2016 NBA Free Agents Who Missed the Playoffs, Not the Payday
Watching the playoffs unfold from home or in the stands as an NBA player is the worst. There are no exceptions.
Unless you're about to enter free agency.
Painful pangs of absent opportunity are easy to stamp out when you're galloping toward an imminent payday—infinitely so when that payoff will come amid an unprecedented salary-cap eruption.
Some prospective free agents would nevertheless prefer to have gained playoff entry, viewing the additional games as an opportunity to drive up their offseason value. But that line of thinking, though admirable, doesn't always work.
Certain players actually end up damaging their own stock during postseason campaigns. Just ask DeMar DeRozan. Or Dwight Howard. Or Marvin Williams. Or—well, you get the point.
Missing the playoffs isn't something to celebrate by any means. But for notable free agents who spent the regular season maximizing their summertime price tag, it's not exactly something to condemn, either.
Notable Exclusions
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Pau Gasol, Chicago Bulls (player option)
Did Pau Gasol lead the Chicago Bulls in player efficiency rating? Yes.
Is he the first player since Kevin Garnett in 2003-04 to tally 16 points, 11 rebounds, four assists and two blocks per game? Again, yes.
Is he also nearing his 36th birthday, a lock to leave the Bulls and most definitely going to sign with a contender at a steep, I-see-the-money-but-don't-really-feel-it discount? Yes, yes and yes.
Rajon Rondo, Sacramento Kings
Rajon Rondo is an honorable mention because it's time to give the entire NBA, non-Sacramento Kings sector, the benefit of the doubt.
Though Rondo is now the only player other than Magic Johnson to average at least 11 points, 11 assists and six rebounds while shooting 35 percent from deep, he didn't move Sacramento's statistical needle. He was a wash on offense and a defensive minus, which is not the kind of value smart teams will be looking for in starting point guards.
If Rondo earns a substantial raise from the $9.5 million he took home this season, it will be a real shock. Or mean the Kings, Kings-ed.
Ish Smith, Philadelphia 76ers
Ish Smith averaged 15.6 points, 4.9 rebounds, 8.1 assists and 1.4 steals per 36 minutes during stints with the New Orleans Pelicans and Philadelphia 76ers. Chris Paul, John Wall and Russell Westbrook are the only other players who cleared those statistical benchmarks.
And while that bodes well for Smith, it's not everything. He stat-stuffed for a sorry Sixers squad, is a below-average finisher around the rim and plays a hyper-competitive position for which there aren't many vacancies.
Show me a team that thinks Smith is worth an obscene amount of money, and I'll show you the Indiana Pacers a franchise that's about to be disappointed in its lucrative investment.
Ryan Anderson, New Orleans Pelicans
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Age: 28
Free-Agency Status: Unrestricted
2015-16 Per-Game Stats: 17.0 points, 6.0 rebounds, 1.1 assists, 0.6 steals, 42.7 percent shooting
Ryan Anderson missed the last 14 games of the regular season with a left groin injury. He spent the rest of the year pumping in points for a substandard Pelicans offense and playing minimal defense. Those are factors that should adversely impact his free-agency value.
They won't, of course. But they should.
Sweet-shooting bigs remain sexy commodities as the NBA continues its intense dalliance with offensive spacing. And Anderson is a career 37.7 percent shooter from three-point range who lived up to his job description in 2015-16.
He put down 36.6 percent of his triples and was scarier off the catch, touching twine on 37.4 percent of his catch-and-shoot looks. His defensive limitations pose issues at a power forward position that's welcoming more and more playmakers, but those warts are mitigated when facing traditional 4s or stashing him on lumbering 5s.
It's actually a little frightening to think about how much coin Anderson will command on an open market that's short on star power and will overpay anyone resembling high-end talent. A divorce from New Orleans, as such, feels like a formality. The Pelicans already owe more than $36 million to Alexis Ajinca, Omer Asik and Anthony Davis next season, and Anderson could fetch north of $15 million annually in his next contract.
Fans of the Detroit Pistons are free to cross their fingers in hopes he gives coach-president Stan Van Gundy, Anderson's head honcho in Orlando, an I-know-you discount.
Bradley Beal, Washington Wizards
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Age: 22
Free-Agency Status: Restricted
2015-16 Per-Game Stats: 17.4 points, 3.4 rebounds, 2.9 assists, 1.0 steals, 44.9 percent shooting
Remember when saying "Kevin Durant will not leave the Oklahoma City Thunder for the Washington Wizards" was considered a hot take? Now it's a foregone conclusion—a recognized fact the recently fired Randy Wittman parrots every night so he can fall asleep wearing a smile.
