If the NFL Is a QB-Driven League, the Broncos Are in Trouble in the AFC West

The NFL is a quarterback-driven league. It's a mantra that is repeated ad nauseum on television, the radio, online and in print.

Yes, print. Newspapers are still a thing. I rather like them.

It's also a mantra that many NFL teams apparently subscribe to. If they didn't, we wouldn't have seen first the Los Angeles Rams and then the Philadelphia Eagles mortgage their futures just for a chance to acquire the mythical "franchise quarterback."

If this mantra is true—if teams in the National Football League will go only as far as their quarterbacks carry them, then the reigning AFC West (and Super Bowl) champion Denver Broncos are in trouble.

Because where that franchise signal-caller is concerned, the Broncos are the odd man out in their division.

With the unexpected departure of Brock Osweiler in free agency (to Houston at a robust $18 million per season) and the not-so-unexpected retirement of Peyton Manning (who apparently hasn't retired from commercials), John Elway and the Broncos spent a good portion of the offseason in scramble mode under center.

Get it? John Elway? Scramble mode? Ha! I kill me!

There was at least one report or rumor regarding just about every passer available. As ESPN's Adam Schefter reported, via ESPN.com news services, the Broncos inquired about Ryan Fitzpatrick before deciding his price tag was too high. Per Greg Bedard of Sports Illustrated, a trade was essentially worked out that would have landed Colin Kaepernick in Denver before it fell apart over him taking a pay cut.

Since that flurry of predraft speculation, things have become clearer at quarterback for the Broncos.

Denver appears to have (it hopes) brought in its quarterback of the future, due to a small trade up at the end of the first round of the 2016 draft. With that move, the Broncos selected Paxton Lynch of Memphis, a 6'7", 244-pound cannon with legs who Mike Mayock of NFL Network wrote has "elite arm talent and athletic ability."

As Bleacher Report's Cecil Lammey reported, it is a pick that left head coach Gary Kubiak grinning like the Cheshire Cat in the days after the draft:

"

I tell you honestly for me I am just excited for the kid. I’m just very happy for him, I think this kid, John and I talked about him last night, we love his energy, he has a passion for the game, he is young coming out and I think this growth is going to take place quickly and I can’t wait to get started next week.

"

Kubiak also took exception to the prevailing wisdom Lynch, who played exclusively in the shotgun in Memphis' spread offense, is likely looking at a year (at least) as a clipboard-toter before taking the reins.

No, Kubiak said, Lynch will be afforded every chance to win the starting job in training camp:

"

Yeah, I mean they’re all going to compete. Everybody competes, and I’m expecting him to come in here and make up some ground really quick. But I think it’s a great group to go to work with. I know [quarterbacks coach/passing game coordinator Greg Knapp] and [offensive coordinator Rick Dennison] are very excited about him, so we’ve got to make up as much ground as we can.

"

Elway toed a similarly optimistic line while talking to Denver Sports 760 AM:

In no way am I criticizing the pick itself. The Broncos got much better value with Lynch at No. 26 than the Rams with Jared Goff (No. 1) or the Eagles with Carson Wentz (No. 2). In a few years, we may well be talking about Lynch as the best quarterback to come from the class of 2016.

The problem, as Bleacher Report's Mike Tanier pointed out, is that it's all but certainly going to take that few years (just as it did with Osweiler) to know:

"

They put themselves in such a desperate situation that they had to trade up to select an extremely long-range, moderately high-risk project at quarterback. Lynch could be as good as or better than Brock Osweiler in three years. But the Broncos may spend three years wondering why they didn't just pay Osweiler for three years to stay in the thick of the Super Bowl picture.

"

Realistically speaking, if the Broncos are going to defend their title—if the team is going to make any real postseason noise in 2016—it's going to come with their new quarterback of the present leading the offense.

That quarterback? Mark Sanchez.

Yes, that Mark Sanchez.

Why are you laughing? I'm serious!

When the Broncos signed the 29-year-old Sanchez in the midst of all their turmoil at the position, most thought him to be the stopgap-est stopgap who ever stopped a gap. Surely the team was going to add another veteran like Kaepernick or Fitzpatrick.

