Breaking Down How Al Horford Fits After Signing with Boston Celtics
Al Horford, one of the prized free agents of this year’s class, announced his decision to join the Boston Celtics on Twitter.
The timing of the tweet threw everyone for a loop, even Adrian Wojnarowski of the Vertical. Horford’s announcement came just four minutes after this tweet:
According to several sources, including Wojnarowski, the agreement is for a full, four-year, $113 million max contract. What precipitated the change of heart is still uncertain, but it is intriguing that it took place not long after Kevin Durant's meeting with Boston reached its conclusion.
It’s also worth mentioning that the Celtics retain the cap space to offer Durant a max contract, even after acquiring Horford.
Also, bear in mind, Durant had been recruiting Horford to join him in OKC, per Woj.
So…intrigue abounds. While Durant-to-Boston remains a possibility, that’s all it is for now. From here forward, we'll focus on the Celtics as currently constructed.
Storylines
The Celtics took a huge step forward in landing Horford, getting the big man they wanted.
It was a classic case of, "If you can't beat them, get them to join you," as Boston was defeated by Horford's Hawks in last season's playoffs.
Probably the only free agent that would help them more is Durant.
The Hawks had a full five-year, $136 million offer to him, Brian Windhorst of ESPN reported, but apparently, the extra money and year weren’t appealing enough to Horford.
Wojnarowski added that the Wizards' talent was more appealing to Horford, but the Wiz didn’t have enough room to offer him the full max.
While Horford makes the Celtics a much better team, he doesn’t make them a contender to put them over the champion Cleveland Cavaliers.
However, the Celtics still have Jaylen Brown, taken with the No. 3 pick in the draft, next year’s unprotected Brooklyn Nets pick, a host of young players and other assets.
Celtics GM Danny Ainge tried hard to make a deal to land a star player such as Jimmy Butler before the draft, but felt the price was too high. With Horford in the fold now, he might feel it’s worth paying more to get the chance at the title.
Whether it’s Durant or Butler or someone else, something is likely to happen. The Celtics have too much opportunity and incentive to upgrade an already-improved roster that won 48 games last year not too keep working for it, and the rumors will be fast and furious from Beantown.
X’s and O’s
Horford immediately makes Boston better on both sides of the ball.
As I wrote before, the best thing about him is that while he may not be the best at any one aspect of the game, he’s very good at everything:
"You may have heard the phrase, “A jack of all trades is a master of none.” That has a bit of a negative connotation. It’s supposed to be, “A jack of all trades is a master of none, but oftentimes better than a master of one.”
That’s the perfect way to describe Horford.
He can put the ball on the floor (99 unassisted field goals this year, according to NBA.com) and score inside (62.7 field-goal percentage within 10 feet) or from deep (35.1 percent behind the arc). Over the last three seasons, he is the only player to average over 25 points, 10 rebounds, five assists and two blocks per 100 possessions while shooting over 50 percent from the field. Additionally, he posted a 2.07 defensive real plus/minus this year, per ESPN.com.
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The addition of Horford gives the Celtics a little bit of everything they need. While they had the sixth-best defensive rating last season, according to NBA.com, none of their bigs were legitimate "rim protectors."
According to Seth Partnow’s rim-protection stats at Nylon Calculus, Horford saved 4.24 points per game at the rim last season, which is better than Kelly Olynyk’s 3.37, who is first among returning Celtics.
Offensively, he’s the second-best scorer on the team now, behind Isaiah Thomas.
He averaged 3.0 field goals inside the restricted area. Amir Johnson’s 2.3 was most among Celtic bigs. Couple that with his three-point shooting, and Horford becomes an excellent second option to Thomas. And by becoming that, he adds “depth from the top down” as the saying goes.
Fit and Finish
Brad Stevens is the head coach of the Boston Celtics, and in his first three seasons, he has established that he’s one of the better coaching minds in the NBA.
What Stevens does very well is utilize his player’s strengths while hiding their weaknesses. His teams are perennially better than the sum of their parts. And that’s what makes Horford's utilitarian skillset such a great fit in Boston.
When the Celtics want to play big, Stevens can devise schemes where Horford plays the traditional center, and can team him with Johnson to make a tough-minded interior defense. When Stevens wants to stretch the court, he can play his new toy alongside three-point shooter Jonas Jerebko.
Want to go small? Play Jae Crowder at power forward, where he had a 57.6 true shooting percentage and run Horford with a combination of Avery Bradley, Thomas and Marcus Smart or James Young.
The malleability of Stevens’ thinking and the versatility of Horford are mashed potatoes and gravy, peanut butter and jelly, chocolate and peanut butter. They just have to go together.
And of course, all this is just based on the roster they have.
The other aspect of the fit here is that by signing Horford, Boston becomes that much more attractive to other free agents who are still making up their minds. Even if that’s not Durant, the Celtics are arguably the most attractive team to players still on the market.
If there’s a cup of cold water to pour on this, it’s that they still need that guy—the superstar caliber player who can carry them to the Promised Land.
But if you are that guy, and you’re looking for a ready-built team that you can call your very own, all you have to do is climb in and start driving.
You’re not going to find a better situation than the Celtics right now.
Stats provided by NBA.com or Nylon Calculus.
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