain similar, the Hawks will be able to stave off declines as they fight through the departures of Teague and Horford.
Reasons for Concern
Even if we assume the age of core rotation members won't yet hamper the Hawks' success—Howard, Millsap, Korver, Sefolosha, Splitter, Jack and Kris Humphries are all in their 30s—schematic alterations might.
Atlanta simply can't play the same type of basketball with Howard replacing Horford and Schroder filling in for Teague. It trailed only the Spurs in defensive rating last season, but that preventing prowess was predicated upon the starting bigs. The Hawks loved funneling everything toward Millsap and Horford, then collapsing around the ball-handler and cutting off the lanes for every outlet pass.
As ESPN.com's Zach Lowe explained:
"They have perhaps the best power forward-center duo in the league in Al Horford and Paul Millsap, and Budenholzer reconfigured his Popovichian defensive system around their speed. Atlanta unleashes its big men to trap ball handlers around the 3-point arc on the pick-and-roll, confident Horford and Millsap can corral those little guys -- and then scamper back toward their original assignments.
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That system doesn't work without Horford's dual ability to protect the hoop and play away from the basket, and Howard has never performed in such a role. He's a force on the interior, but coaches have rarely asked him to step away from his preferred zones in favor of pestering ball-handlers around the three-point arc.
And the concerns don't end there. Not only does Howard lack the passing and shooting skills necessary to replace Horford as an offensive hub from the elbows, but Teague and Schroder have never played the same game.
The old starter preferred to operate in a pick-and-roll setting where he could either swing the ball around or get to the hoop and finish plays for himself with a vast array of touch shots. His replacement tends to commandeer possessions, thriving when he's allowed to dribble and probe for an opportunity to use his rocket-fueled bursts to the hoop.
That leaves the Hawks with two options: ask Schroder to play more like Teague and hope the results are beneficial, or fundamentally change the offensive schemes that have granted Atlanta its distinct identity under Budenholzer.
Player to Watch
The Hawks have bet their future on Schroder's development, and they'll ultimately rise or fall with his play. Especially following an ACL injury, Jack is nothing more than a solid backup, and Malcolm Delaney hasn't proved anything at the NBA level.
Fortunately for Atlanta, it's not hard to see why the front office was tempted into this gamble.
For all the over-dribbling and ill-advised defensive gambles, he's flashed potential as a game-changing presence. During his first three NBA seasons, he's taken over contests as a scoring threat and forced the coaching staff to play the hot hand over the established starter down the stretch. His quickness also bodes well for his stopping ability, as long as he can become more disciplined.
Even with Teague on the roster in 2015-16, the Hawks were better with Schroder on the floor:
He's also become a per-minute stud, joining Stephen Curry, James Harden, Chris Paul, John Wall and Russell Westbrook as one of only six qualified players to average more than 19 points, four rebounds and seven assists per 36 minutes. How's that for good company?
But Schroder has experienced this success in limited doses. He's never lead a team from start to finish or played much more than 20 minutes per contest. Thriving as the unquestioned starter is an entirely different proposition, particularly with the inevitable give-and-take between his preferred style and the Hawks' success operating with their own schemes.
Atlanta is opening the box and looking at Schroder's cat for itself. No longer will it remain uncertain about whether its future features death lottery finishes or life championship-caliber play with him as the leading 1-guard.
Predictions
According to B/R Insights, only the Spurs have made the playoffs in more consecutive seasons (19) than the Hawks (nine). Neither streak is ending quite yet, but these Hawks admittedly aren't as dangerous as the previous two iterations.
The 60-win squad from 2014-15 was the best unit in this franchise's modern history, and last year's 48-win bunch stood out as a dominant defensive group that could knock down enough jumpers to hang in there.
Though this version is still strong, it won't be nearly as threatening unless Howard experiences a career resurgence and Schroder validates Atlanta's decision to promote him.
Even as the Eastern Conference's lower half improves, the Hawks remain a tier above. They have too much talent, too much quality coaching and too much depth to miss out on the playoffs, though they'll struggle to decisively earn home-court advantage in the postseason's opening round this time.
Final Record: 45-37
Division Standing: 2nd
Playoff Berth: Yes
B/R League-Wide Power Rankings Prediction: No. 12
Unless otherwise indicated, all stats are from Basketball-Reference.com, NBA.com or NBA Math.
Adam Fromal covers the NBA for Bleacher Report. Follow him on Twitter @fromal09.
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