Well, after those machinations proved fruitless, the stopgap has now become the presumptive starter. And there are those, including wide receiver Emmanuel Sanders, per Jeff Legwold of ESPN.com, who think that's just fine:

"

(He’s made) a great impression. I can’t speak for everyone else, but I can speak for myself ... I was impressed by his arm strength. I was impressed with the throws he was making. I’ve been here around the locker room and he’s been spending extra time in the facility. That’s the type of guy that we need. It’s going to be fun.

"

Sure, Sanchez has had his moments in the NFL. He led the New York Jets to consecutive AFC Championship Games in his first two NFL seasons in 2009 and 2010. Sanchez started eight games for the Eagles as recently as 2014, winning half those starts for a team that finished the year 10-6.

On his good days, Sanchez is an above-average NFL quarterback.

On his bad days, he's this:

To be blunt, Sanchez turns the ball over. A lot. In 75 career games, Sanchez has tossed 84 interceptions. Add in 24 fumbles lost and you're talking about nearly 1.5 turnovers a game.

And as one veteran defensive coach told ESPN.com's Mike Sando, that means trouble at Mile High.

"They might go 9-7," the coach said. "They are not a defending Super Bowl champion as much as they are a defending get-by, ride-the-defense team. This isn't Seattle or New England."

In fact, the trouble goes well past the defense of their Super Bowl title. Given the hole the Broncos are in at quarterback relative to the rest of their division, the problem might be making the playoffs at all.

The San Diego Chargers might not be a legitimate threat to win the West, but in Philip Rivers, the Chargers have an experienced, Pro Bowl-caliber passer capable of beating any team on any given day. Let's put it this way—if Rivers was in Denver and Sanchez was in San Diego, I'd be asking whether the Broncos would lose a game and who the Chargers might take with the No. 1 pick in 2017.

The Oakland Raiders are a young team on the rise, led by a quarterback in Derek Carr who posted a passer rating over 90 and a plus-19 touchdown-to-interception ratio during a breakout second season in 2015. While the Broncos were losing key contributors like Malik Jackson, Osweiler and Danny Trevathan in free agency, the Raiders were adding players like guard Kelechi Osemele and safety Reggie Nelson.

Then there's the Kansas City Chiefs, who finished only one game out of first place last season. Say what you will about Alex Smith. Call him the dreaded "game manager." But here are a couple of numbers to chew on:

• plus-41: Smith's touchdown-to-interception ratio over three years in Kansas City. By weight of comparison, Sanchez's over his past three campaigns (not counting 2013, when he didn't play) is minus-two.
• 68-52-1: Smith's record as a starting quarterback. In Kansas City, it's an even more impressive 30-16. The last year Sanchez won more starts than he lost? 2010.

Add a shrinking gap at the other positions to a widening gap under center, and as one NFL coordinator told Sando, you get a much tighter AFC West race in 2016:

"

Oakland is going to pick up those wins they (the Broncos) don't get, and Kansas City will still be in the same win bracket. At least they have the optimism in the building with the second quarterback, the rookie. There is some certainty to where they are going in the future, which is halfway brilliant considering the situation they just went through with Manning and Osweiler. It sucks because you've been a Super Bowl team, but it is the best they could do.

"

Is the Broncos' run of five straight AFC West titles finished? Are the Broncos doomed? Of course not. Despite the personnel losses on defense, the team remains among the league's very best on that side of the ball. It was the defense that carried the team a year ago, as Manningweiler (or Osanning, dealer's choice) was hardly the second coming of Joe Montana.

Still, asking a defense to carry a team to the Super Bowl is one thing. Asking it to do it twice is another altogether. The 2001 Baltimore Ravens were blown out in the divisional round after riding their defense to a dominant win in Super Bowl XXXV. Ditto for the 1986 Chicago Bears, although they did win 14 games after assembling arguably the greatest single-season team of all time the year before.

Like it or not, that's the path the Broncos appear headed down. A dominant defensive team whose dreams of a dynasty will be done in by the offense's inability to keep up. A team facing a difficult battle just to recapture its division in no small part because at the most important position in the NFL, the Broncos find themselves at a significant disadvantage.

Unless, of course, Lynch is a whole lot more ready for the big stage than even Elway thinks.

Gary Davenport is an NFL analyst at Bleacher Report and a member of the Fantasy Sports Writers Association and the Pro Football Writers of America. You can follow Gary on Twitter @IDPSharks.