Bradley Beal, unlike Wittman, will not pay the price for Washington missing the playoffs and subsequently, according to common sense, falling out of the Durant sweepstakes.
Sure, the Wizards might put his restricted free agency on the back burner. They have the right to match any offer he receives from rival suitors, and his cap hold will sit below the max salary he's guaranteed, at $14.2 million, until he puts pen to paper on his new deal. Waiting to hammer out an agreement creates additional wiggle room the Wizards can apply to other free-agency pursuits.
Then, when they've been rejected by Durant and settled on a contingency acquisition(s), they can go over the cap to re-sign Beal. That's why they didn't sign him to an extension this past fall.
Beal can throw a wrench in these plans if he decides to shop around and accept another offer at free agency's inception, before Washington has an opportunity to pitch other players. But that only happens if he's trying to coax the Wizards into letting him go. And he doesn't sound like someone who wants to switch locales.
"I want to be here,” Beal said of his restricted free-agency plans, per the Washington Post's Jorge Castillo. “I don’t even know what I’m getting into right now. It’s like choosing colleges again. But I’m happy where I am."
The Wizards could still sour on offering Beal max money. But he is just the fifth player in NBA history to average 16 points and three assists per game while burying 39 percent of his treys through his first four seasons. He remains their best chance at securing a superstar complement for John Wall. Plus, if they don't fork over a max deal, another team will.
Jordan Clarkson, Los Angeles Lakers
4 of 8
Age: 23
Free-Agency Status: Restricted
2015-16 Per-Game Stats: 15.5 points, 4.0 rebounds, 2.4 assists, 1.1 steals, 43.3 percent shooting
Jordan Clarkson should just assign every contact in his cellphone a cash register ring tone. (Except D'Angelo Russell. He gets Darth Vader's theme song.)
Not even the Los Angeles Lakers' franchise-worst, all-for-Kobe-Bryant season could crimp his rising value. He still can't defend the three-point line—or anything else, for that matter—but has started rounding into a polished combo guard who can play on or off the ball.
Clarkson improved his outside shooting amid increased volume as a sophomore, sinking an almost-average 34.7 percent of his three-balls. His assist rate plummeted, but that tends to happen when you play more 2-guard and can only defer to members of a bottom-two offense.
Lou Williams was the lone Laker who added more points per 100 possessions to Los Angeles' cause than Clarkson, according to NBA Math. That he ranked as an above-average offensive player at all, given the state of the Lakers, is impressive, lending further merit to his breakout rookie crusade in 2014-15.
And as CBS Sports' Matt Moore wrote, it's this potential that might lead to an aggressive bidding war:
"If the official signing period opens and a team comes out with a heavy offer for Clarkson while the Lakers are still waiting on another free agent, they could be in a bind trying to match his offer during the three-day waiting period. There's a good chance Durant will have made up his mind by then, or that the Lakers could match an offer, but don't be surprised if someone tries to steal him away.
"
Restricted free agents are inherently pricey because incumbent squads typically match any reasonable deals. Clarkson is a prime candidate to parlay his youth and strong contract year into a pile of cash the Lakers will not match—irrespective of whether they're still chasing higher-profile names.
Seth Curry, Sacramento Kings
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Age: 25
Free-Agency Status: Restricted
2015-16 Per-Game Stats: 6.8 points, 1.4 rebounds, 1.5 assists, 0.5 steals, 45.5 percent shooting
Seth Curry caught fire at the right time.
After inexplicably chaining him to the bench for most of the season, the Kings turned their 6'2" bazooka loose near the finish line. Over the team's final 11 games, he averaged 15.2 points and 3.8 assists while shooting 46.8 percent from the field, including 48.4 percent from downtown.
Such small samples clearly can't be considered sustainable without further investigation. But Curry drained 45 percent of his threes for the season, displaying the kind of shot creation and playmaking that warrant everyday spin in an NBA rotation.
Brother Stephen Curry and J.J. Redick, in fact, were the only two players to rival Seth's outside accuracy in similar volume. And speaking of convenient familial ties, it certainly doesn't hurt Seth that his MVS (most valuable sibling) pretty much reinvented the game of basketball.
Brandishing comparable flamethrowers for arms, even if briefly, gives him unique appeal at the negotiating table. Steph's impending free agency does the same.
Can't you already see Houston Rockets general manager Daryl Morey throwing Seth a multiyear contract even Sacramento won't match, just so he can sell Steph on Texas living in 2017?
Evan Fournier, Orlando Magic
6 of 8
Age: 23
Free-Agency Status: Restricted
2015-16 Per-Game Stats: 15.4 points, 2.8 rebounds, 2.7 assists, 1.2 steals, 46.2 percent shooting
Just three other players aside from Evan Fournier closed out the season averaging 17 points and three assists per 36 minutes while swishing 40 percent of their deep balls: Stephen Curry, C.J. McCollum and Jeff Teague—two All-Stars and a fast-surging stud.
Fournier left an impression on the rest of the NBA, and Philip Rossman-Reich expanded on his impact for Orlando Magic Daily:
"Fournier is not an All Star, not by any means. But on a team with so many inconsistent options and no clear-cut guy, Fournier became an important cog. Someone the team would have to count on for his shooting and the occasional big game. If that is what the defense dictated.
He was not spectacular or other worldly in any one area, but was very good in several. The Magic could consistently rely on him for good defense, good shooting and playing largely within himself. And when he was asked to play out of position, he used his speed to his advantage to pick up his scoring and did his best to be physical with bigger defenders.
"
To be clear, Fournier isn't in the same general class as his statistical peers. The Magic's offensive and defensive efficiency dipped with him on the court, and it's not yet apparent if, at 6'7", he has the mobility to hang with opposing 2s and 3s for 30-plus minutes every night.
Still, this was just the second season he found consistent playing time. He has the offensive versatility to function as a featured option or complementary spot-up weapon, and his defensive chops will hold more weight for a team that, unlike the Magic, doesn't need to mask shoddy rim protection.
Orlando's decision to ditch Tobias Harris ahead of the trade deadline might end up paving the way for Fournier's return. And yet, while the Magic can match any offer sheet he signs, they may not want to. Said offer sheet is bound to be that expensive.
Jon Leuer, Phoenix Suns
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Age: 26
Free-Agency Status: Unrestricted
2015-16 Per-Game Stats: 8.5 points, 5.6 rebounds, 1.1 assists, 0.6 steals, 48.1 percent shooting
Imagine a world in which Jon Leuer gets paid like the 2015-16 version of Ryan Anderson ($8.5 million). On second thought, put your imagination to rest. You're already living in that world.
Size-starved teams will gladly break open the piggy bank, within reason, for a young(ish) big who can stroke threes and hold his own at the center slot. Leuer spent more than 40 percent of his minutes at the 5 with the Phoenix Suns while canning 38.2 percent of his three-pointers.
And his value as a rim protector was right in line with Alex Len's performance; they both held opponents to just under 51 percent shooting around the iron.
Seeing less than 20 minutes per game will prevent Leuer from fielding any armored truck-dependent offers. This season marked the first time of his five-year career that he eclipsed 1,000 total minutes, and his efforts came as a representative for a 23-win tire fire.
But small-burst excellence can pay. And as the first player since Kevin Love in 2010-11 to average 16 points and 10 rebounds per 36 minutes while shooting 38 percent from distance on at least 100 attempts, Leuer is about to find out how much.
Lance Thomas, New York Knicks
8 of 8
Age: 28
Free-Agency Status: Unrestricted
2015-16 Per-Game Stats: 8.2 points, 2.2 rebounds, 0.9 assists, 0.4 steals, 44.2 percent shooting
Few of Lance Thomas' numbers truly stand out. But he emerged as a reliable three-and-D weapon the New York Knicks, serving as a two-way impetus who helped prop up their fleeting flirtation with playoff contention.
With New York frequently pinning him to the opposition's best perimeter scorer, Thomas held rivals to under 42 percent shooting overall and a sub-32 percent clip from beyond the arc. His own 40.4 percent display from three-point land was a career high, and he was even more efficient as a catch-and-shoot gunner.
Thomas also posted a team-best net rating among running mates who appeared in 20 or more games. The Knicks were still outscored by 0.1 points per 100 possessions when he was in the game, but that would have been good enough for fringe postseason status. The minus-4.2 they notched without him would have ranked 26th in the league.
Put another way: Thomas' wallet shouldn't feel the wrath of missing New York's final 18 games with a sprained MCL in his left knee. He can be a valuable piece of a quality basketball team, and his next contract will reflect as much—if not more.
Stats courtesy of Basketball-Reference.com and NBA.com.
Dan Favale covers the NBA for Bleacher Report. Follow him on Twitter, @danfavale.
